Comments on: More depressing rumors http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/ Join the Rumor Queen as she looks for the latest rumors and then analyzes them, trying to figure out what the CCAA will do next. Tue, 06 Jan 2009 13:42:43 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: RumorQueen http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1593 RumorQueen Wed, 31 May 2006 20:41:16 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1593 guangximom - it was no surprise when they caught up before. Everyone knew exactly when the catch up would happen - when they started working on the quota months. If they had put a quota into place in July of last year then we could be pretty sure that they would start doubleing months when they got to the July people. But they did not. Also, I have not seen any information that they were matching the poor woman who was denied based on weight. She was in the matching room, true.. but then so is everyone up to September 30th. Just because you're in the room it does not mean you've been matched. guangximom - it was no surprise when they caught up before. Everyone knew exactly when the catch up would happen - when they started working on the quota months.

If they had put a quota into place in July of last year then we could be pretty sure that they would start doubleing months when they got to the July people. But they did not.

Also, I have not seen any information that they were matching the poor woman who was denied based on weight. She was in the matching room, true.. but then so is everyone up to September 30th. Just because you’re in the room it does not mean you’ve been matched.

]]> By: guangximom http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1586 guangximom Wed, 31 May 2006 20:22:46 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1586 They can make up time by doing more than one referral per month. As I mentioned previously on this site, back in 2004 the etimated time frame was 8-10 months and ended up being 6. The CCAA surprised everyone by periodically doing referrals twice a month. When the whole weight topic came up it was because (correct me if I'm wrong) that a woman with a mid July LID was denied in the match room. If this is the case, the CCAA has already matched an entire month since the last batch of referrals. Am I imagining this or was that the scenario? They can make up time by doing more than one referral per month. As I mentioned previously on this site, back in 2004 the etimated time frame was 8-10 months and ended up being 6. The CCAA surprised everyone by periodically doing referrals twice a month. When the whole weight topic came up it was because (correct me if I’m wrong) that a woman with a mid July LID was denied in the match room. If this is the case, the CCAA has already matched an entire month since the last batch of referrals. Am I imagining this or was that the scenario?

]]> By: tgredthread http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1527 tgredthread Wed, 31 May 2006 15:13:13 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1527 since i'm clueless in this regards...somebody please let me know how big of an impact Hunan orphanage referrals have on the overall referral process. I've seen somewhere that it only accounts for a smaller percentage of the matches, but some times it sounds like they make up a big percentage of the matches. The thing I'm curious about, and of course this is pure speculation, is that there's been rumours/speculations that the wait time will go to 16 months...18 months...even as high as 24 months. We are currently sitting at about the 12-13 month timeframe. I've also seen several times where the CCAA has flat out said that the wait time would NEVER go beyond 24 months. I've also seen several times where the CCAA is wanting to keep things at or around 12 months for a referral wait time. What 'bothers' me about all this is that at the current match time frame (based on the past few months and also what my agency 'predicts' based on the current rate) by the time they get to us with an 8.10 LID it would be Dec. which would be 16-16.5 months like I had mentioned. And also like I referred to on the earlier post, a late late August LID wouldn't probably get matched until 3/07 which hits the 19 month time frame. They'd get to the 24 month thing after finishing Sept and into October LIDS. So if those out there saying 16-18month wait time...it won't take long to reach it at the current rate. This is what confuses me. How would it get to that and then all of a sudden come back down again. From what I understand Nov '05 has ALOT of LIDS. Does the Hunan orphanages have that kind of an impact to where they would speed things up in the middle of matching July LIDs? (once again going on the assumption that they are only matching about 5-8 days each month) since i’m clueless in this regards…somebody please let me know how big of an impact Hunan orphanage referrals have on the overall referral process. I’ve seen somewhere that it only accounts for a smaller percentage of the matches, but some times it sounds like they make up a big percentage of the matches.
The thing I’m curious about, and of course this is pure speculation, is that there’s been rumours/speculations that the wait time will go to 16 months…18 months…even as high as 24 months. We are currently sitting at about the 12-13 month timeframe. I’ve also seen several times where the CCAA has flat out said that the wait time would NEVER go beyond 24 months. I’ve also seen several times where the CCAA is wanting to keep things at or around 12 months for a referral wait time. What ‘bothers’ me about all this is that at the current match time frame (based on the past few months and also what my agency ‘predicts’ based on the current rate) by the time they get to us with an 8.10 LID it would be Dec. which would be 16-16.5 months like I had mentioned. And also like I referred to on the earlier post, a late late August LID wouldn’t probably get matched until 3/07 which hits the 19 month time frame. They’d get to the 24 month thing after finishing Sept and into October LIDS. So if those out there saying 16-18month wait time…it won’t take long to reach it at the current rate.
This is what confuses me. How would it get to that and then all of a sudden come back down again. From what I understand Nov ‘05 has ALOT of LIDS. Does the Hunan orphanages have that kind of an impact to where they would speed things up in the middle of matching July LIDs? (once again going on the assumption that they are only matching about 5-8 days each month)

]]> By: NEmomma http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1525 NEmomma Wed, 31 May 2006 15:10:45 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1525 HELP!!! Can anyone tell me about renewal of their fingerprints? We are LID 6/28 with prints expiring 8/3. After a lengthy run around from our local BCIS office, I finally got someone on the phone (!) who told me they would not redo our prints until they had either expired, or we had proof of travel. I explained that by the time we have our travel dates, there may not be much time to do the prints and get the approval. I was told they don't redo the prints w/o proof of travel in the event we don't travel (!) to which I replied that would only be the case if the adoption completely fell apart. I explained the stress of all of this and wanting to at least take care of this detail while we have the time. So someone is supposed to call me back (HA!) and I was hoping someone has some advice for me. Thanks HELP!!! Can anyone tell me about renewal of their fingerprints? We are LID 6/28 with prints expiring 8/3. After a lengthy run around from our local BCIS office, I finally got someone on the phone (!) who told me they would not redo our prints until they had either expired, or we had proof of travel. I explained that by the time we have our travel dates, there may not be much time to do the prints and get the approval. I was told they don’t redo the prints w/o proof of travel in the event we don’t travel (!) to which I replied that would only be the case if the adoption completely fell apart. I explained the stress of all of this and wanting to at least take care of this detail while we have the time. So someone is supposed to call me back (HA!) and I was hoping someone has some advice for me. Thanks

]]> By: J http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1506 J Wed, 31 May 2006 12:55:48 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1506 Stuy thinks that the Hunan referrals we've seen this year were in process pre-December 2005 so it would make sense that they filtered through over the next five-six months then...April, maybe May. So if April babies arrive at the CCAA for September/October, things could pick up faster than I thought. My Worst Case Scenario has July 8-14 being matched during September. A slight speed up might mean that with my 25 July LID I might not have to wait until November. See?! I KNEW I could find something good in here somewhere! Even if the feeling only lasts for about half an hour. Stuy thinks that the Hunan referrals we’ve seen this year were in process pre-December 2005 so it would make sense that they filtered through over the next five-six months then…April, maybe May. So if April babies arrive at the CCAA for September/October, things could pick up faster than I thought. My Worst Case Scenario has July 8-14 being matched during September. A slight speed up might mean that with my 25 July LID I might not have to wait until November. See?! I KNEW I could find something good in here somewhere! Even if the feeling only lasts for about half an hour.

]]> By: rbernst http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1505 rbernst Wed, 31 May 2006 12:52:44 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1505 With a 6/30 LID can I safely assume I'd be in the July refferal batch? With a 6/30 LID can I safely assume I’d be in the July refferal batch?

]]> By: waitingfor2 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1504 waitingfor2 Wed, 31 May 2006 12:44:36 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1504 First of all - thanks for the laughs last night, sorely needed. J - I think that the paperwork would arrive at the earliest at CCAA in August/September time frame. That's based solely on my first daughter (a Hunan girl) who was just at the 6 month mark at referral back in the last great wait. So I'm guessing any pickup would not happen until September / October referrals. Now my fear is that they will actually be getting slower before then. They still were referring children from Hunan in April. If there are no more dossiers from that province and it really was one of the largest provinces for international adoption (which I believe) then we may be getting even less referrals a month (and I REALLY don't want to believe that). So I'm still looking for a November/ December referral but hoping for October and now preparing for February. Did anyone see any Hunan referrals in this last batch? I didn't. First of all - thanks for the laughs last night, sorely needed. J - I think that the paperwork would arrive at the earliest at CCAA in August/September time frame. That’s based solely on my first daughter (a Hunan girl) who was just at the 6 month mark at referral back in the last great wait. So I’m guessing any pickup would not happen until September / October referrals. Now my fear is that they will actually be getting slower before then. They still were referring children from Hunan in April. If there are no more dossiers from that province and it really was one of the largest provinces for international adoption (which I believe) then we may be getting even less referrals a month (and I REALLY don’t want to believe that). So I’m still looking for a November/ December referral but hoping for October and now preparing for February. Did anyone see any Hunan referrals in this last batch? I didn’t.

]]> By: J http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1503 J Wed, 31 May 2006 11:22:07 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1503 Brian Stuy says that Hunan finding ads, which stopped December 2005, started appearing again this April. How long does the babies' paperwork take before their files make it to the matching room? About seven months? As Hunan really seems to make a significant contribution to numbers, perhaps things will pick up a little come November/December in time for the August 2005 LIDs. That would be about a 16 months wait and it could take a couple more for them to catch up to a month per month. Brian Stuy says that Hunan finding ads, which stopped December 2005, started appearing again this April. How long does the babies’ paperwork take before their files make it to the matching room? About seven months? As Hunan really seems to make a significant contribution to numbers, perhaps things will pick up a little come November/December in time for the August 2005 LIDs. That would be about a 16 months wait and it could take a couple more for them to catch up to a month per month.

]]> By: oscar1elmo http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1501 oscar1elmo Wed, 31 May 2006 04:37:50 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1501 Glad someone finds me amusing! HAHAHA, besides myself! Nite everyone, thanks for another day of interesting chatter, oh, and hey BOOTS-MICHIGAN, no wheaties here! Did I actually sound energetic! Thats funny! have a good one everybody! Oh, just wanted to share, I had a "dream" (seriously did) that CCAA came out with another bath of referrals earlier than expected, and shocked us all! LEts see if it comes through..... ooooooooo Glad someone finds me amusing! HAHAHA, besides myself! Nite everyone, thanks for another day of interesting chatter, oh, and hey BOOTS-MICHIGAN, no wheaties here! Did I actually sound energetic! Thats funny! have a good one everybody! Oh, just wanted to share, I had a “dream” (seriously did) that CCAA came out with another bath of referrals earlier than expected, and shocked us all! LEts see if it comes through….. ooooooooo

]]> By: michitakem http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1500 michitakem Wed, 31 May 2006 04:18:40 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/05/30/more-depressing-rumors/#comment-1500 " they estimate the next cutoff to be through 6/23" Of course, being a 6/16-er, the real question on my mind is, when's the next batch being sent out? ” they estimate the next cutoff to be through 6/23″

Of course, being a 6/16-er, the real question on my mind is, when’s the next batch being sent out?

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