How Long till the next batch?
This is a bit tricker this month. We know that in the past the CCAA has sent a batch out before they left for their Spring Festival (what we call Chinese New Year).
As I said the other day, if they are going to get a batch out before CNY then they would be mailing them around February 15th to arrive February 19th. The time between January 2nd and February 19th is 48 days. I just have to believe that they are not going to wait that long between batches. I’m not saying that they will or won’t, just that I really hope they do not.
The least amount of time between referrals has been 23 days. It is possible they are going to do two quick batches before they leave for CNY. Consider that 23 plus 23 equals 46 – there is time for two batches. It is possible. I’m not sure I would call it probable, but it is possible.
But, back to my “least and most” analysis as I’ve done in previous months, if we look at the past 21 batches to get our outer limits then we can expect referrals to arrive between January 25th and February 9, inclusive.
January 5th, 2007 at 7:20 pm
Count me in for a vote for January 25th!
January 5th, 2007 at 7:26 pm
So if they did get two batches in would that mean they could possible get to the end of Oct.?
January 5th, 2007 at 7:42 pm
My vote is for 1/25 my hubby is voting for 1/29. This actually happening.
Sue
10/10/05
January 5th, 2007 at 7:42 pm
Do you think that if they do two quick batches that they would be “full” batches in terms of size of the batch? Or would they only refer 75% of the normal number?
LID 10/26/05
January 5th, 2007 at 7:54 pm
To save my sanity, I’m planning on one batch to arrive before CNY. I can’t quite give up on making it in, but I’m giving us 50:50 odds.
LID 10/13/05
January 5th, 2007 at 8:06 pm
I too would like to see two smaller batches (well, I’d *really* like to see two regular sized batches!) come by cny…but only ccaa knows what ccaa is going to do, so I’m going to take as many deep breaths as I can, and remember this for the next 54 days! Wish me luck! I wish every Oct lid luck. :)
Snick
lid Oct 31/05
January 5th, 2007 at 8:20 pm
Two batches works for me! Each batch brings us closer!
TJ
10.18.05
Anti-spam word is diapers. Too funny. Thinking that I’ll actually be changing diapers in the not too distant future brought a smile to my face….I think I’m losing it!
January 5th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
If I was doing a w.a.g., it would be this – that they’ll do their normal end of January referrals, which would reach us late Jan or early February; then another batch of referrals at the end of February, which would reach us late Feb or early March. In other words, no change from what they’ve been doing every month…the only difference being that Feb will contain a big holiday; which could likely affect how many referrals they get done that month. Will be interesting to see. I do love the idea of 2 batches by C.N.Y., but I can’t bring myself to think it.
Blossombaby
January 5th, 2007 at 8:52 pm
Off the subject…..Did anyone just see the segment right now on cnn about adoption? It was as if they assume we are all adopting from China just because those from Asian descent are assumed to be smart? I am shocked at the assumptions.
January 5th, 2007 at 8:56 pm
OH MY GOODNESS!!!! I cannot believe what I just witnessed on CNN’s Paula Zahn. So many generalizations were made about Americans adopting from China, and NONE of them applied to me. Who do they think they are? I’m heading to the CNN website and I’m going to give Paula Zahn and her panel of opinions this adoptive mom’s opinion. UGGHHHHH! As if we haven’t been put through enough already.
January 5th, 2007 at 8:57 pm
Hello Friends. Although I liked the original dates better, I am always glad to hear the truth (or as close to the truth as we can get considering all the variables.) Thanks for all you do RQ.
Question: Although I know the CNY starts Feb 18 (a Sunday) when does the celebration/holiday end for CCAA? In other words when will they be back at work? If they are out for 2 weeks (I don’t know why I am thinking this) then that would take us into early March. So let’s say they send out referrals early Feb, then would they work on the next batch for 10 days (just an example, could be 8 or 6 days) set those dossiers aside til after vacation, then pick them up again and take them to completion — say mid March?? OR would it make more sense for them to clear their desks of the families they have matched before they leave the office. I don’t know about you, but I don’t like to have things “hanging” when I leave for vacation.
Anyway, could someone please help me talk this out.
Thanks.
LID 10-11-05
January 5th, 2007 at 8:58 pm
chestnut; I watched the show too; Its that kind of show that gives journalism a bad name: a fundamental lack of understanding of why people chose to adopt any child. Very sad.
January 5th, 2007 at 8:59 pm
Chestnut,
I am shocked with the CNN “News” update. I though I was watching an episode of Jerry Springer. I tuned in hoping to hear a little information and instead all I saw was ignorance.
I’m also crossing my fingers for a referral batch the beginning of February. Oh, and if they could include 10.17 that would be great too.
Elizabeth
January 5th, 2007 at 9:02 pm
I have already been to the Paula Zahn website and stated my complete shock at their lack of journalistic integrity!!! I have never been a CNN fan and tuned in only for this program…it only confirmed my reasons for not watching their programming in the first place.
Now my thoughts off the poor ignorance of the PZ panel and onto my future daughter (notice I said daughter not DOCTOR!)
Triple H DTC —very soon!
January 6th, 2007 at 12:16 am
RQ – What do you think the chances are that the CCAA have already matched some of September 29 but didn’t send them out ? Do they just arbitrarly stop at the day that they know they can complete (Sept 27this time) or do they match all of the children that they receive that month and if they are only half way through a date (in this case Sept 29), send the referrals to the day previous (i.e. Sept 27) ? I guess I’m hoping that they may already have gotten partly through September 29 with matches last month and that they may, as a result, get further into October this time. Is this a possibility?
January 6th, 2007 at 4:01 am
Sister – surely if they had got to the 29th they would have sent out the 28th (a much smaller day)?
Just a thought,
Kate
http://kes44p.blogspot.com/
January 6th, 2007 at 4:09 am
Promise,
It does not seem like the organized machine CCAA likes to portrait if they were to leave work undone during the holiday. It seems like they would want to clear off their desks and then start again on the next batch when they return from CNY. That is why over the last number of years we have seen a batch go out right before the CNY holiday. So, I cannot imagine them leaving undone referrals on their desk to pick up weeks later. It just does not seem in their nature.
Elizabeth,
Im sooooo with you. I pray we make it in the next batch. I am still holding out hope. With a tiny batch this time I just cant imagine them doing another tiny batch. It seemed logical this batch would be small with all the backlash from the new rules. Next month there really isnt anything to make this a small month (not like CCAA needs a reason). I am majorly holding out hope for January. It makes me crazy when I see people with a 10-13 LID saying that they dont think they will make it in this batch. It is a nobrainer that they will. I think it’s a nobrainer that people up until @ 10-13 to 15 will be in the next batch. I know we are on the cusp but I feel good about this month and even if we dont make it into this batch, I think CCAA will do 2 batches BEFORE CNY, therefore if we dont make it into this batch, we hopefully will not be later than mid Feb. But lets not let our brains think that way. Say this chat with me “WE 10-17 LID’ers WILL BE IN THE NEXT BATCH!!!! WE 10-17 LID’ers WILL BE IN THE NEXT BATCH!!!!…….”
Christy
10-17-05
http://www.bock.redthreadkids.org
January 6th, 2007 at 9:47 am
ke344p
According to the latest RQ poll, there is no one logged in for the 28 th. Why, if they had finished the 27 th wouldn’t they say the 28th? Just hoping that this month will be a quick month as maybe they will have tackled some of the 29th. Is this possible RQ?
January 6th, 2007 at 10:16 am
with an LID of Oct. 14th 05′ and a birthday on Jan 27th…..could this be the best birthday gift ever???? I will even settle for the best Valentines Day gift ever!!!!!!!!
January 6th, 2007 at 10:24 am
Sister:
The poll does not say there is no one logged in on the 28th. All it says is no one who resopnded to the poll said they were logged in on the 28th. There is a very big difference.
Since the respondants to the poll were not randomly selected, the results of the poll can not give us any information at all about how many people were logged in on any given day or in any given month. Nor can it give us any information about whether one month has more applicants than any other month. For all we know, October might have less applicants than September, and November might have less again.
Unless we know that 100% of the applicants participated in the poll, and that they all participated exactly once, the results of this sort of poll just can not give us that sort of information.
January 6th, 2007 at 10:46 am
Number Cruncher – FAQ, Number 12
Everyone else, the poll has only been up a few days. Please see previous polls if you want to get an idea of how things may look.
January 6th, 2007 at 7:10 pm
I think I am getting over my devastation from last Thurs…when I was “skipped” in this batch. We made the cut off date, but was skipped due to the fact CCAA requested new passport pic’s in Apr 06. I was never told my LID was apparently changed. I simply found out Thurs…my referral was not included!
Since I’m not looking at a cut off date now…for myself…but will hope and praywe are in the next batch, and that will be before the CNY!
Hoping to see my sweet Marlee next month!
Judy
LID 9/26/05
January 21st, 2007 at 4:10 pm
This is dissapointing…I was hoping they would get 2 batches in before CNY…