Speculation and Analysis on the rumors
Our root vegetable is speculating that the next cut off will be 7/28. They are making this clear that it is speculation and not something they know as a fact.
July 23rd and 24th were a weekend with few people logged in. This is why my bad case scenario was 7/24 and not 7/22, because they have so few people past 7/22 that I felt (silly me) that if they made it to 7/22 they could surely make it to 7/24.
If they are going to make it to 7/28 then they will really only be doing four full days of LID’s. A similar number of matches as last month, but only four business days.
Also, if you will remember from my recent Analysis post, my bad case scenario for this month is 7/28 and my good case scenario is 8/16. I’d like to think that if they can make it to 7/28 then they can make it farther since there are so few people logged in after 7/28, but I won’t make that assumption twice in a row.
The good case scenario of 8/16 is based on the huge amount of matches they made in June. They’ve done it in the recent past, I’d like to think they can do it again. But I’m not hanging my hopes on it.
There are some U.S. agencies telling early August people that they may be in this next batch. Not that they will, just that the agency thinks there is a chance. And of course, we have the other agency mentioned in the previous post apparently thinking they will come close to my good case scenario.
At least one U.S. agency has told a late August person to expect their referral in November. We know that 8/24 is a very very large day, so if they only do through 7/28 this month then that may turn out to be accurate. I hope that they can get through August in two months instead of the three and four it seem to be taking for other months. It’s really too early to start trying to predict the end of August though, even though they are only four LID weeks away from the most recent cut off.
August 31st, 2006 at 1:50 pm
Last Thanksgiving I sat with my family and said how great that next Thanksgiving Cate will be here with us, now it may not be till NEXT Thanksgiving, this is unreal. Had I known then what I know now, I would have looked to another country at the beginning!
August 31st, 2006 at 2:01 pm
I know I shouldn’t do this, but I keep thinking…what if we have such early rumors because we are much closer to the next batch than we think? What if they are going to send out another small batch, but very soon? Sorry to do this to everyone, but sometimes the good thoughts help me get by day to day. Maybe it’s just the caffeine I recently consumed, but I’m just feeling good about things today. Boy am I delusional, huh?
August 31st, 2006 at 2:01 pm
meetingcate -
I feel your pain… I said that too last Thanksgiving, Christmas, etc…… However, when I went online the other day and looked at other countries and their wait times I found that many of them are very simililar to ours… it made this wait a little easier but not much.
I’m just devestated that the rumors are for a 6 day referral batch… 6 days…. it just seemed that things were starting to pick up again in June and then suddenly things just came to a crawl again.
I’m just trying to stay busy with work and because it’s too soon to start decorating the nursery, I’ve resorted to redecorating every other room in my house - I’m driving my dh completely nuts!!!
August 31st, 2006 at 2:02 pm
For the life of me….why can’t they just get to the end of a month. Stopping at the 28th its just like they are trying to tease us!
August 31st, 2006 at 2:04 pm
Waiting4Emily -
I was wondering the same thing… Thinking that maybe they are going to put out another small batch next week to put them at their “beginning of the month” schedule and then go from there… and maybe that is why we are hearing rumors about the next batch so soon.
I would probably fall out of my chair if that actually happened but it’s a nice thought.
August 31st, 2006 at 2:07 pm
Late July — 25th thru 28th — looks really heavy. That’s prolly why one source says that’s as far as they’ll get. I just wish they’d get on an approx. 1 month in 1 month schedule, between slowdowns for heavy months. Finish July in September, do all of August in October, September in November, October in December/January/February (October’s reportedly a big month and Chinese NY will likely slow things down), November in March, December in April, January in May, etc.
August 31st, 2006 at 2:34 pm
Beginning of the month? Apparently some of you didn’t understand the original rumor, which said that they may not get the August referrals out at the end of August and that they may come the first week of September instead.
Well, they did come in August, so that rumor is now null and void.
August 31st, 2006 at 2:36 pm
Did anybody notice the “waves” in the numbers? Several high count days then several low count days. Do we know why or any speculation why?
LID 5/10/06
August 31st, 2006 at 2:42 pm
How accurate have the poll numbers been in the past? It looks like if they make it to the 28th that would be 128 referrals…making it possible to do a lot of August in the next batch (assuming they could do about the same amount of referrals) or am I completely reading this wrong?
August 31st, 2006 at 2:47 pm
RQ -
I’m sorry, I didn’t mean to be confusing…
I thought that rumors were going around that referrals would be coming at the beginning of the month from now on and not the end of the month… so I was thinking that because September 1 is tomorrow that maybe we would see a suprise batch sometime early next week which would technically be at the beginnng of the month and then the next batch would come at the beginning of October… just hoping for anything positive to come out of the 6 day referral rumor.
August 31st, 2006 at 2:47 pm
The waves appear to go in 4 and 5 day spurts with 2 days in between. I would guess that this simply corresponds to the business days of the week at that time. The exception is the period from 7/29 - 8/7, perhaps a national holiday or major vacation break that week?
August 31st, 2006 at 2:52 pm
It appears that we have somewhere around 15 to 20 percent of the total numbers represented on the polls. I’m told this is more than enough to get us close to a statistically accurate data set.
August 31st, 2006 at 2:56 pm
That appears to hold true as 7/18, 7/25, 8/1, 8/8 & 8/15 were the Mondays in 2005. I could not find anything concerning a holiday/festival in that very small week however.
August 31st, 2006 at 3:01 pm
If they don’t go through August and September quickly, I will be really, really worried. They are small months compared to July and the upcoming months of October and November. Having a February LID, I’m scared about what will happen with Oct. and Nov.
Waaay back, when we thought the wait was 10-12 months, I actually took a positive attitude about it. I looked at it as time to get things done and, therefore, thought it would fly by. Now that we obviously have soooo much more time, I have lost all motivation to get anything done. Arg! I need a nap!
:)
LID 2/9/06
August 31st, 2006 at 3:06 pm
I am a new reader of this site who is also waiting on a referral. I find some of the articles and analysis interesting. What I find interesting about this “statistical analysis” is that you are basing your conclusions on numbers from a survey of those that chose to tell you their LID. You are saying that July 23rd and 24th had a small number of people who were LID so you can’t understand why CCAA did not go ahead and refer out those families with the last batch. Granted, there were probably no LID’s for Sunday July 24th, 2005 but obviously there were some on Saturday July 23rd, 2005. So how in the world do you actually know the number of people who actually were LID in the system. The speculations made on this analysis are based on a sample of 401 respondents. You are also making value judgements of the CCAA work load based on these numbers. Not a very sound analysis. These articles do seem to bring in a lot of readers which I guess is part of the objective of this site since there are advertisements. I would suggest that the readers take a more critical and thoughtful look at the basis of the speculations as they would the speculations.
August 31st, 2006 at 3:09 pm
lexsc - please read the FAQ, specifically question 12.
August 31st, 2006 at 3:10 pm
I SO do not like that an agency is speculating a 7/28 cut-off. Why/how would they do that? What I mean is, what makes that particular date “the” speculated date?
It makes my stomach hurt to think that that’s as far as the next batch might go. I know it’s just a rumor, but still. Yuck!
LID 8/18/05
August 31st, 2006 at 3:13 pm
lexsc- you might want to go back and read some to get an idea of how things have developed here. RQ’s analysis has been quite good and very helpful to those of us who have been reading this for a while. Welcome to the site. I think that you wil find it helpful if you go back and catch up a little.
August 31st, 2006 at 3:14 pm
uh oh…
August 31st, 2006 at 3:16 pm
lexsc- you might want to go back and do some reading on this site. RQ’s analysis has been quite helpful to those of us who have been here for a while. Welcome to the site. Just catch up with the FAQs and you might find this an informative and caring community.
August 31st, 2006 at 3:18 pm
Okay I know that most here are much closer to their referral than I. I keep doing long term stuff which I know is less reliable but……
If the CCAA continues with 9 day referral months it will take them 40 months to get through a year of referrals. If they do 12 day referral months it will take 30 months to get through a year. I am assuming here that for whatever reason the CCAA is unable to speed up so the number of referral days won’t change drastically.
Can someone tell me if other countires have waits that are two or three years? I didn’t really look farther than China so I don’t know.
August 31st, 2006 at 3:18 pm
Have you ever visited Gallup’s website, CNN or listened to the news? There are polls taken every day of roughly 1000 calls to a random survey group and these are stated to have an accuracy of +/-3% for a much much larger base then we are dealing with here. I’m not saying that RQ polls are 100% accurate, but when you have a sample group of around 20% of your total base, then yes, those numbers (statistically speaking) are a very accurate reflection of the true percentages.
August 31st, 2006 at 3:23 pm
Oops. Sorry for the double post. It did not seem to go through.
August 31st, 2006 at 3:31 pm
glassmaker-
(hehehehehe) Your “uh-oh” made me laugh out loud!
August 31st, 2006 at 3:35 pm
not saying a word… pppbbrrtt!! ;p
August 31st, 2006 at 3:43 pm
Well, I know I just returned my seat back to its upright and locked position. Here we gooooooo……
August 31st, 2006 at 3:43 pm
Word.
August 31st, 2006 at 3:45 pm
Last month there were no rumors at all. It is not the 1st of september yet, and there are a lot of rumors.
Why….?
I hope that the rumor about august is true…..
August 31st, 2006 at 3:49 pm
It looks like they completed the last set of matches on 8/21 or 8/22. We are well over a week since the last set of matches.
It is too early to actually start believing the rumors, but it isn’t too early for them to start showing up.
August 31st, 2006 at 3:58 pm
jj2china,
The Philippines has a 2 + year wait and their TA time can be as much as 6-8 months so yes there is at least one country in that range.
August 31st, 2006 at 4:02 pm
If the CCAA is only giving out lids and nothing else, then where are these rumors coming from. I know the agencies but it was said that they would not be getting information any more. I am confused?
August 31st, 2006 at 4:08 pm
Hi RQ- I’m a long time lurker and a new poster. Did you happen to notice that referrals through July 22, 2005 were done on/about Aug 22, 2006? Wouldn’t it be really nice if they were lining up dates to stick at 13 months? Is 13 a lucky number in China?
I’m on board with the hope that this little 6 day batch is coming early September…
mom to be to grace
LID 12/9/05
August 31st, 2006 at 4:11 pm
Amygum, I’m thinking in a country where guanxi rules maybe it’s really hard to turn off those leaky faucets. Just hope the rumors keep coming and that the “referrals into Aug.” part turns out to be accurate.
August 31st, 2006 at 4:12 pm
by the way… thanks for all of your work on this!
August 31st, 2006 at 4:19 pm
CWS, now that’s a whole interesting discussion in itself
guanxi vs. communist based governmental rules.
discuss…tawk amunst yourselves
now i’m getting alittle verklempt.
RQ: like butta
August 31st, 2006 at 4:22 pm
TG…. OY! ;o)
August 31st, 2006 at 4:27 pm
jj2china :
As previously mentioned Philippines has a long wait. Colombia has a wait for referral of 15-36 mos (depending of multiple factor). Haiti has short referral wait but travel wait is 9- 18 mos (or more). Russia is completely unpredictible (depending on the judge who take care of the case) so is Guatemala. Brazil : up to 2 tears. S.Korea is currently doing very big change in their adoption policy.
China continue to be one of the most reliable country to adopt from.
August 31st, 2006 at 4:29 pm
This is off-topic but I just had to pop in and say that I’m still reeling from the revelation that TG is a dude. I don’t think we’ve ever had a conversation, TG, but I’ve read a lot of your posts. You know how you tend to picture people in your mind when you’re reading a post? My mental picture wasn’t a fella. :) Just goes to show one shouldn’t make assumptions!
August 31st, 2006 at 4:36 pm
I would be very curious to know what the agencies that get info on referrals actually think about the future. If a well known agencies hears that the next batch will be for 6 days, then what do they think about the future? Surely they must have some comment on it! Or is it just considered normal at this point? And what does the leaky faucet think? If the wait takes years for those of us that do not have a LID coming up in the near future, then we really need to know now.
For those with a LID coming up, I understand that a date is everything, but for those of us with an 06 LID, we really need more information.
Thank you RQ for trying, at least.
August 31st, 2006 at 4:37 pm
givemegrace, i love your site name, sweet!! welcome!
lid-08-08-05
August 31st, 2006 at 4:42 pm
So did NO ONE notice the fabulous play on words made by our venerable RQ at the beginning of her post???? “Our root vegetable…”????? I mean, I had to read it twice myself to make sure I was right but TG, J, archer, and several other of you sharp folks…well, I am downright shocked you let that one fly by! lol
Very clever RQ, very clever!!
August 31st, 2006 at 4:48 pm
flowerpower, I wish I had an answer.
Some agencies are predicting that the three-months-to-every-month time frames we’ve been seeing will continue indefinitely. Actually, most are now starting to predict this to current clients.
A few agencies are still maintaining that the CCAA will stabilize the wait at some point in the near future.
I’ve posted in the comments several times that there was a huge meeting in Beijing in April where at least one employee of each orphanage was required to attend. There is speculation that it was at this meeting that they straightened out the new regulations put in place after the Hunan fiasco and that orphanages started making more babies paper ready at that time. If this is true then we could start seeing more paper ready babies soon. I haven’t made this as a blog post because I’m being silly and I’m afraid I’ll jinx it.
August 31st, 2006 at 4:49 pm
girlzmama, can you explane it to me? I’m Dutch and don’t understand every joke or wordplay in English, sorry…..
August 31st, 2006 at 4:50 pm
Um, guys, I really am trying to downplay where it came from. Can we not point it out too terribly much?
August 31st, 2006 at 4:51 pm
No problem dutchdeb….Our root vegetable refers to a potato or, in our case here ‘TATER’ :) Does that make more sense? If not, ask and I’ll explain further.
August 31st, 2006 at 4:52 pm
<smacks forehead>
August 31st, 2006 at 4:54 pm
Sorry RQ…I did not realize that plus I posted before your request to downplay it came through. Soooo Sorry!!!!!
August 31st, 2006 at 4:54 pm
Thank’s girlzmama, I’ll get it!!! :-):-):-) I did translate it, but it didn’t make any sence to me. Now I know!
August 31st, 2006 at 4:57 pm
August 31st, 2006 at 4:58 pm
Dear RQ, I understand than rumours of that kind ought to be played down. They would just be too wonderful if they were true.
August 31st, 2006 at 5:00 pm
that was pretty good RQ…i did notice…sorry i didn’t get a chance to say anything earlier…lol
you got me girlzmama…totally let that one fly by. DOH!
must be slipping today.
seekingzuzuspetals- somewhere in there I think was a….. compliment? just kidding I totally get what you mean. ;) thanks! and really and truly i’m a dude. my DW can vouch for that ;) lol
August 31st, 2006 at 5:04 pm
that was totally tuber-lar man…
August 31st, 2006 at 5:09 pm
this spuds for you…
August 31st, 2006 at 5:18 pm
apparently the eyes have it.
August 31st, 2006 at 5:21 pm
Why didn’t the mother potato want her daughter to marry the famous newscaster?
Because he was a commontater.
August 31st, 2006 at 5:21 pm
Sorry… couldn’t resist :)
August 31st, 2006 at 5:22 pm
I think I’ll go get mashed….
August 31st, 2006 at 5:26 pm
what would be too good to be true? I am just getting on here now for the first time all day and I am confused. If the next referrals come to 7-28, that stinks! So what is the good part?
Sorry but I just don’t understand. I know why RQ donesn’t want to get anyone too excited about whatever it is but I need something to hold on to here.
August 31st, 2006 at 5:26 pm
yikes!
well I guess that pun’s been fried to a crisp. better stop before someone gets chippy again.
August 31st, 2006 at 5:29 pm
I’l be “twice baked” if this process does not speed up soon!
;)
August 31st, 2006 at 5:31 pm
Hey, did y’all hear that Edvard Munch’s “The Scream” was recovered today? Perfect timing as that painting pretty well expresses how these referral predictions have me feeling.
August 31st, 2006 at 5:34 pm
ahhhh that’s great to hear! that’s one of my favourite paintings… seriously.
but also how i typically look in the morning.
August 31st, 2006 at 5:35 pm
ROFL you all are too funny. Newbie here, thank you for all the info and work RQ
August 31st, 2006 at 5:40 pm
So I thought I’d go to a few agency sites today and look up what they are telling potential clients. Many have begun to put the current wait with caveats (ie., it could change at any moment) as in 12-14 months. One has it going out to 16 months and two have it now projected as long as 24 months. I was glad to see the two (who are large) state more realistic time frames. Just not glad that the situation has called for it.
August 31st, 2006 at 5:41 pm
No way! That’s always been one of my fav. paintings! Now there’s some good news!
August 31st, 2006 at 5:45 pm
Hello all, not a superstitious sort of person but as
I as golfing this afternoon, I felt something on my neck and saw it was a ladybug. After that I proceeded to birdie the next three holes and finish the day at a four over par 75, my lowest score in years. If I can do that so can the CCAA speed things up! FORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
August 31st, 2006 at 5:57 pm
yeah, and that’s FORE …not Four as in business days if the CCAA only goes to 7/28.
August 31st, 2006 at 6:32 pm
You guys are too funny. I was really hoping to have
Allison before Hannukah, So we could enjoy some
potato Latka’s together…. hehe. I am sure glad
that the faucet is still leaking and they didnt call
ROTO ROOTER YET! Or whom ever they call over
there. tgredthread you are a nut!! You make this
place so fun even when rummors aren’t.
August 31st, 2006 at 6:47 pm
Y’all make me wanna get chip faced! :-)
August 31st, 2006 at 7:03 pm
Or fried!
More, more! RQ’s got today’s Groan Award in her hand.
:-D
August 31st, 2006 at 7:05 pm
This PUNishment is so apPEALing.
August 31st, 2006 at 7:17 pm
I’m really going to be sick now, I so very sad. I really want to have our referral by Thanksgiving. Our SW does not want us to redo our I600 yet. It expires in feb. I not going to be able to keep it together much longer.
lid 10/10/05
August 31st, 2006 at 7:19 pm
You all are killin me tonight with your posts…. Too Funny!!!
Just sitting on the coastof NC enjoying our soon to be mild hurrricane.Think I’ll try to boat to work tomorrow if we have power. I too have to believe something has got to give with these referral games. CRAZY… As a Feb LID I think I’ll loose my mind if things with the CCAA don’t start making some sense.
Trying to be very patient, not working so well today. Thanks RQ and everyone for some fun today.
Adios
August 31st, 2006 at 7:19 pm
Just getting caught up. All I have to say is that I am impressed that RQ didnt get all roasted up by the half-baked suggestion that she is in this for the ad money!
August 31st, 2006 at 7:26 pm
you guys are a bunch of potatoes!
I have to work on my cleverness, haha
August 31st, 2006 at 7:44 pm
RQ,
Is there a certain time of month that the baby houses (orghanges) are to send in their paper ready babies or do they just send them as they get them?
Also it looked like most of the matching was done in 2 days 8-21 and 8-22 (I think). I find it interesting that they only worked two days and were able to get 9 days (7 business) done. I realize that maybe portions of that office were on vacation. Is the matching usually done in such a short time period? Or over the biggest part of the month? I am sure that once people get their referrals the referral date is the last thing they are looking at. Just wondering. Thanks.
Best friends LID 3-27-06
August 31st, 2006 at 7:45 pm
ROTFL!!! RQ should punish all us petulant children for being so disobedient to her chippy request! TG are you a screenwriter for a tv comedy?
August 31st, 2006 at 7:53 pm
ummm no, but I think it’d be fun. and I probably could at least write something a little funnier than what’s on the tube(r) these days.
i’m still laughing over all the spud puns you all did… :)
“i like dem french fried taters mmmmhmmmm”
August 31st, 2006 at 7:55 pm
Hi All! Newbie here….but I just had to chime in tonight and say thankyou. MnMommy…my LID is 10/12 and I too thought for sure we’d hear by Thanksgiving. As this looks less and less likely and we’re starting the process of redoing our I600, I could just cry. But instead I check in with the RQ and y’all just totally crack me up. I have enjoyed y’all so much and I thank you for keeping it witty because it’s just soooo good to laugh! (I thought I was going to spring a leak tonight I was laughing so hard) Thanks for all the info. RQ, you’re doing a great job.
August 31st, 2006 at 8:00 pm
welcome to the RQ realm phoebesmama.
August 31st, 2006 at 8:22 pm
I’d like to understand how baby files are reviewed. I personally know of a baby at a foster care home run by a non-Chinese woman who sent one of her babies files (NSN) to the CCAA for IA in early June. She hasn’t heard a peep from anyone! RQ any idea on how the baby files are reviewed by the CCAA and how long it takes to review the baby files??
August 31st, 2006 at 8:32 pm
Hey, does this mean we’re all getting “TATER” tots?
August 31st, 2006 at 8:40 pm
Good question khansen.
If the file was sent in June you’d think the file would have been reviewed and matched in July and the parents would be on their way in the next couple of weeks.
I’m not sure that the foster mom would be made aware of a match just yet, but I honestly have no idea how that works.
August 31st, 2006 at 8:44 pm
I have figured this out. RQ is actually working for the CCAA and they are making money on the ads on this site.
Now they realized that if they drive us crazy, they steer more traffic to the site and sell more ads. Brilliant!
Or maybe I’ve read too many Dan Drown novels. Say, that would make a good premise for a book. The CCAA Code. Hmmm, now who should play me in the movie?
August 31st, 2006 at 11:51 pm
“chip faced…”
Oy.
August 31st, 2006 at 11:55 pm
Can we vote people off the island here? I think we could make a poll for those we’d like to see banished to the cornfields. lex me see if I can think of anyone….
September 1st, 2006 at 12:56 am
Since we are requesting an older child (4-7) I asked my agency how this works if the child is fostered out. Depending on the province and the financial position of the orphanage, the child may be removed from the foster family and sent back to the orphanage to take english classes (obviously if this is the adopting parents native language). So this would indicate that the foster parents and orphanage would be aware of a match.
Also when we adopted our first daughter in 2001 we visited her foster family who told me that the orphanage alerted them that she was matched to a U.S. couple. The foster mother then told me every time our daughter saw a caucasian couple on TV she would say ‘mamma’ ‘baba’.
September 1st, 2006 at 4:07 am
“i like dem french fried taters mmmmhmmmmâ€
Ooooh, tg, that’s in my top 5 all time movie favourites [if only I could remember the name of it] …..Billy Bob Thornton in ………..??
Aaaaaaagh, help me out here pleeeease!
September 1st, 2006 at 8:56 am
Seachange
It was Sling blade…mmmmhmmmm
September 1st, 2006 at 5:57 pm
yes!!! loved it - thanks mom 222b
mmmmhmmmm right back at ya ;-)