Two more items
First comes word from an agency that the CCAA has not yet started matching.
And second, I have the source for the July LID’s getting referrals in October. One of the big China only agencies, usually pretty reliable. I’m told that they usually give out two sets of predictions, a more positive one and a more bleak one. This time they only gave the bleak one, and they went out six months with the final one showing July 20 through July 31st getting their referral in October. Apparently some late August people have been told privately by this agency that it could be December or January for them. Apparently they also point out that this is based a lot on how past months have gone and they do not know what the CCAA will actually do.
May 16th, 2006 at 11:40 am
If I look at the last six months of referrals it averages out to 11 days of LID’s per month. If we try to project based on that then we may as well say each month will take three months. So, two more months for June, three months for July. That would put the end of July in October.
So if this agency is strictly using the past six months as a barometer for the next six months then that’s what they’d get.
This is a large agency, I’d love to know what happens if they try to project based on number of LID’s per month. I wish we had good poll numbers going back farther so we could do it ourselves.
If we look at things based on our current poll numbers things do not seem so bleak.
Still, if this weren’t our second adoption we would have likely changed countries by now. I know of four people who have changed countries in the past three months, and all four of them now have pictures to look at.
I want both of our girls to share the same heritage though, so we’re kind of stuck.
May 16th, 2006 at 11:41 am
RQ, did you mean July 20-July 31 in October? You wrote June, and being a June 24 LID, I’m hoping it was a typo! (Though either way, it’s not great news)
May 16th, 2006 at 11:41 am
You’ve got to be kidding me? Seven months to complete June? That’s processing no more than 4 days a month.
Then they’re predicting a massive catch up of July and August in the following three months - of which includes the infamous gargantuane month of November?
Bah.
May 16th, 2006 at 11:41 am
yeah i got that info yesterday as well and noticed they used only the ‘bleak’ prediction. Once again I think it goes back to the agencies using ‘worst-case’ or not saying much at all so not to get everyone’s hopes up. I respect that as I’d rather see agencies tell their families to expect the possiblity of things dragging out more than to tell them what they want to hear and it not happen. We can do our own hoping and getting disappointed without the agencies help. hehe ;)
May 16th, 2006 at 11:44 am
Yeah - I said July in the first paragraph and then June in the next one - hope most of ya’ll figured out it was a typo. I changed it, thanks for pointing it out to me.
May 16th, 2006 at 11:47 am
there’s just something deep down that makes me believe that the kind of a one week or so per month matching WILL NOT HAPPEN. Will there be times when they only match about 4 or 5 days one month? yes it’s happened before. Will it be like that every month for how ever long though? I just can’t see it happening.
Like impatientmama says. BAH!
May 16th, 2006 at 12:21 pm
What souce is providing some agencies with these timeframes and why some agencies and not all?
May 16th, 2006 at 1:29 pm
I don’t know, all I can figure out is that alot of the agencies are still keeping the 11 to 12 mos. time frame. I don’t know what big agency is stating the July referrals won’t be until Oct., but I don’t believe it. Also, our agency said that they would keep us post if they thought there would be a substantial increase, and there hasn’t (yet)! So, I would just keep an eye on what happens at the the end of the month. (it feels as though I’m tracking the stock market-(sorry about the comparison) with all these polls)…. And, that’s a good thing -because the polls do give us a good indication. If the CCAA does get through 2 weeks, then, we know at least we are hopefully getting back on the right track. The only question I have is, I thought awhile back, one of your sources said that the CCAA had already moved? And, now we find out they haven’t??? How come the move is so difficult to confirm, especially, when the agencies have pp over in Bejing and should be able to confirm or not - And, if they haven’t moved - then, I just don’t want to think about all the delays that could happen…….And, to think my LID is 2/06… Yikes..
May 16th, 2006 at 1:37 pm
I don’t really think that the number of days in a referral period has anything to do with the number of referrals being processed each month. I have looked at my agencies (big China only) referral numbers and it seems that prior to November the average referrals per month was around 105. Since November the average has been about 41 referrals per month. This information is for one agency only but I would like to know if the total number of referrals per month has decreased by 61% or has is the CCAA still doing the same number of referrals just more spread out over many different agencies?
May 16th, 2006 at 1:41 pm
All of the information I’m seeing points to the CCAA doing somewhere between one third to one half of the referrals they were doing during the first part of last year.
They are referring less babies. A lot less babies.
May 16th, 2006 at 1:51 pm
Wait, wait, wait.
In my panic of seeing that October date I didn’t quite let your first sentence absorb.
The agency that said the CCAA hasn’t begun matching May’s referral batch yet, is this a reputable agency?
May 16th, 2006 at 2:01 pm
Having been told that little statement about the CCAA “not going to increase the amount of children being processed each month” and what you’re saying leads me to believe they are trimming the amount of babies they’re referring each month which in turn has created the “increase in Dossiers from families vs. amount of children to be matched” scenario.
Goes back to something said awhile back about ‘numbers’ game where you have a set amount of children to be matched and if the amount of LIDs to fulfill that covers the span of 5 or 6 days then that’s it for that match group. And if the next month that number is fulfilled by LIDs covering the span of 2 weeks, then that’s it for That match group. I think this is where the polls and those numbers fit into it all.
May 16th, 2006 at 2:34 pm
That’s exactly what the polls are for tgredthread - if they are doing about the same number of referrals per month then our polls will give us a good idea of how far they will get in the coming months.
May 16th, 2006 at 2:44 pm
and that’s why i’m going with those indications…with what they’re pointing to and not the doom and gloom scenarios. :D
May 16th, 2006 at 3:14 pm
S.O.S,
I don’t mean to depress you’ll but am I the only one who is afraid that we won’t get a baby at all????
please can anyone reassure me????
(LID 30 November)
May 16th, 2006 at 3:18 pm
I tried to do an average of 11 day referral thing at a time, working from June 7, and I didn’t get what that big agency got. I got:
June 7-18 end of May
June 19-30 end of June
July 1-11 end of July
July 12-23 end of August
July 24– end of September
RQ, you said that if it takes June two more months to get through (May and June, three total) and July three months to get through (July, August, September) that would take us to the end of October–but it looks like the end of Sept. to me, using this logic. Wouldn’t Oct. then be August referrals? So five months to get through June and July from now, not six? Maybe someone can list out the specific days and referral dates that this agency predicted? Gah, I’m so confused. It’s that math thing.
I’m also trying to figure out what this means for people closer to referral–like late June. The numbers aren’t adding up for me.
Finally: if the CCAA can only refer one week at a time for the next six months, the wait will get astronomical. If late July gets their referrals in late October, and the one week trend continues, we could expect late August in January. That would be a 17 month wait at that point. Then late September would be April. That would be a 19 month wait. Then late October would be July (over a year from now). That would be a 21 month wait. And so on, and so on. The months coming up are, as far as I can tell from the polls, not much smaller than what we’ve seen. I can’t believe the wait will go on this way, because the program would literally fall apart.
If it does have the potential to go this way, I don’t see how agencies can be holding onto this information. My agency, for instance, has said NOTHING about this extended wait, or given any support. (I’ll be switching countries for #2, therefore agencies.) Perhaps agencies can not communicate with the CCAA, for whatever reason, but they can certainly communicate with us. If they see the wait stretching out like this, they need to begin making this clear.
May 16th, 2006 at 3:30 pm
Novary,
I agree that our agencies should be of more help than they are being at the moment. Besides, if we are facing an over 20 months wait, then we should be informed about it so that we can decide on what to do. I chose China mainly because the waiting time was brief. My father is 81 and I want my daughter to know her grandfather and viceversa. Time is running against us in that respect. If I knew for sure that the wait will be of 20 months from now, I would swap papers to Ethiopia or Kazakhstan, where there’s almost no waiting list.
And Dutchmomtobe, I wish I could reassure you, but my fears go beyond yours. Not only the delay worries me, but I am also afraid that after all the waiting, many other factors (potential avian flu outbreak, closure of adoption program during olympics…) may keep me away from my daughter. I don’t know. It’s not feeling right…
May 16th, 2006 at 3:34 pm
Does anyone have a thought on why they’ll review a month’s worth of dossiers at a time where they’re only assigning about a weeks worth of referrals? Isn’t that a good sign?
May 16th, 2006 at 3:46 pm
Just to balance that bit of bad news… a person on this same large China only agency’s mail list posted that when they met with the CCAA reps (one from the Match room) they were told that October was in matching during May and that the couple with the December LID could expect to recieve a referral in December.
…
This seems to confirm the 12 months line from CCAA. I hope, I hope… since we are LID September.
May 16th, 2006 at 3:49 pm
gretchen,
I had heard that the ‘review room’ and ‘match room’ operate independant of each other. Therefore whatever procedures they use to review and verify the dossiers takes however long it takes them to do it and has no implication or bearing on the timeframe the ‘match room’ works on. I think someone posted that on here at some time or maybe I read it on another website. So yeah, there’s a big pile of Dossiers in the Match room just waiting to be worked on. ugh.
May 16th, 2006 at 4:00 pm
nov-
I’ve always been going at this in the ‘cautious optimism’ mode…I really believe the speculations of the 12month wait (well, after things level out a little of course) and I believe the idea that most things are pointing towards the CCAA matching more than just a week at a time. And, after reading your post a couple of times and soaking in the words of how the wait time would go out to astronomical numbers based on that notion of matching just a week (if even that) a month at a time…all I can do is laugh at how utterly ridiculous that would be and how any agency, family, or the Chinese government themselves could tolerate that kind of a referral timeframe.
May 16th, 2006 at 4:10 pm
What happened to the rumor of a temp. slow down and things picking up in August????
May 16th, 2006 at 4:11 pm
I really don’t think the wait can extend forever. But didn’t I read a while back that CCAA has to forecast out how many files they need annually? Maybe the wait will continue to escalate through November / December but will be able to come down quickly once CCAA is able to revise the forecast and get more dossiers. Of course, that assumes CCAA can not revise the forecast mid-year. So if the wait does go up (even to 17 months or more) - maybe it can come back down next year if they are able to double up months. This is a complete guess.
May 16th, 2006 at 4:33 pm
Several US agencies are asking their families to write letters to USCIS asking them to make the 171-H valid for 24 months rather than the current 18 months. This is something in our control that could have a positve result in terms of financial expenses of the adoption.
May 16th, 2006 at 4:48 pm
MCEK-
yes our agency is one of those providing a way to do that. It’s actually a volunteer going through the process and has an ‘06 LID who worked something up for our agency. Good to know other agencies are starting to do that as well. We seriously are wanting to adopt a 2nd from China after this (yes, even after all this fun stuff) and that would be a good thing to not have to worry about re-doing that *%&# document regardless of the referral wait time.
May 16th, 2006 at 5:15 pm
I agree with MCEK about writing letters to get an extended timeframe for the I171h. I would suggest you write your local Congress Person or Senator asap(they are the ones that can incite a change with CIS) to get thing going. I think it is all of our best interest to bombard them with this urgent request. Re-newing the I171H is a lot of work and time besides the large expense!!! Lets all get going on this one , this may indeed be something finally in our power to change.
May 16th, 2006 at 5:55 pm
“If I look at the last six months of referrals it averages out to 11 days of LID’s per month. If we try to project based on that then we may as well say each month will take three months. So, two more months for June, three months for July. That would put the end of July in October.”
Yes, RQ, and they aren’t taking in to consideration the time/toll the CCAA move is taking on the process these past few months.