Analysis
As I’ve said before, the CCAA did a lot more matches in June than they did in July or August. (And, for the record, they did very close to the same number of matches in July as they did in August.) The “Bad Case Scenario” is based on the July and August numbers. The “Good Case Scenario” is based on the June numbers.
| Good Case Scenario | Bad Case Scenario | |
| September Referrals | 08/16/05 | 08/07/05* |
| October Referrals | 08/30/05 | 08/22/05 |
| November Referrals | Well beyond 9/11 | 08/29/05 |
| December Referrals | 09/07/05 |
Understand that the CCAA can do more or less or somewhere in between. But this is the best estimate of future months based on number of referrals made in recent months and projected out on the three most recent polls.
*Edited to add: If the CCAA is trying to make things look bad then instead of 8/7 we should say 7/28, as there are very very very few people between 7/28 and 8/7. And, since the cut off is 7/22 this month instead of 7/24 when it would have been so very easy to make it to the 24th, I suppose we do have to take into consideration that right now they may be purposefully trying to hold back.
August 28th, 2006 at 7:38 am
I know the CCAA has made it clear they can do anything at any time, but do they have any pattern with regard to sending referrals before national holidays? Do they mail them to arrive around the time they go on holiday - so we can expect them maybe around October 1st? Or have they historically sent them a little earlier - so we may hear something around 23-24 September?
I know it’s early days to be thinking about The Next Batch, and frankly I’m quite glad of the rest after the last couple of weeks, but this question seems to fit here.
Thanks RQ.
August 28th, 2006 at 8:04 am
I remember reading somewhere that the CCAA have a quota, decided on by the Chinese government. I also seem to remember reading that the “adoption year” in China ends in November and that they start on a new quota December 1st. Is it conceivable that the last two months of poor referral numbers is a result of the CCAA streching the number of children they are allowed to match according to this quota?
August 28th, 2006 at 8:39 am
Frankly, I think I would put the “bad case scenario” for September as just finishing the month of July. That would be another 9 days worth of LIDs. I used to think that September was our “worse (yes RQ, not worsT ;-) case” for our referral, and now I’m thinking that’s our “best.” This really bites.
080805
August 28th, 2006 at 9:00 am
waitingforAllie-
i hear that. i agree that ‘bad case scenario’ should be they just finish July. All weekend the DW and I have been coming to grips with probably having to wait until October.
oh, and for everyone:
found a card that I had to buy just for the front of it. it says…
“OPTIMISM: One should always hope for the best, but expect the worst. That way you’ll never be unpleasantly surprised when everything goes to he!!.”
how true.
August 28th, 2006 at 9:05 am
tgred & waitingforallie-
I guess the question of whether we re-do our I-171 has been answered. Even with the best case scenario we are cutting too close. Your thoughts?
LID-8/10/05
I-171-12/22/06
August 28th, 2006 at 9:06 am
Vanburen~ I’m wondering about that too. I will be curious to see if in December things speed up after the “new” adoption year starts. At this point I don’t think we will make it to China before the Spring.
LID 10/9
August 28th, 2006 at 9:16 am
coartney-
yeah, we pretty much have to start the process for the I-171H now. ours expires 12/6 and now that it’s kind of unlikely we’ll all get referral in the next group (Sept), we’re going to try to have everything sent in by the end of the week or next week so we can get the HS update scheduled with our SW and get everything to the USCIS as soon as we can.
LID 8.10.05
August 28th, 2006 at 9:19 am
probable scenario I would think is referral late Oct….travel early to mid December. Any of us ‘early’ August LIDders with a December I-171H expiration will probably need to be re-doing it.
(of course our luck would be we spend all the money and the CCAA ends up matching us this next time…ugh…but can’t take that chance now unfortunately)
August 28th, 2006 at 9:23 am
I’m optimistic too, for more than one reason. Firstly, in terms of numbers of dossiers, RQ’s projections, particularly her “real world” numbers, have been so close to the mark that I trust her implicitly.
Secondly, DW and I were sitting on our patio last night watching a British Movie (”The Girl in the Cafe”, it’s excellent - try to catch it on HBO this month). There was a point where Bill Nighy’s character is talking about trade with China. At the very moment he said the word “China” a bright red ladybug flew in between DW and I and landed on the TV screen, right on Bill Nighy’s forehead. This is the first real ladybug my wife or I have seen in South Florida this summer.
I don’t know what most of you regard as signs, but with an LID of 8/9/05 and the last set of referrals now done and dusted, the appearance of this ladybug convinced DW and I that there is probably good reason to be excited at what the end of September might bring.
August 28th, 2006 at 9:31 am
paulm-
that is pretty cool about the ladybug (and thanks for the tip about the movie…will try to catch it…or DVR it one of the two) I hope that things work out better than we think. I’ve maintained optimism through this whole process, but this last referral group was like a punch in the gut. and as for signs…I do believe in them most of the time…but the only one I really saw from this last outcome was a big finger. LOL ;)
August 28th, 2006 at 10:00 am
I will just be glad when my referral dates starts to show up on an “analysis” grid… with a 12/14 LID I’m starting to feel like it will be months before our date even shows up on anything… very sad.
I also agree that it seems like they are stretching out the numbers to make it to then end of the adoption year… maybe that’s where all of the talk about the CCAA knowing what LID’s will be included this year and which ones won’t.
Hoping for some good news soon!!
August 28th, 2006 at 10:05 am
paulm143, boy do I hope you’re right. That would have “freaked me out” but in a really good way! How cool is that?!?!
coartney, we have not yet started officially, but we are DEFINITELY going to re-do the I-171h….and tg made me think to put it on my urgent to do list within the next week or two. Ours expires 12-20, our homestudy expires 12-13 (? I think ?)….but we were waiting to redo the hs for when we move. See, that’s ANOTHER thing dh and I are waiting for (boy, we’re getting GOOD at waiting!)…we sold our house, but are WAITING for the buyer’s lender to do his job so we can close…and then move out. Since we are building a home that won’t be ready until January, we will be moving into a townhouse in the meantime. We are waiting to do our homestudy update at that time…and yes, we will have to do it AGAIN (for post placement anyway) in January or so….because we are moving over the state line! SO MUCH TO DO! We need to go to China and bring our Allie home before we move to SC. (we live in NC now)….too much paperwork.
August 28th, 2006 at 10:08 am
I will agree that if the CCAA is trying to make things look bad then instead of 8/7 we should say 7/28, as there are very very very few people between 7/28 and 8/7.
And, since the cut off is 7/22 this month instead of 7/24 when it would have been so very easy to make it to the 24th, I suppose we do have to take into consideration that right now they may be purposefully trying to hold back.
All speculation, of course.
August 28th, 2006 at 10:12 am
tg,
I wanted to comment on your probable scenario….I’m not giving up hope about September referral, but I DO NOT LIKE the NOT KNOWING of it all. It really ticks me off.
If we don’t get our referrals until late October, I really do not think that we would be traveling early December. If that’s the case, then that would make me happier than I’ve been the past couple of days…However, I was anticipating a late NOvember to early December travel with a SEPTember referral. When I push that to October, I just assumed to push out travel a month later too….which would really stink considering the whole CNY and such. I really want Allie home for Christmas this year. So many people are counting on it.
Again, a note to Coartney about I-171h….putting out the extra money and effort is a pain in the behind….but it would definitely behoove us, since it’s that close…..to avoid a possible situation where our documents expired the day before we leave or something and we can’t take our children out of the country…..$25,000 later….what’s another $1,000 or so?!?! JUST KIDDING!!! ANyway, dh and I are definitely going to re do. Darnit.
August 28th, 2006 at 10:48 am
waitingforAllie-
you do have a point. I guess I’m being…hmmm what’s the word…optimistic…that TAs will at least come in at a decent time. ;)
August 28th, 2006 at 10:48 am
RQ, why do you think the CCAA would be purposefully holding back? Am I crazy to still be thinking (hoping) that we will see another batch of referrals in a week or so?
August 28th, 2006 at 10:52 am
I was not, in any way, thinking that another batch would come out in a week or so….that’s only happened once or twice since I have started the process. HOWEVER
August 28th, 2006 at 10:53 am
tg,
I would expect nothing more from you than your realistic optimism. THat’s why I look for your comments first!
August 28th, 2006 at 10:55 am
sorry, about the however comment…..I guess RQ blocked me. not sure why.
August 28th, 2006 at 10:57 am
Well, I’ve got to get back to work now…signing off. Be sure to send some smoke signals my way if anything real exciting happens!
August 28th, 2006 at 11:14 am
I was wondering if any of the other agencies have gotten LID’s for families that were DTC after the CCAA moved? Our agency has received LID’s after the move, but they’ve all been for families DTC before 7/16/06. Our agency is non-China only - medium sized…
Just wondering if they are holding dossiers sent after the move, because they are going to be affected by the proposed changes…
August 28th, 2006 at 11:23 am
Dear TGredthread and the rest of the Waiters:
Here’s another appropriate card for the day….
“First thing each morning….
I try on my bathing suit.
Then, nothing worse can happen the rest of the day!”
Happy Monday! :)
Praying for big things from China!
-DJR
August 28th, 2006 at 11:25 am
OMGosh — DJR — toooooo funny!!!
August 28th, 2006 at 11:26 am
Has anyone’s agency commented on last week’s referral surprise?
Specifically the agencies whose reps spoke to CCAA the day before and were told there was no news?
August 28th, 2006 at 11:27 am
WaitingforAllie - I haven’t done anything. Did you maybe try to put some html code in or something that the software kicked back? It wasn’t me.
But, someone has left an open italics somewhere, I need to find it and close it.
August 28th, 2006 at 11:28 am
lilbug
I was dtc July 21 and have a LID. Others at my agency, who were DTC after me, have also received their LID’s.
August 28th, 2006 at 11:40 am
I planned on emailing the person at our agency…after all the dust settled in a couple of days. They mentioned being surprised on their post about it last Thursday though. go figure.
August 28th, 2006 at 11:42 am
Just thought I would let any of you who have read about my missing referral know that it has been resolved. The CCAA changed my LID from July 18 to the 26th. So we now wait one more month.
August 28th, 2006 at 11:46 am
Okay, the open italics was in WaitingforAllie’s truncated post, there were some other html codes in too before it was truncated… so try it again without the html coding WaitingforAllie, that was the problem.
August 28th, 2006 at 11:50 am
sweetAnna, I’m so sorry to hear you’ll have to wait another month! Did they give you any explanation for why they switched your LID?
LID 9/29
August 28th, 2006 at 11:50 am
postfarm,
I spoke with my agency this morning and they are very disappointed and concerned. They have a family that is LID July 27. No hard facts though. Just acknowledgement that all the rumors, delays, secrecy, etc. are begining to concern them.
LID 5/10/06
August 28th, 2006 at 12:07 pm
I read this daily but have never posted. We are DTC july 27 and LID August 10. We have a very LONG wait!
August 28th, 2006 at 12:14 pm
waiting4ash,
How nice that you have an agency that is at least acknowledging that they are beginning to feel concerned. My C/O agency just tells everyone to stop looking on the apc and rumor sites. We are not stupid. We know that the only people that truly know what is going on are the higher ups in China. It would be so nice though if my agency would just say something like “yes, we are a bit concerned too, but try not to worry, we are doing everything we can to find out what is happening…”
August 28th, 2006 at 12:54 pm
hi,
i’am from belgium. the agency for china had a visit from ccaa that confirmed the 12-14 waiting time.
i have a question : is there somewhere where i can find the official numbers (in and out) for china ?
August 28th, 2006 at 1:06 pm
evanston,
Thanks for your post. Do you mean the CCAA confirmed to your agency that they will (are are trying to) stabilize the wait at 12-14 months? (Oh - and not sure what you mean by official numbers in and out for china) … thanks!
August 28th, 2006 at 1:23 pm
i ‘ll try to give an accurate translation
“after a visit of ccaa, ccaa has confirmed that for now the wait will stay between 12-14 moths. ccaa will tell when this will change”
number in : number of parents that have a lid in for example july 05.
number out : number of childeren adopted in for example july 06
August 28th, 2006 at 1:52 pm
Our LID is 11/18. If only one week of LIDs is covered each month, that means we will be traveling mid-late January or Feb 2008 (depending on whether Sept. 06 referrals go thru the end of July or 8/7, as shown in the above table). I guess anything sooner than that is good news. One bright spot, if this is indeed a new timetable yardstick, we will only have to re-do our I171-H once…..sigh…..
August 28th, 2006 at 1:56 pm
RQ….sorry about that! I don’t know what happened. (shoulder shrug). Have a great day!
August 28th, 2006 at 4:11 pm
waitingforcelia,
I don’t know if the person who gave our agency the LID info. messed up the date or is the CCAA just changed it. It is different than what they gave us is all I know. Who would have thought!
August 28th, 2006 at 4:35 pm
nikita, Thanks I love my agency. As I have said before they are very small. Our case worker, who hanldles China and Vietnam, has less than 30 families total. She knows everyone personally. She has 2 families ours and another who have serious health concerns that could be turned away if we are not grandfathered in and even if we are and the CCAA isn’t applying the rules consistantly we could still be rulled out.
3 years ago my husband had his aeortic valve, part of your heart, replaced. If it is true about organ replacement we could be automatic rejects. :( We both also take anti-depressants. Double Whammy!
Our agency has previously had the “Would we would be willing to switch programs, if it comes to that” discussion with me and assured us they are here for us.
I just think they are trying to cover all their bases and it is better to be safe than sorry. The attitude is kind of like “lets not go running off the deep end just yet, but there’s enough going on that it makes you go hmmm.”
August 28th, 2006 at 6:04 pm
I am going to pay to have our homestudy redone now, he said it would take a couple weeks, but not send it to USCIS until the Sept. referrals come out, if we don’t get our referral then I’ll send it in. Ours expires on 12-29, our agency said you have to be in China and fill out paperwork, not home before expiration. Would like to save the I-171 $ if possible. TG I am still hopeful for September… LID8-9-05
August 29th, 2006 at 9:22 am
smalltowngirl,
my agency said that I have to be HOME before the expiration….well, actually that the I-171h needs to be valid through the whole travel. I suppose if it expired while we were on the plane flying over, I don’t know, the Gulf of Mexico or something, that it would matter….LOL…
I know that there are some agencies that are telling their families that the documents need to be “good” only for the signing of “stuff” while in China….and some, like mine, are saying it needs to be good for the whole trip.
Our LID is 08-08-05, and our I-171h expires 12-20-06….I am going to have to re-do it all…it’s cutting it WAY too close, even with a September referral. I don’t remember how quick NC was to get this form, so it behooves us to just do it and get it over with. Once that happens, then I will just put that extra money I spent on it out of my thoughts. Just forget about it. ;-) I’ll try my best anyway!
I will agree with your agency about waiting if in fact you know that your state is pretty quick with the turn around. I personally don’t know about my state.
Anyway, best wishes, and I’ll see you in China one of these months!
September 21st, 2006 at 1:33 pm
Waiting4Ash, my husband has had two surgeries for his aortic valve in 2001 and again in 2002. I would love to chat further with you since I, too, share the same concern - right down to the anti-depressant (for me). Any way to reach you?
Good news, my husband had already had his surgeries for our first adoption. Our agency feels there is no cause for concern and did not recommend any letters or additional medical info from his cardiologist so I can only hope they are right.
LID 7-25-06
September 24th, 2006 at 2:32 pm
At what hour of the night might the European countries know anything?