18 months is the current recurring theme
It would appear that when the Australian info is released that it will say that the wait is expected to reach 18 months.
One U.S. agency states that the wait may level out in the short term but in the long term it is expected to reach 18 months.
Let me make this easy – almost every single email I have right now is saying something between 16 and 18 months.
The cynic in me says “well, we are past the 12 month range they gave us, so now they’ve given us another mark and will stick to it until we pass that, too”.
And I think the cynic in me will continue to say that until they either start referring three weeks at a time, or until they share their plan for how they hope to start referring three weeks at a time in the near future.
But I’m not holding my breath for anyone to share their plans with us.
July 15th, 2006 at 9:46 pm
This is awful. 18 months now, by November it will be 24. Who wants the puke pail after I am finished?
July 15th, 2006 at 9:52 pm
Sorry I am such a bummer right now and have a terrible attitude. We are LID 05/15/06. I hate this power CCAA has over us. All of our lives are in limbo. Our dreams seem to be falling down around us. I know they have us by the ba-ls, but I feel they need to start conveying some information. Pee or get off the pot. If they want to slow things down so terribly, then tell us, so we can go on with our lives of either accepting it or going elsewhere. Of course, they may like this power game and will play it out?
July 15th, 2006 at 10:00 pm
Laural,
I agree. We have a LID of 5-17-06… and i am so bummed that we will potentially be waiting until at least November of 2007! It just stinks. I know that things change and one has to be ready for that in international adoptions… however, the planning that has gone into our adoption is meaningless now. We have a daughter from Kazakhstan and she will be 4 in a few weeks. When we started our paperchase, the wait was still 6 months so we were hoping that our daughter and the new baby would be 3 or so years apart. Now we are thinking that they will be 5 years apart and it saddens me. I just hate not having any control or answers. I have told myself to just go with it, don’t get overly frustrated… or excited but it is hard. I wish that we had some answers.
July 15th, 2006 at 10:14 pm
Sigh.
July 15th, 2006 at 10:37 pm
First of all, I’m so sorry you guys are looking at such dire numbers.
Please remember that most agencies want to tell people the worst case scenario so you won’t be disappointed and won’t be calling to harass them if your referral comes later than they told you. I think many of them (when I first applied – I have LID of 7/20/05) were posting a wait time of 6-8 months back then. Well, I’ve now waited 6 months x 2! So I think agencies are just covering themselves since THEY have no control over what China does. I know if I were running an agency, I would prepare families for the worst possible scenario.
I was prepared by my agency to have my daughter home in March, and here it is July with no referral possibly until August or September. I wish they HAD given us a better perspective of what was to come. My husband and I both changed jobs, with no worries of ever having to update our homestudy, etc. I took a commission only job so I could work from home and be with my daughter more. We made several life changes that now will make us have to do more updating of our homestudy. We based LOTS of things on that March travel we were “promised.” I hope ALL agencies continue to give worst-case scenarios. It beats getting your hopes dashed month after month. It would be so much better for us to have prepared for an 18 month wait but then been surprised (and overjoyed) by a 13 month one!
July 15th, 2006 at 10:40 pm
I am certainly as upset as the next person as we thought we might get referral this month and now must wait due to this move that has been rumor for forever and it happens NOW. Plus its likely that because of this we won’t travel till November. But as much as we are feeling sorry for ourselves, has anyone thought of the children?? If they don’t keep the pace and meet the quota of how many they allow to be adopted out each year, there are going to be precious babies getting older and older while they wait for their forever families too. Some of them may not be adopted out because of that, right? This just isn’t good for anyone. CCAA must like the power trip.
July 15th, 2006 at 11:02 pm
I think about the children too, how much older they will be at referral (if there is not a shortage like we hear at times), etc….. I don’t care how old my child is at referral. Don’t necessarily care if she/he is below a year old, but some do.
I know we are not “entitled”, per say, to these babies. China is doing us a favor and we have to “bow” to their ways. But we want to give them good homes and cherish them for our lifetimes. All I can do, each night, is pray that our child is being protected and nourished, to the best of China’s abililty, until they can come home to us.
July 15th, 2006 at 11:33 pm
I have to say I really do think that there has to be some truth to the talk about less children available, don’t get me wrong, I don’t mean huge huge amounts, but I do seriously believe that the numbers of people entering into IA though China have significantly increased! I do think that part of the reason things were so quick before is because they had a huge amount of paper ready kids, and now they are back to the usual. As much as I would like to think they are controlling this to some degree, I am guessing that they are not playing games, but are doing the best they can with what they have, maybe I am being totally naiive, I don’t know!
July 16th, 2006 at 1:25 am
I think the amount of people applying for IA has increased as well, but I think maybe there are more than enough babies in China. Just not “paper ready” babies. I think China is holding back paper work on children so that they can portray an image of prosperity to the rest of the world. Saying that people now want to keep their daughters and can afford to thanks to the current economic boom in China. I realize this sounds like a conspiracy, but I just think it all fits in with the current slowdown. I just worry for all of the babies left in the orphanages. It seems like a total waste considering the families desperate to bring them home.
July 16th, 2006 at 6:33 am
I agree, this all totally sucks, and after a while, you just lose the ability to stay calm, let it roll off you, after a while, you understand how it happens that good people, snap! :)
I will say that this last batch of referrals was EXTREMELY young, several 6 month olds, and lots and lots and lots (most?) of 7, 8 and 9 month olds. I don’t know what this means . . . but it could be reassuring. Also, could not be, I know.
My agency also noted on their website that during a trip to China to tour the CCAA they were told that last year the CCAA did 40K domestic adoptions.
July 16th, 2006 at 6:52 am
I can’t remember where I read this – thought it was the LWB blog but I just checked and it wasn’t – but somebody recently wrote about her visit to a SWI and how something like 80%+ of the babies they were caring for were SN, with a particular emphasis on cerebral palsy. The Director told that recently he’d had “a black day” when 17 babies (I took it to mean, 17 with CP) were brought in. Another seven the next day.
With reference to this and an earlier thread here about the increase in birth defects due to extreme pollution, “not enough healthy babies” is looking like it could be tragically true. It also underlines the rumour that the long term plan for IA from China is as a SN programme only. Thank goodness for the Tomorrow Plan and all those families who are able to adopt SN kids.
July 16th, 2006 at 7:18 am
The CCAA met with Australian agencies last week and advised that they are hoping to keep the wait to 12 to 13 months so I’m not sure where the 18 months has come from. At this stage we have to hope that they can achieve what they are saying!!
July 16th, 2006 at 7:39 am
Many people try to make themselves feel better by assuming that the agencies are giving us worse than the worst case scenario.
However, we thought the 12 months that many were told in November of last year was “worse than the worst case”, and we’ve now passed it by and been given another stretch.
I don’t think they are giving worse than the worst case. I think they are giving a date that will keep us from bugging them for a while. Six months past the previous “landmark”, and five month from what it currently is. Enough so it will be at least 6 or 8 months until we reach it and they stretch it out again, but that number won’t scare as many PAP’s away as telling us 3 years might have done.
Sorry, I’m being very cynical about this.
July 16th, 2006 at 7:56 am
Maybe RQ, but you’re probably right!
July 16th, 2006 at 9:04 am
Laural-You said what I have been feeling when you say we are in limbo and our dreams are falling down around us. When we were LID, we were told 6 months till referal. When that time came, we were told 6 more months. Now we are at that point and according to rumors, it could be 6 MORE months. I am starting to wonder if this is ever going to happen and am getting more depressed by the day. People around me have been pregnant, had babies and are pregnant again since we started this process. I feel like life is flying by and we are standing still. I know with IA we have to respectful and it certainly is a huge priveledge to be able to do this. I also know I will wait as long as it takes and will be forever grateful to China for this amazing opportunity…….but I just want to get on with my life WITH MY DAUGHTER.
July 16th, 2006 at 9:21 am
I have confirmed with my agency, (large) 2 days ago that the wait is still 12-13 months. I am wondering if the 18 month is for newere LID’s. We are LID 12/2/05. I hope this new lengthening is not true for anyone – can’t’ imagine waiting another 6 months on top of the timeframe we were expecting for referral in Dec. That would mean another whole year
NO WAY!!!
July 16th, 2006 at 9:39 am
wait4hannah – yes the wait right now is 12-13 months, were they willing to predict it would still be that in Dec/Jan when those of us with LID in 12/05 are at the 12-13 month mark or are they just reporting what it currently is? If they are saying what it currently is they are correct, but not inconsistant with an 18 month wait for us.
July 16th, 2006 at 9:47 am
Pam – you took the words right out of my mouth.
For everyone, if your agency says “the wait time is 12 to 13 months”… we KNOW that, we can do math, and we know what it currently is. If your agency is trying to play games with this then then try to get more specific, if you are told the 12 to 13 month thing and you have a December LID then say “oh, so you think we’ll get our referral in December or January?”.
If they say yes then please email me with this info and the agency. I’d love to know which agencies think we are about to start averaging a month per month. That would make my day. Maybe even my year.
July 16th, 2006 at 9:56 am
I wonder why the CCAA is not moving to get more orphanages “qualified” to submit paperwork?
There is not a shortage of babies/toddlers according to what I have read but there are MANY orphanages that the CCAA does not use that are overflowing with children.
July 16th, 2006 at 10:13 am
Hi there J,
I’m glad you brought up again the birth defects/pollution/SN thing again (I stopped harping on it because I was…well…harping on it) The skyrocketing birth defects is one aspect that ISN’T a rumour; it’s been studied and documented: we know it’s happening. Given China’s wild industial expansion, we can asume that it’s growing.
Also known, now, is that, in China, women’s reproductive systems (highly sensitive to environmental toxins) are increasingly not functioning normally, meaning more couples are going to turn to adoption out of physical necessity. All of this is totally out of CCAA control. At some point — when the in-China demand can absorb all NSN babies — I think CCAA will announce that the IA program is SN only. When they do, our LID dates and whatever we’ve been approved for will not be their concern. If they do not have the NSN babies, they do not have the babies. As a late ’05 LID, I do wonder if this will happen before I’m referred a child.
When we started the process, it was a 6-8 month wait. I’m stunned by how quickly it has changed, but our situation DOES mirror the out-of-control changes happening in China. The CCAA, like us, is at the mercy of these.
TO ALL late ’05 LIDs: If the children we’ll be referred 8-9 -10 months down the road (say, a respectable Feb – March – April 07)
are NOT EVEN BORN YET (or are just now being born), how can the CCAA know how many will end up in orphanges? be NSN? be available for IA?
For me, the most worrisome fact is that for Nov/Dec ’05 LIDs, the CCAA itself cannot know how many babies, or when, or even if it will all still be possible. (Am very much hoping RQ will come on and tell me I’m wrong & forgetting about such-and-such…)
I keep thinking back to that one rumour (in June? late May?) that RQ posted here, about the warning from someone in China that we may want to jump ship, & sooner rather than later. (I’m not saying we should — just recalling the rumour). RQ can you tell us more about that source? I do wonder what that person saw and knows.
this week i’m just readng & swimming & gardening, so I shouldn’t complain ’bout nuthin’….
July 16th, 2006 at 10:13 am
How true. Our agency always tells you what the current wait is i.e. what the LAST group to receive referrals wait time was, not what the future wait time will be. We all know that June 05 LID’s received referrals in June 06 hence they waited 12-13 months (depending on if they were early or late month lid). I wish someone knew what the future wait times would be.
July 16th, 2006 at 10:26 am
3blue – perfect logic. I wish I could shoot it completely down, but I agree with it. Well, most of it.
There are still full orphanages, so there ARE still babies. And we have one orphanage director who told families he isn’t being allowed to send very much paperwork in and that the reduction in donations is really hurting the orphanage. There were plenty of adoptable babies, he just wasn’t being allowed to send in paperwork for them. This tells me that this is a deliberate slowdown.
However, your points are valid. At some point, if things continue, then there will be as many people in China wanting to adopt as there are available babies. But, I don’t think (or maybe it’s just wishful thinking) that the late ’05 people are going to get caught up in that.
July 16th, 2006 at 11:29 am
threebluesteps – I think this is a topic that requires some harping! Like RQ I agree with most of your points.
It’s so hard. To want waiting families to have their children, but first and foremost for the children to have their families. (And like most of us I think that the best option [after staying with their birth parents] is for them to be adopted within China)
I had never put together the fact that they’re now receiving dossiers that will be matched with children not even born yet. D’oh! However…I also think the slowdown is, at least partially, deliberate. I can’t explain, my gut just tells me that things won’t get much worse. Maybe wishful thinking.
July 16th, 2006 at 2:36 pm
Does anyone know how hard it is to switch to Vietnam? Is there a lot of paperwork to do if our agency has BOTH Vietnam and China adoption programs?
July 16th, 2006 at 6:33 pm
NinasMom,
It would be some work from what I understand. Vietnam’s dossier is a bit different. However, I’m sure you could reuse many things. You might have to have your homestudy reflect Vietnam and you would probably have to file for a change with your I-171H that you are switching countries. My sister is with Vietnam waiting her referral. I really think that the Vietnam program wait times are going to quickly increase! They have less babies and many people are switching to Vietnam from China. Someone correct me if I’m wrong. What is your LID?
July 16th, 2006 at 6:35 pm
In regards to the 18 month wait thing… My LID is July 25th, so do you think they are saying that my wait is going to be 18 months?? Surely not — it won’t take that long to get through the month of July!!! When we started we too were told 6 months — at that time if they would have told me 18 months — I would have prepared my heart for that. This is ROUGH!
July 16th, 2006 at 6:39 pm
Zoesmama -I, personally, do not think it will be 18 months for you with a LID of 7/25. I would have guessed next month (batch after this) before, but now I don’t know, but I would think if you weren’t in the end of August batch, you’d surely be in the end of Sept., so I’d think not over 15 months, even now, but I know that still sounds awful.
July 16th, 2006 at 6:46 pm
Elabarating on the above, going with a worse(not worst) case that it will cont to take 3 months to get through most of the upcoming months, we wouldn’t hit 18 mo until the Oct LID (ie July, Aug, Sept for July LID; Oct, Nov, Dec for Aug LID; Jan and Feb for Sept LID; March, April, May for Oct LID). Looking at RQ’s polls I’m still hoping for a little better than that, I calculated out a plausable senario from those #’s that wouldn’t hit 18 months until next summer. Who really knows?
July 16th, 2006 at 7:25 pm
Pam,
I’m thinking the same as you. My heart is really set on the end of August but I know it could be September — I really can’t imagine it being beyond September but who knows at this point! THANKS! :)
July 16th, 2006 at 7:28 pm
Ummmm. Yeah.. I am SO not feeling May for a referral.. After years of dreaming for a child, I can’t even comprehend another 10 months!!! If we had to wait until May that would be almost 19 months… We are already past the 9 month mark and I would die if it extended that much longer… I feel like I did when our daughter died 3 years ago…. depressed and out of control.( sigh) I feel like there is no hope for a referral on some days… We were prepared for longer waits, but yikes!!! I’m so tired of answering ” I don’t know” to every single person I come into contact with. What a pain in the rump!! I hope that we are able to see something better in the next month or so… Funny farm here I come!
July 16th, 2006 at 9:18 pm
mcginnisc,
Oh my — you must have been to hell and back. My heart breaks for you. I’m so sorry for your loss. You stay strong!!! You will get your baby girl from China — hang in there! I really hope that things do pick back up very soon. Hugs to you!