Preliminary Poll Results
If your LID is between August 10, 2005 and October 28, 2005 and you haven’t yet voted your LID in our latest poll then please do.
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We now have enough votes to start really looking at how it is shaping up.
I’ve already predicted October and November cutoffs here, I think I can now predict (assuming those months stay on target) that the December cutoff will probably be September 28th. For those who are new to the site, please read through the FAQ’s before you start asking too many questions. My predictions are based on the CCAA continuing to do about the same number of matches per month as they have been doing. Which may or may not happen. Some agencies think we are about to see things speed up, some agencies predict more of the same for a long time to come. The CCAA told an agency a couple of weeks ago that things should stay in the 14 month range or just a little higher, but then told another agency in another country this week that the wait will reach 24 months. |
So, as always, we wait to see what happens.
October 1st, 2006 at 4:55 pm
Sorry, but i can’t help but say “Booo!” to the prediction of Dec’s cutoff being Sept.28!! with a lid of 9/29 i was hoping to see that thrown in … but i do see how large it is now! it’s ginormous!!!! so it certainly wouldn’t surprise me…. hopefully the ccaa will amaze and astound us and we will be in Nov! :-)
October 1st, 2006 at 6:12 pm
Hi jmlance
Why wait untill november…….october works for me :-)
LID 08-24-05
October 1st, 2006 at 6:46 pm
Member of the 8-24-05 (monster) LID club here.
VERY nervous and wondering if I’ll be “in” in October.
October 1st, 2006 at 7:08 pm
i definitely think them getting through 8/24 is doable based on past numbers…but then again we’ve been wrong before.
and jmlance, don’t let that missing the cut-off by one day possibility worry you too much. if it just so happens to turn out that way…you’ll get over the shock and disappointment soon enough and find out how much more enjoyable and relaxing knowing for sure without a doubt you’re next is…even with the having to wait about 4 weeks longer. :)
8.10.05 LID
October 1st, 2006 at 7:16 pm
hey tg..glad to hear you are relaxed about it all now..we are very excited that the group we would have been in is about to travel…we are a bit sad we aren’t going to share the experience but excited to live it vicariously through them.
October 1st, 2006 at 7:20 pm
Yes Photohappy, i am with you…..i hope so too.
I think it is nice we can wait together though.
One month waiting more is unthinkable for me.
I want to go to China this year….after the referrals get in Holland, we still have to wait two weeks more for translation, before we will get the call. (so that will be the second week in november) After that we will have to wait 6 till 8 weeks before we can go to China.
So you see that we are running out of time for this year.
But perhaps when the TA don’t take too long, we can travel before Christmas. (you must never stop dreaming)
So the november scenario, is someting i wish not to think about yet.
(the call in december,travel in februari with the Chinese newyear(wich is not possible)….again a delay!!!)
So october it is….november can not be an option:-(
LID 08-24-05
October 1st, 2006 at 7:43 pm
Hi all, and especially fellow 8-24ers,
I do worry about Chinese New Year if we miss this cut off. I am also wondering what to do about my renewal of paperwork — 797 expires 1/15, which I prob will make with an Oct referral, but not with Nov. I have started the process but I haven’t sent in the fee to the govt. Should I?????? Don’t know what to do really. I hate the thought of “throwing away” that money!
And, I really think they will include 8/24 this month, and I also think December will include 9/29. Just my thought.
We’ll see…..
:) wfp (trying to wait patiently…)
October 1st, 2006 at 8:06 pm
Hi waitingforpink,
About the 797 i can not tell you anything…i do not know this paper.
I hope you are right about december.
Every month to be matched, takes three full month at least.(but perhaps it will be ok, after all, september seems to be a small month.)
October 1st, 2006 at 9:07 pm
RQ - based on your December projection - it looks like you are also hoping for 8/24 to be included this round (boy, I hope you are right)!!! If they don’t - it looks like Sept 13 or 14 might be the December cut off. Waitingforpink - I don’t know what to tell you. I don’t worry about Chinese New Year (since it is in mid-February next year) but I do think 1/15 would cut it close (that is the date I left for China with a November referral my first time aorund). I guess it would depend on how fast your state USCIS office is at turning around the renewal paperwork.
October 1st, 2006 at 9:09 pm
I’m a 9/29′er too, and the biggest problem between getting a referral in December vs January is that dang I171H! If we make December, we won’t have to re-do. January we will.
October 1st, 2006 at 10:18 pm
We are lid 8/19 - do we really dare to hope to be included this month????? I’ve stayed away from RQ a week, just needed time to focus on other stuff, but discovered that being too busy is exhausting, and I am still thinking all the same adoption stuff anyway, so I am back ;-)
October 1st, 2006 at 10:59 pm
waitingfor2, i’m SO glad you mentioned the Jan. travel dates from when you had a Nov. referral. Our 171 expires on 2/3/07 and we are hopeful as can be for a Nov. referral.. even with a Dec.referral we want to go and be back before 2/3/07! actually, we NEED a Nov. referral so we don’t have to redo that nasty little form!!! urgh!!! my blood boils just thinking about it… anyhoo… it seems to me the ccaa sorta waited and logged in most everyone on 9/29 for some strange reason. i guess that’s why i have high hopes that they will zoom thru Sept, maybe the entire month in a month!! wouldn’t that be amazing????? yes indeed…. that is going to be a HUGE travel group! if in fact we get a Dec. referral, anyone know if that will cause us to travel after the CNY? between that and the Oct. fair, you really have to be concerned about dates of referral and travel dates.
and tgthread…. i totally understand the whole knowing you are next will be a peaceful feeling…. although, i have a friend here that was going to be next as well, and when she got a call, it was to inform her that they didn’t make the batch, her hubby had to have a HIV test redone and so they had to wait for the next referral batch. talk about disappointing… not that i’m trying to discourage you or make you worry, but that was also when the wait was only 6 months, so waiting one more month was earthshattering yet they did it and now their little girl is 2.5 - and they are sooooooooooo thankful they had to wait to get her!
October 1st, 2006 at 11:21 pm
9/29 er here. (another 9/29 er I should say) Really hoping for referral and back before the big expiration, but CNY has me very nervous. I can’t believe I am even concerned, b/c when we got our 171 exp. date, I NEVER thought it was going to become an issue. Someone set me straight-I know that govt. offices are closed for about a week there during CNY so does that mean all travel is suspended if you will be there the week they are closed?
Meg
October 2nd, 2006 at 1:11 am
mclark35(Meg) - during CNY and the other ‘golden week’ holidays (1 May and 1 October) all government offices are closed for approximately a week, including the provincial registration offices that process the adoptions and the passport offices that will issue your child with her/his passport. Also it is harder to secure flights etc because everyone is going home (CNY or Spring Festival as the Chinese refer to it is a time to return home). Travel isn’t officially suspended but then a lot of agencies don’t send people because of the availability issue - however you could feasibly travel at the end of the golden week in anticiption of adoption occuring immediately after Chinese New Year.
fu_fairy
October 2nd, 2006 at 7:58 am
well, the flip side of just missing this last group was that we’re having to re-do our I-171H…
but you take the bad with the good i suppose.
in the end it doesn’t matter…it is all worth the wait (and extra monies, frustrations, etc)
:)
October 2nd, 2006 at 8:52 am
As a fellow 09/29er, can I just say….this sux!! I’ll definately need to re-do the I171H now. I never knew that 09/29 was such a large group. What also irritates me is that I turned my dossier in to my large, China-only agency on August 8th, and yet my LID wasn’t until 09/29?
This day can only get better from here…. :(
October 2nd, 2006 at 9:42 am
Hey, what about the fact that right around CNY there are usually TWO batches of referrals?
October 2nd, 2006 at 10:08 am
There are 2 batches around CNY? reallllllly???? i don’t recall that… is it last of Jan and mid-Feb?
sophie_mom, we were DTC 8/24 and were logged in 9/29 as well. that’s what i mean, it seems as though they just waited to log in an X amount of dossiers and decided 9/29 would be the day to do it. i can’t imagine what that means, (my mind can think of all sorts of scenarios though) but regardless we may be china’s largest traveling group EVER!!!!
October 2nd, 2006 at 10:30 am
We were DTC 9/7 and LID 10/10 so I understand the frustration perfectly!!! There were a ton of people that got logged in a month after they were DTC.. The slowdown began in August and just kept on going… Grrrrr. :-x
By the way, this past year they sent out 2 sets of referrals in January. One the first week and then one on the 25th of the month. CNY was on the 29th of January in 06′. I hope this helps you!!
Let’s hope that CCAA gets hopping so that none of you before me gets hurt by the holidays!!!
Claire LID 10/10/05 ( man, this stinks.. I have to add the year now..)
October 2nd, 2006 at 10:32 am
Have you done any research on the relationship between how long it takes a month to get out of the REVIEW ROOM and how long it takes for the CCAA to process that month’s referrals/matches?
October 2nd, 2006 at 11:29 am
CNY this year is Feb 18th…year of the pig…so I would venture to guess we’d get referrals late Jan. and then early Feb and then late Feb…Or, as in years past, early Jan and then Late Jan as well…
aw heck! who knows! anything is possible!
October 2nd, 2006 at 2:45 pm
Totally…. who knows…. maybe a ccaa official will show up at our front porch, too, with referral in hand! HA
October 2nd, 2006 at 7:46 pm
With a log in date of 8/31/06 we are pretty sure now we will have to update the I171H. Our agency told us that if we make it back from China by Dec 21st we won’t have to…but that isn’t looking likely. Anybody know what the paper update entails?
October 2nd, 2006 at 9:33 pm
We have a LID of 9/29 with an expiration on the 171 on 2/14. Our adoption agency and our social worker are recommending that we wait until just after Christmas, and if we don’t look to have a referral by then, then we should go ahead and update right after that. Any thoughts?
Meg
October 2nd, 2006 at 11:21 pm
Please don’t get your hopes up - the CCAA doesn’t do a ‘bonus’ month of referrals for CNY - they usually refer 12 batches a year - RQ has done some stats on the average wait between batches; CCAA just sometimes alters the timing of the release to ‘account’ for CNY.
CNY is a lunar festival so its date falls on different part of the Western calendar each year (it can fall anywhere from end of Jan into February).
I think where some of the confusion may have arisen is that on some occasions the ‘end of December’ referrals have only been received by the agencies at the beginning of January and then the end of January referrals have come out a little early because of an early CNY and been received in January also - and people then think great 2 referrals in January.
fu_fairy
October 3rd, 2006 at 6:09 am
fu_fairy is right, there isn’t an “extra” referral batch for CNY, but sometimes (usually) the CCAA pushes to get a batch out before they leave for CNY, meaning one batch comes a bit earlier.
In years past the CCAA seemed to be trying to get referrals out before Christmas, but they didn’t do that last year.
In many years I’ve seen referrals for December/January/February be a good bit off of what you’d expect them to be as they work around holidays. However, it’s not that they do an extra batch, just that one batch may be quick and another take a bit longer.
October 3rd, 2006 at 11:36 am
I’m looking at the new poll results. It still looks excellent for a referral with an 8-19 LID. Even if the CCAA divides the rest of the month into 3 equal parts we should still get a referral. Does any one know what’s up with the 24th? Have we seen a day that has such a huge numbe?. It looks like during that time the CCAA may only get through a few days. I’ve finally allowed myself to get excited about this adoption. I’ve felt numb about the whole thing sence last year.
October 3rd, 2006 at 11:54 am
I looked at the past polls and it doesn’t look like there has been a single day as high as 8-24 is. I still wonder what happened that day.
October 3rd, 2006 at 10:45 pm
RQ
I was running some numbers as to how many LID’s per batch since the 6/7-6/15 batch and the number of LID’s referred each batch is dropping steadily since the 6/16-6/28 batch. Am I correct? This does NOT seem like a good sign for a speed up. Any thoughts on this?
Meg
LID 9/29