First rumors on next referral batch
From a very, very, very reputable agency who generally states fact and not speculation (but it seems early for anything but speculation): The next referral batch is not expected to go beyond 7/28.
From another agency that has always given us accurate information in the past but who doesn’t often give out information: There is a chance that the next batch could include the 8/15 to 8/18 timeframe. Not that they will, just that they may.
Neither of these agencies are in the U.S. That is all I will say about either of them at this time.
The thing is, if I had just recieved one of these pieces of information I’d have believed it. Both agencies are super reliable. I have no idea which is right.
The CCAA is now over a week past the mailing of the last batch., but it is still very very early for this kind of thing.
August 31st, 2006 at 8:52 am
Interesting, after the posts of the last few days I wasn’t expecting much info this month, and to already be at the conflicting info stage this early… Anyway, based on RQ’s last poll, anywhere from 7/28 to about 8/7 would be about the same # of LIDs as the last referral batch, disppointing but not shocking. Mid August would be a nice suprise, but I won’t hold my breath.
August 31st, 2006 at 8:56 am
What is the normal correlation b/t where they are in the review room and referrals? They are asking questions about Jan ‘06 LID families and matching July ‘05 LIDs. Is this the “normal” lag?
August 31st, 2006 at 9:03 am
There really isn’t a “normal”, I don’t think. The review room goes at whatever speed they can and the matching room goes at whatever speed they can. They are two completely different departments.
You can see the history of what the CCAA has had on their web site here:
http://chinaadopttalk.com/ccaa-update-and-referral-histories/
August 31st, 2006 at 9:03 am
Early for rumors, although I could be wrong *again* but I thought the dossier numbers were very very low for most of the end of July and early August. With that said, I would be hoping the CCAA would get into the first of August at the very worst case. Donchaknow, yes?
August 31st, 2006 at 9:04 am
The end of July is pretty big, but the first part of August has barely anyone logged in at all.
http://www.chinaadopttalk.com/ChinaAdoptTalkPollresults.html
August 31st, 2006 at 9:09 am
Thanks, RQ. :-)
August 31st, 2006 at 9:16 am
I am a bit surprised any info is leaking out right now. My hope is that they’ll surprise with a mid-month referral batch and do another at the end of September (yes, I know this is very wishful thinking, but one can hope :-). Because of the singles quota and potential new regulations, I cannot even begin a paperchase so while I wait for official word on the new regs from the CCAA, I’ve decided I can best spend my time throwing positive energy towards all of you logged in. Here’s hoping for some wonderful surprises over the next few months.
August 31st, 2006 at 9:17 am
Hi RQ,
I’m a dunderhead and can’t figure out your last chart (and can’t comment there ;) ). When you say LID of Oct 15, and I see the blue cells, they don’t include Oct 15. How am I reading this wrong?
Um, yeah, I know I already got my referral but I’m still addicted to your site–need to keep tabs on how it’s going for #2!
August 31st, 2006 at 9:19 am
RQ-
i’m going to try and email ya…let’s hope the email gnomes are asleep at the moment so you’ll actually get it without the 5 hour delay…lol
August 31st, 2006 at 9:27 am
WOW! I’m not too concerned about exactly what dates the rumor is or isn’t including at the moment - it still really early to get excited or bummed. I am psyched however that there actually is a rumor out there at all!
August 31st, 2006 at 9:34 am
I agree with CTmom…considering the past threads of impending doom and disaster about not hearing a peep until after the referrals were sent…this is a bit of a surprise. Especially from two hightly respected (usually right?) agencies.
August 31st, 2006 at 9:37 am
Referrals came about a week earler this time. Therefore cutoff rumors will also be a week earlier, I guess. Last month the first rumor of cutoff came on Aug. 6. predicting cutoff to be July 28. Well, we all know how that one ended. At least with these two, one is really optimistic - the other one not. So there will be plenty of possibilities of playing the guessing game in the coming weeks ;-)
August 31st, 2006 at 9:38 am
Ahhhh. A rumor or 2. Well, looking at the polls, if they can match through the 28th, they should be able to go ahead and push through to the 8th as there are very few people logged in from 7/29 to 8/9. But, I am seriously doubting that they will match into August as the last batch did not include the weekend dates of 7/23 and 7/24. I don’t know why they didn’t include those dates, unless they knew that this next batch may be only through the 28th and matching 7/23 to 7/28 looks better than 7/25 to 7/28. Just speculation but I am leaning towards believe the 7/28 cut off date right now. I have lost all optimism.
August 31st, 2006 at 9:39 am
Much as I would LOVE to believe the second rumor, I think I’m going to have to file it with the “all of August in August” referral. Just seems too good to be true at this point. But July 28th seems just too horrible to be true, too– all too close to that horrible month of 5 days’ worth.
August 31st, 2006 at 9:40 am
This could mean the leaky faucet IS back from vacation.
August 31st, 2006 at 9:42 am
7/23 and 7/24 of 2005 were Saturday and Sunday.
August 31st, 2006 at 9:43 am
Yes, 7/23 and 7/24 were weekend dates in 2005. That is why RQ’s worst case scenario was 7/24 for the last referral batch.
August 31st, 2006 at 9:51 am
gotta agree about leaky faucet perhaps being back. just 3 days ago we were all up in arms when we heard no one will be leaking any information anymore and now suddenly we’re hearing something from reputable agencies — of course this is good news so i’m not complaining.
yes, 7/23 and 24 were the w/e last year — also seems to support the paper ready babies line of thinking. what would doing 2 more days take, esp since numbers must be so low?
August 31st, 2006 at 9:53 am
Hi everyone, we are new here and have a DTC of August 18.
I can’t believe that this low and slow rate of referrals can continue. Our DTC date was August 18 and LID should be early September. At this rate, a referral would take about 5 years. No exaggeration, it would be 5 years. I can’t imaging that 5 years is the target for the CCAA so there will need to be a jump.
Also, I don’t believe that they have run out of babies, however, we did receive word from our agency that expedited (Chinese heritage) applications would be quite longer. The time for those referrals would now be only one or two months quicker.
Anyone else hear this? Not that this would impact many people, but this is a departure from past practice.
August 31st, 2006 at 9:54 am
maybe the CCAA hadn’t gotten out the duct tape yet for the ‘leaky faucet’. lol
but like you guys are saying…i’m not complaining. :)
August 31st, 2006 at 9:54 am
If they are going to do the same number referrals next batch as last, according to RQ polls, they should get to 8-7. If they get to 8-7 they’re still short from what they did last batch, accordind to RQ polls. Then the batch after they could get to 8-22 and be a little short, according to RQ polls.
August 31st, 2006 at 9:59 am
I’m behind, are we talking about ‘Tater’ ?
August 31st, 2006 at 10:04 am
An early batch of referrals would be such a boost to our sagging spirits. Maybe the rumor about switching from the end of the month to the beginning of the month will start with September. Would that maybe explain that odd last batch?
Just an idea.
M
August 31st, 2006 at 10:06 am
Not much “on-topic” from me here. I just wanted to introduce myself as the latest R.Q.-Noob :). I, like many here, have become increasingly frustrated over the past few months with little word and no perceivable progress. We get a newsletter from our agency each month and I watched in horror as the time lines kept increasing and increasing. At first I was quite angry as the expectations that were communicated to us when we stated the process was the normal 7-9 months from DTC to Referral (this was pre-LID reference of course). I recently whipped up an excel sheet based on the numbers from our agency and estimated our potential referral to be very late in 2007. Faced with little hope and mounting frustration I started scouring the internet earlier this week for any information that would either soothe my pain or confirm my fears. This led me to the adoption forecast site which confirmed that my predictions were spot on. That site then led me to R.Q. My verdict is still out on whether or not this is a good thing. Instead of having very little information I now have speculative information! However, I can’t relate to everyone enough how comforting it is hear your stories and read your words and to know that we are not alone in this adventure. So regardless of whether this site turns me into an emotional wreck, I’m hooked.
DadInTheWings LID: 2/15/2005
August 31st, 2006 at 10:07 am
er…. LID: 2/15/2006 - sry :)
August 31st, 2006 at 10:13 am
DadInTheWings, Welcome. Hang in there, it will happen.
August 31st, 2006 at 10:13 am
welcome DadInTheWings…(i’m a dude as well bytheway)
We’re LID 8.10.05…on the doorstep so to speak.
welcome to the rollercoaster ride.
figured rollercoaster ride was better than:
‘welcome to my (our) nightmare’…
or
‘welcome back my friends to the show that never ends…’.
August 31st, 2006 at 10:15 am
metoo, just a cautionary word that unless i misread something i don’t think anything’s been mentioned about an early batch of referrals. rather, i think at this point it’s just that rumors are starting earlier. remains to be seen if that then means referrals come early. i haven’t seen any indication suggesting this yet though. but with a 7/26 lid i like the idea of it.
August 31st, 2006 at 10:19 am
If they just do up to 7/28 this time, that’s it for me. I just don’t think I can handle this ride anymore. By RQ’s chart yesterday and with a LID of 12/20/05, we won’t get our referral until late next summer - another year - I just can’t do this. Debating on if it is time to go back to the fertility doc again !!!!
I have lost all optimism/faith in this process.
Lets all hope for positive news!!
August 31st, 2006 at 10:29 am
Hello Archer.
I was referring to talk of changing when the referrals come out from the end of the month to the beginning of the month. Only no one seemed to know when, if ever, that may occur. If this rumor did come true, referrals would be out “earlier” than they usually are. Of course, there is a distinct possibility that I am dillusional from stress and made up the whole rumor. RQ…help.
M
August 31st, 2006 at 10:31 am
Ugh…the rollercoaster is getting to me. Gotta break out the dramamine. Or maybe I should break out the blender for the famous RQ margaritas. :}
August 31st, 2006 at 10:33 am
Off topic for me too, I’m a newbie.
After struggling with secondary infertility for 4 years, and a long road and convincing my husband (who took early retirement) that we were meant to find our daughter in China, I feel prety hopeless when I do the math.
My documents are at the consulate right now - best case scenario I’ll be LID in October of 2006. Crunching the numbers puts us at a referral in 2012 - which is a laugh - my husband would be so far past the age requirements they would toss our dossier in the shredder.
When I started this process I was so excited that the miscarriages were behind me - so sick of the roller coaster of hope, followed by crushing disappointment.
But reading this I feel like now I don’t even have the hope. Sorry to be such a downer. I just don’t even know what I was thinking, this whole adoption thing seems so futile now.
August 31st, 2006 at 10:35 am
Meetoo: The talk of referrals changing to the beginning of the month came about when the July referral batch was so late. Earlier in August, we were told to expect referrals very late Aug./early Sept. It was a surprise that referrals came out last week. It would be a surprise if Sept. referrals came out before the 20th of Sept. (Referrals seem to come out every 28 to 35 days.)
August 31st, 2006 at 10:47 am
THis is a off the walll post, but has anyone thought about having a back up plan B in case the rumors are true about the new regulations and some of us get totally kicked out of the program.
My husband and I love this child already and the more further and vague it gets if we will ever get her, just really makes us wonder if we made the right decision doing this and if it will ever happen. Our homestudy/prints will need to be renewed soon and I cannot phathom paying all the fees again and going through the frustration with paperwork - (I would do this 10 more times if I knew I was getting my daughter) - emotionally this is where I am with China right now.
We were even discussing applying for domestic adoption, since all other countries seem to have the same slow down currently. Does anyone else feel this way? I just need some peace of mind that if something does happen and we don’t get our daughter from China, I just need to know I have a back up plan ready to still pursue being a family. I don’t want to sound conflicting, because we still want our daughter, but emotionally, I just need to know that I have another option if this just totally collapses.
Just wanted to know if anyone else felt the same way or what peoples plans were.
August 31st, 2006 at 10:48 am
wait4hannah and wheresmygirl, hang in there. Things seem really depressing right now–albeit I have to say I was relieved to even just see rumors happening after the past couple of days–but the wait times have escalated in the past and then gone down again. I think a few years ago the wait went up to 15 months, then dramatically down, and now we’re on the incline again. But I have to believe things will even out again to some kind of reasonable timeframe. There have been plenty of rumors about new “rules” from the CCAA coming sometime soon. Those sure bring their own set of worries, but I’m betting China will do something to address the neverending wait–no way are they going to permit a 6-year wait, I’m betting they won’t even let it get to two years. I understand how stressful and demoralizing this process can be, but try to hang onto your hope. Wish I could say something that would help… well, I guess “try chocolate, it can’t hurt” would be my best advice at the moment.
August 31st, 2006 at 10:49 am
wheresmygirl-
welcome and please don’t give up hope. One thing that alot of us learned is that these ‘long term’ numbers and speculations really can’t be followed. Once you get past a certain time frame, there are too many variables that affect the numbers. So much can happen over the course of not only the next few months, but next year. May not be much consolation, but I don’t know if there’s alot of us that truly believe the wait will go out even remotely THAT far. :)
Hang in there all you ‘newbies’. :)
August 31st, 2006 at 10:54 am
I can say that for us if something happens and we get “kicked out” that will be the end. We really wanted to try to have our daughter close in age to our current youngest and now she is already 6. If we travel after February she will be 7. So there is no plan B for us. If we do get knocked out it will be like a death in the family. We have already integrated her into our lives even though we don’t have her yet. We talk about her, we have had things made specifically for her, I have a Christmas tree ornament for her with her name on it, our parents talk about their grandchild coming from China, so many things in our life that she has already left her mark on - even though she may not even be born yet. I don’t know that I could pursue another adoption for a while anyway if I wanted too until my grieving process was over. Scary stuff.
August 31st, 2006 at 11:00 am
wheresmygirl
It does seem futile doesn’t it? I feel the same way. And we chose to adopt from China for the same reasons — the program was consistent. And expected time frame, etc.
It’s hard that it’s all changed. Rumor Queen is telling us the reality of international adoption. I also read that years ago, it could take 16+months to get a referral from China, and they weren’t even sure of LIDs.
I think we need to grieve what we expected from adopting from China. I also struggled with secondary infertility. I am trying to let myself be sad about the wait. But I am sticking with the program, because I believe my child is in China. So that’s where I am going. If it’s 2010 — well, then it will be that way. But I will still meet my baby then.
I just have to let go of the sadness and get on with life for the next 18 months to who knows how long.
Take care and I am with you.
PS. Really glad we got a rumor, weird so early!
August 31st, 2006 at 11:05 am
wait4hanna…
I feel the same way. With a 3/24/06 LID and if I go by the chart (I know it’s just a projection or speculation), CCAA continues to send only 9 days worth of batches, then it’s possible for me not see a referral late 2007/early 2008, possibly later. I CANNOT even wrap my mind around that. I have to believe that 9 days of referrals continuing, is the worst case scenerio. Not having any children, it makes the waiting even more lonely. I have my dh, but I find it hard to share this information with him, he is so ready to be a parent to our a little girl we havent met, but already love.
The only thing I can say, is to not give up on your dream.
Jen
LID 3/24/06
August 31st, 2006 at 11:18 am
glassmaker -
I so know where you are coming from. It will be like grieving over an actual death. We too have prepared special things for her - and her grandparents already love her soo much. LIke you said, it would be a grieving process - one that I hope none of us have to face.
Thanks all for responding - I just really felt like I needed to chat with other today about the way I was feeling :)
August 31st, 2006 at 11:44 am
Dear wait4hannah Says:
Over in the private area of the forum there’s threads about venting. That’s where I first posted. There’s support there.
ANd I believe adoption will happen. So I try to think of it as grieving expectations.
I hope I am not being naive!
August 31st, 2006 at 11:48 am
Isn’t if “funny” that we can’t even name these agencies by their code names anymore! Gone are the Taters and Tartars - but I don’t care as long as a few drips drop our way every now and again. I’m thankful for the upbeat news today - just lets me know that they are working, even if it feels like ancient water torture.
9/9
August 31st, 2006 at 12:00 pm
How about the artist formerly known as tater?
August 31st, 2006 at 12:02 pm
wait4hanna . . .JennyPA . . .wheresmygirl . . .hann23 . . .
I completely relate to already feeling like my life is affected by our daughter– I just want her with me. I plan to pick-up where I left off at the start of summer to finish decorating the nursery. I will begin working on my 100-wish quilt and a wish scrapbook after Columbus Day.
On one hand, doing this stuff makes me feel really positive—my daughter is coming and I am getting ready for her. On the other hand, it makes me very sad because it seems like it is going to be a really long time before we have her with us.
Is it just me, or does anyone else feel like you mover further away from your referral each month instead of moving closer to it? That is how I have felt the last few months when the referrals come. Instead of getting closer to my referral – I move further away.
I’m really in a funk!
LID 12/20/05
August 31st, 2006 at 12:04 pm
Hi… another newbie here.
After 8 years of ups and downs, a domestic adoption falling through, a failed foster-adopt situation, and tons of $$ down the tube in fertility treatment/procedures, this is really putting my wife and I through the ringer.
So, I commisserate with y’all… but feel there is nothing left to do but hold on an trust that eventually they’ll get to us.
A fine line between faith/trust and apathy, no?
HoldingOut
August 31st, 2006 at 12:08 pm
wait4hannah: I am starting to have these thoughts too. But I am very, very wary of domestic adoption because of our country’s rather muddled laws in this area. I have met way too many people who thought they were getting a baby and then the mother changed her mind at the last minute or another family member intervened. And then even when you do get your child, it can take months for an actual adoption to be finalized so you always have that uncertainty hanging over you … I personally know a couple who adopted domestically and it took a whole year until the baby was legally theirs. So be careful! One thing that’s great about the China program is the baby is yours as soon as you leave China.
Anyway, you’re not alone in these thoughts, that’s for sure!
August 31st, 2006 at 12:16 pm
glassmaker & wait4hannah,
Right there with you! I thought I was being over dramatic. It is refreshing to know I’m not alone.
While we have decided that we will transfer to Vietnam, there would be a whole grieving process and all Aislinn’s special things would be packed away. A new name and everything for our “second” child.
My sister is having her second child in December and they live about an hour from my parents. We live 12 hours away. My dad is more excited about Aislinn than my sister’s baby. I can’t decide if it funny or sad.
LID 5/10/06
August 31st, 2006 at 12:17 pm
I could not leave a comment on the numbers page.
Has anyone done projections on potential referral dates based on the poll results for number of LIDs? I don’t have the data handy myself about the average number of referrals per month for the past 6 to 12 months. I am curious to see how that plays out given the small number of reported LID’s for early August.
Thanks,
Marie
LID 8/23
August 31st, 2006 at 12:18 pm
Welcome, newbies and HI to the oldies (but goodies). I, for one like that we have a rumor so early. To me, that is a positive.
Katri, I like the drip drops….so-to-speak.
Wyofamily, our thoughts are with you. We ALL have to hang in there. Good things are on their way!!!!
August 31st, 2006 at 12:25 pm
Hi everyone…and to the new dads to be especially. A few more and maybe those of us guys with gender neutral names will stop getting mistaked for women (right tg?).
On ths subject of alternate plans, I can offer a bit of info from our recent experience. We ended up adopting privately while we were waiting for China. We weren’t actively looking for a match (it sort of found us), but we did not defer China until we were very confident it would go through and if we hadn’t been so close to getting our referral we theoretically could have waited until the adoption was finalized.
Where we are finalization takes only a month or so and the laws are very clear that final is final. If there had been a lot of uncertainty we would have just stuck with China.
I know this approach wouldn’t be practical or even desirable for many, and our situation was very unique, but it might be a possibility for some anyway.
August 31st, 2006 at 12:35 pm
Welcome dadinthewings, you and I have the same LID date. If you haven’t already, you might want to join the Feb. LID group, located in the forum section.
And, Calmaity, I know about being in that funk, another girlfriend of mine just found out she’s pregnant. I’m happy for her, but somehow, I see all my girlfriends who are getting pregnant, three of them have twins, and two of them were of 45 years old. And, I’m thinking, somehow I’m a failure.
Oh well, I’m sure my mood will pass, but I just hope the referrals speed up. In the meantime, thank you so much RQ for creating this informational, and special site for those of us who are on this remarkable journey.
I love the rumors, facts, the jokes regarding liquids, solids, etc., from a lot of you who are new and btdt parents. I hope that once many of you who have completed your adoption you will continue to keep us posted. It will give us hope and inspiration in knowing there will be a wonderful end, and beginning to our stories. Please, RQ, The Naked Ovary, TG, sparky, glassmaker, mom2isabelle, m3, Maria, and Nina, my LID buddy, thank you all!
August 31st, 2006 at 12:41 pm
Canuckdude — Thanks for TAFKAT. THAT’s funny.
To everyone else who is in despair: At times, I share your feelings of increasing hopelessness (will they get to us before we’re 60? will they change the rules to exclude us? Are we gonna have to have a big garage sale for all the baby clothes, the high chair, carseat, and crib we’ve accumulated???)
I truly do believe things will pick up speed, but China is going through some transitions right now, some of which we are aware of (moving their offices), others we can only guess at.
China signed on to the Hague Convention in September, a critical provision of which is that the member countries recognize that domestic adoption is in the best interests of a country’s children. I have been told that in the last 2 years
one sees a lot of billboards and ads in major Chinese cities promoting domestic adoption, and that it is true that the slowdown in international adoption is because of the success of this program. I’ve heard that China completed 40,000 or 50,000 domestic adoptions last year.
Yet, on the other hand, we all read accounts and estimates/guesstimates/extrapolations that there are still 100,000 children per year being abandoned mostly in rural provinces, because of the population control policy. That also seems to ring true.
So there are still many children needing homes, but I suspect that CCAA is busy not only reviewing and matching international applicants, but also domestic applicants, and domestic applicants have priority (as they should). And I also suspect that CCAA may have policies regarding which children are placed domestically and which are placed internationally, and that would add another layer of redtape and delay to the process. THAT would explain why CCAA reports having fewer “paper ready” children.
I truly believe that eventually, like bureaucracies in our own countries, they will work out the bugs and things will speed up, and hopefully the end result will be to find more homes for more children.
Any thoughts on this issue, RQ?
August 31st, 2006 at 1:05 pm
A rumor already, and when we thought we’d all be living in the rumor desert after yesterday! RQ I am really hoping that your #2 rumor turns out to be the right one! TG, do you have any fingernails left that you haven’t chewed off, cuz I don’t. I feel a little like the dogs that keep chasing the rabbit around the track, running and really going nowhere… LID 8-9-05
August 31st, 2006 at 1:07 pm
Canuckdude, thanks for “the artist formerly known as Tater,” I needed that bit of humor this p.m. :o)
August 31st, 2006 at 1:13 pm
So when do you all think the next batch of referrals will be sent?
August 31st, 2006 at 1:13 pm
CarolCarter-
well said. there were several things i’m right there with you on.
I think we (in general as an IA community) tend to forget that the country of our soon to be children is going through some majour growth…and along with that serious growing pains. It seems that almost at any given time on TV you can find a doc on China. The Discovery Channel and it’s 50 thousand varieties typically is where to look. There are also many books out there covering the ‘rise’ of China. What’s going on there is changing the way of the world. There is dramatic growth but yet a very large gap between the ‘cities’ and the rural areas…the people who ‘have’ or have discovered how to have more and the people who still spend hours everyday just trying to grow enough food for their family. It’s an amazing thing.
As you mentioned, there are big changes and the implementation and adjustments to these changes will take time. We see how things are affected with our situations, but we must know we’re linked and bound by what goes on there. Someone posted earlier in the week about our journeys and our waiting in this process but it pales to the journey our child will have/has had. Superimpose that on the Chinese as a people…wow. :)
I think as long as there are places like this and people like you all, most of us will get through this wait…and whatever is to come with at least some sanity left and an understanding that most other people “just won’t get”. :)
August 31st, 2006 at 1:15 pm
If, for whatever reason, we get “kicked out” of the China program, that’s it for us and we will have to live child free. We’ve spent so much money on fertility treatments and this adoption process, and in debt now, that we really cannot go somewhere else.
It is such a shame because we have so much love to give a child, and after losing two pregnancies (babies!) our hearts just can’t handle any more losses, including a domestic adoption falling through. I just have to believe it will happen one day. So no Plan B for us.
lid 7/11/06
August 31st, 2006 at 1:20 pm
zoesmama-
the thought is that referrals should go out around the same time as last….i.e. 9/22. and believe me i just keep glancing at the calendar…lol
smalltowngirl-
yup…that pain in my arse is the picket of the fence we’re on. ouch! my DW has had some of the ‘finish line’ dreams already…she said mostly it’s the dream of trying to reach something but it keeps being just out of reach. I’m sure we’re going to be nervous wrecks in about 3 weeks. lol
August 31st, 2006 at 1:32 pm
ChildlessinKC: Thanks for the clarification. I was afraid the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy were leading me on.
Just a thought…. our second choice was Ethiopia. Granted, it was two years ago, but the wait time was @ 3-4 months and no travel was required, they would bring the child to you. Some folks were considering a “plan B”. Might be worth looking into. Or you could just drop Angelina a line. :)
M
August 31st, 2006 at 2:16 pm
windthrow: congratulations on your adoption! Of course, laws are different in every state, and every situation is different. And my friend I mentioned in my earlier post adopted through a county agency, so that’s very different from a private adoption.
meetoo: thanks for the tip on Ethiopia. I’ll have to plant a bug in my hubby’s ear about that idea (as a Plan B) tonight! Of course, it would be best if both our children could share a common heritage (we already have one daughter from China). But if that’s not possible, maybe having a sibling adopted from a different country would be the next best thing.
August 31st, 2006 at 2:44 pm
My goodness, LID1105, you’re probably in the Review Room already, and I can’t believe that switching programs (possibly redoing your entire dossier) would speed things up if your LID is 11/05! You’re 10 months in, hang in there!
August 31st, 2006 at 2:51 pm
waiting4Ash….I didn’t understand, have you switched to Vietnam, or are you thinking about switching?
LID 3/10/06
August 31st, 2006 at 2:54 pm
I didn’t see this question in the FAQ. When RQ is referring to numbers of dossiers logged in, she is talking about those that are *known*, correct? As in people who have responded to the site polls?
Is there any way of knowing how many people are actually logged in, other than calling every agency on the planet and attempting to pry that information out of their China program directors?
I ask because when we have been in China, I couldn’t believe how many adoptive families we met who had never heard of APC or even their child’s Yahoo orphanage group.
Just wondering if there is a way to guestimate how many “missing” LIDs there are when reading RQ’s charts. I don’t think I can use my own agency’s referrals, because they send dossiers weekly to China, and those numbers wouldn’t compare to an agency that sends them every day or an agency that sends them once a month.
August 31st, 2006 at 3:00 pm
We know that there were around 2000 people logged in during October, and that this was considered HUGE by the CCAA.
Looking at what we have for October, it appears we have about 15% of the total number. I’m told this is more than enough for a statistically correct data set (or rather, a statistically close-enough data set).
The CCAA is the only one with the actual numbers in detail, and I’m pretty sure they don’t intend to share them.
August 31st, 2006 at 3:05 pm
CarolCarter: I’m hanging in there for now, but we were talking about a “Plan B” in case we would get kicked out of the China program due to the rumored new regulations coming in the near future. No one knows for sure if people already logged in and/or reviewed will be safe or if the new regs will apply immediately. And, of course, no one knows for sure what the new regs actually ARE! Such fun, fun times …
August 31st, 2006 at 3:21 pm
when we started our adoptionprocess (that was 1856 I believe :)) It was all an abstract thing. We had not decided on a country, just that we wanted to adopt. And because of the long IA-route in our tiny country we started up the whole thing, well before we really wanted children. I 25, going on 26, dh is one year older. We had time and we needed the time. To save money for one, but also to grow into the idea of a family. Once we decided on the country, the abstract idea became more real each day. I knew little of China, just the usual stuff, but got more and more interested. Not only on the one-child-policy, but on the country in general. When dh and I finally got married this year our invitations were decorated with the symbol of DoubleHappiness. We received many Chinese gifts and gifts wrapped in Chinese paper. We have Buddha sitting in our livingroom (DH ownes this statue for years and years, even before we ever thought about children), Pucca-dolls on our keyrings, chopsticks in our kitchen-drawer. There is no other option. This China-child is in our hearts for 3 years now. It is stuck in my thoughts, my heart, my soul. Every single day. I will not switch, no matter how long the wait.
August 31st, 2006 at 3:24 pm
In the summer of 2001, when the rumors of quotas started, I did a chart much like the one here to try to determine when I would get my referral if I squeezed in before December 1st (being single, I was afraid of the “no more singles†rumor going around then, too). At the rate they were referring then, if I had been DTC in Nov 2001, I should have received a referral in slightly over 3 years – so Nov/Dec of 2004. I believe most of those families actually got their referrals in more like 13-14 months. I ended up waiting for a single spot and was DTC in March of 2003 then received my referral in November 2003 – eight short months later (still a year ahead of my prediction!). When I started paperchasing, the wait was 12-13 months. So, for those of you early in the process, don’t give up hope! Crazy things happen, and you can’t predict how things will end up. It’s a leap of faith. One I’m crazy enough to take twice!
August 31st, 2006 at 3:29 pm
Thank you, RQ.
So if 2000 is considered HUGE, I wonder what is “average” or if there’s such a thing. Our last DTC group had around 300 (that was 9/02) and someone on that group somehow estimated there were another 300 families out there. 2000 compared to 600 is indeed a huge difference.
I guess one way of determining this would be to check out memberships on all the DTC groups, which would be easy since their homepages can be viewed without joining…
something is telling me that someone here has already done that and the numbers are probably somewhere on this site…
August 31st, 2006 at 3:37 pm
LID1105–
Sorry. I guess I’ve already “decided” that there’s no way CCAA wouldn’t grandfather in those of us who are already LID.
We too would be “eliminated” if they did change some of the policies and applied them retroactively.
CC (LID 1/6/06)
August 31st, 2006 at 4:38 pm
HI all, and thanks to so many of your witty comments that I jsut scanned through. I keep trying to talk myself into why later is better:
My LID is 8/22,so likely October or Nov referral. If it’s October, I’ll be paying 1.5 time the regular airfares, and likely more for hotels. Being on a shoestring budget, a November referral would probably work better for us…. (OK, Murphy’s LAW KICK IN!!!!!!)
August 31st, 2006 at 4:49 pm
Sorry, meant *just* I have one finger faster than the other :=)
August 31st, 2006 at 5:32 pm
Ok, maybe since I am just starting our second paperchase and have not been in this wait like some of you I am just deliriously happy about the prospect of another baby in our house, but I have a speculation. (ONLY a speculation mind you…) Could it be possible that they finished Aug with the end of the month referrals, and will start Sept as the first of the month referrals? That might justify the tiny batch this time. And it might also explain the early rumors as well… Perhaps this is to put them on a regular schedule where things will begin to level off and things will stay at the 13/14 month range as was reported by one agency and noted on this site.
It’s just a thought, but it’s a happy one for me. Maybe there’s nothing to it, but if not, in the words of Scarlett O’Hara, I’ll worry about that tomorrow.
As CarolCarter posted earlier, China is in huge transition phase (and not only in adoption). I agree that the process will take some time to iron out, but do expect to see some things get better. With the new emphasis on domestic adoption there, it is entirely possible that the paperwork for those babies/children available for IA is taking longer, but as with anything else, efficiency will increase with experience. And that (I hope) may precipitate an acceleration.
Even if it does not, and the wait stays long and gets longer, I will wait if I am not eliminated by restrictions. If we are eliminated, we don’t have a backup plan. I am not sure what we would do. Somedays I think I am crazy for signing up to do this again right now. Oh, well, send out the men with the little white jackets… I am about to write the check!!!
I don’t mean to give false hope, and don’t take any from me please, but this is just my thinking. Wishful? Absolutely. But plausible.
August 31st, 2006 at 5:45 pm
postfarm…..the DTC groups aren’t an accurate way to know numbers because many people are members of multiple groups. I myself am on 3 different boards and as the wait increases, so does each membership. More people log on toward the end of their wait it think.
lid 9/9
August 31st, 2006 at 6:23 pm
Katri, just out of curiosity, what is the current membership on each of your boards?