Comments on: November 30th analysis http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/ Join the Rumor Queen as she looks for the latest rumors and then analyzes them, trying to figure out what the CCAA will do next. Mon, 01 Dec 2008 18:19:45 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: waitingfornaomi http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24615 waitingfornaomi Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:47:48 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24615 Congrats to all those who are anticipating seeing their baby's face today or tomorrow. Can't wait to see those pictures posted. I really wanted to believe that this would be a huge month, but hopefully we'll still be next, and I guess with this month being christmas the month should fly right by. Right??? Lisa LID 9/27/05 Congrats to all those who are anticipating seeing their baby’s face today or tomorrow. Can’t wait to see those pictures posted. I really wanted to believe that this would be a huge month, but hopefully we’ll still be next, and I guess with this month being christmas the month should fly right by. Right???
Lisa
LID 9/27/05

]]> By: Lee http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24613 Lee Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:47:05 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24613 I'm actually dealing pretty well with missing the cutoff by a day, especially since we had a pretty good idea that would be the case (and a few days to adjust to that). We went through the "on the bright side" list last night (cheaper flights after CNY, better to be on FMLA March - May in chilly Minnesota, knowing we're next so we can relax a little, etc.), but this poll reminded me of one more bright side. If they get through the end of September with the next batch, we might meet RQ in China! Not that we'll probably know at the time. It's not like you're going to wear a sweatshirt with a big RQ on it, right RQ...? I’m actually dealing pretty well with missing the cutoff by a day, especially since we had a pretty good idea that would be the case (and a few days to adjust to that). We went through the “on the bright side” list last night (cheaper flights after CNY, better to be on FMLA March - May in chilly Minnesota, knowing we’re next so we can relax a little, etc.), but this poll reminded me of one more bright side. If they get through the end of September with the next batch, we might meet RQ in China!

Not that we’ll probably know at the time. It’s not like you’re going to wear a sweatshirt with a big RQ on it, right RQ…?

]]> By: jj5406 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24611 jj5406 Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:45:08 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24611 marcyjdun wrote: "As a newbie, please forgive my ignorance….but matching only 200/month….is this a matter of a paper jam getting through the dossiers or that they only have 200 babies per referral batch ready for adoption?" I'm sure that CCAA is matching many more than 200 children/month. 200 represents the number of RQ-reading families that get their match each month. Enough people participate in RQ's polls that they are a very good indicator of the overall population and a good predictor of the next cutoff date (assuming CCAA matches roughly the same number of children). Now, what % of waiting families participate in the RQ polls? If China matches about 10k babies per year, that's a bit over 800/month, which would mean that about 25% of all waiting families participate in the RQ polls. I think that's quite amazing. Kudos RQ! -JJ marcyjdun wrote: “As a newbie, please forgive my ignorance….but matching only 200/month….is this a matter of a paper jam getting through the dossiers or that they only have 200 babies per referral batch ready for adoption?”

I’m sure that CCAA is matching many more than 200 children/month. 200 represents the number of RQ-reading families that get their match each month. Enough people participate in RQ’s polls that they are a very good indicator of the overall population and a good predictor of the next cutoff date (assuming CCAA matches roughly the same number of children).

Now, what % of waiting families participate in the RQ polls?

If China matches about 10k babies per year, that’s a bit over 800/month, which would mean that about 25% of all waiting families participate in the RQ polls.

I think that’s quite amazing. Kudos RQ!

-JJ

]]> By: mcwannab http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24610 mcwannab Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:36:22 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24610 If the theory of less "paper ready babies" due to domestic adoptions and fewer abandonments it true (meaning less babies, and not many babies that haven't been "processed"), why would the CCAA continue to accept so many dossiers each month. That just doesn't make sense to me. If the theory of less “paper ready babies” due to domestic adoptions and fewer abandonments it true (meaning less babies, and not many babies that haven’t been “processed”), why would the CCAA continue to accept so many dossiers each month. That just doesn’t make sense to me.

]]> By: kellykelly http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24609 kellykelly Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:35:18 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24609 RQ - First off - LOVE YOUR SITE! I am addicted. Check in first thing in the morning, all day at work and then before I go to bed. My LID is 11/17/05 and I follow your analysis pretty well so I was wondering when you will post the November LID poll results. I am trying not to get my hopes up for a April referral - but that is my anniversary month and I can't think of a better present for me and my husband. RQ - First off - LOVE YOUR SITE! I am addicted. Check in first thing in the morning, all day at work and then before I go to bed.

My LID is 11/17/05 and I follow your analysis pretty well so I was wondering when you will post the November LID poll results.

I am trying not to get my hopes up for a April referral - but that is my anniversary month and I can’t think of a better present for me and my husband.

]]> By: CWS http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24601 CWS Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:21:31 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24601 marcyjdun, the official CCAA statement has been that there's a lack of paper-ready babies due to more domestic adoptions and fewer infant abandonments. I believe there's still a statement on their web site re this. Many outsiders think the shortage of babies is at least in part due to political reasons (a government-mandated slowdown associated with face issues and the upcoming 2008 Olympics in Beijing, other political reason we may not be able to guess). There have been eyewitness reports of orphanages having very few babies or only SN babies, and other reports of orphanages filled with NSN babies in need of a home. I guess only the CCAA and China's Civil Affairs office really know what's going on. marcyjdun, the official CCAA statement has been that there’s a lack of paper-ready babies due to more domestic adoptions and fewer infant abandonments. I believe there’s still a statement on their web site re this. Many outsiders think the shortage of babies is at least in part due to political reasons (a government-mandated slowdown associated with face issues and the upcoming 2008 Olympics in Beijing, other political reason we may not be able to guess). There have been eyewitness reports of orphanages having very few babies or only SN babies, and other reports of orphanages filled with NSN babies in need of a home. I guess only the CCAA and China’s Civil Affairs office really know what’s going on.

]]> By: waitingforsam http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24600 waitingforsam Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:21:00 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24600 mgeorge - No one can predict future trends with certainty and with a 9/5/06 LID the only information that can be gathered is really based on current wait times mixed with the increase over the past 6 months. Given that information, if I were you, I would max the wait time and anticipate a full 24 months from LID to referral, with travel 6-8 weeks later. WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER, the wait time has never been more than 24 months (to my knowledge) and I don't think it has stayed at that long of a wait for extended periods of time - translation - you could very well be blessed enough to be caught in the downswing next year?? An example of the time swing in case you haven't heard how fast it can change in either direction - We applied on 9/22/05 and were told that the paperwork should take 3-4 months and the wait was 6-7 months. All in all, we should have had our daughter home this September. In actuality, we will not have her home until 12/07 or 01/08 because of the sudden increase. It can swing the other way just as fast. Again, no one can predict future trends with certainty, so my encouragement is that you have an LID at one of the highest wait times, it can only go back down from here. I hope that helps somewhat... mgeorge - No one can predict future trends with certainty and with a 9/5/06 LID the only information that can be gathered is really based on current wait times mixed with the increase over the past 6 months. Given that information, if I were you, I would max the wait time and anticipate a full 24 months from LID to referral, with travel 6-8 weeks later. WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER, the wait time has never been more than 24 months (to my knowledge) and I don’t think it has stayed at that long of a wait for extended periods of time - translation - you could very well be blessed enough to be caught in the downswing next year?? An example of the time swing in case you haven’t heard how fast it can change in either direction - We applied on 9/22/05 and were told that the paperwork should take 3-4 months and the wait was 6-7 months. All in all, we should have had our daughter home this September. In actuality, we will not have her home until 12/07 or 01/08 because of the sudden increase. It can swing the other way just as fast. Again, no one can predict future trends with certainty, so my encouragement is that you have an LID at one of the highest wait times, it can only go back down from here. I hope that helps somewhat…

]]> By: limboforlibby http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24597 limboforlibby Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:19:38 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24597 starwarsME, you are one of the reasons I love this site! Thanks for the information. For the life of me, I cannot understand why my agency could not have just sent me this. I try very hard not to ask any questions of them. I feel like I am scrutinized if I dare contact them. (1 tick mark against me for every call or e-mail) Maybe the pressure of a lot of parents contacting them has gotten to them, maybe this is just they way they have always been, but I am a tad disappointed with how they have handled (not handled) things since the slowdown. Yeah, for all the families who were skipped last time and received their referrals this month! starwarsME, you are one of the reasons I love this site! Thanks for the information. For the life of me, I cannot understand why my agency could not have just sent me this. I try very hard not to ask any questions of them. I feel like I am scrutinized if I dare contact them. (1 tick mark against me for every call or e-mail) Maybe the pressure of a lot of parents contacting them has gotten to them, maybe this is just they way they have always been, but I am a tad disappointed with how they have handled (not handled) things since the slowdown.

Yeah, for all the families who were skipped last time and received their referrals this month!

]]> By: marcyjdun http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24596 marcyjdun Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:13:44 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24596 OK...I have found the LID polls....am I correct that CCAA places approx. 200 babies with families each referral period? So it really isn't a matter of days so much as a matter of LIDs, right? Are ther polls for LID's later than OCtober 28th? As a newbie, please forgive my ignorance....but matching only 200/month....is this a matter of a paper jam getting through the dossiers or that they only have 200 babies per referral batch ready for adoption? So, are they matching the amount of dossiers they get through to the babies or are they only going through as many dossiers as they have babies ready? Does that make sense? OK…I have found the LID polls….am I correct that CCAA places approx. 200 babies with families each referral period? So it really isn’t a matter of days so much as a matter of LIDs, right? Are ther polls for LID’s later than OCtober 28th?

As a newbie, please forgive my ignorance….but matching only 200/month….is this a matter of a paper jam getting through the dossiers or that they only have 200 babies per referral batch ready for adoption? So, are they matching the amount of dossiers they get through to the babies or are they only going through as many dossiers as they have babies ready? Does that make sense?

]]> By: GraciesMom http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24594 GraciesMom Thu, 30 Nov 2006 14:59:50 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/11/30/november-30th-analysis/#comment-24594 catherinethegreat: you are 100% right!! You made my day! I am so happy for those who received thier referrals...Christmas came early for all of you :) catherinethegreat: you are 100% right!! You made my day!

I am so happy for those who received thier referrals…Christmas came early for all of you :)

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