It appears NSN TA’s from the most recent referral batch began arriving earlier in the week.

An agency has also reported to its clients about a new computer system for the CCCWA. The CCCWA will apparently halt all activity from May 24th to May 31st while data is being transferred and staff is trained. The projected referral window begins May 23rd, however, with TA’s arriving so early there’s hope the next group of referrals will arrive before they close for the week.

It appears both the NSN and SN programs will be affected. During the week they are shut down, agencies will not be able to send in new dossiers or letters of intent, lock in children’s files, etc.

It is expected some of the procedures will change once the new system is in place, but agencies haven’t yet been given details.

One agency has been told the special focus program in particular will change with the new system and new routine as of June 1st, but was given no details.

In other news, it appears the consulate will reopen Friday. The site says they’ve been in contact with the affected adoptive families and will reach out to each family to expedite visa processing.

No one with a referral posted their blog in the comments. That’s two months in a row with no Babies!!! post.

The first chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.

I have not yet added the new poll into the weighted average figure, and won’t until I can see how well it may function as a predictor.

Unfortunately, if we have one more month of numbers this low I’ll need to add another column.

Next, we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections — the X shows where the actual referrals fell. In those cases where I’ve added a new column and things would have looked different had that column been in place at the time, I’ve used a ~ to show where they would have fallen on the new column.

As you can see, I’ve been short two months in a row. I was only short by one day last month, but the difference this month has me worried I’ll need to add another column next month.

Here are the projections:

If I’d added a new column, the next three batches would’ve likely been October 28, November 6, and November 10.

You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.

I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCCWA continuing to do what they’ve been doing. There’s no way of knowing if they’ll continue to follow recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.

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The last 12 referral batches arrived at 28, 32, 24, 27, 37, 32, 31, 35, 27, 35 and 25 day intervals.

The shortest time frame is 24 days, the longest is 38. We see 27, 32, and 35 twice.

The average over the last year is 31 the median is 32. If we throw out the two highest and lowest the average is 31 and the median 32. If we look at the last six months… 31 and 27. The past three months is 29 and 27.

Looking at the numbers, the soonest we’d expect to see them this month would be Thursday, May 23, the latest would be Thursday, June 06. The most likely date of arrival, based on the numbers, is Tuesday, May 28.

My laptop died and the new one has Windows 8. I won’t say bad things about it until I’ve had time to actually learn it. Uggg. At any rate, I can’t do any analysis until I get all of my programs installed.

I’ve seen people reporting phone calls, but I’m not clear if they are from this batch, or people with issues from earlier batches.

If you’re expecting a referral this time around, or you’ve just received a referral, or you’re in another program and want to share your news, please list blog name and blog URL in the comments so we can have a Babies!!! post this month.

Four agencies are reporting the cut-off as October 26th on their websites. I’m going to have to give this one an R5, even though I really, really, don’t want to.

There are also rumors that some agencies have received all boy referrals in recent months, even for families who requested a girl. So far, it’s unknown as to whether those who turned down the referral to request a girl will receive another referral.

Honestly, it seems to me China is doing everything they can to convince people to get out of line. I feel so bad for those of you caught up in this and in limbo.

A European website claims the CCCWA website has the cutoff as 10/26.

If this turns out to be the case, it will be very disappointing, and a super tiny batch.

UPDATE: A European forum posting states their agency has posted “via social media” the cut-off is the 26th. I can’t find a Facebook or Twitter page for the agency, so I can’t verify.