And now it’s September
It’s Monday evening in China. When they go to work again tonight (their Tuesday morning) it will be the beginning of the 14th day since the last referrals were mailed.
What is the wait going to do? The following things have been said in the past week:
- A couple of agencies have recently let their clients know that the CCAA has told them that the current trend of taking two to three months to get through a month is going to continue.
- One agency is telling their December people to expect their referral in December.
- Another agency is saying that the CCAA will start speeding things back up in the next couple of months.
Again, we don’t know which is correct. I tend to believe the agencies who say “more of the same” while I’m hoping that the other agencies are right.
As for the next cut-off date, most agencies are still estimating 7/28 while one lone agency is saying that mid August is a possibility.
There is still no word on when we may see something official from the CCAA on the possible new rules. I don’t believe they’ve decided on everything and gotten approval for it all yet, so (if this is true) there is nothing official yet. Once the CCAA decides what they want the new rules to be they submit them to the Ministry of Civil Affairs who must approve them. I have no idea how long this may take, but I’m pretty sure we will not get a heads up about it.
September 4th, 2006 at 8:59 am
I tend to agree with the “more of same” agencies too. I can easily see the basis for that kind of prediction. With the other two, I wonder why they are saying what they’re saying? Are they providing any rationale? Seems irresponsible to make a prediction like that and get their clients hopes up if it is based on nothing. Just wondering.
September 4th, 2006 at 9:05 am
I think it goes back to the “depends on who you ask” thing. Some people at the CCAA are still sticking to the “our ideal wait is about 12 months and we don’t really want to go over that but there may be some fluctuations” while other people at the CCAA are saying “it will continue to take 2 to 3 months to process a month of LID’s”.
September 4th, 2006 at 9:06 am
How could December in December be a reality any more? They’d not only have to speed up, they’d have to do two months per month for October and November. Apart from the obvious, we know October was a huge month for applications. It seems hugely irresponsible to be telling people they’ll hear this year when the chances are next to impossible.
But if we’re talking impossible…how about some referrals being mailed this week?!!!
LID 25 July 2005
September 4th, 2006 at 9:06 am
This wait is making me crazy. With a January ‘06 LID, it is really difficult to imagine ever getting our referral.
September 4th, 2006 at 9:08 am
October is huge, right? Are there any other really huge months?
September 4th, 2006 at 9:14 am
I like to stay optimistic, but December in December has to be completely false. Has CCAA ever done over a month of referrals at one time?
September 4th, 2006 at 9:21 am
Well they did double months for a while post-SARS but there wasn’t the issue of less paper-ready babies then. And if that’s true, there’s no way it’s happening again sadly. Or happily. Or…oh you know what I mean.
September 4th, 2006 at 9:40 am
Here is my bet-
They aren’t going to put out new restrictions. I just get this feeling that nothing is going to come of it. Perhaps when CCAA caught wind of the fact that we were on to them, they decided to just stick with a case-by-case decision so they dont have to be accountable to anyone on why some families are rejected. If anything comes of new restrictions, it won’t be big enough to change the current slow rate of progress each month.
Thats my guess for today.
September 4th, 2006 at 9:44 am
Wouldn’t the CCAA have something of a “face†problem if they were to suddenly speed things up? As we know, they said way back in November that the delay was due to the huge number of dossiers compared to the shrinking number of babies available for IA. We know the backlog in dossiers isn’t going away any time soon so if they were to suddenly speed up, wouldn’t it kind of illustrate that what they said wasn’t the (whole) truth? I don’t think they want that. So it just doesn’t make sense to me that they would reverse this trend, given what they’ve said…unfortunately. I felt a big “uh oh” when they issued that statement in November, and I still feel that way. That’s why I just can’t “get” where some of these agencies are coming from with their rhetoric…much as I would like to believe them.
September 4th, 2006 at 9:46 am
Well, if this next batch of referrals only goes until the 28th, then we will have hit the 4-months-to-get-through-a-month mark, no?
End of June through July13th ….1 month
July 13th through July 22nd ….2 months
July 23rd through July 28th …. 3 months
July 29th through ???? …. 4 months
Since August is roughly the same size as July,
it could be February before I see a referral if they continue at the same rate as July, right?
(I have an 8/30/05 LID)
September 4th, 2006 at 9:47 am
If the speculation about the orphanage directors getting instructions about the new (post Hunan) rules at the big meeting in April is correct then we could expect to see a lot more paper ready babies available soon. Not just from Hunan, but from all provinces. That’s just a theory though, no way to know at this point if it’s correct. But, if it is then the CCAA can just say they have been busy bringing more orphanages online and bla bla bla and due to their excellent work there are now a lot more paper ready babies.
September 4th, 2006 at 9:49 am
seekingzuzuspetals-
I guess the CCAA could justify a speed up in referrals by saying that more babies “suddenly” became paper-ready.
September 4th, 2006 at 9:50 am
Just to be clear, I’m not saying this will happen, just saying that I can see a logical way it could happen. I tend to believe the “continue as it has been” agencies, but I’m still hoping for the other.
September 4th, 2006 at 9:54 am
RQ - that sounds good to me! I hope this projection comes true!!
September 4th, 2006 at 9:56 am
“One agency is telling their December people to expect their referral in December.”
Baha! Hey, can someone hook me up with tickets to Fantasyland, too? First class seats, please, because I want what they’re drinking. Oh wait, the captain is speaking…
“And if you look out the left side of the cabin right now, you can see the sprawling river of Denile.”
Sarcasm is another great coping mechanism. :^)
September 4th, 2006 at 9:56 am
Wow - I can’t believe an agency is telling Dec LIDer’s that they will get a referral in Dec. We are LID 12/20/05 and I have settled with the fact we won’t get our referral until next spring. Our agency is not even saying the 12 month mark anymore. But if more paper ready babies are going to be flowing in, things could change. Let’s hope so.
September 4th, 2006 at 9:58 am
I agree with ya’ll, even if they do a major speed up I just don’t see December in December happening.
I’d love to get egg on my face with this one, but I just don’t see it happening.
September 4th, 2006 at 10:01 am
Y’know, the way our luck has gone, it would be just typical if the CCAA miraculously speeds up once we get our referral, after 14 months since LID and 35 months since we started the whole thing! That alone makes me think RQ’s theory may be spot on! In fact, if I had any money left I’d put it on December in December right now!
September 4th, 2006 at 10:13 am
Hey J - you and I are in the same, very slow line. I hope like you do that this process speeds up soon for all those after us. I’m not willing to put money on it - but I do hope for all those after us it does speed up not down. Good wishes to all.
Anne
LID 7.25.05
September 4th, 2006 at 10:20 am
RQ-was it previously mentioned in one of the posts that dossiers are taken in to the review room 2 months at a time? If so does that mean to say that Dec & Jan are in there now?
Thanks for all of your hard work in helping to keep us sane!
LID 3//21/06
September 4th, 2006 at 10:23 am
Hi all,
I still am very interested to see what happens to referrals once we get to August because I know that many many people did not get a quick LID last year when they were DTC. Alot of people in the August DTC group were DTC mid-late July and received late August LIDs. I am still hoping that most of August is referred together, not this month I assume, but maybe October or November. I have to believe I will see a picture by Christmas. I know I will have to redo my 171, but I am still hoping to see that picture by the holidays! It is the only thing keeping me going!!!
Of course, I would love to see more progress this month, but the 28th sounds like it might be the date.
:( WFP LID 8/24/05
September 4th, 2006 at 10:29 am
Okay - I’m joining the “it’s all my fault - I need to apologize” line. I admit - I’ve felt the whole time that we could “miscarry” that if I got too emotionally involved that it would be be terminated. So I’ve not completed the final steps of the nesting period. I’m sorry! I will go buy her crib and linens and start nesting this week. My family needs some positive steps to realize she will be coming home to us. All they see now is Mom on the RQ site morning, noon and night. It will speed up as-soon-as I get my butt in gear!
9/9 (praying for November)
September 4th, 2006 at 10:56 am
You stated “If the speculation about the orphanage directors getting instructions about the new (post Hunan) rules at the big meeting in April is correct….”
I have been thinking that things slowed down last year at exactly the same time as the news came out about the stolen babies in Hunan. I have wondered ever since if they were being more through in thelr checking out the babies abandonment / histories.
What could be worse for the CCAA than having to call the JONES FAMILY in KANSAS to tell them that their daughter was stolen from the WONG FAMILY in HUNAN and she would have to be returned ??? Just think of the international scandal involved. Talk about loosing face!
What do you know about the meeting in April and the rules for the orphanages. I have been assuming that was what was going on but your post was the first confirmation of it.
September 4th, 2006 at 11:02 am
An elephant just gave birth at our local Zoo. She was pregnant for 21 months!! I may go have to visit with her to she how she dealt with the wait!!
LID 9/16/05
September 4th, 2006 at 11:11 am
RQ
Thanks for giving something positive to think about (more paper ready babys soon).
Gives us spring 2006 LID’s something to set our hopes on. Oherwise I better learn some elephantlanguage and visit the Zoo aswell.
September 4th, 2006 at 11:37 am
rq - what ever happened to those agencies that supposedly got a list of who might get a referral this year? i know you can’t name agencies, but is there a correlation between an agency with a list and the agency who is thinking december in december? (this is SO wishful thinking!!) i remember too that there was a family who was told by the ccaa director to expect his referral in december…could he be with this agency?
keeping my fingers crossed that december in december is right…
mara
September 4th, 2006 at 12:17 pm
Hi All! July 25 LID here — hoping and praying that things will speed back up for everyone! Hopefully referrals will be here in the next two weeks! It’s been a LONG road but I know it will all be worth it. I’ve started the process for our I-600A to be submitted again — we won’t make it home b-4 ours expires — ACK.
I haven’t been able to bring myself to do anything for the baby yet. I want to wait until we get the referral — then I’ll kick it into HIGH gear and keep myself VERY busy for the next 6 to 8 weeks!!
September 4th, 2006 at 12:28 pm
katri, it always makes me feel so so much better when I buy something for our daughter, even a doll or a hair bow. I suppose it makes it seem more real. You go girl, involving the family enhances the fun and it’s good family bonding time, too. Just my opinion. Best wishes.
mom2isabel, your july referral post reallllly hit me. Taking 4 months to complete July is sad. Surely, the ccaa will dip into August this month. Surely, yes?
September 4th, 2006 at 12:32 pm
zoesmama, I’ll hope with you. You’re next,,,yea!!! We submitted our I-600A last week, boohiss. Ya gotta do what ya gotta do!! I hope your 14 yo is ok, now. Here’s to GREAT rumors this week!!!
lid~08-08-05
September 4th, 2006 at 12:51 pm
I haven’t heard anything about the matching room. Did I miss it or are there no rumors yet?
September 4th, 2006 at 1:05 pm
Sometimes it’s hard to know just what to believe. All of this is out of our control and the only way we feel a tiny bit of control(or at least coping with it) is this board. RQ, thanks for your work here. I tend to agree that this year will end with the slow down still in place, a hard truth to face, but hey at least we have each other!! lol
Jen
lid 3/24 /06
September 4th, 2006 at 1:22 pm
In my “Worst Case Scenario” chart of one week of LIDs per month of referrals it totally works out to have December in December. December 2007, that is.
September 4th, 2006 at 2:46 pm
lmjohanson - “In my “Worst Case Scenario†chart of one week of LIDs per month of referrals it totally works out to have December in December. December 2007, that is.”
Now that is just evil….can you imagine if that’s what they mean? Aakkkk! I can’t even deal with that thought.
DTC - hopefully end of Sept 2006 (so I’m really sweatin’)
September 4th, 2006 at 3:00 pm
foreverluv - I wish I could say I was kidding, but unfortunately, I’m not.
September 4th, 2006 at 5:30 pm
Is it just me or does it seem to anyone else that maybe even CCAA does not know what’s going to happen next with referral numbers? I know there’s talk of a CCAA “plan” but I’ve started to think CCAA has been sideswiped by the huge increase in files combined with the apparent reduction in the number of ready babies.
I mean 3-4 months to get through one month of files just can’t be sustainable surely??!!
No disrespect is intended towards CCAA, but it seems to me like they’re in freefall and maybe trying to save face by saying nothing.
LID 06/06/06 and seeing no end to this crazy ride….
September 4th, 2006 at 8:35 pm
SeaChange, not to be rude..but I am glad I don’t have your LID…lol:)
September 4th, 2006 at 8:51 pm
The last official word we received from our agency was that they thought/hoped we get our referral in September (we have a Sept 9, 2005 LID) Perhaps they’re all just grasping at straws, and the best they can come up with is to stick to a 12-month wait! We’re off to get our fingerprints re-done tomorrow morning, and then it’s on to re-doing the homestudy documents, as that expires 1/27/07. I can’t believe we don’t expect to be back with the baby by then….
September 4th, 2006 at 11:34 pm
Oh ye of little hope…..A dramatic increase of referrals ( which would equal paper ready babies) can happen. In 2004 when we were logged in the wait was 9 to 10 months. We got our referral in 5.5 months. Do the math.
September 5th, 2006 at 12:03 am
sodergal, i am doing the math : 3 to 4 weeks to get thru one month….is there another way to calculate that? i wish there was.
3tsmom, i’m struggling and feeling really sad here - right now i’m not yucking it up. i know my feelings of despair today will pass but it’s very hard from a mid ‘06 LID perspective - so just a little empathy would go a long way -
I would guess lots of us feel the same way from time to time.
September 5th, 2006 at 12:07 am
Well, if it’s december in december, I’d better get cracking. DD #1 needs a passport if she’s going to travel with us to get DD #2.
Just as a bit of hope,DD #1 was projected to take a 12-14 month wait, and arrived in 8 months. Even our agency was shocked. So shocked in fact, that they had us scheduled for a travel meeting 2 days AFTER we wound up having to leave for China. (Travel meetings were only offered once a month, and were assigned months in advance, so the speed up completely caught them by surprise.)
September 5th, 2006 at 6:06 am
Hi Everyone,
I am a first time poster and long time reader. Just thought I would say firstly how amazing I think this sight is and that I spend wayyyyyyy too many hours of my working day on it.
Even though sometimes it is really hard seeing the rumours come out it has helped me prepare myself so much over the last few months for those crushing teeeeenyyy tiny days worth of referrals. I am starting to really think we never will get our baby we have now been waiting, R u guys ready for this over 5 years!!!! Things don’t move quickly down under! and we have a March 06 LID and at current trends I have worked out we may have to wait another 3 years ARRRRGHHHHH!!!!
Sorry not meaning to whine but starting to lose hope.
Anyway keep up the great work RQ and know that you are appreciated acrross the globe.
September 5th, 2006 at 6:14 am
Just a question for RQ…
Waiting for MeiMei says brings up a good point. We have talked about the grinding halt of referral and the previous “speed up” (which is when some of us decided to adopt and China looked good b/c of the 6 month wait). What did the referral timeline and numbers look like before the speed up and what did the referral timeline and numbers look like during the speed up? Let me say this differently, how far behind were they and what did they do to speed up?
September 5th, 2006 at 6:51 am
seachange
i think maybe she was referring to the 6/6/6 LID in terms of its symbolism and not that it is so far out in time…at least i hope that is what 3tsmom meant
September 5th, 2006 at 8:07 am
mmmm, me too. Thanks windthrow, I never have been into the 666 thing…meanwhile, I’m just trying to do my best to hold onto hope for our LID and all the later LID folk. I think there’s lots of us doing it tough right now.
September 5th, 2006 at 9:01 am
Seachange, honey, I was teasing…I would take your LID over mine….mine is 09/10/2006….I apologize if I uffended you:(…
I was reffering to you 06/06/06 LID
September 5th, 2006 at 10:31 am
I dont post very often, but with a 1/4/06 LID, I did call my agency and flat out asked if I would be recieving a referral by feb. and they told me “most likely not”. So, I do hope that the December in December comes to past, I am not holding my breath in fear of passing out!
September 5th, 2006 at 2:03 pm
Hi Everyone,
this is my second adoption. Based on my current and former agencies, the wait times will only increase. (I hope to God that I am wrong, but their guessimates are 14-months.) Given that when I started the paperwork for the second adoption, I was told the wait was 4-6 months and that I could have my file expidited…neither of which happened for me…I have almost come to terms with this WAIT. What keeps me going is keeping busy and enjoying with my first adopted child…and reading RQ. LID 13/09/06
September 5th, 2006 at 2:10 pm
i mean LID 13/09/05
September 5th, 2006 at 6:11 pm
thanks 3tsmom, I misunderstood….I’m just real teary and fragile and grumpy right now [ ask my poor dh]. OK, gonna go have a big steaming cup of get-over-myself now and crawl out from under my cloud……;-)
September 5th, 2006 at 8:47 pm
This is the first time I’v had to log on to RQ’s site today. I’m back at work and I was totally in withdrawal until I got home. I waited until Sunshine was in bed before I cranked the computer on. Gee, I guess this is the new world order for me. During the summer months, I checked, oh, let’s see, 15 times a day!! Now *that’s* withdrawal.
I told my boss today that I’ll be a very lucky person to get my referral in February but more likely next May. She nearly fell over! I just said, “Don’t ask”. *She went to Beijing this summer on holiday. Talk about rubbing my nose in it! LOL
Hang in there everyone.
Snick
dd Sunshine 5.4
lid Oct 31