More Analysis
I know we really shouldn’t make too much of the time that files spend in the review room. But I can’t help myself.
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| We also know that June took at least 51 days to get through. We don’t know if they were already working on June when they first started posting the info to their website, so I don’t have that date listed. However, we do know that June took longer than July, we just don’t know how much longer. |
The June referrals are grouped 5/31 - 6/6 (and 5/31 was HUGE), then 6/7 - 6/15, then 6/16 - 6/28. If we use this data, then I think there is reason to believe that they may get through all but a few days of July in two months. And if they do, then there is reason to believe that they may get through a good part of August in one month.
Maybe.
June 23rd, 2006 at 10:11 am
I wish I still had the emails (maybe I do somewhere) but weren’t we fairly certain that July had been completed way before the website changed? I’ll see what I can dig out.
June 23rd, 2006 at 10:21 am
Me again : ) I just looked back and I got an email from BLAS on 22nd February telling me July review had been completed. They didn’t say when though.
June 23rd, 2006 at 10:30 am
We have been absolutely certain that every month was through review before it was posted to the CCAA website. That’s why I don’t really think we should be using this… but like I said, I couldn’t help myself.
I may put them side by side with what our polls say about the size of the months too though, and see how much of a correlation we get.
June 23rd, 2006 at 10:32 am
I could have sworn that July got through the review room in about 2 weeks time.
June 23rd, 2006 at 10:36 am
july was posted as being done 3/5/06. june was posted sometime in January ( i didn’t write that date down unfortunately)
i would be interested to see if there’s a correlation between time in review and the timeframe of referrals.
June 23rd, 2006 at 10:46 am
me again: i was just trying to remember…but I want to say that it seemed May was done like in October or November. I remembered this because of a conversation with the DW about how long it seemed to take them to show they were done with June in review compared to July. I remember this conversation because it was right after they posted they were done reviewing August in 3 weeks which shocked the hell out of me at the time.
June 23rd, 2006 at 10:57 am
What is BLAS?
Thanks,
the “acronym-challenged one”
June 23rd, 2006 at 11:16 am
RQ - I think you are saying above that you think it will take 3 months (September) to start the August LIDs. Yesterday you hypothesized that we might get into the early part of August in August. Did I miss a post? I apologize for being dense if I missed something.
Thanks for all your wonderful work and have a great weekend.
LID 8/9
June 23rd, 2006 at 11:19 am
I said if we use this data. I also said we probably shouldn’t use this data.
My most recent “best guesses” can be found in this post:
June 23rd, 2006 at 11:39 am
RQ…
I doubt that we know how quick (or not quick) they were getting through a month in Review last year when they were referring about 4 weeks at a time do we? That would be a good thing to know in order to try out the review/referral correlation theory. It kind of makes sense to me that there would be something to that since if you have a lot of dossiers to go through in review for one month that means you have alot of dossiers to match …compared to a month that doesn’t have as much. And if they’re only matching a certain number of babies each month…
oh and also…for an early august LID, any speculation/analysis you have that shows an August or Sept referral possibility is music to our ears. :)
June 23rd, 2006 at 2:14 pm
Mom2Isabel, BLAS stands for “Bridges of Love Adoption Service.” They work closely with CCAA (used to be in the same building, but I’m not sure if that’s still true.) Our agency uses them for dossier and referral translation services and for getting information to/from CCAA when necessary. They also use them to arrange/guide all of our travel groups. They’re wonderful!
June 23rd, 2006 at 2:52 pm
OK -
While we are helping with acronyms… can anyone tell me what APC stands for? I think those are the right letters? Thanks and congrats to all who were referred and those who are now through the review room… can’t wait until it’s my turn. LID 12/14
June 23rd, 2006 at 3:13 pm
waitingforOliviaFL - APC= yahoo group for adopting-parents from china (or something similar):-)
RQ - How large is July? Why do you think it will take 2 months? What happened to the ” if they do all of June in June -then they should be able to do all of July in July?” Or did I dream that during the Cyber-slumber party.
June 23rd, 2006 at 3:31 pm
I love this kind of data driven speculation. This site is the best! (I no longer have to troll multiple lists to get the latest info because I now know I can get it here first). Thanks RQ and everyone else who posts.
Just started paperchasing TODAY for number 4! I had to get the reaction of a few of my friends b/c we’re not getting any younger, plus I was curious about the June referrals and what they might indicate as far as the wait. Good results on both fronts!
June 23rd, 2006 at 3:37 pm
congrats and good luck!
June 23rd, 2006 at 3:51 pm
china030507,
Thanks so much for the BLAS explanation. In my current extended-wait-time induced mental state, I started making up my own explanation for BLAS like…..
Betcha Lose All Sanity…or…
Byebye Lucidity Amid Slowdown.
June 23rd, 2006 at 3:57 pm
wow - our 7/25 LID is finally feeling close!
i would be thrilled to get a referral by the end of August considering what was being projected last month!
that would mean travel in October and taking “baby bonding leave” over the holiday season….sounds like heaven to me!
plus, our I 171H would not expire!
today, for the first time in a long time, i feel like it is all good!
congrats to those of you awaiting the arrival of the 1st photo of your new little girl!
June 23rd, 2006 at 5:08 pm
RQ — I have to second Katri’s question. It almost seemed like you thought it might take 3 months to get thru july since you said ” all but a few days of july in 2 months’
aren’t we thinking if this month is the beginning of a trend, they’d be able to get to the 3rd week of july next month, then do the rest of july and a couple of weeks of august (hopefully) the month after?
I know we shouldn’t get our hopes up, but ya kinda scared me with that sentence!
June 23rd, 2006 at 5:41 pm
Eli and Waiting for Jade — With an LID of 7/26, we’re on pins and needles too! Hoping that the July matches will give us some more clarification, but until then . . .
June 23rd, 2006 at 6:07 pm
Eli and Katri: See RQ’s comments at 11:19am.
June 23rd, 2006 at 6:59 pm
Thanks RQ - you are always trying to figure it out for us. You ARE the rumor celeb of the China adoption community and many of us would be a lot grumpier without you. Hey, at this point I’m about to request an autograph….you could probably sell autographs on eBay and make some bucks ;0)
Like you, I am not so sure how much predictive value there is in the review room info. At this point, I’m still riding high with the thought that the tide is now turning and referrals will speed up. I’ll let you know where to scoop up my remains from the cliff jump if I am wrong about that. At least I won’t meet NOvary at the bottom of that cliff anymore….she is NEXT. Wahoo!
June 23rd, 2006 at 7:20 pm
Nah, cjrcjm, I’m still at the bottom of the cliff. *Muffled yelp* I hope to climb out in the next few weeks. ;)
June 23rd, 2006 at 7:45 pm
NOvary…I know it just takes time (how’s that for a BS platitude?). But, if I could throw you a rope I’d drag your arse up from the bottom of that cliff because MP is at the top for you. Have a ‘tonic’ a BIG one….on me.
June 24th, 2006 at 6:51 pm
I’m new here, still paperchasing, and happy to see it it speeding up a little and hopefully they will stay at 12 months. We’ve been through a lot and some days it seems like we are *never* going to have a family.
Hopefully we’ll be LID in a month or so…
Thanks RQ for all of your hard work.
August 13th, 2006 at 1:58 pm
As of 8/13 at 1:57pm EST, CCAA’s website is up and running-no changes that I can see tho’
MC