From Europe
An agency in Europe has posted on their web page to let their people know the cut off date of August 9th.
They go on to say that the next batch of referrals will “certainly include the important group” of the August 18th LID’s. Then they talk a bit about how the next batch may (or may not) be delayed a bit because of the October holiday, they warn it could be the first week of November. Then they talk a bit about how the August 18 group will possibly travel over the Christmas holidays and how that can complicate the purchase of airline tickets.
My interpretation of this paragraph is simply that this agency/country has a lot of people logged in on 8/18. We don’t see a big percentage worldwide for this day, but in this country (I’ve seen some stats) the 18th is a big day so I’m assuming it may be for this agency. So, they are trying to take care of this huge group of people and assure them they are next and warn them that they may be travelling during Christmas.
How can they be sure the 18th will be included? Good question.
September 25th, 2006 at 9:18 pm
RQ,
Interesting that they are so confident about the 18th. It makes me believe that they really do know more than we are told. If they get only to the 18th that would be a poor month.
I am still hoping they can maintain or better the 17 days.
What is your feeling?
September 25th, 2006 at 9:23 pm
I would hope that the CCAA would match a minimum of 9 days. Maybe they are confident that they will without knowing anything for certain.
September 25th, 2006 at 9:23 pm
I do not get the idea that they are saying the next cut-off will be the 18th, just that they are sure the 18th will be included.
I haven’t done a complete analysis, but with a very quick look I feel that the next cut off will be the 23rd or 24th, but I think the 23rd is probably the best bet.
September 25th, 2006 at 9:39 pm
Hi everybody,
There were a couple of questions about my last post on the Aug 9th blog entry. Basically, I have not seen anyone who received a referral this month with a dtc date after 7/22 (I could be totally wrong) — I did see someone with a dtc date of 7/21 that just got a referral. My theory is that between 7/22 and some other date in August (I don’t know) the LIDs were anywhere from 8/10 to 8/24, not necessarily in order of dtc. So, I got a LID of 8/24 with a dtc of 7/22 where as someone else may have a lid of 8/11 with a dtc of 7/22. I think we will all end up getting our referrals together, next month.
Someone said that China does not even know our dtc date. Do we know that for sure? I got a nice letter from my agency with my dtc date saying that my dossier was “received”. They may keep track. Or may not. Who knows.
If someone has a dtc after 7/22 and has already gotten a referral, my theory out the window. If someone has a dtc of before 7/22 with a LID of after 8/9, my theory is out the window. If they refer up to 8/23 next time my theory…. OK you get the picture.
I could be way off base. But it means that all of us 8/10-8/24 get a referral next time, and I like that. So I am sticking with it. For now.
Not that my gut feelings have EVER been right before. Oh well! First time for everything!
:) wfp 8/24/05
September 25th, 2006 at 10:09 pm
RQ
I know you keep saying ‘I haven’t done my analysis yet’ so my question may be too premature.
When I add 17 to Aug 9th. I get Aug 28th. What would make you think it is going to be earlier like the 23rd or 24th?
September 25th, 2006 at 10:24 pm
Waitingforpink, I totally understand what you are saying. I have had this theory for a year now. Same thing happened with our agency. I understand because everybody that were dtc from Sept 1 through Sept 26, were LID on Sept 29. Our friends with a different agency was dtc on Sept 9 and was not logged in until October 10. For a whole year now, I have the feeling that she will get her referral the same day as us. I believe that everybody that was dtc at the very end of August to Sept 26 will get referrals together. I would be very curious to know someone from other agencies that were dtc after August 26 and find out what their LID is. Sorry so long. I just had to let you know I understand what you are saying. I agree.
September 25th, 2006 at 10:24 pm
Waitingforpink,
Trying to answer your questions… possibly clear up a bit of confusion.
DTC = Dossier to China (agency sends dossier to China)
LID = Log in Date (dossier logged in by CCAA)
DTC is the date that your agency sent your documents to China. The relationship between this date and the date your dossier is logged in (LID) is VERY dependent on how your agency handles translation and submitting docs to CCAA. For example, some agencies translate docs in the US and then send directly to CCAA. Others send the docs to their office in China, translate there and then submit to CCAA. If translated in the US then it probably takes longer to send the dossier from the US, but may take less time between DTC and LID. No guarantee here… because LID is still dependent on CCAA schedule with respect to logging in documents.
DTC is not a good date to go by as this date is NOT a reflection of when CCAA receives your dossier. LID is the date CCAA assigns to your dossier and IS the way you can determine where your documents are in the queue.
Hope this helps…
For what it is worth, here’s our timeline:
DTC - 7/8/2005
LID - 7/27/2005
DOR - 9/25/2006 — TODAY!!!
Anticipate travel end of Nov.
Karen
September 25th, 2006 at 10:32 pm
I am aware of situations where people who were DTC well after another couple were DTC got their referral long before the other couple because they were logged in earlier. (let me try that again - Couple A dtc before Couple B, but Couple B logged in first, and Couple B referred a month or more earlier than Couple A)
The CCAA does not care about your DTC date, they stricly go by the LID date.
Sorry, I could greatly benefit from the CCAA going by DTC date instead of LID date, but I’m not counting on it. I know there are people who were DTC a week or more after me who will likely get a referral a month before me.
September 25th, 2006 at 10:45 pm
I agree they don’t care about DTC. I just have had that feeling that all was intentional on the CCAA’s part. I feel like they have known all along what dates they are grouping together at least on the September month. I can’t wait to find out. Hope waitforpink and I are right. :)
September 25th, 2006 at 11:05 pm
Congratulations Karen on your referral!
Like RQ said, DTC doesn’t really matter. The only date that is important for the CCAA is LID. And from what I understand, it doesn’t really matter if your documents are translated here or there, because once we’re LID, we all stand in the same line. And wait…..
September 25th, 2006 at 11:11 pm
I think we had an unusually quick log in. We were DTC on May 30, 2006 and from viewing the tracking #, we knew China received our dossier on June 5, 2006. We were logged in on June 6, 2006. We’ve been told that is mighty speedy. I was hoping that since we were logged in so quicky, that was a sign things were speeding up. I was a bit ignorant at that point.
I’m still possitive things will speed up especially after the first of the year! I’m thinking that they might only be able to have a certain number of babies leave the country each year and so maybe that’s why it’s slow. I’m probably all wrong though. I believe however that they are trying to get more orphanages in the IA program and that should help. I’m also hoping that 2006 will be a bit lighter of a load for them to handle too. I’m also optomistic that they will want to do a big push before the Olympics to “clear out” the orphanages as much as possible to avoid what could be perceived as not so great conditions for their orphans.
It seems so far off and unreal at this point. I sometimes wish I could just forget about all of this for a year or I could just go to sleep and then wake up when our referral comes. I went to some website that predicts when you will receive your referral based on some mathematical calculation and it estimated March of 2008. Ugh!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then it gave a range from June 2007 - to some time in 2011. I don’t know which month in 2011 because my eyes were too glued to the 2011. OMG, this is unreal. I just hope and hope and hope things will turn around a little! Otherwise the few outfits I have bought for her might be eaten by the moths before she gets to wear them. Can anyone relate? Is there anyone else out there that is possitive that can cheer me up?
K
6/6/06
September 25th, 2006 at 11:11 pm
RQ,
This is my first post on your site. I looked at your July and August polls and came up with the same conclusion as you for the next possible cut off date. I based my conclusion on the number of waiting families rather than number of days. Of course I hope the CCAA will go farther.
September 25th, 2006 at 11:39 pm
keelyheinzen,
We have the same LID - 06.06.06. We were DTC 1 June 06 and LID 6 June 06. I am in Australia so not sure if that makes a difference - and I also saw that same referral prediction site you went to… nearly fell off my chair (at work - midday here) when I saw 2011…
Kenya
September 25th, 2006 at 11:48 pm
keelyheinzen
We have a 2-15-06 our prediction was 8/2009.
I just keep hoping something will turn around and CCAA will match a little faster. It is hard when you think you are waiting in the 6 to 8 month line but you are really in the 12-24 month line. I guess this should be par for the course, I always choose the slowest line at the grocery store too.
Just hang in there, I have to believe we will all get our babies one day soon!
M
September 26th, 2006 at 12:31 am
RQ,
OT a bit… Will you be doing another poll that includes all of September soon? We were one of the families that got a very delayed LID (10/24) even though our DTC was 9/16. I am just curious what the numbers look like between Sept 16th and the middle of October. My agency that has consistent LID’s has only one very small group in September. Thank you!
September 26th, 2006 at 7:33 am
I have to say I don’t think LID and DTC matter in relationship to this either. As far as how speedy out DTC to LID was, we were DTC on 9/23 and LID 9/29, very fast. However, all I can focus on is that if I had gotten busy and gotten my dossier in faster, we may not have been affected by the lengthening time line so much. However, at the time we were being told 6-8 months and I was a bit clueless on how things work. I knew timelines could flucuate, but who would have thought they would double, plus some? I agree we may not get out of Aug. in Oct. I also think that China only refers a certain # each year and they have slowed things down so as not to go over a certain number of children leaving this year. Just my 2 cents! I am also anxious fr the poll as we will FINALLY be on it!
Meg
LID 9/29
September 26th, 2006 at 7:59 am
I have hope for October (I have to). I think this discussion came up before but in the past the new CCAA year begins in December. Last year in October is when we started to see CCAA slow down dramatically from the year before (October was the first time they stopped doing full months). This was a month before the Hunan trafficking case played out. Children referred in October were adopted in December/January. If CCAA had a new quota, they would have requested fewer babies to become paper-ready from the SWIs. Perhaps the quota was lower because CCAA or someone higher up really did want the wait time to get to 12 months. Maybe Hunan and the increase in popularity of adoption from China fouled that up a bit. But CCAA knows how many dossiers from parents it has on hand. They have stated where they would like the wait to stay. They’ve hinted at it stabilizing. Maybe they are about to start the new year of adoptions with a slightly higher quota, which means they’ve requested more paper ready babies (plus babies are now becoming available across China that meet the new paper trail requirements). If things suddenly slowed down last October - maybe they are about to speed up slightly (or at least stabilize - which is in itself a speed up) this October. Anyone else buying into this theory???
September 26th, 2006 at 8:17 am
waitingfor2 - that’s perfectly good theory, one that I’ve tossed around as a possibility a few times as well.
September 26th, 2006 at 8:33 am
Hi TAB-
Thanks for understanding my confusing post! We’ll see how it all plays out. I know that technically dtc does not matter, and I know that my LID is my “number” in line, but I also think that the Aug 9th cutoff is very interesting in relation to what happened with dtc and lid last year. I am not counting on my theory at all, but I am interested to watch and see how it works out. And RQ - you might be surprised. You may get your referral at the same time as those people who were dtc after you but logged in before. I think it is worth watching.
If waitingfor2 is right, we might see a whole month, which would even the dtc to lid thing out some.
Who knows? And my theory could come true just by sheer coincidence. But boy, if I get my referral next month, there would be one happy girl here!!!!
Im pulling for CCAA to get through the big 8/24 next month somehow!
:) wfp
September 26th, 2006 at 8:37 am
waitingforpink
we were
DTC 7-25-05
LID 8-8-06
DOR 9-25-06
not sure if that is the info you were looking for
mjs mom
September 26th, 2006 at 8:54 am
mjs mom-
Yup - that blows my theory!! Oh well, fun while it lasted! : )
TAB - still hope for you tho!
Anyway, still pulling for thru 8/24!
:) wfp
September 26th, 2006 at 9:04 am
I am so cray, allergy med. I should have typed 8-8-05
September 26th, 2006 at 9:05 am
I have lost it, Crazy. I am waiting to hear from our agency with our translation of our referral.
.mjsmom
September 26th, 2006 at 10:09 am
waitingforpink-I have the same theory as you-DTC 7/22 LID 8/23
September 26th, 2006 at 12:19 pm
Are families in China over Christmas sometimes??
September 26th, 2006 at 12:34 pm
Hi slowboat
love your name (isn’t it the truth!!) at least you got a 8/23 LID — you should be in next month. Me, on the other hand, …..
we’ll see. :) wfp
September 26th, 2006 at 12:52 pm
na4ladybug,
My large China only sends families during Christmas. I am thinking that other agencies do as well!
September 26th, 2006 at 4:26 pm
Hey waiting for pink-I am going to keep my fingers crossed for both of us.
September 26th, 2006 at 10:00 pm
Hi Waiting for Pink - I hope your theory is true but not sure if this supports or blows it for you - we were Aug 5 DTC and Aug 17 LID