The Numbers exercise, again
We’ve done this before. The labels on the left hand side show the month referrals will arrive. The numbers at the top show how many average LID days per batch that are done in a month. Decide how many days you think the CCAA will do in a month and then find the square under that number that includes your LID date and then look to the left and see when your referral will arrive if they average that many days per month.
As an example, the blue cells show possible referral dates for those with a LID of 10/15. If they average 9 days per batch their referral will arrive in May (19 month wait), 15 days per batch it will arrive in January (15 month wait).
The months given assume the end of that month.
August 30th, 2006 at 7:22 pm
I think I just threw up a little bit!
August 30th, 2006 at 7:37 pm
I just joined you! My best possible scenario does not look great- I am not even looking at the worst possible scenario!!!!
Thanks RQ for crunching the numbers!
LID 5/29
August 30th, 2006 at 7:42 pm
That puts me at 11/07 with a 11/23/05 lid. That is really sad and I refuse to believe that I will wait that long. Denial is not just a river in Egypt :)
August 30th, 2006 at 7:47 pm
Help…I can’t breathe. What I thought was my worst case with a late Dec LID would now be a dream. I am off the chart alltogether if they stay at 9 days…Help…I can’t breathe…
Please oh please say this is not so!!!!!
August 30th, 2006 at 7:58 pm
Oh lord. It’s so much scarier to see it in a nice neat chart, isn’t it!??!! And I love spreadsheets. My whole job is spreadsheets. And yet right now, I hate excel with a passion!!
August 30th, 2006 at 8:02 pm
Looks like touch and go between Sept. & Oct., if one day less won’t it until Nov….. hanging in there with positive thoughts. Thanks for the analysis RQ! LID 8-9-05
August 30th, 2006 at 8:07 pm
Mixed bag. At least my LID now appears somewhere on the chart, even if it is in the last possible few places….I’m so numb right now nothing matters anymore.
LID 06/05/06
August 30th, 2006 at 8:10 pm
This has become so absurd that I’m happy just to be on the chart(in two rows!). How sad is THAT?
August 30th, 2006 at 8:17 pm
Sheesh. I just realized if they did 9 days a month I’ll have to re-do my finger prints and stuff not once, but TWICE. GASP! I’m turning off the computer now. I know i have some wine around here somewhere…
August 30th, 2006 at 8:19 pm
I’m really beginning to wonder if we will be included in the September referrals??????? I know I should be happy and excited but after the last batch it really crushed me!! I mean hard!!
LID: 7/26/05
August 30th, 2006 at 8:28 pm
RQ - thank you for the analysis, I’m sure its helpful for many to see. I’ve got a similar chart running. Its sad to think about, but we never know….this could all start turning around any month now. Wouldn’t that be great? Either way, we all eventually get there.
Any reasoning behind the referrals last winter that came twice a month for a month or two? That would be nice!
11/28 LID
August 30th, 2006 at 8:42 pm
RQ - you’ve made it so ez for me, since you inc. 1-6-06 (Our LID) in the table! I was just helping my 15 y/o with Advanced Algebra homework, and I am feeling a little mathed out. Thanks! of course some of the scenarios are sucko, but I can dream…..
August 30th, 2006 at 9:00 pm
7/26/05, I’m with you!!! We are 7/25/05 LID and I too was CRUSHED this month. I’m anxious for September to get here so I can see my babies face!
August 30th, 2006 at 9:01 pm
crazy4emily,
It may be small consolation, but from what I understand about fingerprints, you can let them expire and just renew them one more time when your referral gets near. The same if you need to renew your I-171H. I was told that when you send in a new I-600A, your old file is destroyed and a brand new one is created. That’s why you need to send in an updated homestudy and new copies of vital records (birth and marriage certificates, for instance). Therefore, you only need to re-do these things once—when it appears your referral is a few months away usually. Anyone can correct me if they have different information. This is how my large, China-only agency explained it to me recently. Hang in there.
LID 8/24/06
August 30th, 2006 at 9:25 pm
Imfielding, your comments are exactly what I have been told, too. Although, some states are more timely than others. It was difficult writing that check..*sigh*
Zoesmama, I’m so sorry. Keep your chin up, it’ll be here soon. Maybe….just a big maybe, they will have some August matches, too.
Peace-lid-8-8-05
August 30th, 2006 at 9:31 pm
jfkof3, Thanks! :) I certainly hope and pray that they get into August!!! ;) This wait is torture! I have to redo all of my paperwork for the I-171H so I’m going to be busy getting that all done — hopefully the next few weeks will pass by quickly.
My oldest daughter (14) was rushed to surgery yesterday morning to have her appendix out, we just got home this afternoon — all day yesterday during the drama, I kept thinking, how can my baby be 14, where did the time go??? And, now today, I’m wishing my life away again — wanting September to get here quickly! GEEZE, I’m a mess! LOL
August 30th, 2006 at 9:39 pm
zoesmama, I know exactly what you are saying. I sure hope the best and quick healing for your daughter. The important word Family, I always remember it as:
F - Father
A- And
M-Mother
I - I
L- Love
Y-You
August 30th, 2006 at 10:13 pm
Does anyone know 1) What’s been the average number of days referred say in the past 6 - 8 months?
What’s your guestimate of the number of referrals per batch for the past - say 6 - 8 months?
August 30th, 2006 at 10:15 pm
I’m LID 9/9/05 and theres no hope for me it seems for anything sooner than the end November - that’s a 14 -15 month wait. I’m praying that TA’s will be fast. I’m weary.
August 30th, 2006 at 10:30 pm
With DTC 7-23-06 and no LID still, I choose to focus on the repeated assertions of the CCAA to attempt to keep the timeframe around 12 months. Of course, with a son in Iraq, denial is a good friend. Occupying my mind with worst case scenarios turns me into a bowl of warm Jello with a tendency for random emotional ourtbursts. We must be strong. And courageous. These are not life or death inconveniences that we face, unlike our soldeirs in uniform in various parts of the MIddle East. I try to remember that and to appreciate the blessings of each individual day. What else can we do?
I do appreciate the information that RQ provides and the community of caring and support. Thank you. My son is in Iraq for each of you. And has no regrets.
August 30th, 2006 at 10:51 pm
Katri,
If I’m not mistaken (and anyone feel free to jump in and correct me if I’m wrong) the average amount of referral days for the past 6 months was 9.6 days. The average for the past 7 months was 10 days, 8 months was 12.4 days, and 9 months was 12.5 days. I hope this is correct and that I could help!
August 30th, 2006 at 11:13 pm
wyofamily~ once again I read a post that seems to put me back in place. Yes, we are waiting and it is so hard and out of our control. But you are doing the “wait” and with your son in Iraq you must face a whole new bunch of emotions. Please thank him for us, we will wait and I pray that he is safe. He is a Hero!
August 30th, 2006 at 11:36 pm
wyo- when my husband wakes up tomorrow I’m going to show him your post. He’s so proud of our boys (and girls) in Iraq and the sacrifice for them & their families. Please know that we appreciate what he’s doing and your acceptance of his decision to do so.
August 30th, 2006 at 11:44 pm
Thank you wearewaiting. Your words mean a lot. So often I feel that no one (or so few) understands what we families of soldiers are going through. Just the other day, I took the newspaper out of the box and saw a headline of a neighbor boy who had been kiiled in Bagdad–and fell to the ground like a knife to the heart. I did not know him or his family but it did not matter. It could have been us–and our family. Today was the photo was of his grief stricken mother.
When my son signed up, he said he did it because he believed it was the responsibility of every American to defend the life we have–the freedoms especially–that we could no longer wait for others to do it for us–for the neighbors–or people we did not know. He felt that way. And still does. Just two weeks ago his Humvee ran over an IED, missing them by 10 feet.
When I saw World Trade Tower last week I was heartened to discover the Marine was the true hero of the film. The people who risk thier lives for us are indeed the heroes–and do it not for the glory–but for the principles and beliefs that make this country great. We don’t even know their names.
Waiting is hard. Waiting for him to call–which he can do so infrequently. Waiting for him to come home–we know not when. Frustration is another theme–that none of what the solderis tell us they are doing (what is going well and their progress) makes it to a nightly news show. Amd uncertainly–deep in the gut–that things are happening we don’t know about. And pride–for all of those brave young men and women–not just my son–who so desperately want to know that we support them.
This is not a blog about our efforts in Iraq. I know that. But we are all human and share in the human condition. In the scope of things, those of us here are waiting for an outcome of joy in the rollercoaster of interlantional adoption. We are some of the lucky ones.
Not to diminish what we go through as we attempt to find our lost daughters. But to point to varied expereinces we confront as human beings–and their feared or expected outcomes.
One day at a time. Together.
August 30th, 2006 at 11:57 pm
Thank you, Gretchen. Nothing means more to our soldiers than our support. Nothing.
I believe we all have courage within us. And have an opportunity to develop it in the topsy turvy journey of life.
May a power greater than ourselves provide us peace.
August 31st, 2006 at 12:34 am
wyofamily- I’m with you. We’re not supposed to mention politics or religion on this site but I/we support what your son has sacrificed.
August 31st, 2006 at 12:51 am
Wyofamily…..thank your son for me. It humbles me to think of ones like him that unselfishly provide for us all. May he come home safely. May you soon welcome your new little one into your family as well.
August 31st, 2006 at 7:24 am
Wow, what a way to put me in a most difficult place.
I have 27 emails this morning complaining about the talk of war in Iraq and how this is not the place for it.
And yet if I say something to the mother of a soldier who is worried about her son’s life then I’m going to come off as a huge bitch.
Honestly, I’m still trying to figure out how a post of a spreadsheet turned into a discussion of the War in Iraq.