I’m not seeing any announcements from anyone that they were matched. I had planned to do a When post for the next list today, but if the one that was supposed to come out last night did not, then that would be jumping the gun.

Several agencies are reporting that the CCAA has changed their internal box to show that files through April 30, 2008 have been reviewed.

The Histories page is updated.

And if you haven’t checked out the Babies!!! post in a while, there are more pictures!

Sometimes it’s easier to explain my projections by showing the actual poll numbers. To the left you’ll see the numbers from the poll that ended 11/02/08. I’m using an older poll so you can see more history – if we use a newer poll there isn’t as much history to see.

Each color band represents one batch. As you can see, the days we are heading into do not have as many people logged in as the days we’ve just made it through. That’s why I’m projecting that we’ll get through more days. If the CCAA is referring what they can, then we should see them get through more days. If they are just trying to hold it to a few LID days each month, then we won’t.

I’m not saying we will get to the 11th. I’m projecting what the CCAA should be able to reasonably do, based on past performance. Reasonably, they should be able to make it to the 11th. We all know that reasonable is not a word used very much in this process though, right?

Our polls represent a percentage of worldwide numbers – we get people registering their LID from all over the world. To get a truer picture, you need to look at all three polls side by side, as my formula takes all three polls into consideration. But, this should give a basic idea of what I’m trying to convey.

Hopefully, this chart will help people understand why my projection is that it’s possible for the CCAA to refer through the 11th of April. I am not projecting an increase in number of babies referred, I’m merely making note of the fact that we’re headed into days without as many people logged in.

Will it happen? I have no idea. But if they are going to do this based on number of referrals, they should be able to get that far.

 

The first chart (below) shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.

As you can see, this was a rather large batch when compared to recent batches. Especially when you realize that some of the recent batches were spread out so far, so that two batches came in the amount of time we would have expected to receive three batches.

Some people have been saying it was time for me to create another column. I really hope we don’t have to do that, and as of now I don’t see the need.

Next we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections.

Here are my projections:

The big question right now is whether the CCAA is doing this based on number of dossiers, or based on number of calendar days referred at a time. I believe that the next referral batch will begin to give us an idea about that.

You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking on the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.

I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.

The New Shared list is supposed to come out on the 8th – that will be Sunday night for us Americans.

Just looking at my latest When post for the SN shared list, I think this comes out three days sooner than the earliest (for the past year).

Good luck to everyone hoping to be matched on this list!

And hopefully the CCAA has taken steps to improve a few things.

(Give me just a bit more time and I’ll get the Projections post up.)

The last 12 referral batches arrived at 18, 24, 39, 32, 47, 30, 32, 31, 52, 51, 27, and 34 day intervals.

The average is 35 days, and the median is 32 days. The shortest interval is 18 days and the longest is 52.

If we were to look purely at numbers then the soonest we’d expect to see referrals would be Friday, February 19; the latest would be Thursday, March 25; and the most likely date would be Monday, March 8. But this month we also need to take CNY into consideration.

It is my understanding that government workers are off from February 13-19, but then most must work the weekend days of either February 20 and 21 or 27 and 28. That effectively just gives them three business days they aren’t working, since they have to make two of their days up. Could they send referrals out on the 19th to arrive on the 22nd? Yes, it’s in the realm of the possible, since that would actually be a slightly longer interval than the shortest interval. Will they? I have no idea. It could be that since they only spend about a week (or less) on the actual matching process now that the way CNY falls won’t affect their process. I honestly have no idea.

Tomorrow we’ll look at the projections to see what the next cut off is likely to be if the CCAA is doing referrals based on how many referrals they can do in a month and not just putting out two to four days every month. The next few months will give us a good idea about that, since there are so few people logged in (comparatively) for most of the rest of April. If they are going to keep referring about the same number of babies then we should jump through a good number of days in the next three or four months. If they are just going to refer two to four days a month no matter what then, well, that will be terribly disappointing. To put it mildly.