Some calculations
I’ve been seeing various things recently about the backlog of dossiers currently at the CCAA. The estimates are anywhere from 20,000 to 40,000 families currently waiting, with most estimates hovering between 20,000 and 30,000.
Let’s assume that the CCAA was getting around 1,000 dossiers a month before the deluge of dossiers hit. This would mean that under normal circumstances the backlog at 7 months meant they had 7,000 dossiers waiting.
And then let’s assume they started receiving an average of 1,600 NSN dossiers per month in March 2005, and that in October of 2005 they started referring 600 babies a month instead of 1000 babies a month. From March thru September we need to add 600 dossiers a month to the backlog (7*600 = 4,200) and starting in October we need to add 1000 dossiers a month to the backlog (12*1000 = 12,000). If you add the original 7,000 plus 12,000 plus 4,200 you get 23,200 dossiers. Divide that by 600 and at the current rate it will take them 39 months to work their way through the current backlog. That’s three years and three months.
What numbers here are estimates and which am I sure of?
I am pretty sure that the 1,000 referrals a month before the slowdown happened is pretty close to accurate. Everything I’ve seen would point to them referring between 900 and 1,150 babies per month last year. And, since they kept the status quo for a while, it makes sense that they were both receiving and referring about 1000 NSN dossiers per month.
The 1,600 number is open to some speculation, and I estimated on the bottom end. We are told in a senate hearing that the CCAA said they received 2,000 dossiers in October 2005. It seems October is a pretty normal (current) sized month. I’ve also heard some other numbers recently that jives with them getting between 1,500 and 3,000 dossiers a month and that this would probably average out to about 2,000 received per month. SN dossiers are estimated to be at 20% of the total right now, which would give us 1,600 NSN dossiers a month. I’m not super positive about this number, I actually think it’s probably between 1,600 and 1,800. At 1,800 received per month the backlog would be 27,000 dossiers, which would take 45 months (3 years and nine months) to get through at a pace of around 600 NSN referrals per month.
I am positive that they are referring somewhere close to an average of 600 NSN babies per month right now. I’m sorry I can’t share why I’m so sure, but I can’t.
And, one final comment. 23,000 dossiers equals 23,000 families. If you re-read this, do so with the idea that each of these numbers of dossiers represents parents and grandparents and aunts and uncles waiting on a new family member – in some cases it also represents siblings who are waiting on a younger sibling. Hundreds of thousands of people. Also remember that each match made represents a baby in an orphanage who is waiting (or will be waiting) for a family that they don’t even know exists. And these numbers aren’t even taking into account the SN families and babies. It’s easy to throw numbers around, sometimes I just think we need to remember that they aren’t just numbers.
What do I think about the future?
It appears that new applications are finally starting to slow down a little bit for U.S. families, though only by about 10 or 15 percent. My anecdotal evidence doesn’t point to applications from other countries to the CCAA slowing down any yet. Also, the CCAA recently reached an agreement with Italy, so that is one more country that will be submitting dossiers. I don’t believe we can count on less people sending applications because of the long wait.
I believe that some agencies expect the CCAA to begin doing more referrals per month than they have been doing. If they can get back to 1,000 referrals per month then this would help tremendously. At 1,000 referrals per month, 23,000 dossiers would take 23 months.
So, the CCAA either has to start referring more babies, or let the process stretch out well beyond two years. Even if they put a stop to new applicants right now, it would still take years to work their way through what they already have sitting in stacks in their building.
October 13th, 2006 at 8:18 pm
I’m so trying to give the CCAA the benefit of a doubt here.
I can’t imagine that they would keep reaching agreements with new countries and accepting new dossiers at the same rate if they had no plan or intention to add more orphanages to the IA program in order to get the referral rates back up.
What a total meltdown and embarrassment to CCAA and China that would be.
I think (and hope) that CCAA is doing whatever they can to solve this huge problem. The whole thing has so much delicate and complicated politics in it. CCAA is not only battling the dossier backlog – they have to deal with the “mini-Popes” out in the provinces, with uneducated heads of ophanages, with not getting their requests approved by the MoCA, with saving face for themselves and for the Chinese Govt etc etc…
_my 2 cents worth_
Will get of soap box now… off to bed.
//Kattzilla
DTC Sept 21st 2006
October 13th, 2006 at 8:36 pm
Great number crunching RQ!! Though admittedly frustrating for us as we are not even yet DTC (but are getting close). In some respects I think it will be easier for us than for everyone here with log in dates in mid-late 2005 or early 2006, as there was little sign of a slowdown during all of your paperchases. We are grateful that we’ve been able to adjust our expectations to something more realistic and if things speed up (or slow down less rapidly) we’ll be pleasantly surprised. Though I’d be lying if I said that we weren’t filled with sadness as this has all sunk in during the last several weeks.
One question on this RQ – was there a significant uptick in dossiers per month in early 2005 and what do you think caused the increase? I know this is not a perfect science as there is no ideal source of data but just wondering why you think there might have been a change. Probably there’s been some discussion of this here before so my apologies if that’s the case.
Thanks again for all of your hard work RQ and Happy Friday to everyone!!
October 13th, 2006 at 8:40 pm
Why did I always think that CCAA had a cap on the number of healthy infants eligible for international adoption? I know I’ve read it several times over the past year from time to time. Does anybody know if there is a limit on number of children allowed to leave the country?
October 13th, 2006 at 8:45 pm
Zada,
One reason for the increase in dossier submission could be because when prospective adoptive families saw that the wait estimate from DTC to referral was around 6 months, lots of families started the process believing that they would be able to complete an adoption if a very short amount of time.
October 13th, 2006 at 8:51 pm
You might also factor in those of us who started out as NSN but sometime after LID changed to SN because a little one touched our hearts. Doesn’t decrease the number of dossiers submitted monthly by much, but I know of several families who’ve done this recently.
October 13th, 2006 at 8:52 pm
Here’s a dumb question – what happens to all of the babies who are in orphanages that currently don’t take part in IA? Surely, domestic adoption doesn’t clean those places out. I would think they would be busting at the seams after awhile.
October 13th, 2006 at 8:55 pm
The 1,000 matches per month is presumably close to the monthly cap. I’ve heard it as 13,000 per year, so it could be a bit more than 1,000 a month. I do not know if we can expect to ever see more than 1,000 per month or not. Just because that has been the number in the past, doesn’t mean they may not decide to do more (or less) in the future. Some have theorized that the current slowdown is in part due to the CCAA moving the cap back for 2006 and that this is why there are less paper ready babies. I have nothing to tell me for sure that they did or did not do this.
As for why the deluge in dossiers, there are a number or theories. I think it may be another perfect storm thing, as there seems to be three major reasons.
The first is that Oprah did a show on adoption from China in late November or early December of 2004. This sounded silly to me, but when we talked about it long ago a lot of people commented that they had seen the show and started researching. Most of those people were LID between May and July of 2005.
The second is that the Russian program had some major problems and came to an almost standstill during this time period. A lot of people who were paperchasing for Russia switched to China, some who were already in process in Russia switched.
And the third is that when the CCAA became Hague compliant several countries that were not sending dossiers before could suddenly start doing so.
October 13th, 2006 at 8:58 pm
catbertie – that’s factored in. SN adoptions are currently 20% of NSN adoptions, so when I pulled the SN’s out that took care of it. The numbers don’t change if I figure those who start out NSN and change added to those who start out SN.
I’m just figuring the total that end up going the SN route.
October 13th, 2006 at 9:19 pm
RQ — are you seeing any signs that agencies are beginning to worry about how a prolonged (possible 3-plus years) referral process will affect their operations – financially or otherwise? Our agency is a real “cool customer.” They don’t even flinch when we express concern about the current situation. They just repeat the standard line about it being agency policy not to speculate on wait times. They’ll only verify that their most recent referrals waited 13-14 months. If we’re really looking at a 3-4 year backlog of dossiers, then agencies are going to have to adjust the way they do business.
October 13th, 2006 at 9:24 pm
I will say again, I spoke to my agency yesterday and they are seeing a HUGE drop off in applications. I think people are finally seeing the light and realizing they don’t want to wait a few years for their child. I think it is going to hurt these agencies in the pocket. I think we will start to see (and we have ) the smaller agencies in trouble.
October 13th, 2006 at 9:26 pm
I personally feel it is dishonest for agencies to just say “the current wait is ___”. I feel they should say, “the current wait is ___, this time last year it was _____, we have no way of knowing what future wait times may be”.
October 13th, 2006 at 9:32 pm
meetingcate – I have numbers from several agencies showing DTC’s and/or LID’s, and they aren’t down that much yet.
Maybe new applicants are down though, and that won’t be showing up yet on those numbers, as they’d still be paperchasing.
October 13th, 2006 at 9:39 pm
RQ and pandamomma- Thanks for these explanations – all sound like potentially important factors. I knew my naive Angelina Jolie hypothesis could not possibly be right – the timing doesn’t line up and her first adopted child (Maddux?) was not from China!
October 13th, 2006 at 10:13 pm
My agency is telling people the wait is around 18 mos now and increasing each month. They have alse recently increased their fee for China adoptions by $6K for new applicants not those of us waiting currently!!!
October 13th, 2006 at 10:13 pm
Ohhhhhhhhhhh…I am so sad…when we started, I was sure she’d be home by Christmas. Now, maybe not even for next Christmas? No toys under the tree again this year, then an empty sled, no little bunny at Easter, another silent Mothers Day and Fathers Day, no one to help us build sandcastles, no little pumpkin…and then yet another empty Christmas? I’m so sad…
Nancy in NJ
L(ost) I(n) D(espair) 2/16/06
October 13th, 2006 at 10:19 pm
Zada,
I have yet to meet a single adoptive parent who credits anything a celebrity has done as the reason they are adopting. When I read Jessica Simpson’s quote that “…international adoption rates have skyrocketed because of celebrities adopting…” I wanted to be sick. For them to think that the citizens of the world look to them for guidance in the decisions we all make is only a testament to their own self-absorption and dreams of grandeur.
October 13th, 2006 at 11:06 pm
I have begun to wonder if my agency hasn’t seen the writing on the wall, so to speak. They have added 3 new countries, doubling the number, in the last year. I think they may be anticipating the China applications/income to be way down. This is pure speculation. Perhaps they are just really good at what they do and want to extend themselves. The natural cynic in me does wonder though…
October 14th, 2006 at 12:29 am
LostInDespair,
I’m so sorry you’re sad. Your post broke my heart! Don’t lose hope. You have been waiting for so long, and it is so hard. It has to get better though. Really. Every day is closer than the day before. We can do this. You have already gone through so much! Just hang on!
MamaC
LID 3/10/06
October 14th, 2006 at 12:31 am
Pandamomma- I had never heard that Jessica Simpson quote and agree with you that it’s self-absorbed and flat out bizarre. I hope that Madonna will not make any similar quotes after apparently finalizing her own adoption from Malawi this week!!
I do wonder which countries (if any) will experience a significant increase in international adoptions if the current trends in China continue. It seems like it is becoming more difficult in many countries, with Vietnam’s recent reopening an exception.
And I wonder whether a war-torn country like Afghanistan will ever participate in IA. I shudder to think how many orphaned children are currently there and in some of the other countries that do not participate at all in IA for one reason or another.
October 14th, 2006 at 12:38 am
Lost in despair…hang in there this will be a distant memory soon and well worth it.
I keep thinking that the CCAA moved into a BIG building so they can and will speed up the process soon, yet as Jane in China stated at her conferences it takes time to train the new people.
We WILL get there.
LID 5-15-06
October 14th, 2006 at 4:33 am
Lost in Despair,
Your post has me crying….these significant dates for these events are what the memories of being parents and childhood is all about. I remember how important these all were to my mother and grandmother.
Maybe we should all take up a voluntary post this coming Xmas for those in our own countries less fortunate than ourselves….I know it’s not the same, but it will help fill a very big void, and just maybe place a smile on the face of a little one.
Your turn will come, our turn will come, and for those behind us their’s too. Big Hugs your way.
Just a say on the Madonna announcement this week. I have already had several friends ask, how come she is getting her baby so quick? They are all feeling that $$$$ speak.
I really would love to know if she has had to endure the wait as we all have, all the paperwork and questions and same fees?
October 14th, 2006 at 4:35 am
Oh I forgot to say RQ, you are incredible on your stats and math. I can’t believe how you can pull figures apart and make it make sense.
Thankyou
October 14th, 2006 at 7:46 am
RQ,
Are you sure that China will add Italy to it’s list ? Isn’t that encouraging in a way …
RDT.
October 14th, 2006 at 9:15 am
I think your numbers sound accurate for what I have read. This is really sounding like a much longer wait than 2 years for us. I just find this whole situation bizzare and getting more so by the minute.
October 14th, 2006 at 9:21 am
just as an aside, i read an interesting stat the other day- that spain (lil ol spain) has now overtaken the u.s. as the #1 destination for adopted chinese girls…that’s a lot per capita!
October 14th, 2006 at 11:06 am
Madonna went in and handpicked a child from a country that does not even allow international adoption. That says it all. But, I don’t begrude her really. One less child in a Malawi orphanage is good news. That country is destitute.
October 14th, 2006 at 11:42 am
I have one thought that keeps going through my mind, China is a comunist country, what the citizens do is in a very large part controlled by the government. Does it not make sense then, that the government has controll over the orphanages. Can’t they make all orphanages participate in IA? Am I missing something here? I can’t imagine it is easy for CCAA to house all the waiting Dossiers! The Chinese government has much more control over this then they let on. I am not mad at them just frustrated! If they only want to adopt out so many children each year then just say so! and give us concrete numbers and dates to work with.
October 14th, 2006 at 12:07 pm
Remember that they moved in the summer to bigger digs…they had to put all those dossiers somewhere. :) Now they have room after room after room of waiting dossiers. How sad to think that each one represents a waiting family, as RQ said. Time seems to move sooooo slowly….and then you realize that another month or two has gone by and we’re that much closer.
I started paperchasing in February 2005, was dtc on October 10, 2005 and was lid Oct 31/05. Sometimes it does seem forever, and then all of a sudden you realize, hey, I”m getting closer and closer and closer!
Can you tell today is a good day??
Snick
dd Sunshine 5.5
lid Oct 31….inching closer and closer to snuggling my toddler
October 14th, 2006 at 12:45 pm
Snick-
All those waiting dossiers mean waiting families, as you say. Also, let’s all remember, waiting children. The saddest part to me is not our wait, or our life being on hold, or my frustration with CCAA, but the children who continue to be abandonded and the wait and wait and wait for a person to make them part of a family. It seems incomprehensible at times that CCAA does not move faster when you think of all those lonely little hearts…
It’s a good day today, but only if I don’t dwell on the above.
Meg
LID
9/29
October 14th, 2006 at 1:40 pm
Has anyone heard recently the population numbers released for China showing that they have had such a large decrease in population growth that their economic growth will begin to decline? My husband heard something last week on the Public Radio and if we are hearing news about a decline then wouldn’t it be presumptive to say that China is well aware of the future impact of negative population growth on their econmomy? I’m ignorant but am sensing that this slow down could possibly be a very deliberate attempt to retain for their own future population. Am I way off base?
October 14th, 2006 at 4:03 pm
RayRDT,
long time lurker, first time posting. I’m from Italy but live in the States with my husband who is from America. I’ve read in a post from the Italian foreign ministry: the agreement for international adoption between CHina and Italy is signed already (sep 2006). It was stalled for a long time. During the meeting with the Italian foreign minister, the Chinese minister of civil affair has stated that “many Chinese couples are adopting today and less children are already given for adoption internationally, and they don’t plan to expand the number of children for international adoption…” I’m paraphrasing here. He also says that the agreement is to demonstrate friendship and closer collaboration with a country they trust (Italy). This said, I too believe that if they add countries could be a good sign. I have to say also that a wait of two years in Italy will be happily accepted by many couples, as national adoption is virtually impossibile (timeline etc) and international adoption can take up to 5 years. Friends of mine have adopted two children from India. For the first one they waited 5 years; for the second, 3. I know other couples that adopted from Russia and the same time frame applied. So maybe China will be a hit, even though when we said to my family and friends in Italy that we were adopting from China people looked at us as if we had two heads. Italians are used to children from India and South America, but have sometimes some cultural resistances (I think mainly because they don’t know China and they only thing they see are the high number of Chinese working at the markets, or in constructions and taking, they say, italians jobs) towards China. So, I think it will take a little while to have a huge increase on adoption requests coming from Italy towards China.
Ciao! LID 8/24/05
October 14th, 2006 at 5:19 pm
I completely agree with RQ’s perfect storm rationale, and let me add to it. Kazakhstan implemented completely new dossier standards in 2005 which cause a shut down for some time, then dossiers slowly started to get processed. I think many potential Kazakhstan families also jumped ship to China. Ukraine was also a disaster at that time, and really still is. We had finished one adoption in 2005 and started researching for #2. At that time, really China, Korea and Guatemala were the only stable programs, and Guatamala was having major PGN issues to. All of this combined left China as “THE” adoption program, and people flocked to it. Now Vietnam has opened back up, but at the same time Korean adoptions are getting a new face (more domestic, wait times increasing). So the addition of Vietnam and reduction in Korean adoptions could be a wash. The US is fully implementing the Hague by fall 2007, which could reportedly shut down Guatemala. I think thats why you arent seeing the numbers fall dramatically with China. Its become a long wait, but there just arent that many other options now. Kazakhstan is up and running again, but the costs are usually high and the time in country can be prohibitive for many families.
October 14th, 2006 at 10:52 pm
This is precisely why agencies like ours tell us to stay away from your site (ha, ha, as if that’s possible :) — you tell us the things they don’t want us to hear! Thank you so much for all the work you do and for telling us what our agencies won’t say. I hate that the wait is this long, but I’d rather know what we’re looking at instead of blindly buying the 12-14 months our agency reluctantly says when really pushed. You are awesome!
LID 7/11/06
October 14th, 2006 at 11:51 pm
I agree with the thought that adding Italy is a good sign. I don’t think they would add a country if they thought they might stop accepting dossiers to catch up. Perhaps, they will gradually go back to matching 1000 babies per month instead of the 600. Adding more orphanages into the IA program would help – aren’t they trying to do this? Perhaps we will see numbers go up over the next 2 months as babies become paper ready (from the April meeting).
I also remember hearing that domestic adoptions haven’t “caught on” as China had hoped. This is absolutely no shock to me. I think it will take years and years to change their “culture” (the way people think). “Blood” is everything! So, IMO, by them using the whole domestic adoption issue as a reason for less babies, well, I just think that makes them sound and look good. But, really I don’t believe it is making much of an impact on the number of babies available – there are so many. I doubt also that the domestic adoption babies are taken out of the IA pool of babies???
I don’t know; if I had to guess I think things will not get so so bad maybe 2 years, but with them adding Italy and still accepting dossiers etc. it is a good sign to me that THEY think their program is going just fine. After all what’s the benefit for them to add countries and continue to accept dossiers if they don’t plan on getting them “off their desk” with in a reasonable amount of time. What is the benefit of them storing all that paper for years?? They certainly don’t get any money from all of us until we all travel and get our babies!
October 15th, 2006 at 5:34 am
ziggy:
I like the way you think :-)
Very similar to my thoughts of the situation and the possible reasons and solutions to this problem we’re all so concerned with.
DTC Sept 21st 2006
- still hoping to be a mom in early 2008!
//Kattzilla
October 15th, 2006 at 9:46 am
Hey there.
What I’m trying to figure out (among other things!) is whether there is any benefit to China to speed up international adoptions. I’m just not sure why China would care whether foreigners wait a year or three years for a referral.
And if there’s no downside for China to the long waits, why would its government take steps to speed things up?
I’d love for one of you kind souls out there to tell me that China is under some legitimate and persuasive pressure to speed things up. Anyone? Anyone?
Jackie
LID May 2006
October 15th, 2006 at 3:28 pm
I’m going to try this again. I apologize if this post shows up twice. Technologically challenged.
I’m just wondering whether there is any real “pressure” on the Chinese government to speed up foreign adoptions. In other words, what would prompt the CCAA to make serious changes / improvements, to the extent that it begins to provide many more referrals per month?
I just don’t see why the CCAA would care whether I have my referral a year from now or two years from now or would feel compelled to share any information about its intentions with anyone externally.
I’m hoping someone can tell me that it is indeed important to the CCAA that it speeds up referrals. Anyone? Anyone?
Thanks!
Jackie
LID May 2006
October 15th, 2006 at 3:41 pm
Jackie, in the past the CCAA has acted in order to speed things up. I do not think that had any thing to do with the government but rather came from the interaction with the agencies. The CCAA keeps changing directors though and this year their whole working situation has changed. They will not speed things up because the parents want it, but the question is what the quota for IA is and how it has been filled (or not). The million dollar question is really what the quota will be next year and if they can fill that. But I really do not think speed is what they think of anymore.
October 15th, 2006 at 7:25 pm
I just have to ask the question and it’s a hard one. Don’t we have some knowledge that actually supports that there are in excess of 100,000 bables a year being abandonded throughout the country of China? I have actually read that the number could be up to 5 times that amount. Maybe I have read incorrect information but with only approximately 12,000 babies being referred a year throughout the world (or am I off??) and with so many babies being found abandoned in China, something has to give! I wonder if anyone has any insight and as always we wonder what we can do to help. Note, I say to help and not to find fault!! We can only imagine the process is difficult and I m sure that the people who work for CCAA would do more if they could. It just seems like the process has to change to allow more children to be TAKEN CARE of and not just left in an orphanage. I hope we can find answers to some of these questions! Any ideas RQ? Still praying for a change.. anxious dad!
October 15th, 2006 at 7:27 pm
Hi!
I can’t help wondering how on earth they will be able to speed things up… There really are only two ways as I see it, and a third not speeding up “solution”, but still a solution:
1. More babies. IF there are more babies who need families and who can’t have chinese parents. I’m convinced there are children, but I wonder if China really wants to send more babies abroad, of various reasons.
2. Restrictions, which will not have any effect for a long time, unless they let them affect also those already logged in, which I doubt. Restrictions could be either a quota or things like no more singles, weight limits and so on.
And then, the third, the “solution” without really speeding up:
3. Closing for a while. I think that would mean closing for up to two years.
This sounds so depressive so i really want to be contradicted in all ways you can find out!!! Please!!! Other theories? Anything? Anyone! (Excuse me for any misspellings and such, english is not my first language.)
October 15th, 2006 at 8:41 pm
I just tried to get on the CCAA website and it was down. Can anyone else get on?
October 15th, 2006 at 9:05 pm
I can’t get in either.
October 15th, 2006 at 9:13 pm
It’s probably early for referrals but lets hope they are at least updating that they are farther in the review room….like March!
October 15th, 2006 at 9:37 pm
I can’t either….
October 15th, 2006 at 10:34 pm
CCAA still down, I wonder whats up with the site? Let’s
hope it’s something good :-)
October 15th, 2006 at 11:04 pm
LOL about the Jessica Simpson quote! What an absolute dimwit! Like anyone in the real world would care what the celebr-idiots do!!
October 16th, 2006 at 2:02 am
CCAA site is still down…
October 16th, 2006 at 3:04 am
CCAA is back up – can’t see any changes so maybe just a server crash!!!
October 16th, 2006 at 3:18 am
CCAA site is back up with no changes.
October 16th, 2006 at 10:30 am
The CCAA does not set the yearly quota of children allowed out for IA, PRC does. So we are questioning the wrong group here. CCAA gets a set amount of kids they are allowed to have out for IA each year. They cant change anything. And if they did, it would questioning the big boss (the PRC government).
Keep in mind that our frustration with this program as the wait currently stands has no effect on the folks in China right now. They are doing their job. They are referring out 600 kids a month and therefore, they are making progress.
October 16th, 2006 at 11:03 am
Okay, thanks. My question remains, though: is there any real “pressure†on the Chinese government to speed up foreign adoptions?
I don’t know anything about the politics of international adoption. Are the Chinese government’s ends better served by speeding up international adoptions or maintaining the “status quo” of increasing wait times.
And what face does the Chinese government want to show to the world on this issue?
I’m just trying to learn more about the systemic reasons for what’s happening with the process.
Thanks again.
Jackie
October 16th, 2006 at 11:28 am
Wickedwitcheast – Thank you for your info. This may be a silly question, but what does PRC stand for? I couldn’t find the answer to this question in the FAQs. Also, do we know for sure that there is a quota every year? I thought we were all just speculating that this might be the case. Any thoughts?
Thanks!
LID 6/6/06
October 16th, 2006 at 11:39 am
PRC People’s Republic of China
October 16th, 2006 at 11:59 am
Oh where oh where could the rumors be???
Wish the leaky faucet would drip!!
October 16th, 2006 at 12:48 pm
My agency called this weekend and said that with a March LID we’ll be getting a referral in March of April. I wanted to laugh out loud and say, “Are you clueless…you obviously don’t know the Queen…” but I just said, “Oh, that sounds great.” Of course I followed that up with…”So, if we don’t go until 2008 then what kinds of updates will we do then.” I think she knew I wasn’t buying it. Oh well. I’m still keeping my fingers crossed. You just never know!!!! :) Good luck to everyone. I think we’ll hear something new by Friday!
October 16th, 2006 at 12:55 pm
O.K. yes silly question that was! I’ll go crawl into my hole now. I guess I could have thought a little more about it.
October 16th, 2006 at 1:29 pm
Hi Jackie- I will take a stab at your questions. I’m sure other folks might have more to add. I’m no expert on the politics of IA but my sense is that it would not be appropriate for one nation to pressure any other regarding IA. I think it is understood that the ideal is for kids to be raised in their country of origin–IA is only a way of finding families for kids when willing/able families cannot be found in their country of origin. I think, with economic conditions changing rapidly in China, it is becoming possible for more abandoned children to stay in China. And, hopefully, fewer abandonments are happening in the first place. So, now more than ever, it would be inappropriate to put on any pressure re: speeding up IA. China’s needs would be best served by making IA obsolete (because of improved economic/social conditions, etc.). I think China must surely want to convey to the world that they are already less reliant on IA to meet the needs of their children. That would be at odds with continuing to place IA kids each month at the rate they had been. I think the CCAA has communicated that the wait is liable to increase. I think rather than cajoling them to speed up, we need to work on what we can do to adapt to the changes (i.e., do a better job of communicating to prospective families that the wait is not going to stay at 14 mos., lobby to have our I-171H process simplified, etc.).
October 16th, 2006 at 1:48 pm
Hi Jackie, I just included your questions in my quote. These are great questions. I wish someone knew the answer. I can give you my speculation based on our 3 Chinese adoptions and the opinions of my Chinese friends.
1) The only real external pressure I’ve heard of comes from a human rights organization working within China whose leaders met with CCAA officials to plead with them to help get children out of orphanages and into families sooner. My memory is vague on the details, but I know this took place within the past year or two. I don’t know the outcome of that meeting (but there are still thousands of children waiting in orphanages).
Various U.S. officials (usually Congressional reps) have at times over the past 5-6 years made contact with CCAA out of concern for the longer wait times. They’ve received the same kinds of explanations our agencies get–lots of dossiers, not enough babies, training new CCAA staff, etc. etc.
I think the bottom line is that China doesn’t like being told what to do–which is perfectly alright. It’s not our place to go in and tell them how to handle their orphaned children. At one point, a U.S. official offered to send American workers to CCAA to help with the backlog, and that offer was immediately declined. Sometimes I think WHY NOT!?! Our culture is the model of efficiency! American workers can multi-task and we could get those babies home in no time! But then I think about how long it takes my local USCIS office to process an I-600A…and how long it takes an insurance claim to make its way through the system…etc. and I sheepishly shrug off my arrogance and remember that it’s a completely different culture with its own agenda.
As far as internal pressure, the only thing I can think of is that $3000 per adoption orphanage “donation.” Our youngest daughter’s orphanage gets only a small percentage of that money after it passes through the provincial channels, but it’s still largely how the director meets the daily needs of the orphanage.
2) I don’t see how their ends are better served by maintaining the status quo of increasing wait times. If the bottom line is money, then this is costing China plenty: the cost of hopefully hiring more orphanage staff to care for children who are waiting longer, hiring more CCAA staff to work on the backlog, fewer families traveling and spending money in China, fewer families sending dossiers and paying those adoption fees, etc.
3) So far the face has been that things are under control and they are proceeding as normal. If I’m remembering correctly, the only comments from CCAA officials have been that wait times will speed up or wait times will increase. We’ve heard rumors of a possible suspension while they get caught up. We haven’t heard “This is so far out of control that now we’re going to throw in the towel and shut down adoptions.” And I don’t think we’d hear that anyway, even if that was the truth. China is not going to admit something that would make it look like it made a mistake, so there will always be some kind of a positive spin.
Again Jackie, these are just my opinions, and I’m sure there are others here who will disagree. But they’re really good questions to ask and I hope I’ve at least given you more to think about :)
October 16th, 2006 at 1:53 pm
Sorry Jackie–somehow my quote of your questions didn’t make it to my post.
Here they are, for anyone who wonders what in the world I was talking about:
“is there any real “pressure†on the Chinese government to speed up foreign adoptions?
Are the Chinese government’s ends better served by speeding up international adoptions or maintaining the “status quo†of increasing wait times.
And what face does the Chinese government want to show to the world on this issue?”
October 16th, 2006 at 4:48 pm
Seeking-
I think you are absolutely right. It is wrong of us to expect our country to put pressure on another country. This is their business. We have just chosen to do business with them. But it is PRC’s call.
My agency mentioned to me recently that the idea of “accountability” is truly a UD value. We want people to explain their behavior. We want to know why people do things. But, this is not a value in China. Doing their job well is a value they believe in, but probably not accountability. It makes sense and I had never thought about it before. We are expecting a certain level of behavior (like them telling us what on earth is going on) because that is a value WE value.
October 16th, 2006 at 4:49 pm
TA’s ARE HERE!
Our referral arrived July 25th and our request for TA paperwork was not looked at until after the Chinese National Holiday, so this is really fast!
Hope this means good news for the speed of the next referrals!
WOO WOO!!!!
October 16th, 2006 at 5:13 pm
Waiting For Jade, do you mean September 25 instead of July 25th. Sorry, I was confused. Congratulations!!!! Go celebrate.
October 16th, 2006 at 5:22 pm
Waiting For Jade,
Congratulations!!!!!!! I sure hope all the departments of the CCAA have been just as busy after their vacation!! =)
October 16th, 2006 at 6:10 pm
WOW! This is GREAT! The CCAA really is going to give us some “shock and awe” this time around! ;-) haha now, where are those referrals???????? oh, referrrrrals, where arrrrrrrre youuuuuu?????????????????????
October 16th, 2006 at 6:10 pm
Hi RQ,
Is it true that referrals can be expected quick now?
I can almost not sleep anymore…..are we in or out now.
LID: 08-24-05
October 16th, 2006 at 6:23 pm
Waiting for Jade-
Congrats to your family!!! That is so exciting to hear!
I’m with jmlance… where, oh where are you tonight??? I would love to see those storks soon!!!
Claire LID 10/10/05
October 16th, 2006 at 6:36 pm
And rumors, where are the rumors????? It’s officially mid-month now!!!
*lid 8/19/05 & going bananas here*
October 16th, 2006 at 7:03 pm
Things have sure changed after they fixed the leaky faucet.
Must. Have. Rumors. Anyone?
October 16th, 2006 at 7:06 pm
yes – sorry for the typo, our LID was July 25th and our referral was Sept 25th. Paperwork went back to China on Sept 27th but according to our agency was not looked at until Oct 8th. with TA arriving on Oct 16th that means an 8 day turn around….
Just a tad excited and frantic and not paying attention to typos….
January 6th, 2007 at 12:34 am
New here… Any words of wisdom for those of us who are just LID? Our LID is 11/24/06. We are really on the fence as to whether or not to stick it out or try to go another route. We are afraid we will wait 2 years only to have the wait time continue to increase. So happy for all of you who have the bulk of your wait behind you! Looking for answers or direction or a sign…:-0 Thanks!