Is it time for the good rumors already?
There is a post out there from someone with a November LID who says that BLAS told them that they will get their referral in November. Apparently BLAS is thinking that they will get through August with the next batch, and then September and October aren’t that big, and then they do November.
I’m filing this one in the “too good to be true” file for now.
But, ya know what? The last time I didn’t believe something BLAS said (about the move and delayed travel back on 7/11), it was true.
July 27th, 2006 at 3:32 pm
Sorry to be a moron, but what is BLAS? My LID is Nov 17 and would be over the moon with a Nov referral. Thanks!
July 27th, 2006 at 3:32 pm
Ohhhh I hope this one is true also!
July 27th, 2006 at 3:33 pm
Let’s hope this wonderful rumor is true!!! Although the CCAA really has to step up in August.
With a 12/20/05 LID, there may still be some hope to get our picture by New Years :)
I won’t get my hopes up too much, but this is a great rumor!!
July 27th, 2006 at 3:35 pm
Any idea when in November their LID was? With LID of 12/16 that makes me hopeful that we wouldn’t be too far behind :) Except for the fact that Nov/Dec. are big months. . . A girl can dream though, right?
Karyn
July 27th, 2006 at 3:37 pm
Although this has been nothing but a crazy roller coaster ride, I have always said I would be thrilled if for some miraculous reason, I would see my little girls face by Christmas. Oh, what a present that would be, I would take December at this point.
11/18
July 27th, 2006 at 3:38 pm
So what would 24 August look like? Can someone call BLAS? I think Aug and Sept LIDs have the most uncertainty right now –esp do we redo the I171H? Since Jan I have thought that I would have a great idea once it got closer and this month did me in. I can’t predict it…Can anyone really know how far they will get?
July 27th, 2006 at 3:39 pm
Waiting4mybaby, RQ posted your answer in the last thread :) I’ve pasted it again here:
BLAS — Bridge of Love Adoption Services - translation and travel company that shares a building with the CCAA
someone else also asked about CWTS. . .
CWTS — China Women’s Travel Service - travel company that also works closely with the CCAA
Hope that helps clear things up :)
Karyn
July 27th, 2006 at 3:40 pm
With a LID of 9-29-05, I’m also putting this in the “too good to be true” file. I can’t let myself get my hopes up again. Yesterday was too hard for me to set myself up for such a huge crash again.
While I would give anything to have a Sept referral and be able to travel before my I-171H expires in Dec I don’t think that is going to happen.
July 27th, 2006 at 3:41 pm
Get through August? In the next batch? I would LOVE LOVE LOVE for this to be true. But I can’t believe it yet. I just resigned myself to a probable October referral.
Mary
LID 8/25
July 27th, 2006 at 3:43 pm
Nothing like a good rumor to cherish … if only for the weekend (-:
July 27th, 2006 at 3:44 pm
Mary- Me too, regarding October referral.
8-24 LID
July 27th, 2006 at 3:45 pm
Hey, we can enjoy it while it lasts…and it’s too good to be true, so it won’t last long.
July 27th, 2006 at 3:46 pm
This rumor may not be true, but this girl with a LID of 11/22 is keeping her fingers crossed. :)
July 27th, 2006 at 3:47 pm
Trying to decide if it’s worth taking home to my husband….
July 27th, 2006 at 3:53 pm
That would be awesome to get through all of August in August but I am a bit skeptical. My large China only agency has around 100 Dossiers logged in for August and approx 25 for Sept and then around 130 for October.
But who knows….maybe the move to the new building will speed things up.
July 27th, 2006 at 3:54 pm
Too good to be true sounds about right.
Would be interesting to know if BLAS has any better information on number of LID’s in the next few months than what RQ’s polls tell us.
As RQ’s analysis of her poll data show it would take quite an increase in total of number of referrals next month for them to get even part way into August.
We can all hope though can’t we!
July 27th, 2006 at 3:57 pm
RQ - thanks for passing this on, & a few desperate questions:
1. when did BLAS person give this information? (before or after knowing the July 13 cutoff this batch)?
2. When (date) did the NovLID person post this information?
3. Was the BLAS person aware of the CCAA-Australian gov’t official “wait extending to 18-months over the coming year” statement?
4. What Nov LID (early/mid/late?)
5. ????????????????????????????????????????
With a Nov LID, I don’t know whether to be hopeful or sick.
July 27th, 2006 at 3:58 pm
I believe this. I was saying earlier today that I have a feeling (yeah I know…counts for nothing!) that this whole “misinformed about the cut off date” thing and the mysterious “you’ve been matched” messages for late Julyers…? They’ve done more than they sent. They’re going to either send a (comparatively) huge batch next or send a few more soner than we’re expecting. TOTAL conjecture…but this fits my wild imaginings perfectly!
July 27th, 2006 at 3:59 pm
Holy Cow!!! I would love for this rumor to be true. With a December LID this is a wonderful rumor… I’m still putting it in my “too good to be true” file however I will enjoy it while it lasts!! Thanks RQ.. I love good rumors!!
July 27th, 2006 at 4:07 pm
This would be wonderful! It might actually mean friends who live nearby and we would travel at or around the same time. I can’t think of a better way to start this month.
Lisa
LID 26 July 2005
July 27th, 2006 at 4:09 pm
But wasn’t October a huge month for CCAA?
I guess it really is going to depend on if they have enough paper-ready babies. Wouldn’t it be great, though, if this were true?
Come on good rumors! We need something here!
July 27th, 2006 at 4:11 pm
j-
Maybe you’re onto something. I hope so!
My husband has ‘had a feeling’ all along that we would be traveling in October. Just last night I told him that was pretty much not happening, and he still said he thinks we will. If I bring this rumor home now, I’ll hear I TOLD YOU SO all night. Not ready for that yet. Now if we DO get our referral next month, I’ll be GLAD to listen to it.
Mary
LID 8/25 and not quite ready to get all happy again yet
July 27th, 2006 at 4:12 pm
COME ON BABY…BE TRUE!!!!!
July 27th, 2006 at 4:13 pm
Roller Coaster going up again???? I SO hope this is true.
I am going to try to forget I read this rumor (yeah, right!).
I have a feeling that J may be right. Never before in this LONG wait have I heard agencies tell people that they were matched when they were not. It is just too mean. I think that you are right J. Maybe they sent one batch and another is coming early August and then one late August for us late August Lidders. A girl can hope can’t she??
gnanna-(Hi from Colorado!) we are also debating if we should start our renewal too. Driving us CRAZY!!!!!!
I figure it is about time for something happy to happen!!
July 27th, 2006 at 4:14 pm
Like Mulder, I want to believe! But, it just doesn’t seem possible that they do a comparatively small batch in July and then get through a month and a half of dossiers in August? I’d really like to think that would happen, but it does sound too good to be true. I do like the idea that they’ve actually done more and we’ll soon get a surprise batch…that would be wonderful!
Caryn
LID 7/27/05 (its my LID-versary!)
July 27th, 2006 at 4:15 pm
clickety…clickety…clickety….
We’re also debating the whole renewal issue. Ours expires in December.
July 27th, 2006 at 4:26 pm
I’m with J!
I think we will someday be surprised when they really pour it on and get a good fast spell going.
There were 7000+ completed adoptions from China to US in 2005. Does anyone know how many there have been to date (referrals issued for fist six months doubled would be a good proxy).
No flames please, I am an accountant here so I think about these things. Even a 1,000 decline would be a loss of $6 Million dollars (approximately) for the orphanages, hotels and government fees)
July 27th, 2006 at 4:29 pm
I would love to believe J too!!!! With an LID of 6/15/06, this roller coaster is already making me sick! To all of you with those upcoming LID’s, I hope this rumor is in your favor!!!!
RQ…I love your site, thx for the hard work!
Caryn.. Happy LID-versary!
Kim
LID 6/15/06
July 27th, 2006 at 4:39 pm
Just realized I made 9 months yesterday. I am officially in my tenth month! Here’s to a fast next (last hopefully) quadmester (if a prenancy is in trimesters, can a year’s wait be 4 quadmesters? I had better get back to work).
July 27th, 2006 at 4:40 pm
Like OMG r u serious..that would be so AWESOME if they could get through aug. next month…Our LID is 8/11..i wonder what our chance of getting a referral next month is…hmmm
July 27th, 2006 at 4:44 pm
j,
I have a feeling in my gut that you are correct.
LID 5/10/06
July 27th, 2006 at 4:45 pm
It probably is too good to be true but we can all hope and pray that it’s not, right? I also would love just to have her picture for my Christmas present!
LID 12-12-05
Amanda
July 27th, 2006 at 4:59 pm
wrigsassy– Hi from SC–wish I was in Colorado…my 22yo son is there for the week and loving it!
I wanted to let you know that I started a thread in the forum to talk about “To renew or not to renew” so we can all put our heads together about how long is safe to wait to reapply for I171H (YUK)…so come join us..
July 27th, 2006 at 5:01 pm
Amanda -
Your LID is (2) days before mine… 12/14/05 - I’m drafting my letter to Santa right now…..
Dear Santa -
I have been very good this year, not to mention patient.. could you please make sure that I get my referral of my baby girl by Christmas…
I think that’s a good start!!
July 27th, 2006 at 5:03 pm
It may be true if you look at the fact that the serious slowdown has been before the move and after the Hunan situation. Now that they are settled in they may take more babies from the orphanages because they are able to place them time wise. I wonder if the rumors about babies sitting there while a small percentage are referred to CCAA for IA is political. They were moving and had a lot to do with that and less time to match so they had an unofficial “slow downâ€. I also think that the Hunan situation had an impact on the orphanages sending babies because of fear of getting in trouble. If with the new space and distance from the baby trafficking issues we will see a speed up? I am not sure that things can continue the way they are without finical losses to the government and orphanages, so something has to give or people will start to go elsewhere for IA. I think this is already happening as Vietnam has reopened with a shorter wait. Those of us who were unfortunate enough to be in the paper chase or early wait when this started to happen, have been the ones to suffer but those who know from our experience are choosing alternatives. I so hope this is true with a lid 11/23! I told my boss today it might be until 4/07 and she had such a look of feeling sorry for me because she adopted from China too.
July 27th, 2006 at 5:10 pm
RQ, if your post, “A review of what we know about the matching process” is correct, then this rumor is nothing more than speculation. No one, not even the CCAA, can know when those with November LID’s will get their referrals. That is determined by the number of Baby Dossiers that come in and only God Himself knows that.
I love your site but this post isn’t worthy of being included in it.
July 27th, 2006 at 5:17 pm
There is just no way I can really believe this at this point. That would mean CCAA would have to match nearly 1.5 months at some point in the near future. Given the situation that has existed for many many months, I just think this is more talk–and less truth.
If it’s too good to be true….it probably isn’t.
Sorry to be such a pessimist–but let’s be realistic here.
Liz in CO
July 27th, 2006 at 5:21 pm
j-
i’m with your “conjecture” girl! i have the same feeling as you do, maybe b/c we share the same lid (7/25), or maybe b/c i want to believe it as much as you!?!?
rq-
have referrals been sent more than once in a month? i think i have read somewhere that they have, no?
c’mon suprise “extra” batch!!!!!!
July 27th, 2006 at 5:35 pm
I’ve been paying a lot of attention to the Nov in Nov rumor since that’s my LID. I think it will happen. Why would the CCAA move to a bigger facility if there was a steady decline in abandonments? You don’t need more people and a bigger facility when you are going to have less adoption’s. Maybe they have a plan to open up more SWI’s for IA and they need a bigger facility to handle all of the new available children. I think they would have implemented quota’s by now if there were not enough babies and a thriving domestic adoption program. I’m still holding out hope.
July 27th, 2006 at 5:39 pm
OHHHHH!! I like your reasoning Somewhereoverchina! I had not thought that out. I do think that some of the room is needed for the bigger push on domestic adoption but why would they move if they they were just going to do the same numbers just more domestic. They must need the room for a reason.
July 27th, 2006 at 5:40 pm
Here is a history of when things sped up from my agency’s site.
LID 6/1/03-7/13/03 referral 3/11/04
LID 7/14/03-8/31/03 referral 4/10/04
LID 9/1/03-10/15/03 referral 5/3/04
LID 10/16/03-11/25/03 referral 6/8/04
LID 11/26/03-12/20/03 referral 6/15/04
LID 12/21/03-2/20/04 referral 8/2/04
LID 2/21/04-3/31/04 rererral 9/8/04
July 27th, 2006 at 5:49 pm
Hey
Well… if they are taling about November do they have a guess about when in August?? or if they may do 2 sets in August??
I know, they have not even changed the web site for this month yet and I am digging….
July 27th, 2006 at 6:03 pm
Hi :)
I’m sorry if this is a dumb question, but how would BLAS know? They share bldg. space, but does that mean they get scuttlebutt too? (Cool, if it does!)
Also, does anyone know if BLAS has a website?
I’m not expecting them to post info. there, just wanting to find out more about them.
Thanks & I’ve got my fingers crossed!
:)
wBw
July 27th, 2006 at 6:05 pm
PJ Mama I am with you.. 9 month pregnant on Monday, 7/24.
Enjoy the last month… Eat whatever you want, let your husband help with everything, go out to lunch with your girlfriends, and most importantly get lots of sleep!!! I just have a feeling that we will all be celebrating once they get rolling on August and September referrals. Enough with these labor pains, let’s deliver some babies!!
-D
July 27th, 2006 at 6:06 pm
I should Learn-My-Lesson this time and Finish the month on a Positive Note!
…must stop checking for updates…must get off the roller-coaster!
July 27th, 2006 at 6:10 pm
BLAS website:
http://www.china-blas.org/english/azq/jj.htm
But can I just say..? I was only talking about my wildest dreams, not probable reality. I’m not known for my psychic abilities!
July 27th, 2006 at 6:12 pm
Hey all,
I googled BLAS and did not come up with much but some of you may find this link interesting. It has pictures of someone’s trip and they apparently toured the CCAA and BLAS in 2000.
http://www.familyoffour.homestead.com/June05CCAA.html
Leslie in TN
July 27th, 2006 at 6:13 pm
Mary,
We are so hoping for you to travel in October! I am still saying that the wait won’t go over a year.
Curt
July 27th, 2006 at 6:13 pm
I know a couple that adopted a couple of years ago. When they started the wait time was 12-13 months, but then suddenly the CCAA started doing 2 months worth of LIDs at a time. Their wait time was only about 6 months. They had a lot of sympathy for me!
So, my point is that it is possible for the wait times to decrease. I think there are so many factors that go into this, but the biggest is the # of paper-ready babies compared to the # of paper-ready parents. One thing that may help is that with these long wait times the SN Waiting Children have become very popular, thus reducing the # of people waiting for NSN. Our agency has said that the CCAA has discovered that many families are very willing to adopt their SN children, and they are working on making that process much easier. I agree with amygum that Vietnam and other programs are also probably making the load a little lighter.
Gee, this board is addicting! OY!
July 27th, 2006 at 6:14 pm
Waiting Dad and Liz in CO,
They have purposely sped up before when they decided to get the wait to 6 months from 12 months. To fit in with what RQ explained about the matching process, CCAA would just tell orphanages to start sending more baby dossiers. Of course, that would mean that they are fudging a bit when they say that it is all about how many paper ready babies there are because this would mean that they are controlling how many paper ready babies there are. I’m not saying I believe it is true, but it is certainly in the realm of possiblility and worthy of a rumor site.
July 27th, 2006 at 6:27 pm
So did BLAS share office space with CCAA in the old or the new building or both?? I am going to start getting things together next week for our I-171 renewal, it has to all be at USCIS the first part of October, and some things like the child abuse clearance took us a long time to get back the first time. If we get referral before Oct. I will just not send it and the check to USCIS. Besides maybe if we don’t believe the rumor, and all start renewal, then it would be more likely to come true!!
July 27th, 2006 at 6:34 pm
Good morning all, 08.30am in Aussie land. I tend to agree with somewhereoverchina. Anyone with a good business head would not upsize if they weren’t planning on providing extra space for more staff, to up production levels. Sorry for the business like analogy. To go from 4 levels to 10, the overheads alone would be enough to make you cringe. So if anyone from CCAA is tuned in - with all those extra filing cabinets, shelves and computers, please get to work guys in your new office space and lets not go over quadmesters. You might have to redo our medicals for all the wine and chocolates being consumed during the wait!!LOL.
July 27th, 2006 at 6:57 pm
Hello all, I’m new to this forum and sorry for asking but… How do we know for sure that the referrals are coming for lid’s thru 7/13? We are 7/11 and I can hardly stand it… Our agency won’t give us any info at all they say they have not heard yet.. Also what is this info about possibility of having to stay in China longer? And to all out there waiting.. God Bless..
July 27th, 2006 at 6:59 pm
I agree with clemintine,
my best friends adopted 3 yrs ago and all of a sudden they were scrambleing around cuz the wait time sped up.
I strongly feel once the move is done(we all know when we move into our homes, we settle, BUT there is still a LOT of boxes to unpack months later….then we are efficiently running again. I feel the wait will go down too:)
July 27th, 2006 at 7:05 pm
Sorry but this girl isn’t getting on the ride this time. I can’t do this roller coaster again. My heart has been stomped too many times and I just don’t think I’ll make it through nif I start believing the good rumors again.
I’ve decided to stop saying “Next month we’ll have a better idea” because it just hurts too much when next month comes around and we’re still left wondering. I don’t mean to be a downer but this has been a really really long ride so far and I am ready to get off now.
July 27th, 2006 at 7:09 pm
I agree, too, with the business analogy. You don’t double your office space and add people to the payroll if you aren’t increasing “production”. This is a big revenue source for the Chinese govt. Like any govt, they aren’t going to drastically decrease revenue for the fun of it. Keeping babies in orphanages and having less IA’s just means higher expenses and lower revenue.
I agree with others that have said that now that the move is behind them and the Hunan crisis is, for the most part, old news……things will get back to normal. I predict they will take another month or so……but I think September is the month that we will see some turnaround. Its a slow month anyway and it will have given the CCAA a good six weeks in there new space.
We have a November LID and we would like to think we would at least have a referral by Christmas. Fairly, realistic (we hope)! :)
July 27th, 2006 at 7:10 pm
Maybe if we stay positive and send positive vibes out over this next month we will get the results we are all hoping and praying for!?
July 27th, 2006 at 7:34 pm
Not trying to be a wet blanket here but with respect to the office space issue CCAA is made up of 8 departments of which only two are directly involved in the process of reviewing and matching for IA (a third does handle finances related to IA). Also last fall the CCAA took over significant additional responsibility for child welfare throughout China’s SWI’s. To me this is a more likely explanation for the new office as opposed to a plan to ramp up IA.
July 27th, 2006 at 7:35 pm
THEY HAVE TO GET GOING!
July 27th, 2006 at 7:38 pm
Whoops. Tipping back the wine a bit as I wait for our referral and hit the key too soon.
Anyhow, I have SO many friends behind me that are waiting and I keep telling them that things will speed up and I would like to be right! I was certainly right about things crawling to a stop for a 6/30 LID and would like to be right about the rest of 2005, too!
July 27th, 2006 at 8:14 pm
Hey, I know this is OT, but concerning older children being SOL, what does SOL mean? I couldn’t find it in the FAQ. Any takers?
July 27th, 2006 at 8:18 pm
My referral group in 8/04 included LIDs with the date span of Dec 17, 2003 through Feb. 13, 2004. Anything is possible!
July 27th, 2006 at 8:20 pm
S–t out of luck
July 27th, 2006 at 8:24 pm
DJR & PJ Mama, I’m with you guys! 5 more days and I am offically full term 9 months paper pregnant. Guess it’s gonna be one heck of a long labor!
July 27th, 2006 at 8:24 pm
S*it out of luck
July 27th, 2006 at 8:28 pm
LMAO!!! PJ Mama & ADE, I didn’t get it at first! Now I do! Any more takers? I know RQ must know :-)
July 27th, 2006 at 8:35 pm
I read a post from a family traveling in China today, when they picked up their visa (they said) they were informed that the consulate had done just under 8000 adoptions to date this year. Just throwing a much desired number out there.
July 27th, 2006 at 8:35 pm
Hey has anyone considered the weather in China and how it effects the speed of adoptions? The southeastern area was just hit with a big typhoon, have had 5 already this spring, and typhoon season isn’t really in “high season” until August. Has anyone found a history of how this may have effected past years?
July 27th, 2006 at 8:41 pm
My ole’ heart can’t take this. I have really resigned myself to an October referral as most likely and a September referral as a dream come true.
Our I171H expires New Year’s Eve. We are hoping beyond all hope that we won’t have to renew.
LID 8/24/05
July 27th, 2006 at 8:58 pm
Perhaps this one comes from the same place as “all of July in July.” That one didn’t seem to work out so well. Let us all have a care for the condition of our hearts!
LID 7/28
July 27th, 2006 at 10:24 pm
{Italicized text edited by RQ, we shouldn’t pull direct quotes from a private group - sorry}
hi lmmom:
this is what “ask jane in china” had to say about the extended wait:
{paraphrased by RQ} All US families will continue to process immigration documents in Guangzhou. Only families with children from Guangdong province will be effected by the new rules requiring a longer stay.
hope that helps you :)
wBw
July 27th, 2006 at 10:26 pm
Oops, the reference to go with that quotation:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/askjaneinchina/messages
wBw