Worse case scenario
If we average the past six months of referrals we get 10.67 LID dates included per month.
If I go forward with this, giving one month 10 days and the next month 11 days, it looks like this:
It is important to remember that the past six months have come in spurts, with anywhere from 5 to 18 days being referred at a time. This chart is not good for knowing exactly when a referral might come. However, if things remain at that 10.67 average, then it will be accurate over the long term, and accurate to within about four months for a specific LID (so, plus or minus two months).
As you can see, this says that for people who are submitting their dossiers right now, the wait will be three years. Considering that agencies are still reporting record numbers of dossiers right now, it could be longer, since apparently there are more people submitting dossiers this year than last year.
This is depressing, so why did I do it? Because I have maintained for quite some time that the CCAA must either speed up or close the program. If we keep going out with this horrid little spreadsheet, then people who are beginning the paperchase right now and who manage to be LID by mid November of this year would get their referral in July of 2010.
What I’m getting at here is that the CCAA has known about this for some time. This is simple math, and they know how many dossiers they have – how many dreams they have stacked up in filing cabinets, people waiting to be parents. Don’t they have to have a plan for how to handle all of those folders full of people’s dreams? Please?
July 13th, 2006 at 2:20 pm
Being precisely one of those couples that is finishing their paperchising now, who expect to be lid by the end of august, these is extremely disturbing… and just makes me want to cry. odemaris
http://www.buscandoameiling.blogspot.com
July 13th, 2006 at 2:36 pm
I’m with you, odemar. We were hoping to be DTC this month, but due to a 171-H slowdown with our CIS office, we probably won’t be DTC until late August or September.
Ugh.
July 13th, 2006 at 2:39 pm
I cry too!! With an 3/24 LID I refuse to believe that we will receive our referral in August 2008 (which we then realy will receive half of september by a phonecall from our agency because everything has to be translated first)!! That means that we would have a waittime of 2,5 years!!!!! That just can’t be true… it just can’t…. This is very depressing after the good rumours.
Anja
LID 3/24/06 the Netherlands
July 13th, 2006 at 2:46 pm
My LID is 11/22/05. I am a single adopter, and had to wait several months for an opening. One of my employees has been on maternity leave TWICE since I started the adoption process. Ugh! I don’t even want to think about having to wait another year.
July 13th, 2006 at 3:00 pm
The point of this wasn’t to depress everyone further, sorry about that.
The point was really to point out why I’ve been saying that the current trends just can’t continue. Mathematically, it can’t continue indefinately at this rate.
Not unless the CCAA is intending to shut down the program. And they say that is not their intention.
July 13th, 2006 at 3:01 pm
Yep, this is depressing, but hopefully there will be a bit of good news when the July referrals come out (i.e., maybe they’ll get at least most of the month done). My agency rep believes the CCAA really has no “master plan” and is simply muddling along as best they can given staffing and other constraints… but I’d like to think at some point they’ll act to prevent people waiting two years or more from LID. As an 11/30 LID, I figured I’d probably get a referral at least by Feb. 2007, the thought of waiting another solid year makes me downright nauseous. Geez, what a rollercoaster.
July 13th, 2006 at 3:02 pm
We should be DTC next week. I’m very depressed right now. 3 years?! Maybe we should just try again to get pregnant after all. Sigh.
July 13th, 2006 at 3:17 pm
This is insane! Earlier this month, our large agency sent us an email stating a 12 to 13 mos. wait based on the current referrals. However, time frames of course can fluctuate. I’ve placed a call to my agency, and will let you know if they believe the 24 mos. or 2.5 year wait – which is ridiculous beyond belief. I think the most frustrating part of all this is not be in charge of the time frame – compiling the dossier seems easier than having to endure this wait. Our LID is in Feb. and then I think of more delays, the move, Christmas, Chinese New Years, Olympics, or who knows. My heart is heavy right now, and it’s hard to think positively. Usually, I do, but this latest set of rumors have placed me back – I feel like a darn yo- yo….
July 13th, 2006 at 3:19 pm
UGH. I have a comment on that one, jdb.
Our agency has a “rule” that if we become pregnant during the paperchase or waiting process, that our China adoption would need to be put on hold until our birthchild is 12 months old! I hate this rule. After one misscarriage in 2000, we tried to become pregnant again for over 4 years. When we “signed on” with this agency, and read that “rule,” I thought that it was a China program rule. NO. A friend of mine who adopted from a different agency said that their agency does NOT have that rule. It is only an agency thing! To think that EVEN THOUGH we have tried for 4 years with no luck in getting pregnant….and then when we started the process to adopt our little girl (a long time personal dream of mine) we stopped “trying” out of fear that we would have to wait for our little Allie that much longer. We became AFRAID of getting pregnant because Allie was our PLAN A. So, with THAT said, I am very frustrated by all this waiting due to the CCAA delays and the fact that I’m in the agency I’m in b/c who knows? We COULD have become pregnant again, if we’d tried, I mean, it happened once before…right>? And if we WERE to become pregnant AND adopt our sweet girl from China all in the same year….WHO CARES?!?!? I would feel SO incredibly blessed to have 2 beautiful children to love after so many years of longing for even one.
8-8
July 13th, 2006 at 3:21 pm
RQ> Sorry that I got OT with the above post….I guess I just started rambling….well, venting is more like it. My apologies.
July 13th, 2006 at 3:23 pm
Wow, with an early 12/05 LID, it is hard to fathom that we may not get a referral until 10/07!?!?!?!? I guess this is why my wife and I have never discussed names, decorated a nursery and stopped all our deliveries of catalogs that cater to would-be parents. Does anyone know of other countries with short term waits and babies under 12 months?
July 13th, 2006 at 3:27 pm
On an up-note. We’re LID 12/12/05 and we have been through several referral dates from our agency.
First, 8-10 months. Then 12-15 months, then 14-18 months, now we are back at 12!!!
And actually, it’s looking real good, so, I respectfully disagree with the RQ. :)
July 13th, 2006 at 3:29 pm
wunone16, Guatemala….or Equador….I can’t remember. Babies (mostly boys) are as young as 3 months and the wait is obviously not as long, and you only stay in country for 4 days.
July 13th, 2006 at 3:32 pm
RE: wunone16
Yes, Russia is much shorter. (6-7 months).
An aquaintance started her “paper chase” in January 2006 and she’s now traveling for the second time to Russia in about a month to bring home her baby.
July 13th, 2006 at 3:32 pm
Waiting for Allie – I like your agencie’s prediction!
Seriously though – some agencies are sticking to a 12 or 14 month wait, others are insisting that it will reach 2 years.
I’m now officially in the camp that’s scratching her head and wondering which is right.
July 13th, 2006 at 3:36 pm
I’m guessing that 10days in this scenario is actual days and not just business days…?
So looking at this solely from our LID of 8.10. yes the above would put us in the November referral group and will have to re-do our I-171H.
If it were 10days/business (they did 9 days this last group remember) then the cut offs would be July: 7/12, Aug: 7/26, Sept: 8/9 (damn just missed the cut-off), Oct: 8/23. We’d fall into the Oct referral group and would have to re-do our I-171H. In this scenario any additional day in this next group or August’s referral group would put us in September’s referral group and we would NOT have to re-do our I-171h…just our fingerprints.
If they do to the 18th of July this group that’s 14 business days or 20 actual days.
I guess I’m confused about what we should really look at as far as counted days of actual LIDs. I’m obviously figuring that there are 5 days of business and 2 of non-. If this doesn’t factor in LIDs then let me know so I can better grasp what really happens.
July 13th, 2006 at 3:38 pm
Take a big breath you all. Here is the always optimistic french canadian “a la rescousse”. Okay, that spreadsheet is base on AVERAGE. Things are speeding up and, I am constantly saying It, our agency (that is usually VERY right) still talking about the 1 year timeframe. Okay, may be we, november LIDers, will get our refferals in december but, It is unthinkable that the wait will go over 14 months… think about It (really). And, you may think otherwise but, the staff at CCAA IS working hard to reach that goal. Anything could happen, but be realistic… not to optimistic nor pessimistic. Stay in the middle and you will survive! ;)!
Love you all,
Claude
July 13th, 2006 at 3:40 pm
This is not a good short term predictor. As I said, there will be some months of 5 days and some months of 18 days. This is just showing an average timeline. I noted that IF you want to compare a specific LID then add or subtract two months to what is shown. But even that could be off.
It is based on days.. just days, not business days. It is not designed to pinpoint anything, it is only designed to show the long term timeline based on continueing with the current trend.
July 13th, 2006 at 3:41 pm
wunone16, Vietnam recently reopened to international adoptions, and I think the wait is shorter. If I wasn’t so incredibly invested in China for various reasons, I’d be checking that program out myself at this point.
July 13th, 2006 at 3:45 pm
RQ thanks for the info and the site. I am definitely on the cliff): With a 3/7/06 LID, I just can’t imagine waiting until June 2008. When I started the process no word was mentioned about increased wait times. Although I understand that IA is unpredictable, I chose China for their stability. If they continue at this pace I will definitely have to look into another program. If the wait goes as long as predicted the option of adopting again from China will be almost impossible. Urgh!!!I just wish they’d give us some kind of insight. Hanging from a thread and walking on a tightrope SUCKS! I can’t even imagine what it must be like for all of you that had the unfortunate circumstance of getting caught up in the wait before us. Again, thanks for the info, good or bad its all we have:) I’m sticking with the all of July in July and grabbing a drink. I’m buying anyone care to join me?
July 13th, 2006 at 3:48 pm
What happened to the CCAA just telling people with Nov LID’s they would only have 4 more months to wait. I just absolutely refuse to believe the worst case scenario is the true scenario!!! I refuse to believe the CCAA would lie to people’s faces repeatedly with the same answer. I think I’m going to go for Rumor Queen’s suggestion….step away from the computer, go outside, and breathe. (or melt with our heat in the south)
July 13th, 2006 at 3:49 pm
And remember, the heading for this thread is “Worst Case Scenario”.
Let’s all take some deep breaths and not focus on something that may never (and likely will not) ever happen.
July 13th, 2006 at 4:04 pm
I think some of you are looking at the chart and not the words around the chart.
This whole post is in reaction to what I was told that precipitated this post:
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/07/13/coming-down-from-the-mountain/
Because of that post, I wanted to see what would happen if the status quo doesn’t change. The whole point of that is that they HAVE to do something. Don’t they?
July 13th, 2006 at 4:09 pm
Our agency also just opened up in El Salvador…the wait is not quite as long, but it’s also much cheaper. It would be our only option to switch to since the $$ is running out.
July 13th, 2006 at 4:15 pm
Oh, and BTW, I didn’t title this “worst” case scenario for a reason. The worst case scenario, in my mind, is for them to stop issueing referrals. I don’t think that is going to happen, but I still felt it would be tempting fate to call this spreadsheet the worst case scenario.
July 13th, 2006 at 4:31 pm
What’s the longest the wait has been (excluding SARS)? Does anyone know?
July 13th, 2006 at 4:33 pm
A tad over 14 months.
And then the quota brought it down two months at a time.
And then SARS happened and it very shortly went back up before plummeting down.
July 13th, 2006 at 4:40 pm
I had a craving for Chinese food and picked some up for lunch. I just cracked open the fortune cookie. It says, “What doesn’t destroy you makes you stronger.” Let’s hear it for the strongest group of people I know…..US!!!
July 13th, 2006 at 4:46 pm
Hello Everyone,
I am just reminding myself that the last batch of referrals was the largest group we have seen in awhile. I believe that was the turning point in this wait. Of course we won’t know until we see July, but that helps me sleep at night, along with a strong drink.
We also received our wristbands yesterday, and I am looking for my purple bandana!!
LID 8/10
July 13th, 2006 at 4:58 pm
I am confident that there will not be a 2-3 year wait. I am confident that an organisation like the CCAA, having run int. adoptions like a well-oiled machine for years is not taken by surprise when it comes to “supply and demand” (excuse the merchantile language). I am confident that this wait is man-made and for political reasons (Olympics) only. I am confident that the wait will be one year from LID to referral because that is the case with a number of other countries doing int. adoptions and therefore China will not stick out in a negative way. I have a 04/11/06 LID and I am confident that I will get my referral in April of 2007 and go to China during the (hot) summer. May I add that I am not usually a confident person when it comes to these matters. But on this one I am!
July 13th, 2006 at 5:00 pm
I am already going nuts with this wait. If the chart is correct then we will have to wait until April 07. NO WAY!!!! That just can not be right!?! I am sticking to my gut feelings, that we will get our referral in October. It will be a HAPPY Happy Halloween!
July 13th, 2006 at 5:05 pm
Wunone- Ethiopia has a short wait time… around 4-6 months (or less) for healthy infants, many under 6 months some as young as 2.5 months on home coming.
July 13th, 2006 at 5:47 pm
Everyone-
Take a deep breath and hook up your Margarita I.V. s. I really hope this is truly a “impossible worst case scenario”. There is no way this will ever happen, although in my worst nightmares, it does. I for one, will remain optimistic, and stick with the 12-14 month rumor. They know how many dossiers and how many babies there are – it will all come out fine!
Oh, my bag’s empty – back to the blender!
July 13th, 2006 at 6:26 pm
WaitingforAllie – My agency also led me to believe I could not become pregnant either. I thought it was a Chinese policy.
Mom2Isabel – We are the second strongest group of people (I think). Second, because our daughters are the most strong little ones, who find themselves suddenly alone in the world. Who will be taken from everything they know to a different world. They will be strong enough to adapt and thrive.
DaniWestRN – We looked into Ethiopia about a month ago. Despite promoting short wait times, we were told that children under two take 9 months minimum. This was told to me personally by the directory of the largest agency working in Ethiopia.
July 13th, 2006 at 6:27 pm
Oops. Typo alert – directory should be director. :(
July 13th, 2006 at 7:08 pm
Vanburen: I am feeling confident, too. Yall, lets calm down a tiny bit and breathe in and out. If you’re a praying person, pray a little. We all chose to adopt from China for a reason. Stand firm.
July 13th, 2006 at 7:39 pm
merci bien, monsieur cellule, for your cheerful french canadian bounce and cheerful approach!
From all we’re reading: it could speed up. it could slow down. It could stay the same. Who knows?! I’m starting to feel like I’m in the high-school cafeteria, grey suede purse hanging over the back of a metal chair, feathered haircut and a paper plate of fries & gravy -
“I think he looked at me?”
“Did he?”
“Yeah, I coulda swore he waved at you.”
“No, he always flicks his hair behind his ears like that, it just looks like a wave…”
“No, really, I swear this time he was waving ‘hi’ and trying to catch your eye.”
“Omhygod really? He did? What does that MEAN?
“It means he likes you, spazz. You should go over.”
“I can’t? What if we’re wrong? What if he wasn’t waving at all. I’ll just..I’ll just wait here. Tell me, what’s he doing now. Can you see him?”
“He’s picking up his books…. he’s getting up…. he’s walking over here–oh my god — he’s… walking out he’s..leaving. Oh well, maybe tomorrow….”
Where is Maria-from-Spain and her tone of calm certainty? (& where was she to set me straight in 1985?)
July 13th, 2006 at 11:47 pm
I was at my dr’s office today, and there were a ton of babies in the waiting room. I was looking around thinking maybe we should rethink fertility treatments, maybe we should do something else? I don’t know. I really want to be a mommy. All this uncertainity is so hard. We choose China when the wait was 8-10 months. We thought we would be getting our baby this year. Everyone said that putting together your dossier was the easy part and the wait was hard. I believed them but I don’t think I put enough stock into what they said. We stopped talking baby a couple of months ago, we haven’t thought any more about the nursery or baby stuff. It is like all of those hopes and dreams are now stuffed in a rubbermaid container in the closet, waiting for “some day” when we can pull them out again.
I am glad we have this forum, because everyone understands how sad this all is. My best friend’s baby shower is Sunday. We thought we were going to be mommies together, figuring out the baby thing together, guess not.
Maybe July referrals will bring us all some hope.