Because a picture is worth a million words
| I’ve done lots of math in the past week and I thought maybe we could do with a visual representation. So I squished the last three polls into one chart and then shaded the part that just got referred.
So, again: My best guess estimate is that the July cut off will between 7/18 and 7/21, and that the August cut-off will be between 8/8 and 8/18. That is based strictly on projections. It could go farther, and then again they could refer three business days again. We have been disappointed a few times when they did a lot and we just knew this was the turn around for them to start speeding up again. I’m still guarding my heart. But at least now I can see a reason to be optimistic. Another thought I had, and bear with me because this is a bit convoluted. In the early part of last year most people were getting LID’s within two weeks of their DTC date. Some people starting getting them a month out in June and July, and by the time we reached August and September most people had a lid of from 3 to 6 weeks after DTC. My point is that if we expect that dossiers were arriving in similar numbers per month, then the number of LID’s for June through whenever they started speeding up the log in process would continue to go down a bit while the log in process continued to slow down, and then would go back up whenever the CCAA finally played catchup with what must have been a mountain of dossiers waiting to be logged in. With that in mind I wonder if we should start a database of DTC/LID dates. Let me try to explain this another way. Most people with a LID from 9/5 to 9/20 would be an August LID if the CCAA hadn’t taken over a month to log them in. If we knew exactly when the DTC to LID dates extended out enough to push most people in one month to the next month then we might be able to make some assumptions based on that data. But I think I’ve gotten out of my league on the formula to figure that out. I’m pretty sure though, that if the tipping point was in May or June then that’s bad for our figures, and if it’s in July forward then that could be good for those with LID’s that happen before the log-in catch up started happening. |
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June 22nd, 2006 at 6:00 pm
RQ, My DTC was July 15 with a LID of July 25th. At the time I was grateful it was so quick, not long after me other people from my agency had longer intervals between DTC and LID.
June 22nd, 2006 at 6:06 pm
okay– help me with the math RQ (I’m a little slow).
this shows half of June having 230 dossiers - July with 208 dossiers - and half of August with 57? Does this mean that July is smaller than June and that August is really, really small?
Also - If I’m remembering correctly the DTC - LID’s started getting really farther apart from September to October. I’m DTC 8/26 and LID 9/9 - then I remember the next batches were really delayed.
June 22nd, 2006 at 6:07 pm
RQ-
we were DTC 7/25 (or 7/26 i don’t remember there’s too many numbers in my head right now) and LID 8/10.
I really see where you’re getting your estimated ‘cut-offs’ and I hope that for all of us the analysis gods smile upon you with this. I also kinda get where you’re coming from on the DTC to LID disparity issue. It does make some sense. This could definitely explain some of the “unbalance” of July and August as far as how it’s lighter in the first half of each month then a little heavier near the end…or if anything why there’s a clump of LIDs for a few days…then not much at all. You continue to impress. thank you so much for all you do!
June 22nd, 2006 at 6:08 pm
Sorry - I think if I added correctly July shows 308 dossiers - not 208.
June 22nd, 2006 at 6:12 pm
Could you’all repeat repeat repeat that please.
June 22nd, 2006 at 6:38 pm
I, too, am a “victim” of the delayed LID… we were DTC 8/24 and didn’t find out our LID until the tail end of Oct… but we were logged in on 9/29…. that was a LONG wait, too… let me tell ya!
June 22nd, 2006 at 6:47 pm
Thanks for the update RQ! Hoping to get passed the 9th in August!! I read in one of my groups that a particular agency (email me privately RQ if you need to know) told some of their folks with a mid Aug LID to expect refer in November, travel in January–and they suggested that those folks start the renewal of their I-171’s expiring in January!! We are all hoping for your estimates! thanks again for all your hard work, we all just appreciate it sooo much!
June 22nd, 2006 at 7:24 pm
I think your stats help prove my Oprah theory. When Oprah did her show about Chinese adoption in early December, I think it caused a rush of applications to China. If you figure it averages about 5-6 months to get together a dossier, maybe that is why June was such a mess. Maybe there is a more reasonable number of dossiers in the following months.
June 22nd, 2006 at 7:30 pm
I like your logic of estimating future cutoff dates based on the number of files by LID date. But I don’t see the value in the DTC to LID analysis. There are just too many unknown factors that could determine that DTC to LID time lag, many of which may be completely unrelated to what you’re trying to measure.
As an aside, the DTC for my Canadian agency would not be the equivalent of a US DTC (as I understand it). Our DTC is based on when the file is sent to China, where it is translated before being sent to the CCAA. So we don’t know when the CCAA actually received our file. Other agencies and countries may have similar differences which would make it hard to compare DTC to LID time lags.
June 22nd, 2006 at 8:39 pm
I can totally reinforce your Oprah theory “AmericanFamily.” I was one of those who watched the show that day. Had seriously been considering China adoption at the time, and that show sealed the deal for me. After that, it was getting the husband on board. Our log-in is November 17th. When people ask me, “Why the long wait?” I tell them, “Because everyone else decided to adopt from China at the same time we did.” Ha ha!
June 22nd, 2006 at 8:58 pm
Hi all,
First post, but long time reader — thanks RQ!
I am interested in DTC to LID as well, I don’t understand why it is so different for different people. For example, I was DTC July 22nd and LID Aug 24, but tgredthread was DTC after and LID before (significantly). Lucky!! : ) Call me jealous…
Anyway, wondering what effect that has on all of this. I can’t do numbers tho, so I will leave that to RQ.
I just want to be back before my 171 expires on Jan 15th!!
: ) (good luck sleeping this weekend all you 6/16-6/28….)
June 22nd, 2006 at 9:25 pm
I think that the vast majority of July was logged in fairly quickly. We were DTC July 1 with a LID of July 13. As far as I can tell from my July DTC group, most of us have a DTC to LID span of roughly 9 to 15 days.
What this does to the theory, I am not sure!
But count me in on loving your predictions! We could be next!
June 22nd, 2006 at 9:28 pm
hey RQ…my suggestion would be to not get bogged down in the whole DTC/LID thing. For our agency the DTC-LID time frame was 2 weeks give or take a few days for all the groups from last July until now. No idea why, but I am worried your head will explode if you try to do too much number crunching!! :)
Keep up the good work though…any chance you will be going back for a third? We are about to get out of line for now (and we should be in the next batch…that is a long story though), but might be back at this in a year or so. If we do I suspect I will sorely miss what you have been doing, if you are gone.
June 22nd, 2006 at 9:33 pm
Well, as I am fond of spouting off my DTC/LID dates whenever I can as they are abysmal, I’ll play. Although I don’t believe that you can tell anything from DTC to LID dates.
I was DTC May 26 and LID June 29. I think this is because my agency is a small one, and only had two June LIDs–beginning of the month and June 29. My theory is that my completed dossier sat there until more agency dossiers arrived, and then they were all logged in together, so that we could all travel together. Stinky for me, because there are so many people who have DTCs after me and are getting referrals in this batch. I feel a teensy bit cheated, since technically I was there earlier. But what can you do.
The good thing is that my agency tends to travel pretty quickly as they are small. But I’m sure that with my luck something will happen to mess that up. ;)
June 22nd, 2006 at 9:36 pm
************update*************
The CCAA has finished the review of the adoption application documents registered with our office before October 31, 2005.
Just checked CCAA website at 9:36pm
June 22nd, 2006 at 9:41 pm
Hi Everyone:
Just wanted everyone to know that the CCAA updated the review date to October 31st. Also congratulations on everyone who is getting their angels!
June 22nd, 2006 at 9:44 pm
My DTC was 8/22 and LID was 9/2… not bad for only 12 days- and that includes mail time. I think our dossier was sent right before the big batches for Sept. Just my thought. It seem like other DTC which were a few days later are LID in late Sept. or Oct. We were one of the last dossiers for my agency to complete the batch to get sent -so I know we didn’t sit and wait to be sent for 2 weeks. Even thought things have slowed since we all DTC- it’s still moving- even if it is slow. It hurts to say” Good things come to those who wait”–unfortuntly I am an instant gradification type of person. I’m really learning the art of patience with all of this.
Thanks RQ for keeping my spirits up. I look forward to reading any news everyday. Cheers to anyone who is joining me in a late night nite-cap!:)
June 22nd, 2006 at 9:53 pm
3 Cheers for the update!!! Making progress!!! Hopefully we’re picking up speed!
Congrats to all the new moms & dads and all the new big brothers & sisters! It must be an awsome feeeling!!! Enjoy your moment! -it bring tears to my eyes…I’m so happy for all of you. I was adopted and just think you all are the greatest and most special people and have the biggest hearts!!!! Hopefully this fall our family will be cheering for Mei’s arrival!!
Jeannine
LID 9/2
June 22nd, 2006 at 9:58 pm
Thanks RQ for continually trying to figure this stuff out! For any help it is, and I am way down the pike with DTC of 2/3/06 and LID of 2/24/06.
I REALLY have the feeling that things are on an upswing now. Yes, I have been accused of being nuts ;0) But, I can dream.
I am in one incredibly good mood tonight so I’ll be glad to share that late night nite-cap with you, Chinababymei
June 22nd, 2006 at 10:06 pm
LOL…it feels good to have a smile on my face when I think about this process… I’m afraid to say there have been a few times my smile has been upside down. Cheers cjrcnm! To enjoying the night with a smile and a nite-cap! :)
June 22nd, 2006 at 10:15 pm
NOvary- I was waiting for your post all day, you were unusually silent … I’m sorry it didn’t happen, our LID is 7/25 & I tell husband that the cut off will be the 24th…I look forward to you telling all of us about your baby when us July, Aug & Sept. LIDS are waiting to hear about ours… Someone said this am…YOU ARE NEXT.
June 22nd, 2006 at 10:58 pm
Hello everyone!
I have been following RQ for quite while and finally have decided to post.
I would be very interestes in a poll with both DTC & LID. We were dtc 9/7 and we weren’t lid til 10/10. We were told the story that other dossiers were stacked on top of our groups, and they were logged in before our groups. Go figure! Not sure what to believe.
June 23rd, 2006 at 12:06 am
Boy, I feel guilty to share that my LID was 8/23/05 and my LID was 8/30/05…only 7 days!
Selfishly, I am glad I missed the slow down that followed shortly thereafter in September and October.
June 23rd, 2006 at 4:01 am
I just read all this and understood not a word! No coffee yet! For the record, I was DTC July 13, LID July 25 with, I think, one other UK family. Our dossier went to China all on its own and I think it just got slotted in between big agency batches. Surely if an agency sends lots of dossiers, they take longer to log in? Or doesn’t it work like that? See? No coffee… But god I’m happy this friday.
June 23rd, 2006 at 5:51 am
Yay on the update ! My DTC was June 29 and LID July 18 ? Now it seems like a long way, perhaps my agency too was holding until they got a batch made up becuz they have a group for July 4th then ours the 18th.
Is it really possible that we may get referred in July ? My brain refuses to comprehend the possibility (and maybe its altogether better this way) ;)
Still can’t wait to see the new babies !
June 23rd, 2006 at 6:34 am
Ok will put mine out there and my agency sends them to China right away. DTC June 25
LID 7/27.
CC
June 23rd, 2006 at 7:32 am
Our agency sent 19 dossiers in (they only send once a month) on 7/13/2005 and our LID is 7/25/2005. I brought this up one other time b-4 a long time ago with my Yahoo Group and not many felt it wouldn’t be too valid. Someone on our group said that two different sets of people do loggin in than match…who knows!
June 23rd, 2006 at 9:28 am
Smalltowngirl, We are LID 8-08, and our agency who NEVER commits to saying ANYthing (prediction-wise), just YESTERDAY told me over the phone that it definitely looks like we will get a referral in September and travel in November. Take heart. We should get our little ones before Christmas! If we travel over Thanksgiving, what a perfect thing to be thankful for!!!
June 23rd, 2006 at 10:47 am
RQ,
I would be interrested in the numbers and time between DTC and LID. I am LID 3/21/06 and my agency sends dossiers to China every week. They recently gave us their information on dossiers to china and log in dates. This sheet clearly shows times when the ccaa was not logging in and times when they logged daily appearing to be catching up. For example I keep hearing November is big, but according to the information I have October is big and September is small. My agency sent every week, and they have one LID date for the whole month of Sept. and its for the last batch they sent in August DTCs. When you get to October they have 7 LID dates for batchs sent from Sept 2nd through Oct 14th. In November the have slightly over 1/2 what they have in Oct logged in. Hopefully this makes sense, its easier to see looking at all the numbers and dates on the page. Things go along pretty steddy until March 2006 when they have 7 LID dates again that cover Feb 10th DTC through March 24th DTC making March also a huge month. Between Oct and March they have 4 LID each month and run real close in numbers. Hope this helps or contributes toward what your working on. I would love to see how this affects everything.