Comments on: End of September Analysis http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/ Join the Rumor Queen as she looks for the latest rumors and then analyzes them, trying to figure out what the CCAA will do next. Tue, 15 May 2012 15:33:43 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.4 By: mcginnisc http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-15190 mcginnisc Tue, 26 Sep 2006 22:44:12 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/#comment-15190 I really don't think that the National Holiday/ Trade Show has much influence.. These folks usually don't get time off except at Nat'l holidays. Keep in mind the Trade Show is in South China and the CCAA is in Beijing... We are also part of the group that was LID long after being DTC. It was actually a little over a month for us. It is very frustrating to think that we should have been LID in Sept, but, hey, what can ya do??? :-) I don't know about a lot of LIDs before 10/10, but ya never know what RQ will get on a poll! ;-) I hope that the next set of referrals is a bit larger, but I am not holding my breath at this point. LID 10/10 I really don’t think that the National Holiday/ Trade Show has much influence.. These folks usually don’t get time off except at Nat’l holidays. Keep in mind the Trade Show is in South China and the CCAA is in Beijing…

We are also part of the group that was LID long after being DTC. It was actually a little over a month for us. It is very frustrating to think that we should have been LID in Sept, but, hey, what can ya do??? :-) I don’t know about a lot of LIDs before 10/10, but ya never know what RQ will get on a poll! ;-)

I hope that the next set of referrals is a bit larger, but I am not holding my breath at this point.

LID 10/10

]]> By: babyelaine06 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-15188 babyelaine06 Tue, 26 Sep 2006 22:25:06 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/#comment-15188 I'm just hoping hoping hoping that some miracle happens and August 31st makes the next batch...ok...I'm selfish. lid 8/31/05 :) I’m just hoping hoping hoping that some miracle happens and August 31st makes the next batch…ok…I’m selfish.
lid 8/31/05 :)

]]> By: RumorQueen http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-15152 RumorQueen Tue, 26 Sep 2006 18:14:58 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/#comment-15152 The number of matches they do is dependent upon how many paper ready babies they have paperwork for. If the holiday has any affect at all then it will be to delay referrals by a week, not to make it a smaller batch. Holiday's usually don't cause that much of a delay. The number of matches they do is dependent upon how many paper ready babies they have paperwork for.

If the holiday has any affect at all then it will be to delay referrals by a week, not to make it a smaller batch.

Holiday’s usually don’t cause that much of a delay.

]]> By: EJsMom2Be http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-15150 EJsMom2Be Tue, 26 Sep 2006 18:10:51 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/#comment-15150 RQ - I apologize in advance because I'm sure this question has been asked before... With the October holidays coming, I would assume that this could potentially slow down referrals? What did October '05 look like for referrals?...or maybe at this point that is truly in the past and not an indicator at present... Perhaps the only real basis is your prediction around the last 3 months... As a part of the big 24AUG LID, I'm gonna be a crazy Mom2Be be by the end of October. I do so hope that we make it in October... I have a buddy with a 30AUG LID who hopes to make it in November. Here's hoping! RQ – I apologize in advance because I’m sure this question has been asked before…

With the October holidays coming, I would assume that this could potentially slow down referrals? What did October ’05 look like for referrals?…or maybe at this point that is truly in the past and not an indicator at present… Perhaps the only real basis is your prediction around the last 3 months…

As a part of the big 24AUG LID, I’m gonna be a crazy Mom2Be be by the end of October. I do so hope that we make it in October… I have a buddy with a 30AUG LID who hopes to make it in November.

Here’s hoping!

]]> By: kristinian http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-15134 kristinian Tue, 26 Sep 2006 17:30:36 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/#comment-15134 HoosierBaby, I am frustrated with the six weeks between DTC and LID, but don't begrudge anyone who didn't have to wait as long. In fact, it could be worse. There is a family in our travel group who was DTC 7/21/05 and LID 10/13. Ouch! I am just happy that we are getting closer and that we are the first half of what seems to be a huge month. I think that the National Day holiday in China last year was Oct. 1-5 (Anyone know for sure???) If that is true, then I would think that the 6th would be the earliest LID; good news for us b/c we just skipped five whole days! I think that it is possible for CCAA to finish Sept. in November and get us in December. Maybe I am smoking something funny, but I gotta believe that we will be in China this winter and not later! HoosierBaby,
I am frustrated with the six weeks between DTC and LID, but don’t begrudge anyone who didn’t have to wait as long. In fact, it could be worse. There is a family in our travel group who was DTC 7/21/05 and LID 10/13. Ouch! I am just happy that we are getting closer and that we are the first half of what seems to be a huge month.

I think that the National Day holiday in China last year was Oct. 1-5 (Anyone know for sure???) If that is true, then I would think that the 6th would be the earliest LID; good news for us b/c we just skipped five whole days!

I think that it is possible for CCAA to finish Sept. in November and get us in December. Maybe I am smoking something funny, but I gotta believe that we will be in China this winter and not later!

]]> By: HoosierBaby http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-15130 HoosierBaby Tue, 26 Sep 2006 17:15:24 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/#comment-15130 Hi Kristinian, I've seen one or two LIDs for 10/7, but nothing before. Doesn't mean there aren't any. I just haven't seen any. Someone in my travel group has a better handle on this issue. I believe she said she had also seen one for 10/6. Last October was very odd as we saw people who were DTC in late August/September end up with October LIDs. Many of whom were after ours when we were DTC later. I remember someone having the theory that the dossiers were just stacked up and then many ended up getting logged in in reverse order as they worked their way down. You and I are perfect examples of this as you state your DTC was 9/1. Don't hate me, but our DTC was 10/7. It's totally unfair to you that we have the same LID. Hi Kristinian,

I’ve seen one or two LIDs for 10/7, but nothing before. Doesn’t mean there aren’t any. I just haven’t seen any. Someone in my travel group has a better handle on this issue. I believe she said she had also seen one for 10/6.

Last October was very odd as we saw people who were DTC in late August/September end up with October LIDs. Many of whom were after ours when we were DTC later. I remember someone having the theory that the dossiers were just stacked up and then many ended up getting logged in in reverse order as they worked their way down.

You and I are perfect examples of this as you state your DTC was 9/1. Don’t hate me, but our DTC was 10/7. It’s totally unfair to you that we have the same LID.

]]> By: PJ Mama http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-15129 PJ Mama Tue, 26 Sep 2006 17:15:21 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/#comment-15129 One other factor. Does the fact that orphanages have to pay the CCAA to register files have anything to do with it? Did they raise their "fee"? Did the provincial share of the "fee" received increase (lowering incentives to prepare paperwork in either case). One other factor. Does the fact that orphanages have to pay the CCAA to register files have anything to do with it? Did they raise their “fee”? Did the provincial share of the “fee” received increase (lowering incentives to prepare paperwork in either case).

]]> By: PJ Mama http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-15128 PJ Mama Tue, 26 Sep 2006 17:13:23 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/#comment-15128 Has anyone taken into account the fact that the CCAA "year' appears to me to run 12/1-11/30? Can this be a one-year reduction by CCAA mandate about to change when we get closer to 12/1? I asked my agency CCAA contact and she said no. The qty of dossiers is determined by the orphanage, and they "report" to the provincial agency for approval of their submissions. My mind still says there are policy signals that can be sent even with no official "guidelines". If they are not putting a pause on dossier submissions and they have 20,000 logged in, the only logical conclusion I can reach is that the supply will be increased at some point. Of course each month I *think* that we have reached that point! WIll Oct 26th be in the next daily poll? PJ LID 10/26 Has anyone taken into account the fact that the CCAA “year’ appears to me to run 12/1-11/30? Can this be a one-year reduction by CCAA mandate about to change when we get closer to 12/1?

I asked my agency CCAA contact and she said no. The qty of dossiers is determined by the orphanage, and they “report” to the provincial agency for approval of their submissions. My mind still says there are policy signals that can be sent even with no official “guidelines”. If they are not putting a pause on dossier submissions and they have 20,000 logged in, the only logical conclusion I can reach is that the supply will be increased at some point. Of course each month I *think* that we have reached that point!

WIll Oct 26th be in the next daily poll?

PJ LID 10/26

]]> By: kristinian http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-15127 kristinian Tue, 26 Sep 2006 17:06:21 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/#comment-15127 HoosierBaby, We have the same LID and I was wondering the same about relatively no LIDs the first week of October. I think the earliest I have seen is the 10th. Does anyone have one earlier than that? I have also been told that September is really light, but seem to be seeing more and more Sept. LIDs. (Frustrating b/c we were DTC on 9/1/05.) I am very anxious for the new poll as well, and will be very excited to finally see some numbers for Sept./Oct. BTW...where are you in Indiana? I was born and raised there! :-) HoosierBaby,
We have the same LID and I was wondering the same about relatively no LIDs the first week of October. I think the earliest I have seen is the 10th. Does anyone have one earlier than that? I have also been told that September is really light, but seem to be seeing more and more Sept. LIDs. (Frustrating b/c we were DTC on 9/1/05.) I am very anxious for the new poll as well, and will be very excited to finally see some numbers for Sept./Oct. BTW…where are you in Indiana? I was born and raised there! :-)

]]> By: jj2china http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-15126 jj2china Tue, 26 Sep 2006 16:57:23 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/26/end-of-september-analysis/#comment-15126 I am going to ask a silly question. Looking at the number of days included in each referral batch: in September last year they matched 28days then October it was only 19days and it just went downhill from there. The low peak was six months later when they did 5days. It seems like a very sudden, long term drop that cannot be fully explained by Hunan or by “big months”. Is there any possibility that with CCAA year-end coming maybe they will review the last year and discover there are more children left available than they thought? Recognizing that Hunan was part of the issue, hopefully resolved now. Maybe this is the stabilization the agencies are talking about, maybe it has taken the CCAA a year to get the wait to 14months and now they will stabilize? This is probably just me begging I won’t have to wait two years. Is this at all possible? Beth LID 4/19/06 I am going to ask a silly question. Looking at the number of days included in each referral batch: in September last year they matched 28days then October it was only 19days and it just went downhill from there. The low peak was six months later when they did 5days. It seems like a very sudden, long term drop that cannot be fully explained by Hunan or by “big months”.

Is there any possibility that with CCAA year-end coming maybe they will review the last year and discover there are more children left available than they thought? Recognizing that Hunan was part of the issue, hopefully resolved now.

Maybe this is the stabilization the agencies are talking about, maybe it has taken the CCAA a year to get the wait to 14months and now they will stabilize?

This is probably just me begging I won’t have to wait two years. Is this at all possible?

Beth
LID 4/19/06

]]>