November 30th Analysis - take two
First let’s talk a bit about when referrals may arrive next.
Traditionally the CCAA likes to send referrals out just before they leave for their CNY holiday. I believe this would mean they are likely to send them out somewhere around February 14th. Am I sure of this? No, I’m guessing, don’t write it in your calendar.
To try to back up from that date, the current referrals were sent on 11/28. There are 78 days between the dates, or 2 months and 17 days.
This would mean that they would need to have 26 days between referral batches if they want to do this evenly from here on out. Odds are that they won’t do it evenly, but I do think we have enough of a precedent to expect that referrals will come out on the quicker side of the windows for the next couple of months. Take a look at the months before CNY last year when they had spans of 28, 25, and 23 days between batches.
With that being said I think we can hope for the next batch to be mailed right around Christmas or shortly thereafter.
As for how I think the next two months will go, I pulled out my good and bad case scenario again. For those who are new, I’m not going to tempt the fates by calling anything a worst case scenario, so it’s a bad case scenario, thank-you-very-much.
| Good Case | Bad Case | |
| Late Dec Referrals | 10/9/05 | 9/28/05 |
| Late Jan Referrals | 10/25/05 | 10/18/05 |
November 30th, 2006 at 11:13 am
RQ,
If they only got to 9/28 with the next batch, wouldn’t that be significantly smaller than the batch that is arriving today…by a third even. do you know how a smaller batch would compare to the batches we have been receiving for the last 3 or 4 months?
November 30th, 2006 at 11:13 am
thank you. I was starving.
November 30th, 2006 at 11:17 am
Isn’t there usually a “surprise” group of referrals around CNY? In the past, when CNY fell in Jan, there was a regular batch, and then just before they left for holiday a “surprise” batch…I’ll have to go back to old yahoo groups, but I think in 2004 there were a few “surprise” batches that year!
My guess would be : a batch end of Dec, end of Jan, mid Feb, and then…???
November 30th, 2006 at 11:19 am
I hate to even mention the other bad case senario. They could just do 2 batches between now and CNY, 39 or so days apart, that’s not what I think is most likely, but I’m not sure it’s entirely out the realm of the possible is it?
November 30th, 2006 at 11:21 am
Last month I put my guess in at Bright Outlook for Sept 8 followed by Oct 8. I don’t see a reason to change my guess at this point and am hoping they get that far as I think it will take a LONG time to get through the rest of Oct and Nov. (Hope I’m wrong of course)
November 30th, 2006 at 11:24 am
With an LID of 11/22/05, I think I will go into hibernation mode. Will someone wake me when November referrals are announced?
November 30th, 2006 at 11:26 am
Thanks for the analysis. For us (LID 11/28/05), even your bad case scenario isn’t all that bad. We were thinking an April referral before this morning and with the 9/8 cutoff I thought I may need to push that out to a May referral. I’ll keep it at April for now.
November 30th, 2006 at 11:26 am
The good case scenario looks really good to me; I’m guessing it’ll be somewhere in between, but who knows and shouldn’t we start focusing soon on those lucky mama and papas who are getting their referrals. I love this site RQ. I am so addicted to it and we barely are even into the process; although I’ve been here for about 6 months or more I think. Kathryn
November 30th, 2006 at 11:34 am
Dear RQ,
I know you are not ready to put a lid day poll. But I’m soooo frustated at the moment. I keep a excel sheet with the number of lid and make prediction with a 200 lid batch.
If CCAA keeps the rhythm by end december we will reach 9 october (202 lids). By end january we will reach october the 25th… And then I’m guessing… with a nov 9 lid all I know is that there is 2 weekends between 10/25 and 11/9 and that there are around 30 lids for 26-27-28 october… Please let me fill my table with the days just before us… Please, please, please :-)
November 30th, 2006 at 11:36 am
Ooooh RQ, I like it!! That would indeed give me a Valentine’s Referral as I am currently planning. What a CNY to rememeber!!!!!
Congrats to all the new parents and Thanks RQ! You are probably up next!!!!
Alyson
LID Oct 26. 2005
November 30th, 2006 at 11:42 am
Thanks RQ. This jives with what DH and I have been computing. We are estimating our referral will arrive late June or late July.
Oh boy is this going to be a loooong cold winter!
LID 12/20/05
November 30th, 2006 at 11:43 am
I agree about the batch before Chinese New Year. In the past few years, Chinese New Year was in January so don’t know if that matters. That sure beats no referrals in February. Feb 16 is a great day to mail referrals.
November 30th, 2006 at 11:58 am
Hi Calamity4e,
My husband and I are also LID 12/20/05 and are prepared, mentally, for a summer referral. Anything earlier would be a wonderful surprise.
November 30th, 2006 at 12:00 pm
How can one go from being so sad to pure excitement in the matter of minutes? I never considered we might see her face right around Christmas. I just hope they don’t “surprise” us by only doing one batch b/t now and CNY!
LID 9/9/05
November 30th, 2006 at 12:02 pm
Just saw on the CCAA site that the cut off is Sept 8th. Didn’t read through all the post to see if everone has seen this. If you have SORRY LOL.
COngrats to ALL the new mommies and daddies!
jill in DE
who is STILL waiting on TA…
LOI July 28th
November 30th, 2006 at 12:05 pm
Okay, just saw where RQ posted. LOL. I think my brian is mush.!
jill in de
November 30th, 2006 at 12:05 pm
RQ - I noticed something a little odd. The nubmer of days between referrals this year and approximately the same time last year have been the same for 3 months. E.g.
10/3/05 - 32 days 9/26/06 - 32 days
11/10/05 - 38 days 11/2/06 - 38 days
12/8/05 - 28 days 11/30/06 - 28 days
What do you think? Coincidence or something more?
PT
November 30th, 2006 at 12:07 pm
Hi Calamity4e & Mom2livvy: I am now in the mind set for a summer referral also. But I do love the idea someone suggested about hibernating for winter and waking up when the flowers bloom
12/14/05
November 30th, 2006 at 12:10 pm
TAB
2/16/07 referrals would be awesome for 2 reasons. 1) We’d likely be included with a 10/27/05 LID and 2) It’s the third anniversary of when we met DD#1.
Of course, anything *earlier* would be just as good.
PT
November 30th, 2006 at 12:13 pm
Being one of the October 8, 2005 LID’ers, I am hoping and praying the October 8 date is included next time! What a Christmas present that would be! And I would travel around my boys birthdays, what a birthday present for them. Please, please get to the 8th.
Have a great day everyone.
Congratulations to all the new parents!
Sharon A
November 30th, 2006 at 12:14 pm
I agree with the hibernation idea - I’ll go get my jammies and fuzzy slippers.
November 30th, 2006 at 12:22 pm
I am so hoping that RQ is right. With out October 7th LID it would mean probably being in China for my birthday on Feb 1 and our wedding anniversary on Feb 16.
Linda
LID 10/7/05
November 30th, 2006 at 12:24 pm
pettrout,
If that pattern continued…..The next referrals would be here on Christmas Eve! What a WONDERFUL present THAT would be for so many families! I hope you are on to something.
November 30th, 2006 at 12:27 pm
Luna and petrout,
That would be so amazingly wonderful! I stand in awe of all of you numbers people who figure these things out!
LID 9/9
November 30th, 2006 at 12:33 pm
I’ll hibernate with you other Dec folks. I am so happy for all of you that in this time!!!
Hooray!!!!!!!!
November 30th, 2006 at 12:38 pm
Congratulations to all the folks that are going to be seeing their children’s faces.
As for me, I’m joining the December 2005 LID hibernation!!
12/14/05
November 30th, 2006 at 12:40 pm
RQ,
I would like to ask a question about referral and travel times.
I am a 10-17-05 LID and knew it was a slim chance to get a December referral and have always tought that we would be a Jan referral so I am fine with even your Bad case scenerios. Here is my question. If I was to get a referral in December, wouldnt travel be right around mid February which would put us at Chinese New Year. I have already heard that flights are full and prices to fly are through the roof. So, my question is, do you think travel times between the december and January referrals will be about the same or close? My thought is that if you are lucky with a december referral you may get to travel before CNY but most will be after the celebrations which will put them in late Feb to early March. With a January referral travel should be around mid March which would be close to when many of the December referral people will travel. What do you think? Also, do you think Jan referrals may have a longer wait for travel due to December people being bumped back? I hope not, but either way I am happy with a January referral.
I am so happy for all of you this morning. Please post pics. Also, there is a family with our agency (small– tiny Southern California agency) that got their acceptance back within a day of referrals last month, got their TA within 2 (or so) weeks and will be leaving for CHina on December 6. That is such a quick turn around from referral to travel. Only a little over a month!!! WOW!!! I hope it will be the same for all of us.
Congrats to all!!!!
Christy
10-17-05
November 30th, 2006 at 1:35 pm
I just put our LID on the “forcast” site and got July 4th ‘07
Sounds pretty good, July 4th! That will keep me going for another month :)
Once again, congrats to all those new familes!! Can’t wait to see those precious babes!
November 30th, 2006 at 1:49 pm
what is the forcast site? What is your LID wearewaiting? I would like to calculate ours.
November 30th, 2006 at 2:09 pm
Out LID is 12-28-05, the site is http://chinaadoptionforecast.com/
November 30th, 2006 at 2:11 pm
With your good case or bad case scenerio we are in January with a 10/17/05 LID!!!! I’ll take your prediction and get excited for a belated Christmas present :-)
Stefanie
LID 10/17/05
November 30th, 2006 at 2:19 pm
yeah, we are LID 10/10/05, so it looks like under any scenario we’re comfortably in for a Jan referral. Although, I am still hoping for the miracle scenario that we squeak by in Dec, since predictions are for 10/8 or 10/9 cutoff. but, after this long of a wait, what’s another 30 days really? We’re down to less than a 60 day wait even in the event of a ‘bad case’ scenario… That is not too bad!!! finally!!!!
November 30th, 2006 at 2:31 pm
Bahamma Mama, we are the same LID. I have noticed a few more of us 10-17 ers out there recently but it is by no means a huge day. I feel pretty good about a Jan referral. What do you think?
Christy
10-17-05
November 30th, 2006 at 2:53 pm
RQ
Do you think the end of Dec. referrals will travel before or after CNY?
Thank you,
Meg
November 30th, 2006 at 3:00 pm
I think it depends on when referrals arrive and how quickly your travel group gets their acceptances back and how quickly the CCAA gets your TA’s back.
If the planets line up just right you could travel before CNY.
For instance, one of the agencies got all of their 11/2 referal group’s acceptance letters back to the CCAA the next day and they will fly out about 4.5 weeks after they received their referral. But that is pretty rare.
I know that’s not the answer you want, it’s hard to make plans this way, isn’t it?
If you have an agency that lets everyone take their time getting acceptances back then you can probably pretty reliably plan on traveling after CNY. Otherwise it could go either way if referrals get here early enough.
November 30th, 2006 at 3:37 pm
Thank you MClark and RQ for that info regarding Dec. referrals/Feb travels! I was getting ready to post the question to my case manager but just wanted to check here first to see if it had been asked yet! Whoo Hoo for RQ! :-) I found a t-shirt for a baby girl the other day I wanted to buy for RQ’s little one coming home… It said, “The Queen’s princess!” :-) Very cute! Our agency isn’t one that putters around with folks taking their time with their acceptance letters. They want that stuff in asap so they can go ahead and get our TA! So, banking on a Dec referral, and looking towards the possibility of a Feb travel date. RQ’… one last question… can we see the LID’s of 9/9-the end of Sept? the poll is only showing 9/18-Oct. would like to see what it looks like from 9/9-the end of Sept! Thank you!
November 30th, 2006 at 4:04 pm
All I did was grab a screen shot from the Poll Results page so it would be handy to see the dates around the likely next cut off.
You can go into the poll results page and see any poll that I’ve ever done (and a few that were done elsewhere)
November 30th, 2006 at 4:17 pm
Awwww, RQ, why, oh why, couldn’t I be in the good case for December?? :-)
We are LID on 10/10/05 so it would be great, but, I’m not holding my breath at this point. However, it’s kinda cool that we are officially being included in the RQ’s good case/bad case chart!! ;p
Claire
LID 10/10/05
November 30th, 2006 at 4:24 pm
Ditto Claire! We are 10\9 and it is sooo exciting to be potentially next! I hate being right on the cusp though. I was hoping to avoid getting missed by one day (yeah right!) in the next referral group but I’ll take whatever they give me…
November 30th, 2006 at 4:27 pm
RQ…. I’m sure everyone and their dog has done this — but I was getting discouraged looking at the polls… Sept. has some big days… But, adding the numbers of the last 3 batches, actually going from Sept. 9-29 isn’t as hard as I thought… there is only 198 so far on your poll.. as opposed to 213 in Oct.’s group and 201 in this last one… so, phew… maybe we WILL make Dec!!! ;-)
November 30th, 2006 at 6:50 pm
Hi,
I have been doing my own analysis for 3 months now and have hit the nail on the head 3 months. Here is what I did.
Using RQ polls. I assumed that there were only 1/3 of the families who were waiting that participated in the polls. This was a WAG.
Our agency who NEVER speculates about anything said CCAA places about 600 NSN children a month.
SOOOO — I looked at the RQ pools and counted who the next 200 families would take us to. That was the date I expected to see as the cust off and I have been exactly right 3 months now.
Could not have done it with out you RQ.
November 30th, 2006 at 9:41 pm
My first post! RQ’s analysis made me happy enough to say something after being a lurker for the past 3-4 months.
As a 10/26/05 LIDer, I am mentally prepared for March, hoping for February, and will be SHOCKED if I squeeze in in Jan.
My way of calculating (completely unscientific, of course), has been to count the # of days of LID days ahead of mine, and divide by the # of days of LIDs matched in the most recent round. I can say that in the last 13 months, my virtual wait has gone from the original 6-7 quoted by my small- to mid-CA agency, to 24 months, to 18, to 9, etc. Finally, with the Sept matches, things started looking better. Not the most scientific approach, I know, but I was faced with some nasty info that made me face reality at times…
When we first started waiting last fall, it was easy…the back-to-school activities for my daughter and the holidays kept me busy. As the referrals slowed down, I was very frustrated. By March of ‘06, when there were only 5 days of LIDs matched, I had to emotionally unplug and walk away for a few months. I had such hopes that that would be the catch-up month, and when it was the worst ever, I realized that it was going to be a LONG time before I was going anywhere! By July or August, I was searching for info again (my agency doesn’t say ANYTHING until the referrals are all made to parents, then the waiting families get a msg with NO predictions, no promises, etc.). In some ways, I appreciate this, because I know when they say something it is fact and I can trust it. If I want to know anything else, I come here! I appreciate the info, and stay as emotionally attached or detached as I need to be at the time…
Congrats to all the new families!
December 1st, 2006 at 11:40 am
Christy(kcbock)…I definately believe January…though, honestly, I won’t be devestated if it’s February. I’ve waited so long that I’d be happy with either. Though I still have TATER/Maria’s statement of our LID making it in December in the back of my mind :-) I’m just glad to finally be so close!!!!
Stefanie
LID 10/17/05
December 1st, 2006 at 2:38 pm
Cant-sleep-at-all…. I took am ready for an emotional sebatical. With a LID of 3/13/06 - we won’t receive referral for another year - did it help taking time off the site? I think I really need to as I’ve been reading for months and chiming in this month - my family needs a break -
Stacy
December 4th, 2006 at 1:14 pm
pgh,
using your method, can you tell us what the next 3 months look like?
PJM