What do I do with this?
I’m going post some details of two emails that arrived within minutes of each other. Both of these are from non-US sources.
The second email comes from someone who has spoken with someone from their agency who spends a large part of the year in China each year and has a lot of connections with the CCAA. He told them not to worry, that with a November LID they should expect their referral sooner than September. He tells them that the CCAA is moving and they are having a lot of problems with phone lines and networking. He feels that once they get moved things will speed up.
This is the part where I either run in circles screaming, bang my head against the wall, or have a drink. I haven’t decided which yet.
Both of these cannot be right. But both claim to have someone inside of China who should be in a position to know what they are talking about.
May 31st, 2006 at 9:10 am
Why not do all 3? Run in circles, bang your head on the wall AND have a drink. Works for me right now. Aaargggghhh!
May 31st, 2006 at 9:15 am
Maybe if we all bang on walls the banging will reach the CCAA???????????????????????????
Uhmm…rumor one sounds alot like one of the guides feedback we are hearing frequently of in the UK. If not, there is another guide saying the same things - which is very depressing. However, I honestly believe that at this point his feedback may be right for those just starting but not those of us logged in
I love rumor 2, would LOVE to have it be true (we are also a nov lid) but somehow my gut just doesn’t think it is right!
Back to wall banging!
May 31st, 2006 at 9:19 am
Well, it looks like this month we’re skipping the week or so of good rumors and going right to the mixed rumors. I guessing this will be brief and then right on to the really bad ones. This pattern is becoming depressing.
May 31st, 2006 at 9:22 am
but maybe this means they’ll do referrals earlier than the 25th of the month - the earlier the mixed then bad rumours, the quicker the real thing. After all we are still in MAY!
We can but live in hope!
May 31st, 2006 at 9:24 am
I think we have to remember that we’re dealing with a foreign government. We’ve got a great country, but we get conflicting info from our government agencies all of the time. I really don’t think that China is ready to completely mess up it’s program. There are many more dignified ways of slowing down adoptions. Dignity is very important to them. What makes more sense is that there are some factors such as Hunan and the move that have thrown them off and they are in a downward spiral and aren’t sure how to recover. It sounds chaotic and the sources are probably giving their best guess, which explains the huge discrepancy. We knew told that timelines could change, but who expected THIS??????
May 31st, 2006 at 9:29 am
Do you think it is possible that someone is starting the rumor that you should switching countries to freak all of us out? If more people switch then the wait decreases. Hmmm
May 31st, 2006 at 9:36 am
I have no comment on the first rumor and I think the second rumor is a little too “pie-in-the-sky” to be true.
Now I’m going to have my drink, bang my head on the wall, and then go screaming through the office.
May 31st, 2006 at 9:47 am
I think with such a vast difference in the two, that the truth lies in the middle. I really hope families that feel a strong pull towards a China adoption will not let this change their decision. There is NO WAY China will end its adoption program. I’ve said it before and I will say it again, unless the Govenment crumbles or they lift the one child rule, there will always be orphan children. There is no middle class in China. You are either rich or poor. The abandon babies are coming from the poor country sides. Unless someone hits the lottery their (just a joke) they will never get rich! As far as the second, I would love, love, love to believe it. We still could get the rest of June’s referals in May. Then they could begin one month referals again. As in murphy’s law, what goes up, must come down. Lets just hope the CCAA will find it’s middle ground and hold it steady!
May 31st, 2006 at 9:52 am
Regarding switching countries: we are with a china-only agency with a dossier logged in last November. So there is really no way for us to “switch countries” without losing the thousands of dollars we’ve already paid to this agency, right? I sent an e-mail to my agency a couple weeks ago with this basic question and never received an answer.
On a related topic, another agency would not even let me look at their Waiting Child list due to the fact that I already had a dossier in China with another agency. They said it was nearly impossible to switch agencies in that situation.
Does anyone have any insight on either of these situations? It seems to be we are “stuck” where we are with no chance of changing course at this point …
May 31st, 2006 at 9:53 am
I think I am running in circles, bangin head on everything that comes close and trying not to spill the drinks I have in both hands….. Where is the middle ground please…
May 31st, 2006 at 10:05 am
As if we don’t stress about the wait enough, we have to have completely different rumors on the same day? sheesh. I think I can speak for everyone when I say AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!
Ok. I feel slightly better now. :-) At least I know I’m not alone in wigging out. There are hundreds of us all over the world banging heads into walls and screaming like lunatics today!!
May 31st, 2006 at 10:06 am
We are waiting for the I-171H any day now and our agency is multi-country so we probably could switch countries, but I’m going to stick it out. For rumor 2 to be true that Nov LID would get referrals before Sept. they would have to send 2 months worth of referrals each month. That seems unlikely. I think CCAA would tell us that the move is causing the slowdown if that is all it is. I’m afraid that I am in for a very long wait, but I don’t think it will get up to 2 years, but hey what do I know? Absolutely nothing.
May 31st, 2006 at 10:16 am
I hate to be the voice of cynicism here but there is one factor that could explain the difference in the two messages: the agency person has a vested interest in keeping clients; the acquaintance in China does not. Looking at this from an agency standpoint, I doubt they know with certainty what’s going to happen. So, even if they suspect waits will continue to string out, why tell people that and send them packing? Agencies stand to lose a lot of money by sending folks away. No way to judge the credibility of message #1 but it _could_ be a more impartial voice. My mother-in-law works with a woman whose husband is a law professor in the US. He is Chinese, spent a good portion of his life in China before coming to the US, and goes back to China often. His perspective (relayed through his wife and my mum-in-law, mind you!) is reportedly that the Chinese gov’t would like to close the program because it does not present the country in the best light. I’m not trying to start a shutdown rumor at all but perhaps this reinforces the first message a bit….It is probably true that at least some people in China think the slowdown is intentional and long-lasting….still doesn’t mean they are correct. Who knows?!
May 31st, 2006 at 10:33 am
LID1105–The facts you’ve presented jibe with what I’ve been told as well. But with a Nov. LID it (which I’m assuming from your monicker) it might not be any faster for you to switch. I think it becomes a much bigger question mark for folks who were/will be DTC in 2006.
May 31st, 2006 at 10:36 am
Seeking…, if the first source is who I think it is, he too has a vested interest as he makes his living from looking after adopting parents. Might not be him though, but he’s saying exactly the same thing!
May 31st, 2006 at 10:42 am
I like to think along the lines of individuals. Just think how we all hear or read things and get a different impression of what it meant. Well all these people in China are just like us people with different points of views and different ways of looking at the information available to them. Basically a lot of information is well, personal opinions, and as we all know every body has a few! So I take with a grain of salt what an individual says because their personal views influence what they hear and believe.
Bottom line I wouldn’t base my joy or lack of it today or any day for that matter on the opinion of someone in China I don’t even know.
May 31st, 2006 at 10:47 am
GraciesMom,
I love your optimism regarding referrals, and I hope you are right. However, I recently watched a very intersting 5 hour documentary called “China Rises” (DSC).It was discussing how China is the first communism country to have a middle class, and they are making political history! There is no more Rich or Poor only scenario there. Yes, the farmers are very poor, and there will still be babies there. But people in the cities have money now, and not just the very rich. Many have enough to pay the sanction for more children, or even adopt. It also showed that many young women are now running businesses, and going to college. So that climate is changing as well. There was an entire hour devoted to the upcoming olympics, and how they are definitely going to use that time to show the world what they have acomplished, and how people can thrive, even under communism. It seems that soon, they will have to adress the issue of food, because they are building factories where farmers used to be, and the pollution of the factories built is seeping into the water supply. It was a fascinating documentary. I believe that you can order it online from the website. I highly recommend it. China IS changing, and I do believe at some point they will try to close this program, especially if the middle class continues to grow. The cities are booming!
May 31st, 2006 at 10:53 am
J is right, the person in the first email also has a vested interest in this, as his income is generated by adoptive parents. It has been brought to my attention that this person (first email) has been wrong a few times.
So, we know the first person may not be the most reliable person to listen to.
But what about the second person. We are at 12 months now. Okay, so we’re one week shy of 12 months, 11.75 months. This means that IF they start doing whole months again with the next batch then November LIDs will get their referrals in November.
For Nov LID to get a referral in September the CCAA will need to do 6 weeks of LIDs every month for the next four months. For them to get them before September they will have to double up some of those months. I don’t think any of us believes that is going to happen.
May 31st, 2006 at 11:12 am
So September of what year?? 2006, 2007, or 2008?
May 31st, 2006 at 11:16 am
HI all,
For what it is worth, I work in the international financial markets and just wanted to chime in agreement with what lizzie is talking about. China’e economy has been growing at a booming 9% a year for the past 10 years. The currecy has been strengthening and businesses in the cities are booming. This kind of grpwth is unprecidented and I do believe that someday there will not be a need for IA in China. However, I do not believe that this slow down is the begining of the end. I study market trends all of the time and I beleive that a slow down as a result of economic growth in China would probably have been a more gradual incline in wait times. This slow down has been way to abrupt to simply be the result of economic growth and less abandonments. It makes much more sense that the current slowdown is probably due to the situation in Hunan and that things could get a bit worse before they get better. When they do start to get better the standard time frame will probably be more like 10-14 months rather than the 6 to 10 months of the past reflecting a stronger wealthier economic situation in China.
May 31st, 2006 at 11:16 am
Lizzie–I saw that documentary. It was, as you note, quite impressive to see the incredible growth China has undergone. My social worker mentioned (and my Chinese friends have confirmed) that infanticide in China is still remarkably high, all the more upsetting considering the growth documented in the Discovery Channel miniseries. But we also need to keep in mind that this is the China that China wants the world to see. Just as the United States that our govt wants the world to see is not the decrepit and poor and homeless. I’m not challenging China’s growth at all. I’m just pointing out that it’s not all so rosy all over such an immense country.
May 31st, 2006 at 11:20 am
Hey, maybe some good news. I just got an email from my agency (small, east coast) and they are expecting referrals the second week of June. The groups of folks that they were expecting were LID 6/17, so not that much further out then where we are now, but still, much sooner than expected. Let’s hope they are right. :-)
May 31st, 2006 at 11:30 am
Dear Lizzie Says:
I watched that also along with reading at least a dozen books on the subject. Now do not forget, there is NO freedom of speach in China. Everything is controlled by the government. Women are not allowed to be told by a sonagram the sex of their babies, because they will terminate their pregnancy if its a girl. China also has no social security system. It is written somewhere in their constituion that a “boy” is basically their only social security system. The Lost Daughters of China, by National Geographics is excellent. It basically says the same thing. So of course, China or any communist country is going to say how well communision works! If I was the Head of the Party, I would most certainly paint a rosey colored picture of my government. Read the books that are written by Chinese Americans that have fled the country. Bound feet Western Dress, Second Daughter, and Lost Daughters of China (not written by a Chinese American, but adoptive partent) to name a few. Amy Tan is a very good author. I also found out that their are on phyciatrist or therapist in China. Why, there is no freedom of speach. Imagaine, you can’t even speak what is on mind or heart. China also has the highest rate of female suicides. The practice of killing baby girls and the disregard for females is so inbreed into them, it will take generations to change. Believe me, I really hope and I pray for this to change. I often wonder what I will tell my daughter when she is old enough to read some of these things herself? Also, my husband owns a large manufacturing business in the USA. He manufactures woodcarving tools. He was forced to go to China for some material and piece work. The first batch of work comes back beautiful. But the rest after that, are horrible. He also is purchasing another manufacturing business (has to do with paint cans), and will be working with a major manufacturing business that does business all over the world. He told my husband at first, everyone was going over to china to buy their products. But he is seeing a steady number of manufactures returning back to the States and other countries other than China. China is very difficult to work with is what we have been told. You need to buy in bulk rates.
May 31st, 2006 at 11:33 am
I just hope that us adopting parents that logged in at the
end of 05 will be ok, I have to get refinger printed in Aug
I’d hate to pay the additional fee’s and then be told that
they are closing the program, I do see this happening at
some point with their economy growth, and what are they
going to do about olympic time? With so many people that
are logged in? People that are just starting the process
I hope that they are being informed of this crazy wait and
potential problem around olympic time. I have called other
agency’s just to be nozy and asked about other countries
and the wait times are growing there too.
May 31st, 2006 at 11:45 am
Graciesmom - you haven’t actually been to China recently, have you? Many of those books you are talking about were written a long time ago. Things are changing rapidly. Very rapidly. Much of what was true 10 years ago is now a memory of how things used to be.
Babs - I would also expect that referral rates would gradually change due to the new prosperity and not give the sudden drop that we’ve seen. While most people now have a lot more money, and for the first time now have a good amount of expendable income… we have seen the referral rates drop way too fast for this to be the only reason.
May 31st, 2006 at 11:50 am
crazy4emily, I LOVE that rumor! Please let us know if you hear more! I’m lid 6/24, so I’ll take anything that remotely looks like movement in a forward direction at this point. Thank you!
May 31st, 2006 at 12:52 pm
crazy4emily - what are your agency’s LID’s for June? Do they have any others after 6/17?
May 31st, 2006 at 2:06 pm
For June my agency had LID 6/13 and 6/17. Which they recently grouped together as one “travel group”. It appears that the 6/13 LIDs have not yet received their referrals. (they don’t mention that this is strange at all, which I personally think is very odd) What we got from our agency is that they are hoping for referrals for this travel group the second week of June. So I took it to mean that they are expecting more to be sent out then. I’ve heard of other agencies that sometimes have LIDs in a certain date range but get “skipped” during the batch they should have received a referral. I’m honestly not sure if that is what happened here or not. I just don’t they are telling people the second week of June for the next batch of referrals. Sounded hopeful to me!
May 31st, 2006 at 2:07 pm
I met “I just KNOW they are telling people 2nd week of June” in the above. Sorry for the typo.
May 31st, 2006 at 2:09 pm
I have read all of the books that you mention GraciesMom. I agree wholeheartedly that it will take generations to change the culture. Consider how much we still deal with racism in this country, although we try to present ourselves to the world as being democratic and open minded. The great thing about the DSC doc. was that it is current(done this year) and it was done by Discovery channel, not the Chinese government. I’m sure that they had some control in where the cameras and reporters were allowed to travel, but I believe that the Discovery channel is unbiased in it’s reporting. Of course, any communist government would want us to believe that their party was best, but I think that China understands that the world no longer sees communism as an acceptable form of government. They are moving forward to make strides in history, so that the focus will be on the “middle class” and the ‘equality of women”, in a communism party. We all know that there is poverty in the rural communities, and that the people in these provinces rely on sons. My point is that as people move to the cities for jobs, as millions are doing, they will become more financially stable, and there will be a different chance of growth for women. Relate it in some form to the U.S. I am in an interrracial marraige. I can assure you that living in a city is better for us than living in MOST rural counties(I say most, because I do not believe that any blanket statement can be made about racism and the way that people react). I think it is important to note that millions of people are moving to the cities in China! With that move comes life experience and knowledge, and I believe that the trend of babies being abandoned will slow considerably. Selfishly, I would have liked to go back for a second daughter, and I may not get that chance. But, I am, of course, thrilled for the babies that will be able to be raised with their families and the girls that will get to go to school. I have no experience in the business world of China so I cannot speak about the quality, but if what you say is true, and people start buying from other countries, that in itself would cause the opposite effect. There is no certainty to the future of China.
May 31st, 2006 at 2:24 pm
Crazy4Emily,
I believe your agency had the same thing happen in May when their LIDs didn’t get referrals along with everyone else. You are right it is odd so let us know if you figure anything out.
May 31st, 2006 at 7:45 pm
LID1105… I hear ya… am also feeling a bit stuck (LID 11/28/05).
If you were to switch, and you can pull out, you’d have a fast homestudy addendum (they switch the country details) and approval (here in Ontario anyhow). BUT… ALL of your originals would have to be resubmitted / recreated for the new agency / process. It’s a money and time re-investment… and a huge emotional tussle… 2-3 months to have a new dossier, plus a new wait time… no guarantees on Russia, Kazakhstan or other country’s process…. etc etc etc.
That’s all I’ve found out so far! One thing I’m noticing is that the more I research the ‘other’ options, the more stressful this wait becomes….. it’s like trying to look with dual-vision, seeing two things at once and not having a relaxed knowledge that you’re going with one. Hard….. especially if you like to be in control of things and appreciate a simple process.