November 2nd Analysis
This month’s referrals seem to represent about a 15% increase over the number of matches made in recent months.
I believe that if they refer the same amount next month as they referred this month, we should see the next cut-off date (end of Nov or beginning of Dec) somewhere between September 8th and 11th.
The following batch (end of Dec or beginning of Jan) would then be somewhere around October 8th (give or take a few days). I know some agencies are saying that farther into October could be in December, so perhaps they think the CCAA is going to continue increasing the amount they refer each month.
Going forward with the same amount referred this month, the Jan/Feb batch would be somewhere around October 24th (again, give or take a few days).
These predictions are based on analysis of the polls, not rumors. The predictions assume that they will keep up the pace of this month in the coming months. We have seen them put a big month out and then go back to the same as the previous month’s amount before, there is nothing that says they have to keep up with the pace that they managed this month. If they go back to last month’s pace then we could be looking at September 5th then Sept 28 then Oct 13 then Oct 26.
As a reminder, please be gentle on the server today. I will start making arrangements to try to get us moved to another hosting company next week. If this site goes down today, the backup blog is http://isorumors.blogspot.com/.
If you get your referral today and you have a blog, please either email it to me or post it in the comments to the thread that I will start once referrals begin arriving.
November 2nd, 2006 at 9:38 am
RQ – Where would this put the Dec LIDer’s in getting a referral? April? Help!!
Congrats to everyone today!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 9:43 am
RQ,
Do you think that once they get thru the HUGE months of October & November, they might be capable of getting back to referring whole months? Any thoughts?
March LID
November 2nd, 2006 at 9:48 am
RQ- We are Dec 6th. What do ya think?
November 2nd, 2006 at 9:50 am
Any projections on when the Review Room info is updated on the CCAA site?
LID 3/21
November 2nd, 2006 at 9:50 am
RQ- Was Sept. a small month for logins, I thought I remember reading that once. If so do you think that they might get through the whole month? Here’s hoping!!
Lisa (LID 09/27/05) :)
November 2nd, 2006 at 9:56 am
What about the rumor regarding a middle of November referral batch. Anymore signs of that happening?
Congratulations to everyone receiving your referrals
November 2nd, 2006 at 9:57 am
JerseyGirl,
I did my own projection this morning (with RQ’s charts) and came up with around January 19th that the CCAA should show March out of review. I’d LOVE for it to be sooner.
LID 3/8
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:02 am
We have a early January LID and was thinking of a March referral or even an early April referral. Hoping that CCAA will continue its pace or even do some bigger batches!
LID 1/4
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:03 am
Nothing recent on the review room No one has emailed me recently saying “My LID is X and I was just ask for information from the review room”.
I am going as far out on projections as the daily polls take us. It’s impossible to go farther without the daily poll data. Besides, I’m usually close on what the next cut off will be but then all bets are off for the farther out predictions.
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:08 am
RQ – Could you do a poll for the Nov/Dec people? I think there are a lot of us on here who are wondering where we stand.
THanks!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:11 am
Hello all my Dec LID friends! Boy, we are all getting ready to be that much closer! I was going to ask RQ the same thing you all have already. April maybe? Hmm, I was getting ready to wait until next FALL! Guess we need to wait a few more months to see how the numbers go~
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:12 am
THANKS for all your hard work RQ we all appreaciate this lifeline you provide.
LID 5/15/06…”I believe” there will be an end of nov batch…I believe
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:13 am
waitingfornaomi – I gave my projections in this blog post for how I think September is going to go. Look at the top of this page, second and third paragraphs.
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:16 am
So much fantastic news – I can hardly breathe. For the first time in a few months I’m letting my guard on my emotions down and doing the snoopy dance!
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:21 am
Had a very long night with a sick dog (who got into the cat food) and was hoping to check this site for some good news. Way to change my day around! Dog is feeling better and I am so happy for the folks in August who will be getting their referrals today/tomorrow. What great news.
I am another Decermber LID’er and am anxious to finally just make it into the polls! :) Felt like my heart had kind of stalled there for a while, but it seems to be beating at full strength once again.
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:22 am
RQ- could you explain what the daily polls are? I want to make sure that I only vote once. How do we know which poll we’ve already voted in? I have a Nov LID, and I’ve only voted once in a poll so far.
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:23 am
RQ – when’s your LID?
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:23 am
Our LID is Sept. 5, 2005. We are going to be holding our breath over the next month until that next batch of referrals are kicked out!! Congrats to all of those included in this last batch. I bet those of you with 24th and 25th Log Ins about keeled over this morning!
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:24 am
Werewaiting -
I’m a Dec LID too and am thrilled to think that we could get our referral in April/May – I was thinking summer/fall too as of a few weeks ago but things are looking a little better now. We are just trying to take it a day, week & month at a time – but we would definitely prefer a referral sooner rather than later!! I really can’t wait until our Dec referral projections start to show up – how exciting. Yippee!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:30 am
The current poll is a monthly poll, the link for it is the purple box at the top of the main page that says “LID Poll, click here to vote”.
Polls that are closed can be viewed at the link in the top right hand column under Site Navigation: Poll Results
I only run one poll at a time.
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:32 am
Hi, congrats to all receiving referrals..can’t wait to see the photos.
RQ, can you update the prediction chart you did w/ the dates and # of days…I love that thing, but can’t think right now to do it myself…
LID 11/07/05
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:35 am
RQ-
Can I ask a question about those mid-November referral rumors that we heard a few weeks ago?
Do you think this batch is considered that OR do you think there is any chance that they may do a quicker batch and we’d have another November batch (mid)?
Sorry if I seem insane for asking this. I just wondered what happened to that theory.
As a 9/12/05 LID I am going to on the edge!
Thanks.
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:37 am
RQ, thanks for the analysis and all you’re hard work.
I was wondering, awhile back someone posted a link to a website where they were calculating the “velocity” of referrals. I don’t know where they got the number of LIDs, but does anyone know what website this is?
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:47 am
The forecast site works strictly on number of days done per batch – it’s something like chinaadoptionforecast.com? I’ve got the Bright Outlooks site linked in the sidebar, they use a combination of a bunch of things for their predictions. http://www.brightoutlooks.com/
As for the November 15 rumor, I’m not sure what to think. They’ve (supposedly) been through with the batch that is mailing now for at least a week, maybe longer. So, if a batch is mailed November 15th then that would be 3 weeks to work on the batch that they should be working on right now. Possible? Sure. Probable? I don’t really think so.
I’ve got my ear out to see if I see any more hints of an early batch, I’ll let you know if I hear anything.
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:48 am
Someone posted their referral on the French Yahoo board but didn’t mention their LID!
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:54 am
RQ – thanks for your answer! I don’t know what to think but my eternal optomism (it is a curse) thinks they will spead up a bit more before end of year.
Thanks for all you do! Time to take a break and leave your server alone! – - loveherso–
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:56 am
RQ, thank you for being you.
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:00 am
Congratulations to everyone who is getting referrals!! You waited so long!!! This is really good news this morning. Keep the faith all!!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:02 am
Hello everyone. Well, today’s the day! I’m LID August 11, and I haven’t heard from my agency yet. I’m doing my best not to call or email because I don’t want to hear the referral isn’t coming today. I figured she’d call if there is nothing happening today as she knows I am waiting and sitting on pins and needles! i actually dressed up today so I can look my best when I get my referral. Can you believe it?
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:03 am
Congratulations to everyone getting referrals today!! This is such great news!! Keep the faith all!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:15 am
hi, we are lid 12/06 as well, i was so happy to see CCAA updated this morning,, I love this site, thanks for all your hard work..
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:17 am
Lauriesue – Congratulations! You’re going to be a beautiful mom!
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:17 am
Yall that are imminently getting your referrals today or tomorrow will appreciate this…
Yesterday, I saw absolutely the FATTEST, BIGGEST ladybug that I have ever seen in my life. She was a mutant!! And look! Now the biggest batch of referrals in so, so long! Coincidence? I think not.
Yaay for all of you mommies and daddies, both “new” and “again”! I am so thrilled for you. Rejoice today, and we rejoice with you.
MamaC
LID 3/10
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:25 am
Lauriesue: “i actually dressed up today so I can look my best when I get my referral. Can you believe it?”
Too funny! I did the same thing today. I put a pink shirt and pink earings on and have a blue shirt on standby, just in case we receive a boy referral. (we did request boy or girl)
Have fun today!
8/24/05 today!
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:26 am
I HAVE MYREFERRAL D*L GOT THERE EARLY TODAY. I”M 15 minutes from the agency
Jun ZHu Nan
DOB 8/2/2005
Guandong Province
I’ll try and figure out how to make a blog… Oh my. I need technical advice!!! AAAARRRGGG YAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:28 am
Congratulations! That’s amazing! do you have to make a blog to show your referral? Can’t you just post it?
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:30 am
Happy Hour!!!!!
Congratulations…soooo good to see a referral being posted!
So happy for you.
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:32 am
Happy Hour,
Congratulations on your referral!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:32 am
Congrats Happy Hour!
How exciting!
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:32 am
RQ-
Thanks for giving your opinion on the mid-month referrals we heard about earlier.
I am in the next batch but am thinking of waiting to see if they happen to come out before the end of the month.
My 171 expires 2/1 and I am praying I can slip by and not have to drop the additional $1400. If they don’t come by the end of the month, I will have to start the redo. :(
Cheers to all my fellow Pre-26 Auggies!!!!
Laureen
http://www.babysites.com/sites/laureenmary
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:32 am
lauriesue , your ‘getting dressed up today’ to get your referral just touched me in so many ways! All you are so admired by me for your patience, your belief, your love for your baby, and for your support for each other, even when your own heart may me breaking a little (or a lot)
I will get to see a picture of our precious granddaughter (LID 8/15/05) soon , hopefully. I hope she will always know how much she is loved, and how all of you also wish such a good life for her. I know also that I can’t leave this website alone until all of you who I have been following get your referrals and your TA’s.
I wish the world could live together in as much support as this international group does for each other. You inspire me.
RQ, please know there is a grandmom who appreciates you beyond words!
tgthread: I went into your site today. awesome! you may be traveling with my granddaughter also! I love your openness, your humor, and your creativity! I am so happy for you and your wife. Lucky baby coming to your house!!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:32 am
Thank you, thank you, thank you RQ for all your work! LID 8/25 referrals is just the greatest news!!! Congratulations to all the moms and dads who’ll finally get to see their babies pictures! It gives me hope that CCAA will continue to speed up a little and we’ll get our referral for Christmas (10/11 LID). So, RQ, does your agency know who you are???
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:34 am
HappyHour-Congratulations!!!!!! I am so happy for you! Have you seen the picture yet? Details, we need details.
Lauriesue-I did the exactly the same thing, and all I’m doing today is cleaning my basement. I look like one of those women from the 1950′s.
8/10/05
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:35 am
I was looking at Ralph’s data on Bright Outlooks and thinking the following:
Based on all those charts and data from Ralph, I can see that the wait times dropped in 2004 dramtically, and are increasing now. But, is there an average we can discern from those? Because looking at them it seems that 2004 was actually the anomaly rather than now. Maybe the average is more like 300 days? I’m hoping that that is the case and that they are trying to return to a viable average time frame.
Thanks for the math help.
:)
wBw
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:37 am
Grandmom: thanks for that lovely post! Coartney: I have a great picture in my head now of you! I am actually dressed in red and black–ladybug attire! Where is my referral?
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:38 am
Yeah!!!! Congratulations to all of you Aug. 10 -Aug. 25 LIDers. I am so happy for you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:38 am
Yay! Congrats Happy Hour. Post those pics!!!!
8-24-05
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:38 am
CONGRATULATIONS HAPPY HOUR!!!!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:42 am
can you pick up this link???
http://ph.groups.yahoo.com/group/august2005dtc/photos/view/9ceb?b=1
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:43 am
HappyHour-
We are all celebrating with you!!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:45 am
Happy hour – you have to be a member of that group to see the pictures.
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:48 am
Yes! She is beautiful. Congrats!
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:50 am
Here’s the link to the August China Blossoms referral page that everyone can access.
http://www.augustchinablossoms.com/
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:53 am
Sorry RQ, I’ll figure something else out!
November 2nd, 2006 at 12:02 pm
WOOOOHOOOOO!!!!
What an amazing way to wake up!!! I am so happy for all of you and I cannot wait to see the pictures. PLEASE POST THEM!!!
So, after looking at RQ analysis I have decided to be OK with a January referral (im 10-17-05). After seeing TATERS response to the 10-24-05 LID getting their referral in December I started really getting my hopes up but now I am realizing that unless they start going CRAZY with referrals, then I dont think the December referral is a likely option for me. Dont get me wrong, I would LOVE LOVE LOVE that, but just not that probable.
I was discussing this with my friend this AM after we saw the cut off and I was realizing that January is not that bad. We are already into the holiday season (cant belive I am seeing Christmas stuff everywhere) and that goes by SOOOOOO fast. By the time the boys go back to school on January 8 we will just have enough time to get back to normal and then we should get our referral within @ 3 weeks (if they continue at the pace they are now doing). Once we get our referral we will have so much to do that it will probably consume me (knowing my obsessive nature) so it will proabably be best that we get the referral in January so I will have the time to get stuff ready.
Anyone know what the weather is like in March in China????
Congrats to all of you who will be seeing their babies today. I am sooooooo happy for you!!
Christy
10-17-05
November 2nd, 2006 at 12:03 pm
Happyhour-She is adorable!!! I love that sweet little smile.
Congrats!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 12:03 pm
What beautiful babies!! I can’t wait,although I have a looooonnngggg time to go.
LID
June 7/06
November 2nd, 2006 at 12:06 pm
What’s your LID Happy Hour?
November 2nd, 2006 at 12:07 pm
Happy Hour! I meant to start off with: CONGRATULATIONS ON YOUR REFERRAL!!!!! OK, now, what’s your LID?
November 2nd, 2006 at 12:08 pm
Happy Hour,
Your daughter is gorgeous! Congratulations!!! How are you holding up?
November 2nd, 2006 at 12:11 pm
Congrats to all who are getting pictures of your babies!!!!
What a ride this month has been…all of us early sept lid’rs are getting on the roller coaster for another ride!!! Buckle up!! lid-9-8-05
November 2nd, 2006 at 12:11 pm
Bonjour!
I want know :the 25 august are includ or no?
November 2nd, 2006 at 12:16 pm
Everyone asking about what date is and is not included:
http://chinaadopttalk.com/faq/
Question number 1
November 2nd, 2006 at 12:39 pm
referrals are posting!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 12:39 pm
willowflower… My head is spinning in the clouds!!
tresordasie – My LID is 8/22
November 2nd, 2006 at 12:42 pm
Yes, referrals are starting to show up on the August DTC group!!
Now if we can just get some blogs with some referrals on them I’ll make my “list of blogs”
November 2nd, 2006 at 12:51 pm
Now if we can just get some blogs with some referrals on them I’ll make my “list of blogsâ€
where’s salsa when you need her? ….oh, yeah ;-)
November 2nd, 2006 at 12:56 pm
Happy Hour-
SHE IS GEORGOUS!!!!!!!
How old is she???
Laureen
November 2nd, 2006 at 12:59 pm
This is my first post, but great news!!!
just got the call…a Christmas baby born Dec. 26,2005
Won’t get pictures until tomorrow, but hear she is beautiful and completely bald!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:05 pm
Happyhour,
Where is everyone seeing your baby??? I looked on the august site but there are very few referrals on there and they are all old from Sept. Where is your pic????
Christy
10-17-05
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:11 pm
The reason that our agency is guessing that the 10/10/05 LID group will be getting thier referral in December is because of the September mess up, where only a few people got logged in. I think they have a real point to this. Our SW believes that they will soar through September since it is much smaller than other months.
What are other agencies saying about this?
LID
10/10/05
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:12 pm
WOW! Congrats to you all, I am reading with tears in my eyes!
lookingforlydia – my birthday is the 26th as well! I am so happy for you guys!
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:13 pm
My referral is IN! I just got the call! Still waiting for pictures, but she is 2 years old, and her name is Shao Ming-Liang. I’m shaking.
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:14 pm
Kcbock. I’m trying to attach a picture to a blog and create one right now LOL!! I need instructions… HELP!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:15 pm
Happy Hour:
Congratulations! I can’t get into to the site it seems that you have to be a member of the August LID group first and that needs approval –UGH.. I did request an account but who knows how long it will be before it is approved. Please let me know if I am misreading something on the site. I am dying to see your little bundle of joy!
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:15 pm
lookingforlydia:
A Christmas Baby! How wonderful. I hope you will be there for her first birthday!!! What a wonderful gift!
8/24/05 and still waiting for my call… :-D
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:19 pm
Congrats Lauriesue! Can’t wait to see photos.
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:20 pm
Hi everybody!!!
Congrats on your beautiful babies — mine should be “arriving” soon!!
Lauriesue – did you request older? I don’t really care at this point, I just want to see her!!
: ) wfp
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:21 pm
lookingforlydia,
Congratulations! Hope you are in China for her b-day.
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:21 pm
Happy Hour:
Go to http://www.blogger.com/start and go from there.
Congratulations to all who are receiving there referrals. Can’t wait to see all of the beautiful faces.
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:22 pm
Wow, congratulations Lauriesue, how awesome!!! I bet you are just thrilled!! Looking forward to seeing her pictures!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:26 pm
Waitingforpink: I didn’t request older, but I think since I am in my forties that I had to agree to accept an older child. Actually, I’m happy about it. Two-year-olds are the cutest. I’m now waiting for the picture!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:28 pm
MnMommy,
I have a 9/29/05 LID and I’m not banking on a December referral at this point, though I hope your agency is correct. They’d have to get through 35 days just to get to 9/29, so that would be 17.5 days for the next two months which would be on the high end for the number of days they’ve been referring. It’s too close to count on just yet.
Rumor Queen, do you really think that they will get into October with the next two batches????
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:30 pm
Lauriesue (and all!) congrats! We’ve requested a toddler and I’m so excited to read that your daughter is two! Did you request a toddler? Holeeey smokes, do I looooove referral days. Post those pictures! Last month worked so well to show our families (who were beginning to think we’re nuts) that this will be our reality. We all just melted at all the gorgeous babes. My Mom said with a grin “There’s not an ugly one in the bunch!” Her grandma rule is “no ugly grandchildren!” She, of course, thinks all babies are beautiful (she had six of us), especially her grandchildren.
If Hunan stopped IA for a bit, do you think that there might be some now toddlers paper-ready that are just coming up through the system?
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:34 pm
i hope that alot of you guys getting referrals get posts in with the pictures soon! can’t wait to see!
some of us probably won’t be getting anything until the next day or two…but I’m sure we’ll get RQ the links so she can post them. I know I will as soon as I can. :)
lauriesue-
that’s soo awesome. and yes two yr olds are the cutest! can’t wait to see her too!
note to all: everyone please think and believe hard for Mendy…and anyone else still without their TA. :)
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:36 pm
Lauriesue, Congratulations! My daughter is almost 2 (22 months) and so far, this is my favorite age!! She is so much fun!!
Anna
http://www.journeytomollyelizabeth.blogspot.com/
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:38 pm
We got the call! I’ts a girl………….hip hip hurray! She is 10 months old and from the Jiangxi Province. I’m so excited this is AMAZING!
KE
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:41 pm
http://2cuteforwords.blogspot.com/
Now you can see a pic if you aren’t on AUG05 list.
RQ – do you need me to email it or can you put it on your list?
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:41 pm
Congrats again and YES 2 yr olds are awesome!!! I have a 26 month old and he is darling at this age!
Lid 5/15/06
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:41 pm
Happy Hour: She truly is adorable, how exciting for you! Do you have a name yet?
More photos, more photos!
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:41 pm
vtmama- That’s a good point about the toddlers. We requested under 24 months, but with the wait growing we are hoping for the older end of the range. It is such a FUN day!!!!
Mom to 4
LID 5-11-06
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:41 pm
Lauriesue –
Thanks for the info. Having had 2 little ones already I can tell you that yes, 2 year olds are the best. I can’t wait to see her picture!!
I just want to KNOW!
Received email saying package is in hand at my agency, and mine is there, just waiting on details!!
: ) wfp (no longer speaking in complete sentences)
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:47 pm
Happy Hour…ADORABLE!!!
Congrats to all…wanting more pix! :)
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:48 pm
Woo HOOO Happy Hour!!!
Finally a blog with a referral on it so I can put my list out.
You did a great job on the site, too.
And what a beautiful baby. I just love that little grin.
Congrats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:49 pm
Happy Hour, I just saw her, she’s adorable, thanks for sharing!
Congratulations everyone, this is such an exciting day.
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:49 pm
Happy Hour — your daughter is BEAUTIFUL!! And she looks so healthy and happy. Do you have a name picked out?
I am so excited for all of you receiving news today. Please post info/pictures as soon as you can. You give hope to all of us waiting.
More beautiful babies please!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:57 pm
Happy Hour-
I have a link on my website with before and after pictures of babies from Moaming. Thought you might like to check it out.
Laureen
Here it is:
http://www.maoming.homestead.com/Children.html
November 2nd, 2006 at 2:01 pm
HappyHour-
she is soooooooooooooooooooooooo adorable!!!!!!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 2:04 pm
tg-
Any news yet?
g_of_tg-
Happy Birthday!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 2:04 pm
Happy Hour, Your Daughter is precious. I wish all the best
on this amazing journey. I cant wait to check in later to
see more pics of these beautiful babies.
LID 11/18/05
November 2nd, 2006 at 2:05 pm
Gosh, I am sooooooooooooooooooooooooooo praying for CCAA to match up through 9-12-05!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
His,
Mrs. U
LID 9-12-05
http://www.makingahouseahome.blogspot.com
November 2nd, 2006 at 2:12 pm
Happy Hour…
Oh my!!!! She is a doll!!!! Just the cutest little thing…I can’t imagine what you are feeling….
I am so happy for you….what a great way to start November but with it “raining babies”!!!!
~Linda
November 2nd, 2006 at 2:19 pm
Mom2Isabel-Thank you for the birthday wish! My wish right now is that we didn’t have to wait for tomorrow!
November 2nd, 2006 at 2:29 pm
Congratulations to all of us that has or will receive our referrals in the next few days!!!!
Happy Hour – she’s adorable!!
For you who missed the cut-off by a day or two; I know how you’re feeling but you know you’re next! :)
Have a lovely referraliscious (made up that one myself, my first language is not English :) evening everyone!
/Ullis, Sweden
LID 08/10/05 and finally we’re there!!!!!!!!!
November 2nd, 2006 at 2:31 pm
My agency had their 8/30 and 9/13 LID groups logged in in reverse order. The CCAA has declined to correct it. I am hoping that they will try to refer both groups next month, so I am predicting a cut off of 9/13 with the next referral group.
Congratulations to all receiving referrals and TA’s.
November 2nd, 2006 at 2:50 pm
Happy Hour–What a beautiful, darling baby girl. Congratulations. And congratulations to all those receiving referrals today.
November 2nd, 2006 at 3:19 pm
childessinKC,
When did 8/30 get logged in and when did 9/13 get logged in? We were 8/30 logged in on 9/29.
November 2nd, 2006 at 3:31 pm
Hi!
Didn’t read all posts, sorry if I’m saying something somebody already did. And really sorry for sounding a bit pessimistic. But those 15%, aren’t they more or less the same amount of new baby files that would arrive at the CCAA in a week? Or even less. Thinking about the “extra” days (yeah, I know about the CCAA not following calendar months, but still the average time between referrals seem to be about a month) they needed this time to send referrals. Maybe they were just waiting for more files, to be able to send referrals to all of august 24th? Please tell me this theory of mine is nothing but rubbish, RQ!
November 2nd, 2006 at 3:37 pm
Most agencies are saying the batch was complete last week. I haven’t seen where anyone said that they added to the batch.
You theory may have some merit, I can’t rule it completely out, but I don’t think it is the case. I posted this a while back, a synopsis of what we know of how the matching room works. Just adding a week’s worth of work onto a batch isn’t quite so simple.
November 2nd, 2006 at 4:04 pm
Congratulations, all you new parents! I am so glad we finally see the referrals coming. It’s a relief.
As we are logged in 14 Sept I don’t expect to reach the next batch, but hopefully we will have the best Christmas or New years’ gift of all. I can’t wait!
Ullis, btw, are you going to call your agency and ask for a pre view of the pictures etc?
November 2nd, 2006 at 4:07 pm
Bea,
kan man det??? Kanske ska testa imorgon?
Det är nära nu… :)
/Ullis
November 2nd, 2006 at 4:17 pm
Thanks a lot RQ! At least half of what I asked for about my theory, not entirely rubbish but still not very credible. After reading about the matching procedure (I missed that one before), I do agree! Now let’s hope for another 15% next month…!
November 2nd, 2006 at 4:43 pm
Did anyone read “The Wall Street Journal” article (Nov 2nd) entitled “Rules Set To Change on Foreign Adoptions?” It’s about the U.S. ratification of the Hague Convention sometime next year and the possible complications.
November 2nd, 2006 at 4:57 pm
There are a few others of you out there with the same theory as me maybe just wishfull thinking but… September seems to have very few LID’s maybe they wiil get through all of Sept. next month and October in Dec. Jan. a girl can hope can’t she! Congratulations to all of you who got your referrals this week can’t wait to see the pictures!
Jodi
LID10/19/05
November 2nd, 2006 at 4:58 pm
I just want to thank you all for your well wishes and congrats. I’m just in a state of shock still…. This is one of the best days of my life…..
November 2nd, 2006 at 5:13 pm
Wearing a very goofy grin reading all your lovely messages. They give such a boost to us in various stages of the wait. I simply can’t WAIT to see photos!
Happy Hour, your little Zhu Nan is precious! I’m sure you’re floating.
Huge birthday wishes to GofTG, and wanted to thank you and TG for Blue Man Group info; I got fab seats for this Sunday in Anaheim. DH is thrilled and touched that I was already thinking of his b’day (Dec 1st).
Just a few more hours and you’ll all see your boopies! HANG IN THERE!
November 2nd, 2006 at 5:37 pm
Happy Hour- Your little one is adorable!!
TG- I can’t wait to hear your news!
g_of TG- Happy early Birthday!!!
I gotta tell you that today rocks! I was so excited when I saw that they included the 25th.. It actually gives me a lot of hope for a December/January referral with an early Oct LID.
Claire
LID 10/10/05
November 2nd, 2006 at 8:58 pm
Congratulations to all the new familes who received referrals today! So exciting!! It’s even pulled me out of my miserable mood! That’s huge!!
I’m figuring they can get to Sept 21 next time and October 18th for the next group! A girl can hope!!
Snick
lid Oct 31
November 2nd, 2006 at 9:53 pm
RQ:
Your projections and info. keep us same. It gives us an idea of what to expect and I thank you for that.
How can we determine the increase in referrals as 15% because your readership keeps increasing? You have a constantly increasing membership and therefore more of your poll members will be receiving referrals each month. I previously estimated your readership as 26% of those close to referrals (approx 170/approx 650 NSN referrals). With the traffic we see on your site now, it is probably well over this.
Thanks again.
November 2nd, 2006 at 9:53 pm
Of course I meant sane.
November 2nd, 2006 at 10:02 pm
I don’t use different polls in the same equations – each equation is for a single poll. So, yes, the readership keeps growing, but I don’t figure one poll as being bigger than another so the numbers are bigger, that would be flawed logic.
My 15% figure comes off of one poll, the most recent one. All of those votes were made in the same two or three week period of time.
November 3rd, 2006 at 9:14 am
RQ: Thanks for the explanation. Your following just keeps on growing!!!! Hail our Queen!
November 4th, 2006 at 8:31 am
childlessinkc:
what a bummr! i am hoping that with the next batch CCAA will work well into the middle of the September too! Of course, if they do…I will be running around, especially upon receiving the news, as if I had just had a labotomy. :)
LID 9/13/05