Rumors and Stats
First a Request: A couple of people emailed me the September 7th rumor this morning. Could someone please email me the next LID’s your agency has? Thanks.
If you look at the record of when referrals have come and how many days have been included then you quickly see there doesn’t seem to be a lot of rhyme or reason to it. There are some patterns you can see after the fact, but nothing that allows you to be able to predict anything.
The one predictive thing that seems to work is when I use our polls and do it based on number of LID’s per referral batch. Our polls are obviously not 100%, but there is good reason to believe that they are within three or four percent of being accurate percentage wise.
We keep hoping that they will raise the number of referrals per month, but so far that has not happened. We thought it happened last month, but then we discovered that a lot of people did not get referrals and that put us back into the same general window as previous months. If they get between the 5th and 11th then that is pretty much status quo for previous months. And since the 10th and 11th are weekend days, the window is probably actually between the 5th and 9th.
If the cut off date is in that window and if the CCAA holds to the same number of referrals per batch then I believe the following batch cut-off dates will probably be within a week of: September 28, Oct 13, and Oct 26.
I’m not giving any of the current cut-off date rumors anything higher than an R3 right now - multiple conflicting rumors. It’s not looking good for the 12th and beyond, and it’s looking pretty good for the 7th and earlier. But nothing is set in stone yet. It didn’t look good for the 25th last month, either.
And I will say it one more time. If you can’t handle the rumors then please stay off of the blog. There are spots you can go in the forum if you want support, but the blog is not the place for you to suggest that the entire focus of the blog is somehow wrong. I don’t come into your living room and tell you what you can and cannot talk about. Consider this blog my living room, I love having guests and you are welcome to stop in and visit anytime but I do ask that you not come in and cause a ruckus or start telling everyone we are wrong to be talking about what we are talking about. So far LunLun has made two comments, the first was to ask that people not talk about quilts and ladybugs and the second was to ask that we not talk about rumors. If she has nothing positive to contribute and only wants to change things then it really does seem to me that this is just not the best fit for her.
The internet is full of places to go to find like minded people. Telling her (or anyone else) to go somewhere else is not being mean or “juvenile”, it’s just being practical. If this is not a good fit for you then find a place that is. I completely understand that the rumor rollercoaster is not for everyone, and that is perfectly okay. There are plenty of places out there that aren’t for me, and I left them all quietly without asking that the hundreds of people who were comfortable there change the entire focus of their group so that I could be comfortable there.
Okay, enough of that and onto something more constructive.
Several of you have asked for another daily LID poll. The latest daily poll goes all the way to October 28th, and if the CCAA only makes it into the 5th-11th window then the poll we already have could take us through three more batches. Plus, I was really hoping to get more votes on our monthly poll that is up now so I’d like to leave it up a bit longer. Let’s see how far this batch gets - if they get to the 15th or beyond then we will do another daily poll, but if they don’t then I really think the current poll is taking us as far as we can hope to get in the next two or three months. But I will wait to see how far this batch gets before deciding for sure.
November 28th, 2006 at 12:02 pm
Well said RQ, I totally agree with you! I hope things will pick up, and its hard to read bad rumors but its true, no one is forcing anyone to come to this site! AND it is yours, so keep up the awesome work!!!!!
November 28th, 2006 at 12:05 pm
RQ, thanks for keeping the info. coming, I truly appreciate it. Looking at the numbers already on the latest poll this morning, it occurred to me that September—the month we all figured was quite light—really isn’t all that much lighter than Oct. and Nov…. so as much as I’m hoping the CCAA gets beyond Sept. 7, seems to me that cut-off is looking slightly less dismal than it did when I thought Sept. was a really light month for LIDs. Am I missing something? Well, I guess Sept. suddenly beefed up because more Sept. families are checking this blog, so maybe Oct. and Nov. will eventually appear to be even more humongous as the months go by and we get closer to those referrals.
Here’s hoping for a good solid 4-R rumor soon.
November 28th, 2006 at 12:06 pm
Better yet, here’s hoping referrals land pronto and the CCAA is way past the Sept. 7 projection.
November 28th, 2006 at 12:09 pm
RQ, do you think there’s any significance to the fact that in your yearly poll, the average # of LIDs per month in 2006 is about half the average number for the remaining months of 2005? Is there really any evidence that fewer dossiers were logged in this year than last year, or is it just that the 2006 people aren’t here yet, so aren’t represented in the poll? It’s not as if the numbers for 2006 drop off as the months go by — there are 197 for January 06, and 183 for September 06 — which makes it seem as if maybe there are just as many September 06 people here as there are January 06 people. I guess I’m wondering if you’ve done this long enough now that you see a pattern of more people responding to polls as their LID month gets closer & they discover this site, or if the numbers stay relatively steady over time for a particular month. I’m looking for any glimmer of hope there may be for an August 06 LID…
November 28th, 2006 at 12:15 pm
I think many people arrive shortly after they are done paperchasing and then they back off and only come in a few times a month for a while and then when they start getting close to referral they are here every day or almost every day.
I do not think you can look at two months that are four or more months apart and compare them to each other. However, you can see that (for example) March is a good bit bigger than the months around it and July is a good bit smaller than the months around it.
November 28th, 2006 at 12:20 pm
It’s so exciting to watch in anticipation all of you who are SO close to receiving your referrals & wish you the best! At this point I’m living vicariously through you and share in the thrill of the ride! Best of luck in the upcoming days! Waiting behind you, in the Spring!
~kate
November 28th, 2006 at 12:24 pm
Hi, I’m new to this blog, but we’ve been in the adoption process for almost two years. :(
RQ, you mentioned that the 10th and 11th were weekend days, which I had never realized before. Our LID is 9/10/05. Is that even possible? Is our agency wrong? Did someone mess up?
I have an email out to our agency (I’m trying not to bug them too much - I think they’re sick of me calling them) but I wonder if you could give me your take on this. Thanks!
November 28th, 2006 at 12:33 pm
Many of us have been looking over the LID poll numbers this morning. One factor we cannot figure in is the people who should have received their referrals last time, but were skipped. Has anyone in that group (boy, do we hurt with you!) been given any information regarding what your “new” LID’s may be? I hope you can be included in this group.
Just one more thing…I plan to make a quilt out of ladybug fabrics for my future grandchild! But I won’t bore you with details. (`~`) Everyone deals with this wait differently. Keeping busy helps.
November 28th, 2006 at 12:42 pm
I’m really looking forward to the date when my LID makes it onto the polls. It will feel like another milestone has been reached. ;-)
Surprise us CCAA!
12/14/05
November 28th, 2006 at 12:45 pm
Hear Hear, RQ! There is a reason why you are Queen of your domain. I’m sooo glad you put out this post. No matter how much support lunlun needed you don’t not tell the owner of the blog what it “should” be. Keep the info coming - We are getting closer to our LID of 10/9. Hopefully it won’t take another 3 months to get there!!
November 28th, 2006 at 12:50 pm
I hate to sound so excited about the Sep 7 LID when a lot more people are past that date. I just can’t help to jump up and down cause our LID is Sep 7. WE JUST MADE IT!!!! Hope the number doesnt change to the 6th.
Deb
http://www.bringinghomeolivia.blogspot.com
November 28th, 2006 at 12:53 pm
RQ you do a great job!
Everyone has good and bad days. I happen to be having a bad one today. I couldn’t agree with you more! We all come here of our own free choice.
I really wouldn’t know anything significant if it wasn’t for you. THANKS!!!
I am really confused about jdb’s question if 2006 is looking smaller than 2005? Was that question? I have wondered that myself. I didn’t understand the answer either. My tummy says it is lunch time. Maybe I just need to eat and reread it all later.
November 28th, 2006 at 12:56 pm
Hi again !!!!
We totally agree with you RQ….
… if somebody don’t want rumors…. this is the only page:
http://www.china-ccaa.org/frames/index_unlogin_en.jsp
thanks RQ and RK for keeping the info !!!
Newfiedeb: Hi from Mallorca in Spain…. also with a LID Sep 7 !!! hope too the number doesnt change to the 6th…. see you soon in China !!!
November 28th, 2006 at 1:00 pm
Hello!
My LID is Sept 7 and I have kept myself busy until this week. These last days are the longest. Do you know if anyone has received pictures this week?
November 28th, 2006 at 1:07 pm
Just had to comment. We aren’t even paperchasing or planning to adopt again, but I check back here often just to check rumors and lend support where (if) I can. All of you who are waiting are SO lucky to have RQ. When I was DTC in 2000 and 2003, we didn’t have anything like this. We relied on our DTC groups and rumors on various boards. DTC groups are great for support, encouragement, and shopping/travel ideas, but RQ is a truly a gift for the waiting parent! I remember the pain of my ever-increasing first wait (a bunch of us considered flying to Beijing to volunteer our time processing paperwork at CCAA) but it really doesn’t compare to what you are all going through now.
November 28th, 2006 at 1:22 pm
Mallorca: Do you have a website or blog? That would be cool if we actually ended up in the same area of China. It would be nice to meet considering I’m from Canada and your from Spain. Post your web address if you have one.
Deb
http://www.bringinghomeolivia.blogspot.com
Any other Sep 7 LID’s in here??
November 28th, 2006 at 1:27 pm
RQ - I think you hit on an important point here….”based on number of LID’s per referral batch”
This is a supply and demand thing. Each month the CCAA is “supplied” with x number of babies suitable for match. Each month, CCAA matches those until number of babies = 0. The date range filled is purely a function of how many LID’s to how many babies within any given date range.
Now if there were only a way to figure out the worldwide number of LID’s within a given time frame we would have a lock on half the picture. Then the only variable would be how many babies are coming into the funnel.
Simple puzzle until you throw in there is no way to determine the number of people with LID’s within any given date range with much accuracy, any lack of efficiency in CCAA’s system of matching or systemic paperwork problems with a given agency etc and sugar coat that with the highly charged emotional state of all involved.
This rocks! Without this place to vent and queery and probe and suppose most of us would probably end up in the loony bin for the remainder of the wait.
Good luck to all for the shortest wait and the the lowest bloodpressure possible given the obvious.
A.G. LID 11/14/06
November 28th, 2006 at 1:33 pm
I was wondering based on our polls (or RQs) what were the numbers from the previous referrals, ie May referred x numbers, June referred x july x and so on. Or can someone point me to were to find this.
Because I’m like most I think the numbers reflect referral cut off and not days.
Thanks,
Hope
November 28th, 2006 at 1:38 pm
Your predictions seem to be what our agency is also saying for predictions so I think unless something change that might be what it is for the next three months.
I also what you to know that rumors are rumors and you are correct if you can not take it in the right frame than you need to not put yourself through this.
I have sat down and deterimned that if they keep at this speed we are looking at next SEPT or OCT for our February referral so anything that changes that is good but I am prepared for a fall referral. I think it would be good for everyone to get a date in mine at this speed and then hope and pray for a sooner date
November 28th, 2006 at 1:47 pm
RQ and all:
I read this site regularly; I have never posted a comment here or anywhere on the web for that matter but today I am compelled to do so. Last weekend, it seemed that the world flooded Thanksgiving greetings and words of well deserved appreciation for RQ. Today, she is likely feeling less appreciated. All I can say is, anyone who goes on to a site that’s called Rumour Queen, should know it’s about sharing the little bit of information they have. Kudos to you RQ. Remember that there is a strong silent mass out there really appreciating the work you’re doing.
We’re LID Sept 7 and we have been told by our Ottawa agency that we’re very likely in this upcoming referral batch.
November 28th, 2006 at 1:57 pm
Last month there were several 9/9 ers saying their agencies told them they would for sure be in this batch. Where are you folks and have your agencies changed their tune? Just spoke with my agency…nothing.
Thank you RQ and all who share!
LID 9/9/05
November 28th, 2006 at 2:01 pm
Hi again DEB - NEWFIEDEB
First excuse my english …. i know it’s bad…
We visit your website …. jejeje …. When when when??? …. that’s the same we wonder all the day …. you are waiting for Olivia and we are waiting for Ona … maybe this week …. it’s 29 now in China…
It would be very very very nice to meet in China … in January of course !!!
This is our website:
http://www.mallorcaweb.net/esquiterell
We send to you all the luck of the world !!! …. and We know little Olivia will be with you very very very bery soon !!!
Kisses from the island of Mallorca Tomeu, Agnès, Pau, Lluc …. and little Ona in China for a little time…
November 28th, 2006 at 2:01 pm
skivideoguy - I feel pretty comfortable that our polls give us an accurate (to within three or four percent) picture, percentage wise, of the way the LID’s are distributed. So while it might be nice to have exact numbers from the CCAA, we don’t really need them.
Our biggest unknown has to do with the number of dossiers for babies that arrive at the CCAA each month. We are told that the CCAA is working to increase this number. If they do that then we should see things start to speed up. So far we have not seen that. Some agencies insist we are about to while other agencies tell us we will continue to see more of the same.
November 28th, 2006 at 2:07 pm
I’m so so so frustrated with the wait and the CCAA’s slowness. I just don’t understand the “purpose” of slowing down. We all know that there are many orphanages that are not working with the CCAA, and we know that many of the ones that are, having a lot of children waiting….and waiting…The longer this takes, the longer many children have to wait in not-so-great conditions. I worry about their medical needs, getting enough food, keeping warm, bug bites, worms, ear infections. OK, I’ll stop now.
It’s just that I am LID 5/18/06 - this means my little one is AT LEAST 18mos-2years away from being home. This is just awful.
November 28th, 2006 at 2:09 pm
RQ - I looked at the poll results and was a bit suprised by the variance in LID volume per month within the poll dates. I would have thought demand would not vary as much on a monthly basis. Hey, if your within a couple percent, that’s fantastic.
I’m planning on enjoying the wait and using the time to prepare and learn as much as I can about China knowing I’ve done my part as fast as I could have done it and now it’s up to them to do their’s as fast as they can do it.
I’ve enjoyed the site so far since finding it a few days after our 10/16/06 DTC and will visit often, especially around batch time.
Maybe we can all bug our agencies for info about new orphanages coming into the CCAA network etc. to glean some data on supply.
Rock on!
A.G.
November 28th, 2006 at 2:13 pm
agnesitomeu-
Espero que podamos encontrarnos en China. Visite vuestra pagina de WEB y vi que vuetra fecha de asignacion es el 7 de septiembre. Ojala que si! La mia es el 30 de agosto. Podria tan divertido si podriamos estar en China al mismo tiempo.
Benediciones!
Laureen
http://www.babysites.com/sites/laureenmary
PS Esculpame por los errores que yo cometi.
November 28th, 2006 at 2:22 pm
I agree- we haven’t started paperchasing for number 2. Number 1 has only been home 9 months- but I come here often to see what is up and read the rumors. I am in agony with you- and I try to send “happy thoughts”
Today I can actually add something- my agency once told me that CCAA does work some Saturdays- so the LID on a Saturday might be right.
I hope tons of you make the cutoff
Love,
Mary
http://whiddenphillipsadoption.blogspot.com/
November 28th, 2006 at 2:26 pm
Thank you very much Laureen …. your spanish is very very very good… I visit too your website and I see your travel in Spanish ….. now all are waiting for our travel to China… our travel to our dreams… this will be nice to meet in China with our babys…. I believe, I believe, I believe…
Good luck and see you in China very very soon !!!
LID 09.07.05.
November 28th, 2006 at 2:28 pm
RumourQueen, I am new to this blog (3-days) and stumbled on it when I revisited the forecasting site. I love your blog! People like LunLun just get caught up in themselves, and you are right about it being as simple as being a poor match for this site. However, for me it is a GREAT match. I have managed to disconnect and keep myself totally busy until last week when I realized that I might actually get my referral in the next week or two (LID 8-31-05). Now I am obsessed beyond obsession and your site is just the fix I need. THANK YOU!!!
So as not to be too “caught up in myself” I will add that our agency emailed us that they are expecting this month’s referrals to contain the last two weeks in August (38 in all). Now what makes that interesting is that in the past they have NEVER sent ANY indication of how many would be coming. They play it safe and keep expectations low. They don’t even like to commit to any coming in at all. Soooo . . . if they feel safe in going on record that two weeks will be included, I’m wondering if that can be interpreted as a possiblity that there may be several more weeks.
November 28th, 2006 at 2:31 pm
I wanted to say thanks to RQ for what she does. I am LID November 2005 and am definately finding this wait hard. It would be really hard to have any idea when referrals were to arrive and what the cut-off date would be without this site!!
I went through SARS waiting for my first daughter and believe me there was NO information available about the ‘when CCAA would resume adoptions when they understandably closed their doors’ in 2003. So, I would rather have ’some news’, because I have experienced the ‘No news’ wait before!! I really hope the cut-off this month is at least Sept 12th!! For obvious reasons, I wish it was more…
I know this month must be twice as hard for RQ given that her LID is in this month. Hang in there!!
November 28th, 2006 at 2:41 pm
Many moons since my Spanish classes with Rosa, let me see how this goes:
Agnes, I hope that we will meet when we are in China. I visited your web page and see that you have an LID of Sept. 7th. What luck, mine is August 30. Wouldn’t it be fun if we get to go to Chine at the same time,
Good Greetings,
OK, spanish teacher Laureen, let me know how I did. I am sure I would not be able to write it myself without some refreshing, but hopefully the translation wasn’t too bad.
ADE
November 28th, 2006 at 2:44 pm
Oh My Gosh, Has this been the longest day ever!!!! When are the referral coming. We are up next and we are almost there. We have been waiting for 15 months and were missed by one day last referrals. This week has been so hard, my patience in running very low today. Where are you referrals??????? Bring on the good news….Somebody??????
Allyson
LID 8/26
http://www.babyjellybeans.com/web/do/site/home?ID=69261
November 28th, 2006 at 2:52 pm
ADE-
Excelente!!!!
:-)
Acausey-
You are not alone. There are several of us that are next. It is drawing to a close. Check out the new post RQ just wrote….referrals on Thursday!
Woo Hoo!!!
Laureen
http://www.babysites.com/sites/laureenmary
November 28th, 2006 at 2:59 pm
M2I,
see you on the next list
ADE
November 28th, 2006 at 3:11 pm
Lauren where is that post, I did not see it?
Thanks allyson
November 28th, 2006 at 3:22 pm
To Acausey,
When I read your message, my heart hurt. I can’t imagine you were missed by one day.
Yvonne
November 28th, 2006 at 3:24 pm
Acausey-
Go to the top of this page and click on the purple word Thursday. It will bring you to the latest post.
see you there!
November 28th, 2006 at 3:27 pm
Hi RQ
I guess those of us in Nov really want a day poll as we want your insight as to how you think the flow will go outwards i.e. your predictions after Oct 26th!! I know that sounds far away to all you Sept and Oct LIDs but for those us just creeping up, its of course a vital bit of our estimating.
We all have our own views but would love to know yours!
But I do agree there is no point doing it until we know where we stand right now.
Thanks again for everything
November 28th, 2006 at 4:03 pm
RQ - good for you for your response.
As for your comment:
I think many people arrive shortly after they are done paperchasing and then they back off and only come in a few times a month for a while and then when they start getting close to referral they are here every day or almost every day.
That may be the NORM, but I’ve been here daily for weeks now and I’m only LID Oct 11 2006! I can’t see me NOT being here any day soon, within the next 18(fingers crossed) - 36(gulp) months… Keep it coming!
N
November 28th, 2006 at 4:29 pm
RQ, I have a question about the batch that will come after this one. If the current batch gets to the 7th, why wouldn’t the next batch include 9/29? If you look at the numbers in the poll, the batch to arrive on Thursday would include just about 200 families from 8/26-9/7. If you included 9/29 in the following (December) batch, it would be virtually the same size as this batch…about 200. If you don’t include 9/29, if would be substantially smaller (under 140 families). With a LID of 9/29, I selfishly want to be next ;^). What do you think the odds are if we only get to 9/7 this time?
November 28th, 2006 at 5:20 pm
Skivideoguy:
Our DTC/LIDs are pretty close. We were DTC 10/17/06 and logged in 11/13/06. Looks like we’re in the same boat, so to speak.
Happy waiting.
-Ray
http://defreses.blogspot.com
November 28th, 2006 at 6:38 pm
sarahs mom~
I agree with your timeline completely. We are LID 2/13/06 and I have prepared myself for at least an Oct 07 referral. If it goes any further we could get caught up in the CNY 2008 delays for travel. Oct would put us at 20 mos LID to referral. I cannot believe how long this is taking. Things had just started slowing down when we submitted our dossier :-(
November 28th, 2006 at 7:32 pm
I am in complete awe of all of you who are so close to receiving your referrals. I am new here, and I only just received my LID today(11/14/06).I can only imagine what the next 18+ months are going to be like. I wish many blessings to everyone, wether you are preparing to see your baby for the first time, or settling in for months and months of dreaming, waiting, and praying.
November 29th, 2006 at 11:27 am
Does anybody know when CNY starts? Our agency sent an email today saying to expect referral on Friday and that we will not be traveling until after CNY. I thought it was not until Feb sometime which makes me wonder why we would have to wait so long.
Deb
http://www.bringinghomeolivia.blogspot.com