The last 12 referral batches arrived at 32, 31, 32, 28, 38, 28, 35, 22, 27, 37, 36, and 18 days.

The average is 30 days, the median is 32. We see 28 twice as well as 32.

If this were a normal month then the soonest we would expect to see them would be Friday January 16, the latest would be Thursday, February 5 and the most likely would be Wednesday, January 28.

However, this isn’t a normal month. I don’t know for sure when the CCAA’s last day before leaving for CNY will be, but I’m guessing it’s likely to be January 23rd. If they mail them on the 23rd then we should begin seeing them on January 26. So, I believe that the 26th is the most likely date.

As I look at the new column labels on my projections, I have to wonder how things are going to look at the end of this year. I would love to see the marks in the second chart below start heading back towards what was projected in previous years. And I desperately hope that I don’t have to make another column.

This first chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that you can’t compare numbers from different polls. Each poll has to stand by itself. Still, you can get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone.

Also, you can see that this referral was a decent amount bigger than the last three batches. We should keep in mind that the last couple of batches have included some expedited familes… but I don’t think there were that many expedited families.

Next we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections.

And finally, here are my projections.

And to end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.

Happy New Year everyone!!!!!

And to all of the families included in this batch, a great big huge Congrats! to you!!!!!

Our family did the game night thing last night, with white grape juice for the kiddos and adult beverages for mom and dad, and fingerfoods fit for a party. We finally got to spend a good amount of time playing Blokus and we loved it. It says for ages five and up, but TT held her own at it and even managed to have less pieces at the end than GG a few times. She even came close to having less than RK once. TT picked up that “corners only” thing a lot easier than GG did, we kept having to tell GG that her move wasn’t allowed, but only had to tell TT a few times.

We also played Candy Land and Chutes and Ladders a few times, not my favorite games, but the girls enjoy them. GG is technically too old for them, but I guess she’s just played them for so long she doesn’t realize it. Or maybe it’s that she has fun helping GG. Either way, both girls enjoy these games, so I keep my own thoughts to myself and try to play nice.

Oh, and Bananagrams (TT played with her Tinkertoys while we played this one, though). We play a modified version of it, since the real rules have everyone playing as fast as possible, not taking turns. That doesn’t work so good when you’re playing with a child, so we take turns, but play the rest of the rules the same. I like Bananagrams better than Scrabble when playing with GG because there are no points to keep track of, no double or triple anythings to try to strategize with, and she can plan her next word without someone using that space (in Bananagrams each person plays their own space in front of them, it’s not a shared board). And yet, she gets the practice of looking at letters and making words. And since everyone’s letters are visible, when she’s stumped I give clues about what she can play, though she still has to figure it out herself. In Bananagrams it’s about who gets rid of their letters first (with creative rules so you have to pull more letters out of the available letters here and there), it’s not about who makes the best words or has the most points. If you play without taking turns then it’s actually a lot more fun, but… like I said, works better with kids if you take turns.

We even played some card games: One more one less, Go Fish, Old Maid, etc. If you are looking for some more card games to play with kids, this site has a list of them with the rules for each game.

TT became completely unreasonable about 8:30 and was herded off to bed (yes, there will be a post about her bedroom soon. Things went so well I was afraid of jinxing things by reporting them, but it’s been a week now, so I’ll report that things have gone miraculously well.) After TT went to bed we played a few more games with GG and then watched a movie before turning the TV to watch some of the New Year’s programming and then watch the ball drop. One humorous part of the evening: while the movie was on RK grabbed the deck of cards and laid out the pattern for Solitaire and GG practically freaked that you can play the “computer game” without the computer. RK then spent some time teaching her how to lay it out and letting her play it the old fashioned way. Too funny.

Now, a few comments about referrals. First, we have a whole lot of people on the Babies!!! post this month, and that warms my heart. It’s wonderful to see so many families being formed. Kids who need parents and parents who need kids… matched together. Makes me cry happy tears.

The last couple of batches have had some expedited referrals included, but I do not believe that this batch included any expedited families. If I’m wrong about that I’m sure someone will correct me.

I have confirmation from several agencies that the CCAA internal box still only shows 2/28/07 is through the review room. Several agencies know that their later clients are through review (March and in at least one case, April), but apparently all reviewers have not made it all of the way through March yet. If you don’t understand this, you might want to check out the links in the Important Posts section to the right, especially the post explaining how the review room works.

Once again, Happy New Year to everyone out there!!!!

The following blogs have pictures!

The following families have their referral (no picture yet):

The following families are expecting a referral in this batch

The following families are adopting from other programs and would like to share their news:

The following sites have music and are not work safe:
Angels Brought Me Here
Baby Kanable
Vachina Monologues
Lucy in ‘09

If you are expecting a referral in this batch and would like your blog included please give the name and URL of your blog in the comments to this post.

I’m told that referral phone calls are being made this morning in Europe.

I’ll put the Babies! post up later today. If you are expecting a referral in this batch and would like your blog listed then please put the blog name and blog url in the comments to this post.

Congrats to the all of the families who will soon see your child’s face for the first time!

Enough agencies are now saying that the cut off is the 28th that I’m going to move it to an R4.

 
Hopefully we’ll hear from agencies later whether they have something on the way to them or not. If referrals arrive today then I feel pretty comfortable saying we’ll likely see another batch just before they break for their CNY holiday.