New Poll, New HTS Total
As many of you noticed yesterday, I’ve put a new poll up. Click the “LID Poll” image in the top right of this column to vote. Please note that this poll is for 2005 Log In Dates. Not 2006 Log in Dates.
I need to apologize to the many people who have sent me a PM in the past week or two. I’ve read them all, but I usually try to respond and there simply has not been time. For those who sent me information, thank you very much.
As for the size of this batch and possible sizes of the next batches, I’ll work on a new analysis in the next day or two. Meanwhile I’ll keep moving the Babies! post up to the top for a little while.
Once again, to everyone who got a referral yesterday or will receive one in the next few days - a Huge Congrats to you all!
And finally, we have a new Half the Sky total: $6,838.00
To everyone who has donated to Half the Sky, thank you so much. Every time I get an update from them I just sit here and bawl. If you aren’t familiar with our little fundraising effort for them, or don’t know who HTS is, please visit this page.
January 4th, 2007 at 8:09 am
Hi RQ - I cannot remember your LID and was wondering if you were included in this batch.
Congrats to all those who are receiving their referrals. Keep those pictures coming!
And I’m sorry to those of you who just missed it this time. But, you know, you are next.
LID 6.13.06
January 4th, 2007 at 8:25 am
Great Job RQ with the fundraiser. Did you ever think that you would make such an impact when you first decided to adopt from China?
Please add me to your list of blogs.
I am still in Paperchase mode.
Seventhdiamond.blogspot.com
January 4th, 2007 at 8:27 am
RQ
As always, you’re doing a great job keeping track of all of the stats and rumors (in a way most of us can understand — I admit that some of the China adoption statistics pages I’ve read are completely beyond me!).
Congratulations to all of the new families who have just seen or who are anxiously waiting to see their sweet babies’ faces for the first time. How well I remember that thrill that keeps you on cloud nine for weeks!
Big hugs to all who missed the cut-off, that just hurts, no matter how much you know that you might be next. Your time WILL come!
Happy 2007!
January 4th, 2007 at 8:58 am
I just realized what I wrote earlier. RQ - I probably never did know your LID. Just wondering … and hoping you received your referral. Thanks.
LID 6.13.06
January 4th, 2007 at 9:19 am
Thanks RQ. I really appreciate the poll. You can see how anxious all the November 2005 LIDers are; Many of us have voted already!!! This will help us have a better sense of ‘our turn’; I know you can’t tell us if you received your referral or not; We all hope that you have!!!
Take care.
January 4th, 2007 at 9:23 am
I just wanted to say Congratulations to all the families with referrals the babies are beautiful!! We are DTC Dec 29, 06 Does anyone know how long we could expect to wait for our LID?
January 4th, 2007 at 9:35 am
RQ,
Thanks for all you do. My name still does not link to our website and with the chance we might get a referral next, could you please add us? I think we were added but with a typo about a month ago. I love seeing all the babies and cannot wait to share our joy soon. Thank you SO much. I really hope things are going your way right now:)
http://www.babyjellybeans.com/web/do/site?ID=6022
Kim LID 10-08-05 and hopefully next
January 4th, 2007 at 9:46 am
With a 11/30 LID I still don’t make the cut for a lid poll.
~kicks dirt~
January 4th, 2007 at 9:59 am
RQ - Happy to see the HTS total growing. When I think of all the time and energy you put into this site and all the folks that check this site faithfully I can only imagine the total will continue to grow!
So happy to see all the referral pics coming in. Congratulations to all the happy families! I just love referral time!
TJ
January 4th, 2007 at 10:05 am
Thank you RQ for starting to work on new numbers so soon! It feels like we have been on the sidelines for SO long with a Nov LID and now the coach is telling us to suit up that he’s going to put us in the game at some point. Still waiting, still uncertain, but we can feel our time coming :)
Now on more of a downer note and I really hope that I am wrong here. But for some reason I am sensing that we aren’t going to see a huge jump in number of days next batch even with the six days of no LIDs. I have a bad feeling that the CCAA is just going to use those days as a “breather.” Someone please disagree with me here and tell me why I am wrong! Congrats again on all of the referrals. How exciting for those of you getting your pictures today!
January 4th, 2007 at 10:19 am
waitingforkensie — i have thought the same thing. i dont know the reasons, but i have a feeling that they are stuck on the 15-ish days thing and they wouldn’t do 30 days, or close to it, even if it were possible due to light log in days or vacations of whatever. again, i can’t fathom why they wouldn’t want to move more quickly when they have the ability to do so. Buy i have this pessimistic feeling that those of us hoping for any kind of speed up, even a ‘fake’ one based on light log in days, are going to be disappointed every month.
January 4th, 2007 at 10:31 am
RQ,
I called my agency just now and they confirmed that we might not see more referrals this month. After yesterday’s heartbreak I clung to the idea that we will see her face end of this month (and seems that others do as well), but I guess I should get ready for a February referral. I didn’t cry yesterday, but I am crying now. Is the “end-of-the-month referrals” pattern really over? Is even this unpredictable now?
I better pull myself together. Back to playing the scene from 40-year Old Virgin in my head. The one where Corel gets waxed by the Chinese lady… I wish I was him and the lady was a CCAA official.
January 4th, 2007 at 10:36 am
waitingforkensie and eli; Unfortunately, I agree with you. I think if they get to the 14th of October next month that we are lucky…. and I think referrals will be the first week of Feb (I hope for the 31rst, but…., I suspect they will give referrals after Feb1 after March 1 because of CNY). Just my thoughts…. I am even more worried with the month of NOvember because it is even heavier than October….. This is why I am now thinking May -June ; rather than April -June for my referral. I realllllly , reallly hope that I am wrong (and i don’t wish for that often).
January 4th, 2007 at 10:50 am
Nazar,
When you spoke to your agency did they suggest that the next batch of referrals will be sent before Chinese New Years (Feb 18th)?
My large, China-only agency told me yesterday that with a 09/29/05 LID we’d be getting our referral before Chinese New Years. This was the manager of the Child Match department, so I feel fairly confident in what she said.
January 4th, 2007 at 10:58 am
sophie-mom - I didn’t even consider not getting a referral before CNY. I am upset because yesterday’s referrals should be December referrals, and we should have seen ours at the end of this month. I did not even think of getting a referral in February, and I tried to stay pessimistic to protect my sanity. This also means that we may not even travel in March, which is another disaster because we have visitors coming from overseas. Lastly, getting a referral in February will make our wait 17 months! Sorry, I just don’t see anything good in being told that we will see her face before CNY. My husband postponed his business trip to Korea in case we get a referral now. Not so. So he thinks of flying first two weeks in February. Now that may be wrong too. I am trying to reach him and see if he can by some miracle leave ASAP. After two year wait, IVF and all this other lovely stuff, I can’t imagine that we won’t be together when the picture comes.
Sorry for venting this much. I know it is a happy day for many.
January 4th, 2007 at 11:00 am
It has been pretty common for them to send out a batch right before they close for Chinese New Year. I actually think it went out a week earlier last year, but I don’t remember for sure. I won’t be suprised if we don’t see another batch until then, but I’ll continue to hope it will be in about 4 weeks or so.
January 4th, 2007 at 11:07 am
I’m curious to see the next RQ analysis. Just quick numbers from her Oct poll would seem to show that if they did the same number of matches next time as this time they would get through about Oct 10 and if they did as many as they did in the previous batch they could get through Oct 17 or so.
January 4th, 2007 at 11:16 am
Nazar,
Vent away, girl! I know exactly how you feel. After countless rounds of Clomid, 3 IVFs and 3 miscarriages, I know how frustrating the waiting can be.
I had a stiff drink yesterday, felt a good buzz, and am now trying to be a little bid positive in that next month will definately be our month.
I feel like the past 12 months I’ve essentially put my life on hold. Turned down a trip to Jamaica because I thought we might be in China around that time. Turned down a trip to Orlando for the same reason. I’m tired of putting my life on hold while I wait for this dang referral.
Oh well, it’s beyond my control.
Vent away!
Erica
09/29/05 LID
January 4th, 2007 at 11:18 am
I am so confused!! There are people on the poll who indicate a LID of Oct 5 or 6. I thought that CCAA did not log in anyone until 10-07. Do you think people hit the wrong day or there are early Oct LID”S? This could change some estimates–even if they are light days.
Kim
10-08-05
January 4th, 2007 at 11:30 am
One more question for RQ, this month does it appear that people were skipped (those questioned in review or otherwise) or referred out of order?
January 4th, 2007 at 11:34 am
Erica - thank you. I just cried to my husband over the phone and he simply doesn’t understand why I am upset. I know end of January or beginning of February is the same thing overall. But it is FEBRUARY! I feel that we got cheeted of December. And yes, many things missed because “soon we will have a child”. I’ve been working part time and post-poning getting a second degree for almost two years now. On top of not having a child, I feel like a loser in terms of life accomplishments.
January 4th, 2007 at 11:49 am
Pam - Good question.
Also, did the people who were skipped last time get good news this time?
LID May 10, 2006
January 4th, 2007 at 12:01 pm
RQ
Can you extend the new LID poll to include Nov 27-30? Then we could compare the total November LIDS on this poll with the total for November in the monthly poll you recently closed. This would allow some of us here to update our own projection numbers based on more current data. If possible thanks in advance.
January 4th, 2007 at 12:04 pm
Waiting4Ash — I too would love to know if those skipped last time received a referral this time? And has anyone heard of people being skipped this time who were expecting a referral?
Our LID 12-5-05 and trying to get a grasp on what’s going on!
January 4th, 2007 at 12:14 pm
I coach a high school girls basketball team on the east coast and have started a “Shoot for the Sky campaign.” The girls on the team are collecting pledges for how many points we will score this season. I don’t have a total yet but all the funds collected will go to the Half the Sky charity in the name of our team and RQ. The girls on the team have been living through my many moods during this adoption journey and just felt it was a way they could truly involve themselves. They are a great bunch of young ladies.
January 4th, 2007 at 12:18 pm
Nazar, please never put yourself down in terms of life accomplishments. We never know how many people we truly touch in the course of our lives but the little lady you bring back from China will benefit from your wisdom and she will grow up with love and kindness and the sense of accomplishment you get from her will make it worth the wait you are going through.
January 4th, 2007 at 12:25 pm
Dang, was hoping to finally make it into the polls!
LID 12/19/05 (and I hate having to put the year on the end now)
January 4th, 2007 at 12:26 pm
Nazar, I second what wunone says. You are not a loser in life. You are just worn out from the waiting and who can blame you. At 13.5 months; I am worn out too and I still have to wait > 4 months before I can even hope for a referral (and probably even longer). Wunone is 100% right about the baby. You may have already done this; but I would go for getting the baby’s room ready and your packing organized because you know you are DEFINAELY next. I am taking Mandarin lessons; it helps me feel like I am doing something for the baby. Hang in there and don’t put yourself down for feeling frustrated and down with the wait. You will see your baby soon and she will be worth the wait.
January 4th, 2007 at 12:43 pm
i must be blind or i’m not logged in correctly. i don’t see the lid image to click and vote.
January 4th, 2007 at 12:48 pm
Hi there. I’m a little confused by all the talk of referral timing and CNY. I’m considering this last batch as right on time because it was 30ish days after that last batch. Therefore I expect the next batch will come 30ish days after this one–some time within the first week of Feb. CNY isn’t until the 18th, so I see no reason for it to impact that batch. I would, however, expect a slight to moderate delay in the batch after that if the CCAA is on holiday the last two weeks of Feb….so maybe March’s referrals would come mid-March instead of the first week. I don’t see any reason for a delay in the next batch, but people seem to be speculating about it, so I’m a bit confused.
January 4th, 2007 at 1:03 pm
I’m actually hoping for TWO batches. One in three weeks, and one just before they leave for break.
January 4th, 2007 at 1:07 pm
Ni Hao Catherine & others,
My DH & I also took Mandarin lessons…but our daughter (also a Katharine) came from Yangdong SWI in Guangdong province where they only speak Cantonese…and a regional dialect, at that!
Oh well, it gave us something to do while we waited!
January 4th, 2007 at 1:09 pm
Hey Julie43,
It’s a big purple box on the top right of this topic (you might have to get out of the comments section to see it)
January 4th, 2007 at 1:09 pm
From a preliminary look at the poll results so far, it looks like the results are very consistent with those of the last poll that closed in October Also, for the 11/1 referrals, over 200 “RQ poll responders” were matched; for the 11/30 referrals, about 200 were matched; but for this batch, only about 130 were matched. Looks like it was a much smaller batch! Maybe it was because they were dealing with the new requirements situation? The July, August, and September batches were about at this level, so maybe we saw a temporary speed up for the two November batches? If they only do about 130 again, that would get us through Oct. 9 or 10.
LID 03/06
January 4th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
Hello RQ,
I cannot see your new poll??? Hmmm. I’ve looked and looked.
Thank you for your site. My agency doesn’t say much so this has been a blessing. I would love to see some predictions for the next couple months. We have an 11/4/05 LID.
January 4th, 2007 at 1:21 pm
to those who cannot see the poll, i had that problem too this a.m… if the comments section is showing, i cant see the poll. so try closing out the comments. when you just look at RQ’s entry, without the comments section open, you should be able to see the purple box with the poll.
hope that makes sense
January 4th, 2007 at 1:42 pm
Dragonmom-
I am aslo holding onto hope for 2 batches before CNY-a girl can dream-I thought I had read somewhere that they had done that in the past but I am not sure-Best wishes to all of those who are definatley next-
Angel
10-27-05
January 4th, 2007 at 1:58 pm
Why is December not included?
January 4th, 2007 at 1:59 pm
trullyblessed; the hubby speaks Cantonese so I am covered for that; never hurts to try….really like your nick name… I feel the same about my daughter.
January 4th, 2007 at 2:02 pm
As an 9/29 er, yesterday was very dissapointing for us. Been a very long and frustrating wait! I ended up taking a 1/2 day from work and went to mall for some clothes shopping for our new baby. Made us feel very good. Today, my wife is ordering a crib and furniture. My only concern is the splitting of 9/29, which based on all of the mishaps thus far, would be par for the course…..
I know we are getting real close!!! Can’t wait to meet her. I hope they are taking good care of her….
January 4th, 2007 at 2:09 pm
I mean, why is December not included in the new poll?
January 4th, 2007 at 2:18 pm
Remember — referrals tend to come every 4 to 5 weeks, or as someone said every 30ish something days. They do not come month to month. December was not skipped. The next batch will probably come the last week of January/beginning of February. However, it is also possible that a batch may come a little earlier so that they can get one out before CNY.
Now, can we just get February out of Review???
Hang in there everybody!
January 4th, 2007 at 2:26 pm
i figured out the poll thing with your help. thanks.
January 4th, 2007 at 2:33 pm
I have a slightly different perspective than Clementine. I Ihave always thought of referrals as coming month to month. The exact date varies but it has stayed within a week or so of the last day of the month for over a year.
January 4th, 2007 at 2:36 pm
I think adomom meant, why isn’t December included in the poll.
January 4th, 2007 at 3:22 pm
RQ, you’ve literally made a difference in the adoption community and with the Half the Sky program. Thank you. jfk
January 4th, 2007 at 3:28 pm
Funny, isn’t it….I thought giving up trying to get pregnant that my life would no longer revolve around “cycles.” Not so….now my life revolves around the referral cycles! Hmmm.
January 4th, 2007 at 3:30 pm
marcyjdun, thanks for the laugh.
jfk
http://www.HelloKatieGirl.com
January 4th, 2007 at 3:54 pm
Where do we stand with the history of referrals before/after the CNY break? Seems to me they like to do a big mailing right BEFORE they go on holiday - and I am holding out hope that we could squeeeeeeeak into that batch.
Talk about discouraging, I have just started telling people “March” when they ask. I have been moving it back every month pretty much so that is nothing new! May would be a lovely time to travel, maybe for my birthday…
PJM
LID 10/26
January 4th, 2007 at 4:03 pm
Kimber,
I am with you on being confused over the first week of October in the poll. I also thought that CCAA was closed that first week last year and did not see anyone before 10/7 on the last poll. Not sure what to make of it.
PJ Mama,
I completely understand what you are feeling. It seems like every month I lower my expectations another notch. I remember when I started this almost two years ago, I was like, “well, I only want to travel at such and such time, and I would really like my baby to have a birthday in the fall or spring…” Complete rubbish. Now I don’t give a c*a# about when or where I go, or whenever her birthday is. I just want to go, get her, come home, and live my life again!! Arrrrggghhhh…guess I am not following advice of finding “peace and tranquility” within the waiting process!
January 4th, 2007 at 4:10 pm
ibelieve:
You said “for the 11/1 referrals, over 200 “RQ poll responders†were matched; for the 11/30 referrals, about 200 were matched; but for this batch, only about 130 were matched.”
I am wondering how you are able to determine this?
Thanks.
January 4th, 2007 at 4:12 pm
kimber and kristinian - I am confused by your comments. I just checked the poll numbers and the first week of Oct 05 LID is still showing as zeros where I’m looking. the first Oct 05 LID is Oct 7. where are you guys seeing the other information?? thanks
January 4th, 2007 at 4:17 pm
mia2me,
I was looking at the new poll results so far…it shows 2 people with LID of 10/5/05 and 1 with LID of 10/6. The poll from a few months ago did not have anyone logged in before the 7th. Doesn’t make sense if CCAA was closed?
:-)
January 4th, 2007 at 4:20 pm
ok — maybe someone made a mistake - either an agency provided a wrong LID, or someone accidentally keyed in as if they were Oct 05 but they were really 06. Yeah, I wouldn’t worry about it.. since there are only 3 people - no offense to those people! - but it really couldn’t be if the ccaa was indeed closed, right?
January 4th, 2007 at 4:26 pm
Cruncher:
Just from looking at the past RQ polls (there is a link to them from the blog). There was a poll that was taken in July, that has LID’s through April of 2006. There was also a poll that closed in October that has LID’s through Oct. 28, 2005. This current poll goes through Nov. 26, 2005. From these polls, you can figure out how many poll responders were referred per period. It’s interesting to look at the history. For the past 8 referral periods, the number of poll responders that were included has varied from 121-230, with an average of 163. So it’s an interesting exercise to look forward, using the poll results. Of course, the usual disclaimers apply, including you probably can’t combine poll results without using some kind of leveling factor; the farther out the poll, the more unreliable the data most likely is; etc.
January 4th, 2007 at 4:34 pm
mia2me,
I think you are right and someone may have accidentally put in a LID from ‘06 and not ‘05. I am trying not to freak over three votes, but have been hopeful about no one being LID before the 7th because it meant that we were even closer. I just hope that the CCAA refers well into October so that it doesn’t matter!!! (Time to pick up the crack pipe again and resume hopeful status for next three weeks…) ;-)
January 4th, 2007 at 4:40 pm
First time contributer…
We donated $2000 in 2006 to HTS.
January 4th, 2007 at 4:48 pm
wackosuzanne, you’re not wacko. People like you keep HTS going. Our daughter, Katie was in the program in China. Thank you !! jfk
http://www.HelloKatieGirl.com
January 4th, 2007 at 4:54 pm
Our agency gave us an original LID of 10/05/05. That was when CCAA was doing full months. They notified all of us in May 05 that the actual date is 10/14/05. Maybe someone missed the e-mail.
LID 10/14/05
January 4th, 2007 at 4:59 pm
Kristinian–”crack pipe”–what a riot! That’s how I feel.
January 4th, 2007 at 5:22 pm
marythefifth,
Isn’t it the truth!!! I have become very good friends with another woman who is in my expected travel group and she and I have shared this joke for quite a while. It seems that one of us is always grasping at some futile possibility that things will speed up, thus, smoking the old “crack pipe.” Comments that are hopeful in nature are usually met by the other one of us saying, “ok now…put down the crack pipe and come back to reality!” We like to switch roles of optimist and pessimist, just to keep it interesting. If nothing else, it keeps us laughing. :-)
January 4th, 2007 at 5:26 pm
Numbercruncher:
The numbers come from tallying the respondents on the poll that closed 10/11/06. There were 130 poll responders referred this time. Going back in order from this batch there were 201, 213, 170, 138, 187, 230, 119, 147 and 75 responders referred. So the 130 looks low. It especially looks low if you consider the corresponding number of LID days included. There were 19 LID days included in this last batch and then going backwards again 16, 14, 18, 9, 15, 13, 9, 6 and 5 days. So more LID days covered but fewer RQ poll responders referred this time. (The average number of poll responders referred per LID, starting with the last referrals and going backward, are 7, 14, 13, 9, 15, 13, 18, 13, 25 and 15.) Let’s hope this is all due to a lot of September 2005 people not knowing about RQ or that particular poll.
January 4th, 2007 at 5:30 pm
thanks birdeez, that makes sense!
January 4th, 2007 at 5:43 pm
I’m worried that if someone accidentally put in those 3 October votes that were really from 2006 instead of 2005 then others might be doing to same thing on some of the other days. We aren’t going to have accurate results.
January 4th, 2007 at 6:20 pm
dragonmom
my LID is Nov 30 2005 too can I join you kicking dirt?
January 4th, 2007 at 6:34 pm
RQ - any more word from the Spain members? Didn’t one of them indicate that there may have been 400-500 referrals in Spain this month? Could the polls be weighted towards U.S. members, so that a lower number of poll LIDS matched is really a reflection of a large month of European dossiers matched?
January 4th, 2007 at 6:45 pm
Based on what I have from last year’s referral info. from our agency there were referrals received on 12/6/05, 1/4/06, 1/25/06, and 2/24/06. CNY was 1/29/06. I don’t know if the past is any predictor for future action by CCAA anymore, but at least it doesn’t appear that CNY caused a significant slow down.
Congratulations to all the new parents - the babies are just beautiful!! It has been inspiring to look at their pictures!
M.
LID 10/11/05
January 4th, 2007 at 6:46 pm
RQ, We were really hoping all of 2005 would be included in the next poll. Our LID is 12-09-05 and we really wanted to see how many others were LID in early December. Any chance you could add December? Thanks again for all the information you give us. Hope you will soon see your little ones face.
Becky
12-09-05
January 4th, 2007 at 7:58 pm
Number cruncher,
I think the numbers are low for Sept because all those people who mailed their dossiers in Sept were logged in in October. Many people waited 6 weeks or so…
PJM
DTC 9/23
LID 10/26 (ouch)
January 4th, 2007 at 8:39 pm
New to site, kind of surprised at some of the language in some of the comments. I am sure the CCAA can figure out what F*** means. We are at their mercy and need to be gracious and have some class when discussing how they do things. Thanks, those of us who are in it for the long run appreciate it.
January 4th, 2007 at 8:54 pm
From a particular agency’s website (not mine, but I refer to these dates a fair bit)…
Here’s a bit of history for the New Year referrals over the last four years: 2006 2005 2004 + one batch in 03
January 5/06 + January 25/06 + then February 27/06
January 6/05 + January 31/05 + then March 17/05
December 30/04 + January 22/04 + then March 10/04
+ then February 23, 2003 (they have nothing listed before the Feb 23 batch)
So, if history shows us anything, we will likely get an end of January 2007 referral batch, and then another one in March. But who really knows…my personal wish is that we get one at the end of the month and then another one (albiet smaller) before cny….coz I’m hoping that batch is mine!!!
Snick
lid Oct 31/05
January 4th, 2007 at 9:39 pm
Thanks snick that info helps alot. What do you think the cut-offs will be for the next few months?
LID Nov 30th 2005
January 5th, 2007 at 1:03 am
Snick,
I hope I am in that batch (of cookies, snickerdoodles of course) with you!
PJ Mama
In my PJ’s and staying up too late as usual. 40 years old and just got my first dishwasher and ran my first load tonight! Yay1
lid 10/26/05 (the one after next??)
By the way, mrs u, you are a young pretty lady, not the amish apron and bun wearing matron I was picturing given your sign-off. Congratulations on your referral.
January 5th, 2007 at 2:27 am
Bruno1, RQ has already told us her own projection. She wrote September 28th (she missed it by 1 day), October 13th, and October 26th.
And Snickerdoodle, ever since the new director of the CCAA took over in October 05, no statistics prior to that seem to matter any more.
Blossombaby 10.25.05
January 5th, 2007 at 10:53 am
Why are there people voting for the first 5 days of October?? Weren’t they closed that week?? I just saw votes for the first couple of days of the month.
I really hope that it is people that were LID in 06′ that just messed up…. What is going on? Sorry, folks, my sanity just took a little trip when I saw the new results. It looks as if 9/29 keeps increasing everytime that I look at it.. It is at 70 now, which is more than when the last poll closed. October 10 is higher as well!
Our LID is 10/10 so I was hoping for our referral to come in the next batch, but I’m not so confident now that the poll is increasing so much for the 29th and for the beginning of October. (sigh)
Claire
10/10/05