November 30th analysis
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On the poll that closed in October we see that Aug 10 - Aug 25 had 213 matches and Aug 26 - Sep 8 had 201 matches. We are pretty sure that the poll has an accuracy rate (percentage wise) of plus or minus three or four percent.
If we forget about subtracting out the percents then 201 takes us to September 29th or 30th and 213 takes us to October 8th. That doesn’t narrow it down a whole lot. This looks like a pretty big window until we look at the poll. There aren’t many days with people logged in in between those days, so the actual window isn’t so big. The important thing to remember here is that if they do September 9th through October 9th next time this absolutely does not represent a speed up. The number of matches will have been the same, primarily because there were so many days during this time period that they apparently were not logging people in. |
November 30th, 2006 at 7:07 am
I’m looking at these numbers trying to guess when I will get my referral with a log in date of 10/19/05. is January to soon to hope for a referral? I’m just having a really hard time getting happy for this batch of referrals… Where is the “big batch”??? this little batch is no surprise it is just business as usual for CCAA!
RQ thank you for keeping us informed… I would be lost without this site! and I know you all understand my frustration with this long wait. I am just having a bad week and foolishly got my hopes up for a bigger batch this month, bringing my referral that much closer. I’ll go put on my happy face and stay glued to my computer for the photos of all the new little angel’s referral photos!
November 30th, 2006 at 7:13 am
RQ,
Do you still think it’s soon to do another poll into November & December so we can see the actual LID days?
November 30th, 2006 at 7:24 am
RQ,
Thanks for the analysis. For me every bit of information (best case, worst case, etc.) helps.
Btw, do you ever sleep?!?
Thanks again for all you do and congrats again to all of those with LIDs through September 8. I love referral days!
TJ
10.18.05
November 30th, 2006 at 7:25 am
RQ–I know it doesn’t represent a speed-up. But–does it represent that not as many people are going the China route b/c of the long wait, and thus the wait time will decrease. I am new to all this, so tell me I am crazy if I am! Just looking for a glimmer up hope since I am not even DTC yet!
Thanks
Michelle
November 30th, 2006 at 7:32 am
Well, it looks like I was safe when I started planning for a February referral.
LID 10/13/05
November 30th, 2006 at 7:33 am
I know this doesn’t show a speed up, but at least it shows a tad bit of consistency. At least if they kept this up, we would have an educated guess about upcoming matches and not just floundering out here.
Thank you, RQ, for all you do!!
His,
Mrs. U
LID 9-12-05- NEXT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.makingahouseahome.blogspot.com
November 30th, 2006 at 7:39 am
The numbers probably do not represent a reduction in people going the China route since most of these people getting referrals were applying when agencies were telling people a 6-9 month wait could be expected between the LID and the referral. I think the more telling stat is that agencies who provide estimates are now sayings 14-16 month waits are expected (of course no one is certain). In the course of a year, the wait has gone up at least 7 months. Unless China changes something or a lot of people drop out of the program, that wait will go up at least 7 months by next fall.
November 30th, 2006 at 7:50 am
My understanding is that CCAA was closed from Oct 1 to Oct 7 last year. That explains why no LIDs for those dates. For that reason, we should see a greater time span matched next month, but I don’t think it will represent a speed up. (Unless it happens again the following month!)
November 30th, 2006 at 7:54 am
Familyforfaith, I am anticipating a referral in February with a LID of 10/14/05, but holding out hope that I see it in January due to the low log-in numbers. Thankfully we have Christmas to get us through this never-ending wait.
November 30th, 2006 at 7:55 am
RQ,
Thanks for putting this in black and white this morning. I am being optimistic about the 10/8 or 10/9 in the next batch. My thinking is based on the August folks that were left out last batch that potentially are getting their referrals today. This would increase the numbers slightly on how many children were referred today. Am I on the right track? That would put the batch after that (Late Jan/Early Feb) around the 23rd or 24th based on the latest poll…. I am sorry that they did not do AOS today, but congratulations to all the new families represented here. Enjoy your big day!!!! Blessings, DJR
November 30th, 2006 at 7:56 am
Waiting for Molly The reason there are so few LID days in September is that something was going on at CCAA that where they were not logging in dossiers. We were dtc 8/30/05 lid 9/29/05 and many others also waited a month or so to be logged in. The dossiers were coming in and that is why 9/29 and some october days are so big. The good news for you is that by now people may well be looking elsewhwere and later months (nearer to your dtc) may be lighter. Good luck.
November 30th, 2006 at 7:57 am
Congratulations to those who will soon get their call.
November 30th, 2006 at 7:58 am
So if I have a 12/14/05 LID could I anticipate an April referral? We are moving to a new state and house in May. I think I should start packing up all the baby stuff I had out thinking maybe she would get to see her first home. Oh well, it might work out better for her if we don’t have to move her twice in such a short period. My fear is we move and get her all in the same month. Any recommendations?
November 30th, 2006 at 8:15 am
Graciesmom - I am a Dec. 7 LID and I think it’s looking like at least June for us to get a referral. This may be a blessing for you with the move. By the time you travel, you’ll be settled in and ready for your new little one. Just my thoughts - life is never easy, is it?!
November 30th, 2006 at 8:24 am
OK - My first post is MIA, so I will try again!
CONGRATS to all of the new RQ Families today!!! Enjoy every minute as you anticipate seeing your babies precious faces VERY soon!!
RQ - Thanks for recapping the poll this morning! I am sorry that they did not get AOS done, for you and everyone else, who was hoping! Lee and the rest of 9/9 - Sorry to see the 9/8 cutoff in writing, but YIPPEE you are next!!
RQ - Will you let us know if the 8/24 and 8/25 families that missed getting their referrals with the 11/2 batch are included today? If so, this would bump this batch up a bit, and increase the chances for the CCAA to get thru 10/8 or 10/9 next batch! Wishful thinking already!!
Hoping for a New Year’s early gift for the “on deck” folks!
Thanks,
DJR
November 30th, 2006 at 8:29 am
OMG We might be NEXT!?!?!?!?!?! How can I be saying that? It felt like this wait would never end… and yet, we’re almost there!
Darin
9/29/05
November 30th, 2006 at 8:33 am
tochina4sara: thanks for your encouragment! I need it today. Yes, I do think it will be a blessing to be settled in.
November 30th, 2006 at 8:35 am
GraciesMom - I’ve done a spreadsheet for projections and have used 14 days for each month for referrals - I started this many months ago and have been right within a day each time - Right now it looks like you’re on track for a 6/29 +/- referral, however, if the RQ post of November analysis pans out and the CCAA does 9/9 - 10/8 - you would most likely receive around 6/1 - please, please know that my spreadsheet was for my own sanity since we’re 3/13/06 LID and won’t receive referral for another year, however, the spreadsheet has been really close the past few months. Hope this helps….
November 30th, 2006 at 8:35 am
We just found out last week that we did not get logged in until September 29th even though our paperwork got to China August 10th 2005. After a good cry I told myself we wanted to travel in the spring anyway I just didn’t think it would be spring 07.
Congratulations to everyone who will get a referral!!
Emily
9/29/05
November 30th, 2006 at 8:37 am
Hello RQ from Spain.
We are LID 9/27……
Are you sure the December is our month?? please,please
We want this christmas be wonderfull
Thanks
November 30th, 2006 at 8:38 am
What time is it in Spain right now? It’s 8:30am for us in North America.
November 30th, 2006 at 8:43 am
DJR- Our medium sized multi country agency received referrals for ALL 9 of their 8/25 families that were missed last month. Hope it was the same for all the other left out last time.
CONGRATS again to all!!!
Abi 9/15/05
November 30th, 2006 at 8:51 am
I’m hoping that if the families that were skipped last month with LID’s of 8/24 & 8/25…..Maybe, this is a slight increase over last month??? Hoping.
November 30th, 2006 at 8:52 am
Waitingforsam
Just wondering what your spread sheet says for us-if you go this far out-LID 9-5-06.
Congrats to all new mom’s & dad’s today!
I love referral day!
November 30th, 2006 at 8:52 am
I should have added that IF they all get their referrals this month than maybe it’s an increase.
November 30th, 2006 at 8:59 am
I posted my happy congratulations post in the previous section, and feel this is the place to post the deep sadness I feel this morning. Didn’t want to mix the two. With an early 5/06 LID I feel like this will never end. I totally get how you are calculating this, RQ, and it makes sense that it is more about how many babies are matched than the actual dates. However, psychologically, I need to see more dates get covered. Make sense? It just seems that each month I get into the wait another month that gets added to the wait. It feels like running a marathon on a treadmill.
November 30th, 2006 at 9:01 am
Thanks Abi!! You are next! YEA
November 30th, 2006 at 9:04 am
Congrats to all the families that made it.
Does the CCAA close around Xmas? Do we think another batch will come out before the end of the year? (I know this has been talked about before but my mind is MUSH right now…) Also - did I dream this or does the CCAA sometimes do 2 batches in January.
With an LID of 10/28..I am looking for any piece of mind I can find.
November 30th, 2006 at 9:11 am
I know there are a lot of 9/29er out there so here are some questions about the possibilities out there. Maybe someone who has BTDT can help.
If I understand correctly, China celebrates the CNY from Feb 11-25. I don’t know however, when their offices close down. If the next batch comes in around the end of Dec., is there a chance we will travel before CNY? If not, could it be all the way into March that we will travel? I am really trying to figure this out as we are having people from out of town take off of work to stay with our children and are trying to give them SOME SORT OF BALLPARK.
Any thoughts or info would be helpful as I don’t want to bother my agency today if they are getting matches b/c they are busy getting things translated and out to parents.
Congrats to all who are included this month!
Meg
9/29
November 30th, 2006 at 9:24 am
RQ, Seriously, according to your thoughts it looks as though 9/29 is a shoe-in with the next batch… I’m struggling here this morning with the cutoff… DH did in fact gently nudge me with the news although I was hoping to hear “we made it, baby!”… :-( The polls definitely look as though there is a desert in between the 8th and the 29th though. RQ, please, just tell me your gut on this… you’ve been doing the analysis SO long I trust your judgment.
Mclark , there is a snowball’s chance we can still travel the first of Feb (BEFORE CNY) with a late Dec. referral per my case manager. And she is from China so she knows the intricacies and how it all works… don’t give up hope yet but guess what i have start working on today…. Whaaaaaaa…. nope, not today, i’ll start on it tomorrow… i want to celebrate with the newest referral families… so happy for you all…
November 30th, 2006 at 9:36 am
A huge CONGRATS to the happy families! Where will you post the pictures? (I am new at this!) I am already all teary-eyed for each of you!
My heart goes out to those that are so close yet so far away!
Question-there has been mention of those who were questioned in review….what does this mean?
Also, is there a place to see how many LIDs were between 8-26-05 and 9-8-05?
RQ-Great job you do! You were right on the mark! (unfortunately!)
Let me know where to look for the pictures!
And again, CONGRATULATIONS!!!!
November 30th, 2006 at 9:40 am
DJR,
That is my question as well. Wondering if all the 8/24-8/25 people who got skipped last month got their referral.
November 30th, 2006 at 9:44 am
Congratulations to all those who received their referrals! I can hardly wait to see the pictures. Graciesmom, have you spoken with your agency about moving? I sent an e-mail asking what this would do to our paperwork, and never received an answer. We had planned on moving this fall, and put it off. We are now thinking this spring. Anyone have an idea what this will do? We would be staying in the same state and general area. Thought we would wait for our little one to arrive and now think it would be better to be all settled in instead, but am terrified of rocking the boat.
Again, congratulations those who made the cut-off, a hang in there to those who just missed it, and a big hug to those of us who have no clue as to when we will be getting our referrals!
November 30th, 2006 at 9:44 am
Hello Newfiedeb, in this moment are 15:44 pm in Spain
and I try work but is impossible…. only are thinking…
in the next month…. ;-))
November 30th, 2006 at 9:45 am
Gracies mom-Its better to move before your referral. Moving is stressful-I know because I just did it recently accross country. Between starting a new job and setting up house in a different part of the country, it would have been very difficult to have gotten my referral then. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t care how hard it would have been, I would have preferred for this to happen because I can hardly wait to see my baby’s face. However, it probably means that now I will be a lot more relaxed when I do get my referral (plus I will have worked enough to get a great maternity leave). Waitingforsam’s spreadsheet makes complete sense of the timing of referrals to me. With a November 2005 LID, I don’t expect a referral until May 2007. I know its hard to wait, but think about how exciting it will be to get the baby’s room ready in your new house!!! Hang in there!!! Believe me, we all get it how HARD it is to wait for our babies.
Take care. D
Congratulations to everyone on your referrals. I can hardly wait to see your babies pictures!!! Hang in there 9.9/05 LIDers -YOU are NEXT!!!
November 30th, 2006 at 9:45 am
RQ, the Sept. poll stuff is a little confusing to me–the chart above shows a very light month, but the poll that’s ongoing shows Sept. to be not all that much lighter than Oct. and Nov…. so I guess Sept. 1-8 were kind of huge(?)
November 30th, 2006 at 9:50 am
Luna- I would think that if all the skipped families last month get referrals and no families are “skipped” this month that would be a slight increase, if the late Aug/Sept families who were asked questions are skipped this time then it would likely be a wash.
November 30th, 2006 at 9:52 am
limboforlibby-
We moved about the time we were LID. I waited a couple of months before letting my agency know. We had to have a homestudy update/addendum. It was only a one pager. We sent this to our agency and have a copy for ourselves. We were told that we would need to take this to China with us along with an I865 (provided to us by our agency). Hope this helps.
Congrats to all of the familys who are about to see their little angel faces soon.
November 30th, 2006 at 9:59 am
catherinethegreat: you are 100% right!! You made my day!
I am so happy for those who received thier referrals…Christmas came early for all of you :)
November 30th, 2006 at 10:13 am
OK…I have found the LID polls….am I correct that CCAA places approx. 200 babies with families each referral period? So it really isn’t a matter of days so much as a matter of LIDs, right? Are ther polls for LID’s later than OCtober 28th?
As a newbie, please forgive my ignorance….but matching only 200/month….is this a matter of a paper jam getting through the dossiers or that they only have 200 babies per referral batch ready for adoption? So, are they matching the amount of dossiers they get through to the babies or are they only going through as many dossiers as they have babies ready? Does that make sense?
November 30th, 2006 at 10:19 am
starwarsME, you are one of the reasons I love this site! Thanks for the information. For the life of me, I cannot understand why my agency could not have just sent me this. I try very hard not to ask any questions of them. I feel like I am scrutinized if I dare contact them. (1 tick mark against me for every call or e-mail) Maybe the pressure of a lot of parents contacting them has gotten to them, maybe this is just they way they have always been, but I am a tad disappointed with how they have handled (not handled) things since the slowdown.
Yeah, for all the families who were skipped last time and received their referrals this month!
November 30th, 2006 at 10:21 am
mgeorge - No one can predict future trends with certainty and with a 9/5/06 LID the only information that can be gathered is really based on current wait times mixed with the increase over the past 6 months. Given that information, if I were you, I would max the wait time and anticipate a full 24 months from LID to referral, with travel 6-8 weeks later. WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER, the wait time has never been more than 24 months (to my knowledge) and I don’t think it has stayed at that long of a wait for extended periods of time - translation - you could very well be blessed enough to be caught in the downswing next year?? An example of the time swing in case you haven’t heard how fast it can change in either direction - We applied on 9/22/05 and were told that the paperwork should take 3-4 months and the wait was 6-7 months. All in all, we should have had our daughter home this September. In actuality, we will not have her home until 12/07 or 01/08 because of the sudden increase. It can swing the other way just as fast. Again, no one can predict future trends with certainty, so my encouragement is that you have an LID at one of the highest wait times, it can only go back down from here. I hope that helps somewhat…
November 30th, 2006 at 10:21 am
marcyjdun, the official CCAA statement has been that there’s a lack of paper-ready babies due to more domestic adoptions and fewer infant abandonments. I believe there’s still a statement on their web site re this. Many outsiders think the shortage of babies is at least in part due to political reasons (a government-mandated slowdown associated with face issues and the upcoming 2008 Olympics in Beijing, other political reason we may not be able to guess). There have been eyewitness reports of orphanages having very few babies or only SN babies, and other reports of orphanages filled with NSN babies in need of a home. I guess only the CCAA and China’s Civil Affairs office really know what’s going on.
November 30th, 2006 at 10:35 am
RQ - First off - LOVE YOUR SITE! I am addicted. Check in first thing in the morning, all day at work and then before I go to bed.
My LID is 11/17/05 and I follow your analysis pretty well so I was wondering when you will post the November LID poll results.
I am trying not to get my hopes up for a April referral - but that is my anniversary month and I can’t think of a better present for me and my husband.
November 30th, 2006 at 10:36 am
If the theory of less “paper ready babies” due to domestic adoptions and fewer abandonments it true (meaning less babies, and not many babies that haven’t been “processed”), why would the CCAA continue to accept so many dossiers each month. That just doesn’t make sense to me.
November 30th, 2006 at 10:45 am
marcyjdun wrote: “As a newbie, please forgive my ignorance….but matching only 200/month….is this a matter of a paper jam getting through the dossiers or that they only have 200 babies per referral batch ready for adoption?”
I’m sure that CCAA is matching many more than 200 children/month. 200 represents the number of RQ-reading families that get their match each month. Enough people participate in RQ’s polls that they are a very good indicator of the overall population and a good predictor of the next cutoff date (assuming CCAA matches roughly the same number of children).
Now, what % of waiting families participate in the RQ polls?
If China matches about 10k babies per year, that’s a bit over 800/month, which would mean that about 25% of all waiting families participate in the RQ polls.
I think that’s quite amazing. Kudos RQ!
-JJ
November 30th, 2006 at 10:47 am
I’m actually dealing pretty well with missing the cutoff by a day, especially since we had a pretty good idea that would be the case (and a few days to adjust to that). We went through the “on the bright side” list last night (cheaper flights after CNY, better to be on FMLA March - May in chilly Minnesota, knowing we’re next so we can relax a little, etc.), but this poll reminded me of one more bright side. If they get through the end of September with the next batch, we might meet RQ in China!
Not that we’ll probably know at the time. It’s not like you’re going to wear a sweatshirt with a big RQ on it, right RQ…?
November 30th, 2006 at 10:47 am
Congrats to all those who are anticipating seeing their baby’s face today or tomorrow. Can’t wait to see those pictures posted. I really wanted to believe that this would be a huge month, but hopefully we’ll still be next, and I guess with this month being christmas the month should fly right by. Right???
Lisa
LID 9/27/05