Comments on: November 30th Analysis - take two

By: PJ Mama

PJ Mama — Mon, 04 Dec 2006 18:14:41 +0000

pgh,
using your method, can you tell us what the next 3 months look like?

PJM

By: waitingforsam

waitingforsam — Fri, 01 Dec 2006 19:38:46 +0000

Cant-sleep-at-all…. I took am ready for an emotional sebatical. With a LID of 3/13/06 - we won’t receive referral for another year - did it help taking time off the site? I think I really need to as I’ve been reading for months and chiming in this month - my family needs a break -
Stacy

By: bahama_mama_llama

bahama_mama_llama — Fri, 01 Dec 2006 16:40:42 +0000

Christy(kcbock)…I definately believe January…though, honestly, I won’t be devestated if it’s February. I’ve waited so long that I’d be happy with either. Though I still have TATER/Maria’s statement of our LID making it in December in the back of my mind :-) I’m just glad to finally be so close!!!!

Stefanie
LID 10/17/05

By: can't_sleep_at_all

can't_sleep_at_all — Fri, 01 Dec 2006 02:41:35 +0000

My first post! RQ’s analysis made me happy enough to say something after being a lurker for the past 3-4 months.

As a 10/26/05 LIDer, I am mentally prepared for March, hoping for February, and will be SHOCKED if I squeeze in in Jan.

My way of calculating (completely unscientific, of course), has been to count the # of days of LID days ahead of mine, and divide by the # of days of LIDs matched in the most recent round. I can say that in the last 13 months, my virtual wait has gone from the original 6-7 quoted by my small- to mid-CA agency, to 24 months, to 18, to 9, etc. Finally, with the Sept matches, things started looking better. Not the most scientific approach, I know, but I was faced with some nasty info that made me face reality at times…

When we first started waiting last fall, it was easy…the back-to-school activities for my daughter and the holidays kept me busy. As the referrals slowed down, I was very frustrated. By March of ‘06, when there were only 5 days of LIDs matched, I had to emotionally unplug and walk away for a few months. I had such hopes that that would be the catch-up month, and when it was the worst ever, I realized that it was going to be a LONG time before I was going anywhere! By July or August, I was searching for info again (my agency doesn’t say ANYTHING until the referrals are all made to parents, then the waiting families get a msg with NO predictions, no promises, etc.). In some ways, I appreciate this, because I know when they say something it is fact and I can trust it. If I want to know anything else, I come here! I appreciate the info, and stay as emotionally attached or detached as I need to be at the time…

Congrats to all the new families!

By: hellofrompgh

hellofrompgh — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 23:50:05 +0000

Hi,

I have been doing my own analysis for 3 months now and have hit the nail on the head 3 months. Here is what I did.

Using RQ polls. I assumed that there were only 1/3 of the families who were waiting that participated in the polls. This was a WAG.

Our agency who NEVER speculates about anything said CCAA places about 600 NSN children a month.

SOOOO — I looked at the RQ pools and counted who the next 200 families would take us to. That was the date I expected to see as the cust off and I have been exactly right 3 months now.

Could not have done it with out you RQ.

By: jmlance

jmlance — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 21:27:57 +0000

RQ…. I’m sure everyone and their dog has done this — but I was getting discouraged looking at the polls… Sept. has some big days… But, adding the numbers of the last 3 batches, actually going from Sept. 9-29 isn’t as hard as I thought… there is only 198 so far on your poll.. as opposed to 213 in Oct.’s group and 201 in this last one… so, phew… maybe we WILL make Dec!!! ;-)

By: glassmaker

glassmaker — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 21:24:41 +0000

Ditto Claire! We are 10\9 and it is sooo exciting to be potentially next! I hate being right on the cusp though. I was hoping to avoid getting missed by one day (yeah right!) in the next referral group but I’ll take whatever they give me…

By: mcginnisc

mcginnisc — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 21:17:04 +0000

Awwww, RQ, why, oh why, couldn’t I be in the good case for December?? :-)

We are LID on 10/10/05 so it would be great, but, I’m not holding my breath at this point. However, it’s kinda cool that we are officially being included in the RQ’s good case/bad case chart!! ;p

Claire
LID 10/10/05

By: RumorQueen

RumorQueen — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 21:04:05 +0000

All I did was grab a screen shot from the Poll Results page so it would be handy to see the dates around the likely next cut off.

You can go into the poll results page and see any poll that I’ve ever done (and a few that were done elsewhere)

By: jmlance

jmlance — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 20:37:05 +0000

Thank you MClark and RQ for that info regarding Dec. referrals/Feb travels! I was getting ready to post the question to my case manager but just wanted to check here first to see if it had been asked yet! Whoo Hoo for RQ! :-) I found a t-shirt for a baby girl the other day I wanted to buy for RQ’s little one coming home… It said, “The Queen’s princess!” :-) Very cute! Our agency isn’t one that putters around with folks taking their time with their acceptance letters. They want that stuff in asap so they can go ahead and get our TA! So, banking on a Dec referral, and looking towards the possibility of a Feb travel date. RQ’… one last question… can we see the LID’s of 9/9-the end of Sept? the poll is only showing 9/18-Oct. would like to see what it looks like from 9/9-the end of Sept! Thank you!