Yearly Quotas
I have last year referral numbers and this year referral numbers for a handful of agencies. I also have SN numbers from last year and this year from some agencies. I do not have enough information to give an absolute “this is the way it is across the board” declaration. However, if these agencies are representative then what it tells me are that NSN referrals are down (way, way, down - less than half as many for some agencies for referrals this year vs last year) and SN adoptions are up enough that the State Department numbers may end up being close to the same as last year.
This makes me wonder if the CCAA has a set number of babies they will allow out of the country each year (and thus, each month), and if they are timing the SN TA’s and the NSN referrals in an attempt to keep the numbers for each month about the same. So, for every SN TA that is given out, that is one less NSN referral that can happen that month.
Or, maybe it is the other way around - they refer out as many babies as comes in and then give out SN TA’s for however many “slots†are left that month.
If the “x number of adoptions per month” thing is indeed true, I wonder what next year’s numbers are going to be.
It occurs to me that the slowdown started in October of last year, which would have been the first referral group to be actually adopted in December (which is when the new year starts for the CCAA). Is it possible that October of this year will bring another big change? A change for the better or a change for the worse? There is the theory that they have matched farther than they have sent… are they planning to play catch up when the new fiscal year arrives?
This post is a little bit of analysis and a whole lot of speculation. I have no rumors to back me up. Just think of it as another theory to add to all of the other theories floating around.
August 28th, 2006 at 12:16 pm
I’ve wondered about this too. If it’s true then the same slowdown will occur again towards the end of their adoption year so to speak if they kick it into gear by December. Or else this is their way of getting everyone prepared for a small amount of LID’s to be issued each month (even though more may be matched) to even out the year.
I sure do hope we hear something…anything… from China soon.
UGH!
August 28th, 2006 at 12:20 pm
ahhh. Here’s something (all in fun of course…lol)
we’re throwing another theory into the mix. I think we could take this big mix of theories, add some alcohol and create a drink for referral waits. call it something like “RQ’s Southern (Dis)comfort CCAA Theory Punch”
pour me a double! :) hehehehe
August 28th, 2006 at 12:27 pm
Am I right in thinking that October was also the month the new director took over? If so, it sure sounds to me that they had a huge policy change regarding procedures/numbers in October, including a new guy to make sure the new thinking was followed. It just seems like there was such a definite shift in things that started that particular month.
August 28th, 2006 at 12:27 pm
that’s a riot, tgred. “southern (dis)comfort” — love it. LOL.
August 28th, 2006 at 12:32 pm
So this weekend someone asked me if maybe the orphanages were sending possibly sending the paperwork for the babies to the wrong CCAA address - or that it was being held until after the move and hadn’t been reviewed yet and could that have made a difference in # of referrals. Any thoughts on that?
August 28th, 2006 at 12:37 pm
tg
That “southern (dis)comfort line is priceless”.
August 28th, 2006 at 12:45 pm
OK, I am hoping you don’t mind but I need some clarification on speculations, see if I am reading too much into the speculation here.
Is it possible that then keeping the quotas could be an effort, as has been previously discussed here and on other sites, to refer more SN children then NSN? ANd there are so many reasons that this could be the case including, the limited domestic adoption opportunities that these children have.
Let me know. Thanks,
August 28th, 2006 at 1:04 pm
I’ve been away from the computer for a couple days, which was probably a good thing. And, while I don’t want to sound like Pollyanna, being without a computer, tv, radio, and the New York Times, got me thinking that even though referrals have slowed way down, CCAA has been holding at 12 to 13 months from LID to referral. At least that has been the case since about April or May. And, a lot of the talk (rumors) has been CCAA was trying to get the wait time to 12,13 or 14 months. I know that a few days of crisp Canadian air may have addled my brain, but I think I’m onto something. Of course, I may be proved WRONG when the next batch of referrals come out and the time between LID and referrals gets longer.
August 28th, 2006 at 1:14 pm
got an email from my agency today concerning the new rules.
they asked the ccaa today what’s up with the new rules:
they wil NOT be implemented overnight, those who are logged in are `safe`. agencies will know the new rules in time to prepair their new applicants. and apparently the only reason why we have to wait much longer then last year is because there are way more parents than children lately.
my agency hardly ever says anything and is ALWAYS right. so let´s call them `the agency that is always right” TATAR ;o)
this comment might seem a bit bossy, that is not the way it was intended though.
bye
August 28th, 2006 at 1:29 pm
dutchmomtobe:
Love your outlook. I’m with you!
August 28th, 2006 at 1:37 pm
I agree with hann23. The CCAA could be referring less NSN and increasing the wait time to encourage SN adoptions.
Nannareenie: The wait didn’t become 12 months until June of this year. It has been steadily increasing since last Oct.
August 28th, 2006 at 1:48 pm
Hey dutchmomtobe now I know who your agency is! (not the same as mine :)) Not that difficult to guess with only 3 Dutch agencies who have a China-program. I send an e-mail to RQ about this, because not only did they send out an e-mail. They even posted it on their website! I never ever have seen this happening before. This is highly unusual. And you’re right: the Dutch agencies are never wrong as far as I know.
August 28th, 2006 at 1:58 pm
dutchmomtobe,
Thanks for the info. You made my day. Another thing that made my day is Mary-Mia & Rod were referred twins!!!
August 28th, 2006 at 1:59 pm
ChildlessinKC: wouldn’t that be the wrong reason to let people switch to SN? I think people have to be 200% certain to know that they can handle SN. That’s why we didn’t go for SN. I think it is a very bad reason to switch just because of the speed and yet… it’s already happening by many people. Not my kind of way of waiting. We’ll wait although it’s really hard.
August 28th, 2006 at 2:00 pm
The Dutch Rule!
August 28th, 2006 at 2:01 pm
dutchmomtobe~ Thanks so much for posting! That is very encouraging. I hope it rings true!
August 28th, 2006 at 2:05 pm
dutchmomtobe~
Now you’ve made me hungry…TATAR is really close to………
Steak Tartare!!! :o)
August 28th, 2006 at 2:09 pm
dutchmomtobe=
is TATAR saying how long the wait will be-if CCAA is keeping it 12-14 months?
meg
LID 9/29
August 28th, 2006 at 2:10 pm
dutchmomtobe…Thanks for the info, between the rules change post yesterday and Ernesto heading our way here in good ole South Florida… I could use one “hopeful” thought. I am just waiting for the CCAA site to change to read…Nov LID out of review room… come on CCAA!!
LID 11/18
August 28th, 2006 at 2:11 pm
something about this makes me happier. It doesnt speed up my referral any but….if China is in fact still referring the same amount of babies (and that has increased and increased over the years). then, the wait really is because there are so many of us and also, maybe they will increase again for 2007.
August 28th, 2006 at 2:13 pm
Yes waiting for Lulu (or Jack), we do ;)! Dutchmomtobe, chinapuccagirl, Tiebie, me and all the other Dutch posters/lurkers are waiting for our children much longer than most of you. After taking the adoption-route, that is.
3, some of us already 4 years. And still no child to show for it. We know all about waiting, all about getting frustrated at the powers that be. But most of us, as far as I know, aren’t frustrated with our agencies. All three of them are great in their own way.
August 28th, 2006 at 2:15 pm
I also understand the NSN/SN ratio is dramatically changing. But I cant begrudge that. Its all very complicated.
August 28th, 2006 at 2:15 pm
I went to great pains on the other thread to try to keep the country out of it, and now I come back to this?
Come on people! Help me out a little?
I do not have time to go through and sanitize this right now, I was just making a quick check in on things. How frustrating. As someone said, once you know the country not that difficult to guess the agency.
As for FrankieandSuzie’s comment - I don’t think you read that right. They are referring about half as many babies this year as they did last year.
August 28th, 2006 at 2:19 pm
Meetingcate I heard about Ernesto on the news. You must be scared, esp. after New Orleans last year. I remember those images very vividly. Us Dutchies know a thing or 2 about the danger of storms and water, it is part of our national history. Stay safe!
August 28th, 2006 at 2:21 pm
I think it’s hard to keep the country unknown if someone’s user name is “dutchmomtobe”! :) Thanks for all the information, all of you from the “unnamed European country” — I feel much better than I did yesterday (although I’ll feel somewhat unsettled until we get that official announcement from CCAA).
LID 9/29
August 28th, 2006 at 2:21 pm
mclark35,
no, our agency didn´t give predictions about the future wait times, this would be impossible for them since they only post things they are absolutely surely positively sure about.
and I don´t feel offended at all…but we also switched from NSN to SN. it´s true that you have to be 200% sure to ask for a SN child, and the wait gave us the time to realise that we had the confidence and the desire for a SN child. but I agree with you that you should never switch to speed things up.
but we are very very happy with the decision we made. we are over the moon with our referral and anxiously waiting for our TA.
bye
August 28th, 2006 at 2:23 pm
Dutchmomtobe: Thanks for sharing this information with us! I have had a pit in my stomach all weekend thinking about the what if’s and I was very pleased to read what your agency has said about folks that are already logged in. We are DTC 8/24/05 and I just couldn’t imagine being told we couldn’t have our baby because I didn’t go to college!!!
I just wish our agency would give us an e-mail like yours.
August 28th, 2006 at 2:23 pm
RQ since the agency put it on their website, my guess is it is okay. Don’t worry about it, this news is travelling like mad through all the forums an e-mail-lists in the Netherlands. It is no secret anymore. Not the info, nore who it came from
I gave you the name and website of the agency, so you could check my resources, but have plans to put it here :).
August 28th, 2006 at 2:24 pm
sorry RQ, I should have chosen a different login name when I first posted, than it wouldn´t be so obvious.
August 28th, 2006 at 2:24 pm
chinapuccagirl,
I wonder if this is what’s happening. Lengethen time line, get more folks to swith to SN. (reminder this is speculation!, not even would qualify as a remote rumor)
My DH and I considered it. And figured out very quickly that we couldn’t handle how our agency did SN. Once their SN List comes out, it’s first come first serve to apply for the child. By applying for the child, you need to be 99% sure that you are going to adopt the child. Well, the list came out, we were interested, and found out that the children we were interested in, were off the list within hours. It’s really rockin for those kids. But ugh for us.
This pure wild speculation does kind of fit the other rumors out there about the push for SN and the analysis being discussed here. It is a horrible way to do it. People need to want to do SN. On the other hand, it could enlighten some folks that they can infact handle SN. Maybe they’ll apply to the program and be matched with a need they originally thought that they couldn’t handle. But they infact can.
More random thoughts.
August 28th, 2006 at 2:45 pm
I find it kind of odd that they might tighten restrictions but then perhaps exempt people from the tighter restrictions if they go the SN route. I would assume that if they tighten restrictions, they would justify it by arguing that they would lead to better qualified parents. (To be clear, I don’t believe this myself, but I’d assume that’s what CCAA would say.) But wouldn’t SN children need and deserve parents with MORE resources rather than fewer? Wouldn’t it be kind of hypocritical of CCAA to send the kids with greater needs to the parents they had defined as less qualified? Does this seem backwards to anyone else?
August 28th, 2006 at 2:58 pm
Uh…I’m kinda new at this abbreviation thing…
what do SN, NSN, and TA stand for?
August 28th, 2006 at 3:00 pm
As so often happens when we speculate, it is usually best to stick to what we know to be true for our own situations. I think each family that pursues SN or NSN for that matter has their own reasons for doing so, and all will live out their decisions daily when their child comes home. It is probably none of our concern as to why people choose to adopt SN; I’m sure there are many reasons. The bottom line is that when that parent meets that child and the child becomes truly theirs, speaking from experience with 2 of my own children running around the house, there is nothing that you wouldn’t do for that child. I think the battles that you have to face along the way, be they emotional, physical, or otherwise, become part of the life you have come to share with that child. Nothing can prepare you for having to watch your child struggle with medical problems. And yet, the bond and love that you share is sufficient and meaningful no matter whether the child is SN or NSN. I’m certainly just glad that, for whatever reason, there are people who are pulled to the SN program. It means that those little ones get homes and treatment that they so desperately need.
Hugs,
MamaC
LID 3/10
August 28th, 2006 at 3:00 pm
I am new and this is my first post. I have been lurking here since learning about the restriction rumors.
I spoke with 2 medium sized and very conservative agencies today as we are wanting to start our second adoption and are concerned about restriction rumors. One came right out and said that while they can not guarantee anything, they are being told that the changes being spoken of will be on future LID’s and that agencies will be given time to notify families to “hurry it up”. They expect to have a few months leeway given to them. The other hinted that they had been told the same thing by CCAA but would not come right out and say it. Both are mid-to large agencies, both conservative, and very reliable with reputations for giving out little or no info at all unless they are absolutely sure. And both also said that it is possible that the changes will be delayed even further as CCAA has not made any rock solid changes yet but has given both agencies the impression that they are coming “sometime”. Both agencies stated that the rumors are flying, and some of them (would not specifically say which) are probably not going to happen. Like I said, both said “no guarantees, China is in control” but they both believe there will be a grace period, to give parents in process of paperchasing time to adjust and to allow angencies to make adjustments to how they accept new applicants.
Not sure if this makes anyone here feel better, as it is nothing concrete, but it is direct communication from 2 reliable agencies, both saying the same thing. Just thought I would share.
August 28th, 2006 at 3:10 pm
I was reading an intertesting article over my lunch hour that gave the numbers for US Adoptions from various countries in 2005. The number for China (which was number #1 by almost double of #2) was something like 7,900. Do we have any way of knowing where this stands so far for 2006?
I’m sure this includes both NSN & SN #s’.
August 28th, 2006 at 3:25 pm
I want to make sure I word this very carefully, but I think it’s an issue that important for us to consider. Last week on Thursday, when MY world turned upside down (in a GOOD way!), I called my agency to ask them about the mystery referrals that we were all hearing about. My caseworker (who was completely unaware that some agencies had been getting referrals that day) made a comment that made me stop and think (which I hadn’t done before).
Her theory is that officials from the CCAA are reading this site, and some of their extreme secrecy these past few weeks was directly related to some of the comments/frustrations that people have posted here. She understands that we need to have some forum to voice our frustrations/hopes and fears, but she was wondering if such a public forum is really a good place to do so.
As I said, I hadn’t thought about it that way, but it makes sense.
RQ, I have read many of your posts that ask people to PLEASE moderate their comments and I read the frustration in your posts when you see something that is somewhat out-of-line. I’d hate for the CCAA to take even more drastic measures to show their displeasure.
That’s just my $.02.
Truly Blessed
DTC 7/8
LID 7/20
DOR 8/25 (13 months, 5 days after LID, 13 months, 17 days after DTC)
August 28th, 2006 at 3:26 pm
panda express:
SN is “special needs,” NSN is “non-special needs,” and TA is “travel approval.” See other acronyms in RQ’s FAQ (link above right).
2china4meimei: Thanks for that post - I would be beyond stunned for the rest of my life if anything different from what you describe occurs.
August 28th, 2006 at 3:31 pm
RQ - what do you think? Do you think we need to hush up and be tranquil and consider the possibility that we are being monitored? I know I’ve heard you say before that you seriously doubt it. Is that how you still feel considering the statement issued to the european agency and the hush-hush release of this latest batch?
August 28th, 2006 at 3:31 pm
i was under the impression that no one from China…specifically the CCAA, was ‘reading this site’.
August 28th, 2006 at 3:34 pm
If they are, I hope they aren’t opposed to tequila and chocolate!
August 28th, 2006 at 3:34 pm
Oh, BTW, my agency is one of the large, China only agencies.
August 28th, 2006 at 3:35 pm
Maddy’smom,
Ive asked just that. But, I think the best that can be done (short of waiting six months for the state dept figures) is look at the agencies numbers as RQ has just done for us.
Mamac.
I have two running around also. Well Put!! Nothing prepares you for a difficult diagnosis that you just can’t “fix” for them.
RQ
I DID read that wrong. ugh. double ugh.
August 28th, 2006 at 3:36 pm
lol aicram1966
and thinmints, and Bill/Ted’s Excellent Adventure, and wine, and…
that would be bogus.
August 28th, 2006 at 3:37 pm
Just a thought - what if someone outside of China is rading it and reporting it to the CCAA?? SOunds far fetched, but what if a relative of a CCAA director lives in California and is reading the site and then copies and pastes comments into an email and sends it to the CCAA?
August 28th, 2006 at 3:38 pm
I meant reading, not rading
August 28th, 2006 at 3:39 pm
How did ya’ll know I was working on a post about that?
I’ve posted it. We can continue the conversation there.
August 28th, 2006 at 3:51 pm
RQ –
Please help me out here.
WHY would CCAA think that people would expend $20,000 in pursuing International Adoption for significantly SN children, when SN kids are readily available through our own foster care system, and the States will actually provide adoption subsidies to the adoptive parents?
I mean, CCAA’s policies and regulations are at least as restrictive (and possibly MORE restrictive) than most
State’s adoption certification requirements, so WHY would people want to take on the delays and expense of international adoption instead of just supporting our own domestic adoption system?
Am I missing something????
August 28th, 2006 at 4:07 pm
Many of the things that are SN in China would Never be called SN in the US medical community. A child born with many of the things that China deems SN are fully correctable in the US/other countries with better health care resources.
August 28th, 2006 at 4:09 pm
CarolCarter,
I guess you are right as far as the US is concerned, but here in Europe the situation is quite different. In Sweden, about 20 (!) children a year are adopted domestically, a tiny figure even for a small country like ours. So the chances for domestic adoption here, SN or NSN, are more or less zero. So, for us, a longer wait WILL probably result in more international SN adoptions.
Just my two cents. :)
August 28th, 2006 at 4:25 pm
Adopting a “special needs” child in the U.S. is not easy. I couldn’t get anyone in my local children’s services office to return my calls. When I finally heard about a workshop and went to get the details, I was told I was needed as a “way station” for children while their bio parents work out their problems. I was told flat out to go elsewhere for adoption. The push is still for reunification with bio parents, and the need in my community is for short-term foster parents.
It can happen, and I admire the people who tough it out, but sadly our own domestic adoption system is very difficult to navigate.
I can easily understand why families go international. I want to be a mom!
August 28th, 2006 at 4:41 pm
I just noticed that in my last reply about TATAR I wrote ‘ that I have plans to put it here’ (the website). One very very important word was missing there: NO. I mean that I have NO plans to put it here. Sorry for that mix-up……
August 28th, 2006 at 5:49 pm
Carol Carter,
I am adopting a SN child from China. I don’t look at it in terms of money and I also don’t see a distinction between supporting “our own” and adopting internationally. We are all citizens of the world, aren’t we? Supporting “our own” means taking care of human beings, whether they are Chinese or American. Maybe you need to educate yourself on the SN program. As someone else wrote, special needs in China can be very minor and correctible. And our state DOES offer a subsidy for SN children, regardless of whether the adoption is domestic or international.
Why would I adopt a SN child from China instead of a child from the U.S. foster system? Because there’s one special little girl in China who was meant to be my daughter.
August 28th, 2006 at 6:08 pm
Unfortunately, the SN children that have been available through my agency’s WC list for the past several months have not been “minor” correctable issues, but have had significant medical issues. And the waiting time for referral is still quite lengthy, even from the WC list!
Having worked in the foster care system in my State for 19 years, I urge all of you to take another look at your State’s available children if you’re able to take on special needs. The laws have changed since the enactment of the Adoption and Safe Families Act, and currently the time in care grounds for severance of biological parents who can’t or won’t do the things to enable them to resume their parenting responsibilities are 9 and 15 months.
Why wait 2+ years to adopt from China???
August 28th, 2006 at 6:08 pm
I am with a med size multi-country agency, and they have said to me that the CCAA finds it amazing that we are wanting their SN children-so no, I don’t think they think those parents should have more means to take care of those children. So I can see them increasing the amount of SN vs NSN. As far as someone being upset by how their agency does SN lists-mine does it similar, and I find that method far better then being evaluated by a board of people that decide who gets what child. I know there are many agencies that do their list that way-can you imagine getting that phone call telling you that they think another family would be better suited for the child you are wanting? I prefer first come first serve.
Let’s hope if the CCAA is lurking on RQ that they will start leaving comments/clues of what is to come. LOL just kidding-just don’ t think that it is the case. They very well may be sick of hearing from agencies about numbers and policies, so they have shut everyone down.
Everyone head over to Salsa in China-those twin girls are so incredibly cute-so happy for them-Just made my day!!
August 28th, 2006 at 7:21 pm
CarolCarter- good point about checking states’ situations again. I feel the need to add also that a lot of us (not all) have experienced years of infertility, so the wait isn’t just 2 years for some of us. It has been 4, 7, even 10 years already. Many of us have experienced pregnancy losses, and I for one can’t bring myself to adopt domestically through the foster care system for fear I will become attached to a child only to have it taken away from me when the bio parents show a bit of hope. That is great that people are out there who can take care of these kids, but I am not one of them.
A dear friend of mine has had 4 adoptions fall through, and the last one the birthmother changed her mind at the last minute, and two weeks later the birthmother was in jail for drug charges. I realize this is not typical, but I think I can speak for many of us who are at the end of our ropes emotionally and don’t want to risk our hearts again. So please try to see it from another’s standpoint.
August 28th, 2006 at 8:50 pm
Lilysmom — well said. My sentiments exactly.
August 28th, 2006 at 9:52 pm
Hey Dutchmomtobe! As a Mum to a special needs child, let me wish you as much pure joy and happiness as we have had. I would never have believed how much that child could change my world (for the better). I was prepared to love, but have received so much more. It’s been a truly amazing journey. Good luck.
Ps. hi, lies1976. How goes pilates?