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Nothing yet

September 23rd, 2013

I’m hoping we see referrals this week or early next week — before the holiday, instead of after.

However, I don’t see any rumors yet.

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Projections

September 4th, 2013

The first chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.
090113PollNumberHistory

I’ve considered the July batch to be two months in the yearly, six month, and three month averages. Also, the new poll isn’t figured into the weighted average figure, as we really need a few ‘normal’ months (in terms of time span) before I can get a handle on how the new poll fits.

Next, we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections — the X shows where the actual referrals fell. In those cases where I’ve added a new column and things would have looked different had that column been in place at the time, I’ve used a ~ to show where they would have fallen on the new column.

090113-GoodBadHistory

Based on the wait between batches, I’d hoped we’d see number equal to 1.5 months of projections… but sadly, they were only one day above the projections.

Here are the projections:

Oct-Nov2006

090113Projections
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

I have no idea when the next batch will arrive, and it may be better to number them in the future, rather than try to guess months. We’ll see if the CCCWA continues to be as erratic as they have since April, but I hope they find some consistency once again.

You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.

I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCCWA continuing to do what they’ve been doing. There’s no way of knowing if they’ll continue to follow recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.

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When

September 3rd, 2013

What’s up with the CCCWA? Why are they taking so long between batches? Is this truly a computer thing, or yet another way to slow the program?

If it’s truly been a computer thing we should see them come out in another 28 or so days, meaning we should expect them sometime around Monday, September 30th, with the earliest being September 22nd and the latest October 6th.

However, if we’re seeing a new trend then the average and median over the past six months is 41 and 35, and over the past three months is 49 and 45. The latest we should expect to see them would be Thursday November 14th, and the most likely date turns out to be Tuesday October 8th.

When will they arrive? Only time will tell. As always.

Babies!!!

August 31st, 2013

Congrats to the families included in this month’s phone calls!

Here are the families with a referral this month, or who are in another program and want to share their happy news:

If you’re expecting a referral this time around, or you’re in another program and want to share your news, please list blog name and blog URL in the comments.

Congrats again, to everyone bringing a new member into their family!

November 10th

August 30th, 2013

Looks like phone calls began yesterday. Congrats to those families included in this batch.

Unfortunately, this batch pretty much confirms the new column was necessary.

To make matters worse, there were 45 days between batches. The last phone calls fell on 4/29 and 7/15, which is three referral batches in 122 days. If the next phone calls happen thirty days from now (which may be wishful thinking) then it will have been four batches in 152 days, when we’d have expected to see five.

If anyone would like to share your news (whether you’re in the NSN program, the SN program, or adopting from another program entirely) please let us know the blog name and blog URL in the comments.

Quiet

August 26th, 2013

I don’t see any new rumors this morning.

Anyone have a magical cure for poison ivy? Besides topical Benadryl?