A nice visual
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A lot of people seem to still not understand that I use number of matches made per month and not number of days referred in a month when I do an analysis.
This visual has worked well to explain this in the past, and this looks like the last I’ll be able to pull this particular one out. This shows clearer than anything else can that even though they referred a lot of days this time, the number of families matched did not really go up. In case you missed it, my most recent analysis is here. And if the CCAA stays fairly consistent (as they have for three months now) then this analysis should be either correct or very close. However, if the speed up rumors are correct then I could be way off. I hope this happens. But we’ve had so many “this is the month” rumors and theories, I just can’t bring myself to believe it this month. Which might mean it’s finally the month for it to happen. Remember what happened when I finally decided to start ignoring the “move” rumors? They moved. |
September 27th, 2006 at 1:02 pm
Thanks for this RQ! I have run into the same kind of thinking from others about how 18 days is such an improvement and have had to explain to interested family and DH that it isn’t really an improvement. LIDs per month are not as important as the number of referrals per month if looking for a speed up or slow down. That’s why your polls are so helpful. I just wish we had comparable data available for LIDs and referral from 2004 on, then we’d have a lot more insight into the overall trend of the CCAA.
Question for all of you with bigger or more informative agencies–what are your referral numbers for these last months vs 2005 or even 2004 if available?
RQ is there some way you could have people contact you privately giving this info and you could put it into some kind of chart? The big question to me is how many fewer referrals is the CCAA actually doing this year compared to past years. It seems this info would answer some of those questions. Not sure if this possible or not. I certainly couldn’t offer any help, my agency won’t even tell us how many dossiers they send on any given date.
September 27th, 2006 at 1:32 pm
Someone with my agency (he does the predictions & has a database) has stated there has been a pattern with the slow down that he just put together. I’ll be emailing him to see if he has, indeed, cracked the code. His post to the agency yahoo group seemed to indicate there should, logically, be a speed up. I’ll let you know what, if anything, I find out from him.
September 27th, 2006 at 1:38 pm
So…..your data looks to have a pattern but how do other international adoptions from, say, Europe or other countries or world areas affect us in the U.S.? From your analysis, do you think they have a set amount of adoptions per month (overall) and 60% goes to US, 30% to Asia and 10% to Europe for instance? Do you think higher LID’s from one geographic area for one month affects the other areas or are they kind of independent of each other? Also…..your polls reflect anyone who is logging in their date–right? From any country?
September 27th, 2006 at 1:42 pm
We have a worldwide audience, so the polls should reflect this.
I’m not sure it matters if one country gets more or less than another in any given month.
September 27th, 2006 at 2:06 pm
Thanks RQ - I love playing around with the numbers on all the polls, even if I don’t always like the results!
My best guesses, based on all the polling data, for the next four batches are: Aug 24, Sep 2, Sep 20, Oct 9
Unless things speed up of course!!! Or slow down!!!
September 27th, 2006 at 2:28 pm
There is a web site Ralph Stirling http://people.wwc.edu/staff/stirra/china/stats/
He compiles stats on china referrals and has been doing it for years. Of course like a lot of web sites this only a small sample.
I’m not sure RQ feelings on his site or if it’s been mentioned before. So, sorry in advance if there is something I don’t know.
Hope
September 27th, 2006 at 2:37 pm
Thanks RQ,
I was just adding the number of day not the number of referrals. I think I am just trying to manipulate the numbers for a December referral. At this point, I cant’ bring myself to accept it will happen though. I don’t want to have my hopes dashed AGAIN.
LID 9/29
September 27th, 2006 at 2:37 pm
Ralph Stirling has excellent stats that go a long way back. I have his site listed on my FAQ page.
The thing is, those stats are historic, after the fact. And I want to be able to predict the future. So I put up polls to try to get a handle on the future.
September 27th, 2006 at 3:30 pm
RQ –
Were the numbers you have listing gathered at the same time? If so, I would expect the numbers to be less accurate the farther out the LID.
It is hard to tell whether this whole series of events is random or predictable.
Just wondering…
K.
September 27th, 2006 at 3:37 pm
At one point I did some figuring that told me that numbers over a two month period were pretty statistically accurate. Maybe a percent or two off.
Numbers four months out were likely to be about 5% less than actual (well, actual based on the first month, not on actual).
Numbers in a single poll are always gathered at the same time. On the poll results page I always list when that poll closed.
September 27th, 2006 at 4:36 pm
Woopig,
I’ll be anxiously awaiting an update about this. Please, please keep us posted. Any insite he might have or what his train of thought is would be very interesting to say the least.
Thanks!
K
LID 6/6/06
September 27th, 2006 at 6:07 pm
Is this based off a guestimate of 800 matches made per month and that your people in the RQ survey are 25% of the total adopting?
September 27th, 2006 at 6:31 pm
I just don’t want to believe it. My daughter has started crying about her sister. I keep telling her she isn’t ready yet, and that I waited a long time for her too. She just can’t grasp time well enough to give her anything that can comfort her much.
Any ideas for an activity we can do so that we make this time enjoyable as it relates to the wait? For me this is learning more Chinese and planning where we will sightsee when we get there. Shopping for clothes for the baby fun too and is hard not to do, but I am restraining myself more than I thought possible! (it already is a lovely life except for this expectation hanging out there).
LID OCT 26
September 27th, 2006 at 7:00 pm
PJ Mama - How old is your daughter?
September 27th, 2006 at 7:09 pm
I am LID 11/9/05. When my wife and I started the process our large China only agency was recieving about 75 to 125 referrals a month. Lately they have only been getting about 35 to 50. So there is a huge drop in the amount they are sending each month. Why, I guess we can pick and one of the theorys we have mentioned before.
September 27th, 2006 at 7:46 pm
PJ Mama
Maybe your daughter can make a scrapbook that she can share with her sister when she is older. Sort of a pictoral journal of her wait for her Mei Mei. Just a thought.
Anne
September 27th, 2006 at 9:15 pm
I’m gonna take a shot in the dark here and go ahead and place my guess for the next match. When it’ll be, I have no clue. But… I’m thinking they will match Aug 10 - Aug 26. What do y’all think??
His,
Mrs. U
http://www.makingahouseahome.blogspot.com
September 27th, 2006 at 9:35 pm
Hi RQ,
Still getting to know your site. Can you point me in the direction of a chart that shows the number of LIDs per month for months beyond September? Also are these numbers reflecting people who have participated in the polls on this site only or is there some source that shows the numbers of all dossiers logged in on a month by month basis?
September 27th, 2006 at 9:53 pm
PJ mama; This is our #2 and our dd (3.5yrs old) is also tired of waiting for her mei mei. We created monthly calendars of events (vacation, bdays, holidays, made up days!) and she marks off each day. She seems content with being able to actually reach a date that we can celebrate or do something special. We have also stopped talking so much about her sister coming (in her presence). She has been much better. Hope this helps, you are not alone!
LID 12/5
September 27th, 2006 at 10:04 pm
Ups,
I am with you. Based on numbers of referrals per group 8/9 to 8/26 seems about right. I of course would be extra happy if we made it all the way to 26th as that is my LID.
As always, trying to be patient.
Had a really bad day at work, but looked out the window and there was a ladybug crawling up towards me. At least that made me smile.
Happy waiting.
September 28th, 2006 at 1:18 am
papa2b,
I’m happy to hear that your agency has been sending a lot less dossiers over - maybe that will make things stabilize a bit come 2006 dossiers. Question, and I’m probably just confused, but becaue your agency is only receiving 35 - 50 referrals a month, is that just because the CCAA is moving slow or is it because your agency is actually sending less? Or do you mean dossiers - they are receiving fewer completed dossiers to send over to China? Does my question make sense?
Thanks!
K
LID 6/6/06
P.S. I’d love to trade LID’s with you - but I guess you wouldn’t want to do that now, would you? :-)
September 28th, 2006 at 6:43 am
ADE… the power of a little bitty ladybug, huh? :)
His,
Mrs. U
http://www.makingahouseahome.blogspot.com
September 28th, 2006 at 7:57 am
Mrs. U, yup, I take the smiles where I can, another thing that makes me smile is my lillies and daffodils. I was reading your blog, but not a member so posting this link here.
http://www.floridata.com/ref/l/lyco_rad.cfm
I also have the yellow ones.
Happy Day.
S
September 28th, 2006 at 11:28 am
Thank you everyone for the advice.
My daughter is 5 3/4 and part of the problem is that she has told everyone at school about our baby - for those of you who get a lot of “have you heard anything yet?” I think she is getting the same!
People may even begin to question her truthfulness after a bit… and mine too.
I do try to mention it infrequently, and we are focused on a lot of fun family visits this fall.
Anne, I like the scrapbook idea too.
best wishes for this the “good week” when we get to ooh and aah over the new babies, imagining for a moment what it would (will!) be like when it is our turn.
LID 10/26 (soon to be known as 10/26/05!)