- A non-US agency had discussions with the CCAA in Beijing last week and was told to prepare for a wait of up to 18 months.
- Another non-US agency is telling their people that they expect the wait to continue to increase somewhat before stabilizing. They give no idea as to how long “somewhat” may be.
- Someone with a mid July LID has been told by one of the big US agencies to expect a 16 month wait.
- Another agency has apparently correctly estimated the past two cutoff dates, and they estimate the next cutoff to be through 6/23.
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May 30th, 2006 at 2:58 pm
Instead of focusing of the 18 months, lets focus on the “could get up to 18 months”. Could does not mean will! It means maybe but maybe not! My belief is they are playing it very safe by saying up to 18 months. I would be very suprised if it got that long. China prides itself on the consistance of there adopt process.
May 30th, 2006 at 2:59 pm
Is the agency estimating 6/23 the same one that put that date in their email with possible cut-off dates extended out for a few months? Someone posted about that a few weeks ago. The agency’s prediction for May was 6/15 and then 6/13 for June. Is it that agency, or a different one?
And either way, does this agency have any 6/24 lids? Desperate, exhausted, seriously depressed 6/24 lids like me want to know. Thanks.
May 30th, 2006 at 3:02 pm
It appears the wait will definately be increasing to 18 months. Now I will spend my days wondering which LIDs will have to wait 18 months. Our LID is 2/14.
May 30th, 2006 at 3:40 pm
the 6/23 date seems more in-line with what my agency was “predicting” if the referral wait time were to stay at this same pace. It bounces around from 5 days to 8 days throughout and that’s where we were getting our possible “worst-case” referral time for December (we have an 8.10 LID). Although I’d love to see things pick up more…the June referral group going to 6/23 seems to be the rumour with the best chance of ‘not’ being a rumour. :(
May 30th, 2006 at 3:44 pm
but…
don’t we get to have some good karma? don’t we all get a break here sometime? surely this funeral procession pace of matches can’t go on much longer! Throw us a fricken’ bone here CCAA!!!! :D
May 30th, 2006 at 3:51 pm
I’m with you tgred - LOL at the rate their going, they are throwing bone fragments! Anyway, just curious RQ the agency predicting the 06/23 cutoff if they are the ones who seem to be in the know, did they mention WHEN the next batch would be coming? If they are already telling the cut off, perhaps they can also “guess” how soon they will come? It might be that referrals will come in smaller amounts but possibly more often????? Just grasping for something remotely positive here!
May 30th, 2006 at 4:06 pm
Hey tgred and oscar !!! You two seem to ask and comment on exactly what I am thinking. Thanks. What’s your thoughts, RQ and welcome back. lid~08-08-05
May 30th, 2006 at 4:16 pm
jfkof3-
8/8 LID? sweet. we’re in the same boat then. (not the titanic i hope) although i’ve toyed with the idea that they could do a cut off of 8/8 or 8/9 and we’d have to wait a month more. then I’d not like you. :) just kidding. Here’s hoping we get through this sooner than later!
May 30th, 2006 at 4:22 pm
Ok guys, I may be just boarding the titanic here! Or riding in the dingy, one of the two! wish I was LID 8/8! I’ll miss you all when you’re gone and I’m still hanging here in 2008! LOL
May 30th, 2006 at 4:31 pm
oh, thought i was the dingy riding in the titanic……
we’ll throw you the big ‘ol lifesaver thingy when we get there oscar1elmo. no worries :)
May 30th, 2006 at 4:32 pm
Sorry, in my email above, I meant to say 6/23 for June, not 6/13 for June.
I’m going to be so, so sad if I miss this one by one day. That will make it 13 months for me.
May 30th, 2006 at 4:45 pm
To echo another poster’s sentiments — is it possible that CCAA is going to be matching more than every month (e.g. every 4.5 to 5 weeks)? We just rec’d news of the May matches on or about May 23, 2006, which was a little on the early side, no? Now, they are already talking about the cut-off for the next set of matches. In my limited experience, right after a group of referrals is announced there is usually a dearth of info/rumors. And yet this time, only a week or so later, they are talking about the cut-off for the next group. This early on, how do they know how far they can match (unless they have selected 6/23 as the cut off date ahead of time and have decided to only match up until that date). Actually, DH’s thought when the “early” May referrals were announced last week was that, while the matches may be for a limited number of days, maybe they would be coming more often. Now, there’s word of a new cut-off already, so maybe this is possible. Does anyone know about matching more often than once per month (or so).
May 30th, 2006 at 5:00 pm
Sunshine,
It has definitely happened in the past. Sometimes they would send out a batch and then another batch 2 weeks later (this was in 2004) and then another batch. It was a very exciting time. I truly believe that things will pick up again in the next few months. I doubt they will ever get it back to the 6 month wait, but I don’t think it will stretch out to 2-4 years based on the current projections (of it taking 3 months to cover one month of dossiers).
May 30th, 2006 at 5:06 pm
Hey there sunshine! (I just had to say that!)
Check at the top of the RQ page, rh column, and under PAGES click on CCAA updates / referrals…. you’ll find all the info posted there….
(Hee-hee! I asked almost the same thingie 2 weeks ago and got this reply! Don’t I feel like an old timer!)
May 30th, 2006 at 5:13 pm
oscar1 and tgred….. you guys eating too many wheaties for breakfast again?
May 30th, 2006 at 5:37 pm
w/ an LID 0f 1-6-06, we originally thought we’d go this summer, then over winter, now it;s looking like next summer! The only good part of that for me is that it would make it super easy to bring my teenager since she’d be out of school. Of course, I would love to go in the winter and deal with the school hassles! : )
May 30th, 2006 at 5:40 pm
I must have missed it when an agency predicted June 23 for the next cut off. Did they predict any farther into the future? Possibly for the July and August LIDs? I’d appreciate it if one of you would share that information with me.
thanks!
May 30th, 2006 at 5:54 pm
Angel — Assuming its the agency i am thinking of, i saw these predictions and it was basically 7-10 days worth of LID dates referred each month, til the Fall.
I read it as: ‘based on how things are going, this is what we could see in the future.’ The way it was worded, it didnt seem that they had any inside knowledge.
Maybe this is wishful thinking.
May 30th, 2006 at 6:03 pm
I talked with my Agency this morning and I said I was concerned with I-171H expiring and she felt I had no worries! I was DTCL 10/13! She felt the wait will not exceed 14 months. She said they are still not 100% sure of what new guidelines are going to be but there is a Rumor of BMI which would be very tough on people who are even just 15-20 pounds overweight. She said that the people who are already logged in, it should not concern them. She doesn’t think CCAA is going to take all the dossiers back and review them again! But she did say it is going to get worse before getting better and for the July & August people they should be writing their Congressman, Senators to get that extension just in case. I have already sent out about 10 letters to them. I know that this expiration may not include some of us but I know people who are at jeopardy and will should all support them and each other. Please write and ask for extensions!
May 30th, 2006 at 6:07 pm
We’re almost at the end of the dossier process & hoping for a late June/early July 06 LID. At this point, an 18-month wait doesn’t sound all that bad to me, as long as it actually evens out at 18 months instead of getting longer & longer with each passing month. If they were to continue taking 3-4 months to refer one month of LIDs, our referral would come in about 4 years!! The uncertainty is killing me, so a firm 18 months sounds almost heavenly.
May 30th, 2006 at 6:08 pm
i’d type up the dates from the ‘predictions’ (based on if things stay at the same rate they are now) from my agency but it may give away the agency. But, it’s basically what Eli is saying. it’s roughly covering anywhere from 5-8 business days worth each month through the next several months through the fall.
And I just extended it out using those same numbers and came up with December as the farthest out month it probably would go for us having a 8.10 LID which would put the wait at roughly 16-16.5 months.
At that rate the end of Aug LIDs would get probably be a 3/07 referral which comes out to 19 months.
It’s hard to believe this will happen really.
May 30th, 2006 at 6:27 pm
Guangzimom & Boots –
Thanks for the info! With an LID 7/26/05 and I-171H exp 12/24, we are so on the cusp of a possible re-do that any and all info is appreciated. I believe I am with the same agency which is making the if-things-stay-the-way-they-are-here’s-what-it’s-looking-like “predictions” and I don’t believe that they are any more than just that (no inside info).
(btw, Boots, I get that all the time, along with: “good day, sunshine,” “you are my sunshine,” “sunshine on my shoulder,” and so on . . ., so feel free to chime in with your own rendition any time!).
May 30th, 2006 at 7:02 pm
I guess I just have to hope that none of this is true to protect myself from going crazy. We waited for 4 years for a domestic adoption that never happened and I was upbeat through most of that. We choose this program because we knew there would be a baby in the end and the shorter wait. I am 36 and it has been 9 years of treatments and waiting. I have to believe that she will come this time. I do think that we will all get our children but that we may just have to wait the 18 months instead of 6 as people did a year ago. I am kicking myself for not doing this sooner to be in that lucky batch of people with the shortest wait. Hang in there, together we will get through this. :)
May 30th, 2006 at 7:10 pm
OH MY GOODNESS! I am full of anxiety and I don’t know what to do with myself! I am LID 6/23 …. DO YOU HEAR ME! I am LID 6/23! I will kiss you through this screen RQ if that rumor is TRUE! I have been protecting my heart from disappointment and trying to tell myself not to expect to be next. With each passing day it is getting harder and harder as the desire to be NEXT is overriding my desire to protect my emotions and sanity. With this rumor it is all out the window and I am going to go crazy in anxiety until that cut off is posted. PLEASE OH PLEASE … LET THIS BE TRUE! Maliah … MOMMY IS COMING …. SHE REALLY IS!
May 30th, 2006 at 8:19 pm
tgredthread- Late Aug LIDS referral in 3/07–OOh my–just head me towards the chocolate and fruity alcoholic drinks :)
Oh wait, if the BMI rumor is true-I better head towards the fruit–but wait, I am already logged in, oh but wait,that poor lady got turned down because of her weight after she was logged in–I AM SO CONFUSED>>Gee-if China puts in all these restrictions, would anyone qualify???
My bigger concern is why some agencies seem to know what these “new” restrictions are and others don’t. Do they all know and they are not sharing? I know some agencies are privileged but if they are telling their customers this already,
that just doesn’t seem right. I realize this is all rumor but wow-they are really all over the place.
May 30th, 2006 at 9:08 pm
The problem with BMI is its WRONG!
My hubby is a weighlifter. If you go just by his weight and height BMI says he is obsese. However, he is almost all muscle and little fat. Okay a little belly but by no means obsese…not even a beer belly. So we would be disqualified based on this superficial index that is inaccurate. Like others, I never planned to be a one-child family and now who knows about the future?
May 30th, 2006 at 9:23 pm
tgread, oscar and boots, thanks for the laugh!!! It’s what i truly needed.
debann and maliahsmom, hang in there…we are honking for you, too.
sunshine, you lit me up (get-it) ha.
wrigsassy, I hope RQ can answer your question. i will be watching.
in my opinion, i believe the CCAA will pick up soooon. you watch you’ll see. lid-08-08-05
May 30th, 2006 at 9:31 pm
So let me try to understand this one…wrigsassys post:
They want us to wait 24 months, to re-pay all the fees that would more than pay for any liposuction to remove the 20 pounds we are overweight according to the bmi calculator, along with not having that drink of wine to calm our nerves, but then we would be considered alcoholics…
But wait, we may all become singles due to not wanting to put up with our spouses stress and anxiety levels-so we may have a longer wait than 24 months if we are single. Don’t forget that homestudy update for $750 and the document fees, divorce dicrees, etc. We then would be lonely waiting in an empty home, so we may want to get a puppy (that may not pass our “updated homestudy poddy training test which would lead to an unhealthy home) During this time and money spent, we may run into a past friend that we knew in high school who was the beer runner and they may turn us into our agencies as having a “past alcohol issueâ€
Then again, we may make it through the wait with a string of our sanity and they may deny us a month before we are to get a referal because we are both too tall….
Sooooo…. adding it all up we may be better off just sitting back as we have all done and watch the rumors come crawling out of the muddy B.S. pond with statements such as “could go to 24 months but no one really knowsâ€
Jeez, I need a glass of wine.
May 30th, 2006 at 9:35 pm
I just want to point out that ‘they’ don’t want us to do anything. I have been reading the china adoption information for about 5 years online, and it is important to remember that there is always a level of hysteria and out of control rumors. I think it is human nature to try to figure out answers, but remember, that doesn’t make what we come up with the right answer. All we really know is that wait times dipped down to an unprecedented 6 months, and now are back at what they generally averaged before that.
Deep breaths, people! Every year there are dire predictions regarding the china adoption program, and most of them are unfounded. Deep breaths!
May 30th, 2006 at 9:44 pm
I spoke with our agency’s Int’l Desk today to find out what they had heard in regards to the “Big 3″ right now… the “Big Announcement”, “weight” and the “wait”.
Weight - They had heard nothing… went through my paperwork and didn’t think there would be a problem. She also mentioned that while our agency had only had one incident where weight was an issue, the couple were both overweight and it took a doctor’s note indicating that they had since then lost quite a bit of weight and they had no trouble on going. My agency also said that they would be pretty surprised if CCAA would go back through dossiers previously ok’d via the review room process. Imentioned the July family and she was stunned.
Wait - They just won’t even try to predict. We are LID 6/29/05 and it’s looking like a 50/50 shot at a referral in either June or most likely July our 12th and 13th month since LID.
The “big announcement”? Our facilitator in Beijing seems to think it has to do with the move and wait times.
This is from an agency RQ has previously dubbed “one of the big ones” on this site.
One final note… my agency acknowledged that things change on a dime and this is based on past experience and current feelings.
May 30th, 2006 at 10:16 pm
Dear Paperwork Preg, any indication on the ‘big announcement’ time table? Will it be this week/next etc. thanks for the insight. lid-08-08-05
May 30th, 2006 at 11:00 pm
jfkof3 -
Sorry… they really don’t know. My agency is very good about telling us what they do know and keeping the speculation to a minimum… often not commenting on rumors. I was pretty surprised I was able to get as much info as I did.
One thing I forgot to mention on the “weight” is that they had heard of a 300lb limit.
May 30th, 2006 at 11:02 pm
Oh and the 300 lb limit was a number being tossed around in their “agency” circles… not from CCAA..as far as they know, there isn’t a limit in place as of right now.
May 30th, 2006 at 11:11 pm
comeonstork… you seriously need a drum kit…. the only mixin’ and chillin’ you get is front of a live mic.
PIJill…. do we get to p-p-push with those deep breaths or what?
jfkof3…. dim, very dim…. (heh!)
Ok, so, brrrrrwa-ha-ha!
Da brain iz goin’ eggie wid all de inpho!
Maybe they should update the BMI to a BrainMassIndex…. see how many of us are clever enough to eke out the truth. Heyyyy….maybe with all our spare time we should invent a BSMI, we could run all official statements and rumours through it and see what’s a stinky flop and what’s not!
(amazing how 18 mos isn’t so nasty lately, eh?)
May 31st, 2006 at 12:18 am
” they estimate the next cutoff to be through 6/23″
Of course, being a 6/16-er, the real question on my mind is, when’s the next batch being sent out?
May 31st, 2006 at 12:37 am
Glad someone finds me amusing! HAHAHA, besides myself! Nite everyone, thanks for another day of interesting chatter, oh, and hey BOOTS-MICHIGAN, no wheaties here! Did I actually sound energetic! Thats funny! have a good one everybody! Oh, just wanted to share, I had a “dream” (seriously did) that CCAA came out with another bath of referrals earlier than expected, and shocked us all! LEts see if it comes through….. ooooooooo
May 31st, 2006 at 7:22 am
Brian Stuy says that Hunan finding ads, which stopped December 2005, started appearing again this April. How long does the babies’ paperwork take before their files make it to the matching room? About seven months? As Hunan really seems to make a significant contribution to numbers, perhaps things will pick up a little come November/December in time for the August 2005 LIDs. That would be about a 16 months wait and it could take a couple more for them to catch up to a month per month.
May 31st, 2006 at 8:44 am
First of all - thanks for the laughs last night, sorely needed. J - I think that the paperwork would arrive at the earliest at CCAA in August/September time frame. That’s based solely on my first daughter (a Hunan girl) who was just at the 6 month mark at referral back in the last great wait. So I’m guessing any pickup would not happen until September / October referrals. Now my fear is that they will actually be getting slower before then. They still were referring children from Hunan in April. If there are no more dossiers from that province and it really was one of the largest provinces for international adoption (which I believe) then we may be getting even less referrals a month (and I REALLY don’t want to believe that). So I’m still looking for a November/ December referral but hoping for October and now preparing for February. Did anyone see any Hunan referrals in this last batch? I didn’t.
May 31st, 2006 at 8:52 am
With a 6/30 LID can I safely assume I’d be in the July refferal batch?
May 31st, 2006 at 8:55 am
Stuy thinks that the Hunan referrals we’ve seen this year were in process pre-December 2005 so it would make sense that they filtered through over the next five-six months then…April, maybe May. So if April babies arrive at the CCAA for September/October, things could pick up faster than I thought. My Worst Case Scenario has July 8-14 being matched during September. A slight speed up might mean that with my 25 July LID I might not have to wait until November. See?! I KNEW I could find something good in here somewhere! Even if the feeling only lasts for about half an hour.
May 31st, 2006 at 11:10 am
HELP!!! Can anyone tell me about renewal of their fingerprints? We are LID 6/28 with prints expiring 8/3. After a lengthy run around from our local BCIS office, I finally got someone on the phone (!) who told me they would not redo our prints until they had either expired, or we had proof of travel. I explained that by the time we have our travel dates, there may not be much time to do the prints and get the approval. I was told they don’t redo the prints w/o proof of travel in the event we don’t travel (!) to which I replied that would only be the case if the adoption completely fell apart. I explained the stress of all of this and wanting to at least take care of this detail while we have the time. So someone is supposed to call me back (HA!) and I was hoping someone has some advice for me. Thanks
May 31st, 2006 at 11:13 am
since i’m clueless in this regards…somebody please let me know how big of an impact Hunan orphanage referrals have on the overall referral process. I’ve seen somewhere that it only accounts for a smaller percentage of the matches, but some times it sounds like they make up a big percentage of the matches.
The thing I’m curious about, and of course this is pure speculation, is that there’s been rumours/speculations that the wait time will go to 16 months…18 months…even as high as 24 months. We are currently sitting at about the 12-13 month timeframe. I’ve also seen several times where the CCAA has flat out said that the wait time would NEVER go beyond 24 months. I’ve also seen several times where the CCAA is wanting to keep things at or around 12 months for a referral wait time. What ‘bothers’ me about all this is that at the current match time frame (based on the past few months and also what my agency ‘predicts’ based on the current rate) by the time they get to us with an 8.10 LID it would be Dec. which would be 16-16.5 months like I had mentioned. And also like I referred to on the earlier post, a late late August LID wouldn’t probably get matched until 3/07 which hits the 19 month time frame. They’d get to the 24 month thing after finishing Sept and into October LIDS. So if those out there saying 16-18month wait time…it won’t take long to reach it at the current rate.
This is what confuses me. How would it get to that and then all of a sudden come back down again. From what I understand Nov ‘05 has ALOT of LIDS. Does the Hunan orphanages have that kind of an impact to where they would speed things up in the middle of matching July LIDs? (once again going on the assumption that they are only matching about 5-8 days each month)
May 31st, 2006 at 4:22 pm
They can make up time by doing more than one referral per month. As I mentioned previously on this site, back in 2004 the etimated time frame was 8-10 months and ended up being 6. The CCAA surprised everyone by periodically doing referrals twice a month. When the whole weight topic came up it was because (correct me if I’m wrong) that a woman with a mid July LID was denied in the match room. If this is the case, the CCAA has already matched an entire month since the last batch of referrals. Am I imagining this or was that the scenario?
May 31st, 2006 at 4:41 pm
guangximom - it was no surprise when they caught up before. Everyone knew exactly when the catch up would happen - when they started working on the quota months.
If they had put a quota into place in July of last year then we could be pretty sure that they would start doubleing months when they got to the July people. But they did not.
Also, I have not seen any information that they were matching the poor woman who was denied based on weight. She was in the matching room, true.. but then so is everyone up to September 30th. Just because you’re in the room it does not mean you’ve been matched.