Coming down from the mountain
First, someone pointed out to me that if the person who knows how to reboot the server is in Australia then it may stay down until they get back to the office. Good point.
Okay, where do I start. The email I mentioned this morning, outline of the cliff’s notes version: The 2 year time frame is probably still the best guess anyone has right now. The coming months are each expected to take as many months to get through as it took to get through June (with maybe September taking only two months), and once we hit the last three months of the year it is expected to drastically slow down even farther. This information is based on conversations with people who work at the CCAA. It does not appear to be coming from the top levels, but from the people who do the actual work.
And I have another email, from a different person than the previous cryptic message, basically saying to pay attention to what I was told, that more information will be coming out and it is not good. To our friends in Australia, please let us know as soon as you hear something, if you hear something. And to my original emailer, I’m sorry if I didn’t pay attention and I should have.
So what are we left with?
- Parents who have spoken with the CCAA and been assured face to face that they will only have to wait about 12 months. At least three families, two with November LIDs and one with a December LID.
- Unknown sources with “friends” at the CCAA who say that we may see all of July in the next batch.
- One U.S. agency who has heard murmurs of the all of July thing as well.
- Other people, professionals in the adoption world, who are telling us that this is not going to be the case, and who have some pretty valid reasons why they feel it won’t be.
Conflicting information. But we’re used to that, right?
All I can say is that if the CCAA officials are lying to parents to their faces then shame on them. When we go to China we pay attention to their culture, when they are in our countries I would hope that they have enough multicultural understanding to know that we consider information coming from officials to be, you know, official. This “understanding of different cultures” thing should go both ways, shouldn’t it? And in our culture, someone in an official capacity is supposed to be very careful to only speak what they know to be truth, and if they don’t know the truth (or have been instructed to not share the truth) then they sidestep the question and give a non-answer. And while the non-answer may be frustrating, it is nowhere near as bad as an outright lie is.
It is my hope that the CCAA officials are not doing this, and that they were being honest. I was basing 90% of my “permission” to myself to get excited about these rumors based what they’ve told waiting parents. But the last couple of emails I’ve gotten have given me a sinking feeling in my stomach. It took ten months to get through 4 months, and I’m still another three LID months away, so I could be another 8 months from referral? I can’t handle that. I just can’t.
To my original source, from months ago, you are so level headed and I value your input… can you throw us a little bit of a bone? Please?
So, I will once again distance myself emotionally from the rumors. Riding high on the possibility of whole months felt really really good, but I can’t handle the ups and downs.
July 13th, 2006 at 10:14 am
Hang in there, RQ! I believe the next batch of referrels will be a good reflection of the future. It still may be a very long. Like you I am hoping for before Christmas. We can all get throught it together. LID 9/29.
July 13th, 2006 at 10:17 am
OK, what are these “pretty valid reasons” that they won’t be speeding up? Is it the usual: more dossiers, less babies, Hunan, etc etc etc? The speed up rumors include the valid reasons that they would like to keep it around 12 mos and July has fewer dossiers than June. So what are the reasons for NO speed up?
July 13th, 2006 at 10:18 am
Maybe this is someone else who wants to mess with us? Or just manage our expectations for some reason?
Because now we’re back to the 2-3 year waits, if all this is true, and that just doesn’t seem feasible unless they want to shut the program down.
July 13th, 2006 at 10:24 am
Oh, god! Someone please stop the ride! I want to get off!
Okay, seriously, I think this rumor comes down to the reliability of the source. Is the source relaying information he or she actually heard from the CCAA about what the CCAA thinks will happen, or is the source *interpreting* various conditions and/or facts and drawing a conclusion?
RQ, I’m asking this question hypothetically because I know and understand that you feel bound to protect your sources. But this is such a game of telephone we’re in. I’ve seen rumors (clearly stated as such) from this site quoted as truth on other boards. I’ve heard people recall rumors from long ago and speak of them as if they were foregone conclusions when in fact even at the time they were hypotheses. Somebody could get a tour of the Matching Room, take a CCAA employee out to lunch in Beijing and chat about the timeline, and parse together the bits of info gleaned to come up with a guess about what the future will bring. It will probably be a more informed guess than I would come up with, but it still wouldn’t be more than an interpretation of the facts.
So basically, unless this source heard directly from the CCAA director what was going to happen to the timeframe, I’m not going to sweat it. I wasn’t buying the “all of July in July” thing either…I’m just a skeptic at heart, I guess. The bottom line for me is that I just don’t believe the CCAA wants the wait to get to two years. That’s just my gut talking, though.
July 13th, 2006 at 10:30 am
I’m very curious about who these negative sources are. Are they agencies saying things aren’t going to speed up? The reason I’m curious is because I believe they are in the dark as much as we are, or even more if they don’t read your blog. If this is the case are they not just projecting what’s going to happen by what’s already happened? They may be looking at how many dossiers they have and not the whole.
I am also confused by the CCAA. It does seem that they are also giving conflicting information. When they told the Dec LID, didn’t they also say to petition the govt to get the I171H’s extended? I wonder if the CCAA is just made up of several individual people working alone or if they’re working as a team.
July 13th, 2006 at 10:32 am
Hi RQ, the other puzzling bit of info was the suggestiont that at the end of the year things would slow down even more. If my calculations are correct, the 7 or 8 Hunan orphanages that had shut down last year will be back in the system by then (according to Brian Stuy they started posting finding ads again back in April) so assuming there will be an influx of paper ready babies in Oct/Nov, things should speed up, not down. I’m staying (stubbornly) optimistic…
July 13th, 2006 at 10:34 am
violet – I’m trying to give as much information as possible without getting anyone in trouble. And in the process I’m probably being a bit cryptic as well. Sorry, don’t see any way around it right now.
In a nutshell the reason is, yes, workload. Number of dossiers they have in the upcoming months (known) vs number of baby dossiers they expect to receive (estimated).
Which led my husband to question how much the workers know about number of dossiers they are expected to receive. If the various conspiracy theories are right then it is concievable that the higher ups arranged for more dossiers to arrive once they hit the 12 month range. Someone who has recently been to China was told by an orphanage director that they haven’t been allowed to send as much paperwork as they used to send. They were used to the income, and the (fairly large) reduction of it has hurt the orphanage pretty significantly. So, maybe the higher ups released whatever restrictions they’d been putting on the orphanages and there will be more paperwork coming in, but the CCAA workers didn’t know that?
Or, maybe the conspiracy theories are wrong. Or, Maybe the CCAA told waiting families the truth. Or, Maybe my most recent emailers are right.
I honestly don’t know which it is right now.
July 13th, 2006 at 10:46 am
I cannot imagine any employee of the CCAA publicly saying ANYTHING that is not officially approved BY the CCAA. I’m in the public relations field, and that is the biggest NO NO of all! Plus, we are talking about a very tight-lipped system that is still part of a Communist government. I believe the Chinese are a culture of people who take INTEGRITY very, very seriously. I cannot see them making frivolous statements to families. It would do nothing more than make them appear to NOT be credible. Just my opinion, for what it’s worth.
July 13th, 2006 at 10:47 am
Ninatchka – I will no longer consider Brian Stuy to give credible information. Sorry, he’s lost all credibility with me. I can’t figure out what his agenda is, but it does not seem to be in support of international adoptions anymore.
Eli- I don’t know for sure that it isn’t someone just messing with us, but I honestly do not get that feeling from the email. It seems to be someone concerned that we are getting our hopes up, and trying to give enough information so I’ll believe that they know what they are talking about.
To all, until we start to get actual estimates coming from the CCAA, we have no idea of whether this batch is going to be five days or 30 days. I can’t make any one source that much more reliable than any other source at this point. I was putting the integrity of the CCAA officials who spoke directly with waiting parents as the most likely to be correct, but now I’m scared to do that.
July 13th, 2006 at 10:50 am
RQ: I agree with you on the integrity of what the CCAA officials were saying to families. I believe they would make a traditional PR statement like “we are working on this” or “we hope to have more data soon” or something politically correct but also VAGUE. It goes against everything I know of their culture to just speak a bold-faced lie to families like that.
July 13th, 2006 at 10:55 am
Actually, in the Chinese culture, it’s complicated, but basically you only ask questions that you have enough guÄnxi with that person to ask. And if you ask a question that you have no business asking, then it’s perfectly okay for the person to give a false answer.
But, as I said, I’m hoping that they have enough multicultural sensitivity to understand that most westerner’s do not understand this and expect that any answer from an official is the truth to the best of their knowledge.
July 13th, 2006 at 10:56 am
RQ – I can’t believe I’m saying this but thank you for bringing me down off that high right now. The concept of “saving face” in China is so ingrained. I don’t think we can really expect the CCAA officials to tell us bad news to our face. (Wanting them to and wishing they would is a whole different ball of wax). I worked with businesses in China in the past and they do not like to tell you bad news or anything negative. It is very bad manners and just isn’t done. Just like lying to your face isn’t done in the West (at least not as good manners). It was not meant as deception but it is something that is very, very hard to grasp. With all that being said, I do think that we will still see a decent part of July in this next group (not because they will suddenly be able to get through so many more dossiers) but because July and especially August are end of the month heavy. That is why I really want to see the individual size of days for August. The data that I’ve seen to date (which involved a whole lot of guessing and extrapolating from some very poor sample sizes – not your stuff RQ!) suggested that maybe as many as 70% of the August dossiers were logged in the last 11 days of the month. If CCAA was able to do 2/3 of August (by calendar days) in a single month, I don’t think that necessarily means that the last third of August can be easily done in 1 month (but boy I hope I’m wrong!!!!). I was getting too excited – you’d think by now, I would know better.
July 13th, 2006 at 11:02 am
2-3 years wait??? I heard about up to 18 months, but I’ve never heard of the waits getting as long as 3 years. If that is true, which I find hard to believe, it seriously puts in question the integrity of the CCAA. And during these extended waits, whether they are 12 months, 18 months, or 3 years, what is happening to all of these children who could be with a loving family?
I understand there is some supply/demand issue, but it doesn’t seem like that can possibly account for waits of this length. Maybe the CCAA is having some internal struggles.
I’m probably very naive, but I just don’t understand why telling truth about all of this is so elusive. What is the harm in telling people the reality of the situation? If the reality is that waits really are going to stretch out to that time frame, then at least you can prepare for it, or decide you want to explore other options (if that’s what works for you). Not to mention how much your life could change over the course of a couple of years. Does that mean you can’t make any big changes in your life (no new job, don’t move to another city/state, certainly don’t get married or divorced, and hope and pray that you don’t get layed off from your job or have some serious medical issue). My point here being that life around us goes on, and the truth is that sometimes the things that happen in life could make the CCAA question our situation or the stability of the situation — now I just feel like I’m rambling, so feel free to ignore this outburst.
To be honest my gut feeling is that referral times will become more reasonable. In my heart, I don’t believe I’ll have to wait more than a year to see my daughter. I hope the CCAA can work out their issues because this uncertainty is taking its toll on a lot of good people (most importantly, the children).
July 13th, 2006 at 11:06 am
RQ: My understanding comes from relatives who married into my family (I am Scottish – so I have NO direct knowledge). They are very Americanized now, so perhaps they are from the “old school.” They’ve been here for over 50 years, so I realize a lot could change in that timeframe.
Still, from a PR perspective, it’s better to make up some vague crap than to just lie. I should know – that’s what I always do when faced with a question that has an unpleasant answer! “We’ll look into that” or “we’re working on it” beats a lie any day.
July 13th, 2006 at 11:14 am
To be clear, I was told two years. Someone else has pointed out we could be looking at three years.
And, if things don’t change, we could. With the current “2.5 months to get through a month” time frame it will take 30 months to get through a year of LID’s. We are already at a 13 month wait, so the people being logged in right now would wait 43 months, which would be over three and a half years from now.
I keep thinking that things MUST change because a three and a half year wait makes the program not viable. But then, back to conspiracy theories, maybe that’s what they want?
I hope not, and I hope we see a good amount of referrals this month. But I’m not counting on it.
July 13th, 2006 at 11:20 am
I just cant understand why they have to be so secretive
cant just say what the real deal is? This has been one
hell of a roller coaster, But I cant stay away RQ, If we
did we wouldnt have a clue what could be happening
with a 11/18/05, It was starting sound like by the end
of 2006, RQ your at the end of Sept and your thinking
8-months so we would be looking at another 10-12
months, My DH has only waited 23-years to be a dad
whats a another year. And another thing why doesnt
our agencie’s have any clue as to what’s going on
since they are our go to people??? I dont drink I guess
I will go down a diet pepsi…..
July 13th, 2006 at 11:21 am
RQ- yesterday you mentioned one agency had a prediction based on the past batches that was so dreadful you didn’t even type it. Since we are already in negative rumor mode, could you share it?
I am LID 7/8 and hoping to make this batch-
thanks
July 13th, 2006 at 11:22 am
I’m of the belief that not even the CCAA KNOWS what will happen 3 months from now. There are too many variables that can affect things.
In the business world that I work in we start projects and say it will be completed in May ’06 and will stick to that until April ’06 when it becomes obvious that we have too many problems to resolve…then we get it done as soon as we can.
I believe that anyone who has made a comment about what is coming probably believes it when they say it. Chances are they have “corporate rumors” too.
In my world if users are asking over and over “what is happening with X project” and “we’re working on it as fast as we can” no longer suffices….we tell them “it will be done in September” with the total belief we will be done by September even though no new goal is set.
While I’m sensitive to the fact that everybody wants to hear a reason for the slow down and know something for sure, it seems unfair to assume people are conspiring against us. What has the CCAA’s official statement been? 12-14 months? That’s not a lie yet is it?
Again, I totally understand the frustration of the wait, but sometimes the truth is “we’re working on it, we hope to keep it to 12-14 months”.
July 13th, 2006 at 11:26 am
Does this feel like another month (although the most extreme yet) of good rumors followed by heartbreakingly bad rumors? If so and history repeats, the bad ones will turn out to be true yet again.
July 13th, 2006 at 11:28 am
I agree with 2littleroses, I’d love to know the prediction. With the latest word, what would it matter knowing what was said…we’re already off the mountain.
I forgot to tie my bandana to anyone!
July 13th, 2006 at 11:32 am
waitingmommy – No one is assuming a conspiracy – but the conspiracy theories are out there, and I’m just pointing out where they fit and where they don’t. And, if a CCAA official told someone they would have to wait 12 months but they are going to have to wait well over two years, that’s a HUGE difference, one that they should have knowledge of ahead of time. They know how many parent dossiers they have, and they have a rough estimate of how many baby dossiers they will have. I agree that anything farther out than a month or two is just an estimate, but surely they wouldn’t be over a year off on what they tell someone!
July 13th, 2006 at 11:44 am
The prediction was 7/7 – but ALL they did was average the last three months and use that number. That is what this agency has been doing for a while now. Sometimes it works out and they are close, other times it doesn’t work out so well.
July 13th, 2006 at 11:45 am
Also, remember my projections – I’m hoping to see at least July 18th, if indeed they are doing about the same number of referrals per month.
July 13th, 2006 at 12:03 pm
Well heck! I think it is a bunch of doo-hickey that the CCAA doesn’t know how many babies they will have to project out at least 3 months at a time. I have said this before– not sure if on this board. But, orphanages are required to keep newly found babies for 3 months while they run the finding ads. It is only after 3 months that the babies are considered truly abandoned and available for adoption.
They should have some idea of the amount of time it takes to process the paperwork required for each baby and how many baby dossiers can be completed within some timeframe.
Therefore, if they are organized about this process, then they should know how many paper-ready babies they will have for each referral period and provide some estimate of the wait– at least at short intervals.
Oh boy, just in time for lunch! With a LID 12/20/05 if the referral waits stay status quo to the last few months, I think we are going to begin the adoption process for another country while waiting for our daughter from China. We would like to adopt twice and wanted to adopt both from China, but we aren’t getting any younger and with waits like this . . .
UGH!
July 13th, 2006 at 12:08 pm
With a 7/27/05 LID, I’m not holding out much hope for a referral this month, but I’m still hoping for an August referral. All of July in July sounds wonderful, but I’m not sure that’s realistic, especially since we still have 2 rather large referral days at the end of June to refer and the end of July looks to be a bit heavier. However, at some point, I keep telling myself, things must pick up or people just submitting their dossiers will face waits of ridiculous lengths. Completely and totally unselfishly, I say nows the time to speed things up!
July 13th, 2006 at 12:18 pm
thanks for the info RQ– and for pointing out the predication is a ‘theory’ not a ‘rumor’. At this point in the month all we really have are ‘theories’. Personally, I am holding out until we hear from our friend Maria and the ‘usually right agency’. They have been the most reliable the past few times and, since they haven’t said anything yet, anything can still happen!
LID 7/8 so close and yet so far….
July 13th, 2006 at 12:46 pm
2littleroses – We are also LID 7/8. I really thought this month was our time. I am not going to give up on that yet! If we do not make it this month, we have to redo our home study. Oh well, we can do that (if we have to.)
July 13th, 2006 at 12:56 pm
Maybe it’s not so much a shortage of babies or more dossiers, but that they don’t know what the impact will be, from their people, with the pomp and circumstance going on about “girls being just as good as boys”, etc…
Maybe they are being a bit reluctant right now, in anticipation with how their change of views will be taken by their public. Will the public change their minds and want little girls? Will they be tempted with the extra 100.00 and some dollars a year they will get, at retirement, if they keep their little girls? Will there be more Chinese people adopting the little girls who are abandoned?
It just hit me today that this may all be a “testing the waters” sort of thing, to see what happens with their “campaign” to keep these little girls. If that fails, and their people don’t change their views on the importance of little girls, then things may speed back up again?
July 13th, 2006 at 12:58 pm
I’m having a hard time stomaching this. If the wait gets much longer my dh is going to want to abandon this as he thinks he’s just about too old to have a baby running around and doesn’t want to be 65 when she starts high school! Geesh!!
July 13th, 2006 at 1:10 pm
RQ, can you refresh me about what your “friend/source” from a few months ago told you? I can’t recall it, though I assume it was wait-related….
July 13th, 2006 at 1:13 pm
I just don’t think it’s possible that the wait could get to 3 years…without the whole system just shutting down. I know TOO many people who are abandoning the thought of China even with the 18 month rumor looming.
Dh and and I have always known that we wanted to adopt from China, but we will hesitantly start another adoption in late fall, early winter, if the outlook isn’t positive at that point.
Thanks for keeping up this site, RQ! I have been lurking for awhile now, but just registered today.
July 13th, 2006 at 1:22 pm
Mary, back in March the word was that the CCAA is not comfortable with anything over 12 months and did not intend to go over. That came from CCAA.
My source’s feeling was that once the Hunan issues were history and once they got moved, that we would see a speed up.
So, I would love to have an update from this source about what their feelings are now, and whether they are still hearing the 12 month thing from the CCAA.
July 13th, 2006 at 2:13 pm
It is the time of the month for the negative rumors. I still believe in my heart that 12 months is it! I guess this month will tell us what is true.
July 13th, 2006 at 2:31 pm
At some point wouldn’t the CCAA have to make some kind of public statement (to everyone – all agencies not just a few) about what is going on? I would think that if this next batch is for just a few days then agency’s would start to be flooded with phone calls from their clients demanding more information about just how long this is going to continue. I know we are at the mercy of the CCAA but this seems to be getting out of hand. Am I right in saying that the last delay with a wait of more than 12 months was due to SARS so at least everyone knew the reason?
July 13th, 2006 at 2:42 pm
With a LID of March 9, 2006 I’d just like to be told the truth so I can grow my family another way. I will be unforgiving if I wait three years when I could keep my children close in age by going to a different country.
July 13th, 2006 at 2:59 pm
Ninasmom, i agree completely. I would also use the word ‘unforgiving’ –its the perfect word to describe how i am starting to feel. everyone says ‘ it will all be worth it’ when the baby finally arrives, but if its 3 years from now, and i am in my mid forties and i have spent all that time waiting for my FIRST child when i could have been pursuing other options, i will be very unforgiving.
of course i will feel it was all worth it, but i will still be angry about the length of time i had to wait and the misleading statements and the purposeful withholding of information along the way…
July 13th, 2006 at 3:22 pm
eli – I’m sending you a big good luck hug. You will obviously be an amazing parent to care so much…it WILL all be worth it in the end. Let’s just hope (and pray) that the end is in sight…at least with 20/20 vision! :)
July 13th, 2006 at 4:30 pm
If we haven’t received our referral in around 18 months (our LID was in March 2006) and there is still no real reasonable answer on this timeline from the Chinese government (instead of the party line of 12 months to referral when they continue to only process a week or two a month), we will be reconsidering the whole adoption process to China. This would absolutely break my heart—we have the baby’s nursery all set up, have studied extensively on China, taken parenting classes, Mandarin, etc. At 50 and 39, our lives have been put on hold during the wait—we are putting off a move or a house remodel, trying to save as much as we can, I am working a part-time job off the career track until the baby comes, we are nervous about our parents becoming sick or infirmed before we have their first grandchild, etc. Not to mention the fact that we have sunk a huge chunk of money into this adoption.
I can’t help but be frustrated with China—I realize that you can’t “order up†a child, but for heavens sakes, the CCAA surely must know how many children needing homes are in the system, how many applications worldwide, and how many workers they have to process the applications, how long for CCAA closures and three weeks for their move (ugh), etc. Crunch the numbers and give us a reasonable, projected timeline–for such a progressive, process-oriented country, which is a world leader in technology not to know just doesn’t cut it.
At one time in the not so distant past, Chinese adoption used to be one of the most stable, enviable adoption processes in the world… I don’t know if I could say that now. CCAA, I hope you hear our discouragement and disappointment…
July 13th, 2006 at 4:34 pm
I don’t think CCAA is reading the site.
But I can completely agree with your post.
July 13th, 2006 at 7:21 pm
Regarding the cryptic email from AUSTRALIA – Its a load of HOGWASH! Dont listen to it for one minute whoever, is sending those emails they are trying to stir the pot! dont fall for it! I attended one of the gatherings that CCAA officials were at this week in Australia & there was NO such mention about the wait times “increasing” further! CCAA are trying to keep it to around the 12mon mark! it appears that it has been a “deliberate” attempt on CCAA’s part to increase the wait from 6-12mons as they couldnt keep up with the current 6mons pace.
FCC reps is having a meeting at the beginning of August with our government department (as we dont have private agencies here in Australia as FCC put forward to our government department if they could discuss with CCAA about wait times, so we should (hopefully) find out more then.
So DONT listen to the CRYPTIC EMAIL! as there has been NO OFFICIAL WORD that wait times are goingto keep INCREASING!
July 13th, 2006 at 7:58 pm
Thank you, Ninasmom, for your very kind words — and right back at ya!