End of September Analysis
As we’ve talked about before, the CCAA did a lot more matches in June than they have done in subsequent months. July, August, and September have all been within about 15% of each other.
I will not be listing the Good Case Scenario using the June numbers any more. Three months in a row of almost half of what they did in June is probably a good indication that what we are seeing is probably what they are going to continue doing. I would love to get egg on my face and have them refer double the families, but I’m just trying to be realistic.
Looking at the number of families matched per month, the next two months could have their cut off date fall somewhere within the red circles:
| October Cut | November Cut |
 |
 |
August 24th is a toss up. It could go either way. Another thing to consider, not so long ago there was a big day that they managed to do, but LID’s from two agencies were not included. When the agencies called the CCAA to find out where the referrals were they were told that there had been an error and their LID dates were actually later. Some wondered then if the CCAA had moved those people’s LID dates so they could get what they’d done of that day out the door. I think it is a good thing to get all matches made out the door, but I hope no more people have their LID date moved like that.
As for November, it looks like there is a very good chance that August 31st will be included, but since the days following that day are so small, it’s really hard to tell exactly when the cut off could be.
As always, the CCAA could choose to do more or less matches per month than they have been doing. June was a lot bigger, we know they are capable of it. Now if they will just do it some more. Please.
September 26th, 2006 at 10:42 am
RQ, don’t you mean October and November cut-offs, not September and October? Let’s keep everything crossed that they go back to the number we saw in June.
LID 9/29
September 26th, 2006 at 10:42 am
Dear RQ–
I’m confused. Shouldn’t your months be Oct and November as the September matches have already arrived?
Or….of course, the alternative. I have not had my coffee yet and just don’t get this.
Cheers
Liz
September 26th, 2006 at 10:43 am
RQ, Maybe I’m reading this wrong but shouldn’t the cut months be Oct and Nov. We just received Sept. referrals.
Birdeez
LID 10/14/05
September 26th, 2006 at 10:49 am
Yep, ya’ll are right. I fixed it.
I guess I’m in denial that we are almost to October and I’m still so far away from a referral.
September 26th, 2006 at 10:56 am
RQ, should that second-to-last paragraph also be November, not October? I’d love to see August 31 people getting a referral in October but unfortunately I think it’s unlikely. :(
September 26th, 2006 at 10:59 am
RQ — I think you are dead-on in your analysis. But i look at these numbers and I just can’t believe we’ve gotten to this point, i.e. no speed-up, continued lame referral batches, no end in sight. Is this really happening? I’m dying for some good news here.
LID 2/17/06
September 26th, 2006 at 11:02 am
As my 2 year old nephew says….”WAAAAH” When he does not like the answer he gets. This means November people will not see a referral until early-mid 2007! :(
September 26th, 2006 at 11:03 am
I’m looking forward to the next polls. I’m way curious to find out how big 9/29/05 is. I keep seeing more and more people pop up with that LID date, which I love to see! It could be I’m just noticing it more because it’s our LID date. :)
Last month I was going with my agency’s prediction of a February referral. With this last batch figured into my predictions, it’s January now. We picked up a month (if they stay at around this rate). MAYBE december, but I have this feeling if 9/29 is big, they’ll cut off right before it.
I’m tend toward pessimism/realism, I guess. Makes for less heartbreak in the end.
September 26th, 2006 at 11:09 am
I’m confused — when you said:
“As always, the CCAA could choose to do more or less matches per month than they have been doing. June was a lot bigger, we know they are capable of it.” — maybe I missed something a while back, but how do we know for certain that lots more Non-Special-Needs (relatively healthy) paper-ready babies from IA-orphanges ARE available to be matched? I thought that one big factor for the slowdown was that there simply aren’t enough NSN paper-ready children available for matching.
A few days ago on our national (Canadian) news, China publicly acknowledged via official statement that rates of severe birth defects had doubled (doubled since when they didn’t say; independent sources say they’ve way more than doubled in the past 5 years). Apply this to orphaned infants & that means that there are 50% fewer NSN babies available for IA than in past yuears (and more parents waiting!). And more Chinese parents turning to adoption.
So I would LOVE to know that there are paper-ready children in need of families and that the CCAA is just choosing to control the rate. I wanna believe!
September 26th, 2006 at 11:25 am
Eli,
you and i have the same LID so i feel your pain!!!!! YIKES, i would like to see our daughter sometime in this millenium
Kathy
September 26th, 2006 at 11:30 am
KitKat, I know, i’m just hoping for the year 2007 at this point!
September 26th, 2006 at 11:37 am
KitKat – the poll numbers show that they matched almost double the number of families in June as they did in the months after that.
As for the rest of your math/logic, I’m not sure I follow it enough to comment on what you’re saying. It sounds like you are saying that since the birth defect rate has doubled that there should be half has many SNS babies, but I’m pretty sure that logic is flawed. If that is what you are trying to say.
September 26th, 2006 at 11:39 am
Well, with LID of 9-2 it makes sense I would get my referral in November. I started this process when I turned 40 – November 17th and this November makes 3 years. It seems to fit. Thanks RQ – I know these are not the numbers you were hoping for, but each month we are closer! Hang in there everyone!
September 26th, 2006 at 11:41 am
I would love to see your projection for December. How far do you think they’ll get into September?
September 26th, 2006 at 11:46 am
HoosierBaby,
Our daily polls only go through September 11th. It looks like they’ll get at least that far, but without data beyond that there is no way to say how far.
Another poll will be up soon. Very soon. I will finally get to vote in a daily poll.
September 26th, 2006 at 11:49 am
Ah, just as I suspected…with an August 23rd LID, we are right on the cusp of this prediction. I like the good case scenario of getting through to the 23rd or 24th. However, I am preparing for the bad case scenario!
Thank you for providing the analysis!!
September 26th, 2006 at 11:55 am
There is no longer a good and bad case scenario. There is just this scenario.
This estimate is based on the numbers they have done the last three months. Since those numbers are faily consistent, this is neither an optimistic or pessimistic scenario.
September 26th, 2006 at 12:03 pm
I mentioned this in the forum but my good sources who met with the head of a China only agency at a social gathering recently was told that he could probably expect his December LID referral to happen around MAY 2007!
He would probably travel June-July.
We could have had (almost) three babies in the time between our LID of April 2006 and when we finally get our referral which now looks like sometime in 2008!
September 26th, 2006 at 12:24 pm
RQ,
I think you addressed me but meant to address “threebluesteps” instead. They posted right before I did and I guess you read their post and than saw my name, LOL. You may want to repost to them just in case they are only looking for their name and not reading all the posts!!
thanks,
Kathy
September 26th, 2006 at 12:29 pm
Thanks, RQ. It’s good to know you’ll finally be able to vote in your own poll.
I’m curious because, unfortunately, your analysis matched mine. The big difference is you have future data and mine was based on past performance. I blogged just yesterday that after seeing this batch, I was personally expecting October to include the middle of August with the rest of August and early September in November.
If September is as light as we’ve heard, I think they can finish it in December instead of stretching it out another month. I think we have a real good shot of a January referral with our 10/13 LID, but more than likely, we’ll get a February referral. December is fading fast, though there is still the slightest chance if they can do all of September in November. If it’s a light enough month, maybe they can.
It is my understanding that there were virtually no LIDS the first week of October. I know there are a few, but I’ve heard they’re very limited. This means the first week of October referrals would actually go to the 13th or 14th. I can’t wait until we get the poll going for October. I think it will be very interesting to see if these rumors were true.
I try to be pragmatic, but the optimism hasn’t quite faded away.
September 26th, 2006 at 12:34 pm
Here’s what’s confusing to me — if indeed the wait is to stabilize as the CCAA says (and who know’s if that will happen), at some point don’t they have to start referring a full month of LIDs?
If they continue to refer only partial months, then the wait will continue to lengthen exponentially.
Every month they get more and more behind. They are already at 14+ months. It would send such a positive message if they could actually get through an entire month.
Wishful thinking.
Tonda
LID 3-24
September 26th, 2006 at 12:42 pm
This scenario rapidly takes us to the 18month and beyond mark. Are we thinking the stabilization was wishful thinking? What about the rumor that said CCAA was going to refer 15 days — didn’t it say something about 15 days in the next batch (meaning October?). Maybe they are trying to get through the big 8/24, then do the rest of August and most of Sept in November. That would help stabilize. But I guess there is no reason to believe this huh?
Well, at least we have cute pictures to look at while we wallow.
:( wfp
September 26th, 2006 at 12:51 pm
Yep, the way I figure it-if this keeps up I can expect an August ‘07 referral for my LID of 11/30/05.
They will have to do some major big months for me to get the Spring referral I had actually allowed myself to believe.
Every month waiting for it to be “the month” the CCAA will actually stabalize the wait is just pure fantasy at this point.
I have to say I was really truly hopeful this would be the month….Fatal flaw-I allowed myself to get optomistic. Not anymore, I’m telling people fall of “07.
Sorry to be in such a pissy mood-but thanks for letting me get it off my chest.
September 26th, 2006 at 12:51 pm
Did the CCAA really say the referral time would “stabilize?” Did they really say they wanted to keep the wait at 12-14 months? If so, is anybody else’s intelligence feeling insulted by this since it’s obviously not what’s occurring?
September 26th, 2006 at 12:56 pm
I did my own projections yesterday based on the CCAA continuing an 18 day referral rate each month and at that rate my referral for 12/14/05 wouldn’t come until May.. in fact at that rate we would just miss the cut off by one day…my biggest fear. So if they continue at 18 days per month dh and I will wait 17 months – YIKES!!! I’m just hoping that some months they can refer more days and maybe make up the time a little somehow. I would love to see things stabalize at 14-15 months but I just don’t see how it’s possible if we don’t get a big batch soon. Believe me I’m thrilled that they did 18 days instead of 9 like last month.. but we were really hoping they would get further into August. I also know that we can’t just count the number of days referred but have to figure out how that works with the number of dossiers logged in… hence the reason that I am always on this site checking out RQ’s projections. Take care everyone!!
September 26th, 2006 at 12:57 pm
I am going to ask a silly question. Looking at the number of days included in each referral batch: in September last year they matched 28days then October it was only 19days and it just went downhill from there. The low peak was six months later when they did 5days. It seems like a very sudden, long term drop that cannot be fully explained by Hunan or by “big monthsâ€.
Is there any possibility that with CCAA year-end coming maybe they will review the last year and discover there are more children left available than they thought? Recognizing that Hunan was part of the issue, hopefully resolved now.
Maybe this is the stabilization the agencies are talking about, maybe it has taken the CCAA a year to get the wait to 14months and now they will stabilize?
This is probably just me begging I won’t have to wait two years. Is this at all possible?
Beth
LID 4/19/06
September 26th, 2006 at 1:06 pm
HoosierBaby,
We have the same LID and I was wondering the same about relatively no LIDs the first week of October. I think the earliest I have seen is the 10th. Does anyone have one earlier than that? I have also been told that September is really light, but seem to be seeing more and more Sept. LIDs. (Frustrating b/c we were DTC on 9/1/05.) I am very anxious for the new poll as well, and will be very excited to finally see some numbers for Sept./Oct. BTW…where are you in Indiana? I was born and raised there! :-)
September 26th, 2006 at 1:13 pm
Has anyone taken into account the fact that the CCAA “year’ appears to me to run 12/1-11/30? Can this be a one-year reduction by CCAA mandate about to change when we get closer to 12/1?
I asked my agency CCAA contact and she said no. The qty of dossiers is determined by the orphanage, and they “report” to the provincial agency for approval of their submissions. My mind still says there are policy signals that can be sent even with no official “guidelines”. If they are not putting a pause on dossier submissions and they have 20,000 logged in, the only logical conclusion I can reach is that the supply will be increased at some point. Of course each month I *think* that we have reached that point!
WIll Oct 26th be in the next daily poll?
PJ LID 10/26
September 26th, 2006 at 1:15 pm
One other factor. Does the fact that orphanages have to pay the CCAA to register files have anything to do with it? Did they raise their “fee”? Did the provincial share of the “fee” received increase (lowering incentives to prepare paperwork in either case).
September 26th, 2006 at 1:15 pm
Hi Kristinian,
I’ve seen one or two LIDs for 10/7, but nothing before. Doesn’t mean there aren’t any. I just haven’t seen any. Someone in my travel group has a better handle on this issue. I believe she said she had also seen one for 10/6.
Last October was very odd as we saw people who were DTC in late August/September end up with October LIDs. Many of whom were after ours when we were DTC later. I remember someone having the theory that the dossiers were just stacked up and then many ended up getting logged in in reverse order as they worked their way down.
You and I are perfect examples of this as you state your DTC was 9/1. Don’t hate me, but our DTC was 10/7. It’s totally unfair to you that we have the same LID.
September 26th, 2006 at 1:30 pm
HoosierBaby,
I am frustrated with the six weeks between DTC and LID, but don’t begrudge anyone who didn’t have to wait as long. In fact, it could be worse. There is a family in our travel group who was DTC 7/21/05 and LID 10/13. Ouch! I am just happy that we are getting closer and that we are the first half of what seems to be a huge month.
I think that the National Day holiday in China last year was Oct. 1-5 (Anyone know for sure???) If that is true, then I would think that the 6th would be the earliest LID; good news for us b/c we just skipped five whole days!
I think that it is possible for CCAA to finish Sept. in November and get us in December. Maybe I am smoking something funny, but I gotta believe that we will be in China this winter and not later!
September 26th, 2006 at 2:10 pm
RQ – I apologize in advance because I’m sure this question has been asked before…
With the October holidays coming, I would assume that this could potentially slow down referrals? What did October ‘05 look like for referrals?…or maybe at this point that is truly in the past and not an indicator at present… Perhaps the only real basis is your prediction around the last 3 months…
As a part of the big 24AUG LID, I’m gonna be a crazy Mom2Be be by the end of October. I do so hope that we make it in October… I have a buddy with a 30AUG LID who hopes to make it in November.
Here’s hoping!
September 26th, 2006 at 2:14 pm
The number of matches they do is dependent upon how many paper ready babies they have paperwork for.
If the holiday has any affect at all then it will be to delay referrals by a week, not to make it a smaller batch.
Holiday’s usually don’t cause that much of a delay.
September 26th, 2006 at 6:25 pm
I’m just hoping hoping hoping that some miracle happens and August 31st makes the next batch…ok…I’m selfish.
lid 8/31/05 :)
September 26th, 2006 at 6:44 pm
I really don’t think that the National Holiday/ Trade Show has much influence.. These folks usually don’t get time off except at Nat’l holidays. Keep in mind the Trade Show is in South China and the CCAA is in Beijing…
We are also part of the group that was LID long after being DTC. It was actually a little over a month for us. It is very frustrating to think that we should have been LID in Sept, but, hey, what can ya do??? :-) I don’t know about a lot of LIDs before 10/10, but ya never know what RQ will get on a poll! ;-)
I hope that the next set of referrals is a bit larger, but I am not holding my breath at this point.
LID 10/10