January 5th Analysis – Take Two
The good thing about computers is that they are capable of making a whole lot of calculations very accurately and very quickly. The bad thing about computers is that if one thing is off then they are capable spitting out a whole lot of wrong answers very quickly.
I am soooo sorry about the first analysis post, but I thank the person who brought it to my attention.
With that in mind, here is my prediction for the next two months:
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As always, the CCAA could choose to do a lot more or a lot less than they have done in previous months. This is just saying that if they do about the same number of referrals as they have been doing, that the next cut off should fall between October 10th and October 17th inclusive, give or take a few days.
And anytime you think my math might be off please feel free to either email me or PM me or leave a note in the comments. I do tend to get a bit irritated when my grammar is corrected (uffect, anyone?), but if you see a math error please let me know.
January 5th, 2007 at 12:14 pm
Yeah, this is pretty much what I came up with. :( I so want to believe that I can make that “second” batch from now…
Better to be prepared I guess. It is just so hard on my daughter I want to cry sometimes. I don’t know how the first-timers can handle this at all.
PJ Mama
Who promised we would get baby when daughter was 5, and whose daughter turned 6 last month.
LID 10/26
January 5th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
So even with your good case scenario, I’ll be lucky to be in China by the end of summer with my 11/30-05 lid. One full year longer than I expected at the start of the process, and 10 months longer than the worst case estimate my agency gave when I was DTC’ed.
I’m gonna go have a little cry now.
January 5th, 2007 at 12:28 pm
Thanks RQ, you work so quickly! Your prediction is along the same lines as I was thinking. My LID is 10/31/05 so my best guess of an April or May referral isn’t too far off.
January 5th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
Does it count if I liked the first estimates better? ;) lol
Thanks RQ…cannot wait to hopefully see your referral come through with this next batch!
I still think you Rock!
Alyson
January 5th, 2007 at 12:31 pm
Yukkie. While I’m sorry to see the correction, I’d rather be prepared. I’m so sorry I’ve told people (and my dear husband) for the last month that it looks like we’ll be in the late February batch of referrals. I tend not to believe that now. But, hey, I don’t think a one of our well meaning friends and family believed me anyway. ha.
Blossombaby 10.25.05
January 5th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
My guess (when I crunched numbers last night) was for a October 12th cutoff, so your correction is much in tune with mine now. While I was happy to see the first analysis, I know the second is much more accurate. Thanks for this, RQ!
January 5th, 2007 at 12:37 pm
p.s. good to see you on this site, girlzmama2. I’ve seen your posts before, but once you signed Alyson I knew it was you. Here’s hoping for late February’s referrals. Ellen : – )
January 5th, 2007 at 12:37 pm
dragonmom
I’m right there with you as a fellow 11/30/05 LID. Yep, about 6 months ago I gave myself a “worst case scenario” of August 2007 for a referral~thinking there was no way it would be that late. At that point I began telling people(SOOOO tired of people asking)it could be August before I see a picture. While my heart aches for her and I have shed many tears for her, it has helped me to internalize this agonizing wait. Quite frankly it just sucks.
((((((((((((HUGS))))))))) to you dragonmom, I know just how you feel.
January 5th, 2007 at 12:41 pm
dragonmom
As a fellow 11/30/05 LID I know just how you feel.
(((((((((((HUGS))))))))) to you dragonmom.
We’ll hang in there together!
January 5th, 2007 at 12:42 pm
Hi RQ; My heart sank when you said that it could take 4-5 months to get through November; this is so awful, but at least I know; June or July for referral. I agree with these two estimates. I personally think the next cut-off will be October 14th; but obviously I could be very wrong. Lets hope good for good news. Thanks for all you hard work, I appreciate this.
January 5th, 2007 at 12:44 pm
Coming out of lurkdom at last!
blossombaby, I know what you mean! I was telling people that I was “pretty sure” that we would have a referral at the end of Feb/Mar. (Now, wouldn’t you know it, looks like we are going to be right on the knifeblade, with a 10.21 LID! And if CCAA stays true to form, I betcha we’ll have to wait another month.) When I tell people anything about the adoption now, they kind of cough and look at their feet in this embarrassed silence. I think they believe I’m delusional.
BTW, I LOVE this site, and it alone has kept me sane (or remarkably close to it) during this whole crazy, drawn out process! Thank you RQ!!
January 5th, 2007 at 12:51 pm
Thanks Blossombaby! Back at cha! :D
January 5th, 2007 at 12:55 pm
Thanks RQ for all of your time, hard work and dedication! Do you have an heir apparent or subject in training to take the helm while you travel?
This truly is a rollercoaster. I was so optimistic at the start of the week. I had begun to let my guard down and get excited. I was hopeful for an April referral with an 11/18 LID, but it’s looking more like May or even (UGGGGGH) June. If it gets pushed to July just call the looney bin and make me an advanced reservation! Thank God we have each other because no one else can begin to understand all of this; for me, not even my DH.
January 5th, 2007 at 12:56 pm
I guess because of my 04/24/06 LID, it will be very cheap to go to the movies once our daughter comes home. One child and two senior citizen discount tickets please! Maybe we’ll take our flying car to the airport too……
Kristen
January 5th, 2007 at 1:00 pm
Thank you RQ for all of your time, hard work and dedication. Do you have an heir apparent or a subject in training to take the helm during your travels?
I was so optimistic at the start of the week. I had begun to let myself get excited. I was projecting an April referral with our LID of 11/18 but now it is looking more like May or (UGGGGGH) June at this point. If we’re pushed back to July, just call the looney bin and make me an advanced reservation. ;) Thank God we have each other. No one else can begin to understand all of this; for me, not even my DH.
January 5th, 2007 at 1:05 pm
PJ mama
As a first timer, it is excrutiatingly difficult. I will not even attempt to try and translate into words how difficult this is.
January 5th, 2007 at 1:14 pm
I’m so depressed right now that I don’t even want to think about it. We just got a call from our SW that our paperwork expires April 18th, and that with a 10-27 LID, theres a 50/50 chance that we won’t be back from China before our homestudy expires. We have to do it all over again.
Pjmama- We also promised our daughter that she’d be a big sister when she was 5. She turns 6 in two weeks.
I want to go back to bed and wake up when we get our surprise referral in February, and travel in late March, making it back to the US with our beautiful new daughter a full 3 days before our paperwork expires. Then I’ll pet my unicorn while sitting on a rainbow and drinking a glass of wine that was personally stomped by a barefoot Brad Pitt.
Sigh.
Lid 10-27
January 5th, 2007 at 1:15 pm
If it’s any consolation, our daughter wasn’t waiting as long as we were. While we began our wait in August of 05′ with an “expected Feb to Apr referral” based on our 8/30/05 LID, our daughter wasn’t born until March 14 2006. We finally got our referral on 11/30/06. Plus she is in foster care so we count ourselves lucky because of the quality of the care she is getting. Now of course the wait for TA is killing us. When will they come?!?!
I check here at least 10 times a day hoping for some news. I don’t bother calling the agency because they ever seem to know anything until it’s official. Thanks,
Waiting, not so peacefully in RI.
http://www.threewillcomehome.com
January 5th, 2007 at 1:15 pm
I liked the first one too, but this one seems just a bit more realistic :(
Judy
LID 10/10/05
January 5th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
With at 12/20/05 LID, where would that put us? I was thinking at the beginning of the week, we’d have our referral by June/July. Now, do I dare think August/Sept?
Any other 12/05er’s have an opinion?
Part of me wants to refuse to believe this, but part of me is taking it in slowly.
UGHHH!!!!
January 5th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
Didn’t the CCAA make a statement a little while back that led us to believe that October 2005 was one of their biggest LID months ever? Does anybody remember this? If this is true, are they really going to be able to get through October in a couple of months. With an 11/16 LID, I certainley hope so, but I am preparing myself for it to take 3-4 months just to get to the end of October.
January 5th, 2007 at 1:20 pm
I think the statement was that they had received more in October.
The ones received in October were mostly logged in during November, I think.
January 5th, 2007 at 1:20 pm
A question for anyone who knows: in the past few years, has CCAA done 12 batches of referrals per year? Seems like if they keep stretching them out to 34-35 days per referral it would definitely cut it down to 11 or even 10.
Anyone have the numbers?
January 5th, 2007 at 1:20 pm
PJ Mama,
I know how you feel. My bio daughter is 5 and is longing for her sister..now I find myself telling her she will be 7 or 8 when we get to bring her sister home. Aghhhh!
Also I was thinking and it is probably ignorance with the system but if come May 07 the CCAA has a drastic decrease, say 50%, in dossiers…is it conceivable that they could put more man power in other areas than dossier log in etc. and this might cause a speed up? I realize that the back up is tremedous but more man/woman power might mean a speed up in processing etc. Guess I’m clinging to any hope I can …not even DTC yet!!
January 5th, 2007 at 1:22 pm
Well, I like both scenarios for my own selfish reasons..;-) However, I like the first one better since it goes through more LIDs for my cyberpals logged in after the 10th. I can’t wait to see what happens next month though.
I will also say that as a first timer, this is very hard.. I think it would stink regardless of whether I had a muchkin or not in my home already!
Claire
LID 10/10/05 (next??)
January 5th, 2007 at 1:34 pm
mcginnisc; I think you probably have a really good chance of being next. I worry for LID dates after your date though…
And you are right; this is hard whether you have kids already or not…. HOwever, I am happy for you that you have a really good chance of being NEXT. Keep the ???; no point jinxing anything. As if… When they go through November LID’s it is going to be tough; probably like the month of May-June where they did 5 daysa at a time sometimes…….
It was YUCK.
January 5th, 2007 at 1:37 pm
tripleH, I have the same thoughts. As someone else who is not even DTC I wonder what all the changes may mean for us.
Congrats to all those who have recently seen their baby’s faces! I looked at many of them and they are just darling!
January 5th, 2007 at 1:46 pm
RQ
people are asking you if you will continue to run this site or have a replacement. Reminds me of the Dread Pirate Roberts from Princess Bride. There could be multiple RQs, all trained under the previous one. The original RQ could be retired somewhere. We would never know.
Oh, and on that thread (-:, how do we know whether RQ got her baby or not? Her child could be one of the cuties we are looking at this month. She has never told her LID.
January 5th, 2007 at 1:47 pm
RQ,
I love seeing the baby photos!! Thank you for grouping the sites together for easier viewing.
Can you add our blog to your adoption blogs?
seventhdiamond.blogspot.com
Paperchasing since 5/06
January 5th, 2007 at 1:54 pm
gosh… this month is really going to be a ‘nail-biter’ for us 10/10/05 LIDers…. I am so stressed already…
January 5th, 2007 at 1:56 pm
Ahhhhhhhhhhh, finally, my lid in a “good case scenario”. I knew it would happen one day…I never thought it would take 2 years, but ahhhhhhh, it’s FINALLY there. Happy Days!
Thanks RQ!
Snick
began paperchasing February 2005
dtc October 17, 2005
lid October 31, 2005
referral: February… March 2007????
P.S. anti-spam word: family!
January 5th, 2007 at 1:56 pm
wait4hannah,
Heck, I have to hope it will be in 2007! The president of my company was the one who approved me carrying over my 2006 vacation to 2007. Can’t imagine what they would say if I had to ask again, and there is no place but China that I want to spend that many weeks! Although right now there are times I do dream about being on a beach in the Caribbean, sipping on a lovely cocktail…..sigh
When someone asks about the referral timing, and my dh starts to respond with a “We think in……”, he gets a nudge. I am unwilling to speculate any longer.
January 5th, 2007 at 2:01 pm
Rhodyred,
Where are you in RI? My brother is in Hope Valley and adopted 2 years ago.
January 5th, 2007 at 2:08 pm
I liked the first analysis better, too. When 9/29 wasn’t included, I knew that could be bad news for us. I fear we are on the cusp now.
LID 10/13/05
January 5th, 2007 at 2:13 pm
Thanks RQ for your calculations…they line up with my projections as well, based on the number of “working days” the previous batches covered.(For the record, my projections were Oct 14, and Nov 2 cutoffs for the next 2 batches)
With a 11/07/05 LID we were *hoping* for an end Feb referral, but given the numbers an end of March referral is much more likely. Excited….not too many weeks now!!!
January 5th, 2007 at 2:22 pm
My best case projection:
February-October 9th
March-October 26
April-November 9
May-November 26
With a LID of 11/22/05 my best case is May. June is probably more realistic and July is worst case.
January 5th, 2007 at 2:32 pm
adventures –
I fully agree with your projections for best-case, and we have the same LID as you.
I also agree with this, and this is what I have been telling people:
“With a LID of 11/22/05 my best case is May. June is probably more realistic and July is worst case. ”
I can live with that ;)
January 5th, 2007 at 2:34 pm
Well, my heart be still. If it’s an end of February referral for me, then it’s only 54 days until referral!! A person has GOT to love that!
Adventures, I’m holding out for an end of Feb, beginning of March referral. I simply can’t wait for April. Uh, uh. No way, wouldn’t be prudent. heh, heh, heh :)
January 5th, 2007 at 2:35 pm
Back in the summer, I recall the CCAA made a statement to either the dutch or australian gov/officials that the wait would reach 24 months by the end of 2007. That means Dec 07 for some (late?) Dec 05 LIDs. I think that fits with the rate projected out here, esp. knowing we’re going into the biggest months yet. Maybe instead of projecting forward we could project backwards from that? Not with my math, though. (
January 5th, 2007 at 2:52 pm
adventures -
I fully agree also with your projections. With a 9 nov LID, we will be just in or just out in april.
January 5th, 2007 at 3:02 pm
Cheysu, get on that immigration paperwork, girl. We’re logged in 2 days ahead of you and we reluctantly re-did ours. Thanks for the laugh.
Blossombaby
January 5th, 2007 at 3:04 pm
Thank you RQ – great as usual (you not the dates predicted). As a 1st Nov 05 LID I will be happier when I’m included in a prediction – I reckon that I will be in the third batch from now (maybe fourth) and that that will be in April. Unfortunately I don’t think that the CCAA will manage the extra batch that they usually do before CNY, so I think I will get my referral in April.
Now can we please fast forward to the next batch of referrals – I know that it’s a sin to wish time away but I want my baby!
Kate
http://kes44p.blogspot.com/
January 5th, 2007 at 3:09 pm
Okay, I am attempting not to freak out but….our LID is April 11, 2006, would a guess for our referral be 12-16 months from now, January 2007? That is, to get the referral in 2008? I mean if it is going to be that long, I don’t see a need in us getting our fingerprints and immigration application redone this summer like we had planned and discussed with our agency. What do you all think?
January 5th, 2007 at 3:36 pm
HoosierBaby,
I am on the edge right there with you. The first analysis this morning had me very hopeful, now I am just trying to hold on yet once again. I did call my agency and they think we still have a decent shot at it, but they also thought we would have our referral last fall :-(
I think that this whole process actually gets worse, the closer you get, especially when your LID is neatly placed somewhere between the good and the bad. I just hope that it doesn’t get ugly…
January 5th, 2007 at 3:39 pm
Cheysu-
We have the same LID-our paperwork expires on 3/29-I have finally re-filed everything-I keep hoping that since I gave up on a February referral that I will be surprised! Loved the rest of your post-when all of that happens, I want to share with you!
question-we rec’d paperwork about travel today from our agency-asking for all of our passport info and who would be booking our trip-I was surprised but wondering if that normally means that they think you will get your referral within a certain time frame-
It may mean nothing but after this week, I was still excited to see something in writing that we would be preparing to travel-
Thanks-Have a great weekend & keep posting those sweet pictures-
Angel
January 5th, 2007 at 3:57 pm
scandwaiting,
You have to renew your I-600A within 18 months or it will be considered abandoned and you’d have to start all over again (homestudy, fingerprints, etc.). Unfortunately it has to be renewed every 18 months. We are almost DTC and it looks like we may have to renew TWICE before our referral. An expensive process since just a homestudy update alone costs a whopping $1,000! Cha-ching! Curse whatever forces are conspiring to make me wait three years for my second daughter!!!!
January 5th, 2007 at 3:58 pm
Waitforhanna~ I have a 12-28 LID and can’t even begin to think that we might wait until the fall…or longer?!?
I think I am going to plan on the fall to start coming to terms with it. Hang in there!
January 5th, 2007 at 4:00 pm
Wow … wish I hadn’t tuned back in today! The new predictions
are not what I wanted to hear … not even April is likely for me?
And to boot, I bet I will end up as one of those folks on the bad end of a cusp! I was trying to be patient and positive but that is
out the window. Let’s see what the next batch brings!!!
http://www.questforcadence.blogspot.com
January 5th, 2007 at 4:08 pm
I am going to cross my fingers and pray for things to speed up for everyone………deep breaths……lots and lots of deep breaths……….
January 5th, 2007 at 4:19 pm
One thing we forget is that all the number crunching is not worth a hoot in a hailstorm! The CCAA is going to do whatever they please, and all the wishing hoping and complaining is just killing time. The only real conclusions we can draw is that on average, about two weeks of referrals are issued for each month that passes. So if your LID is 5 months away, you can realistically expect 9 to 11 more months till referral.
That said, from information I have seen, October was a BIG month for LID, nearly two months of mailings were logged in during October. Assuming the volume of dossiers mailed was about the average, it would not surprise me to see 3 to 4 months to clear all of October. I hope it doesn’t, but I’m afraid it will. I hate the wait, we were LID 1/12/06, and then we thought good chance to have her for xmas06, but now I’m not too sure about xmas07. But even if October goes slow, it will probably happen, but maybe just barely.
January 5th, 2007 at 5:04 pm
luckymama2one~
I don’t understand what difference it would make if the I600 were “abandoned” or not, you still need to submit the same info to USCIS either way, don’t you?? There’s no streamlined process for renewing that I’m aware of. We were told to let everything expire in order to avoid the possibility of having to obtain a total of 3 I171s.
Also, I asked earlier but did not notice a response, how many referral batches do they do each year? I wonder because it seems like they keep stretching out the time between which would cause a slowdown on its own.
January 5th, 2007 at 5:21 pm
wait4hannah,
I have been thinking for a long time now that with a 12/14/05 LID, we would get a referral in July. Today, I’m not sure anymore. I’m really, really sad about this. Will my daughter ever see her sister?
January 5th, 2007 at 5:29 pm
waitingformaiya — we have the exact same LID. Your post on not relying so much on the number crunching reminds me that maybe the CCAA will still speed up again. A speed up is possible, yes? It is all I can hope, dream, and pray for! In the meantime, I am just longing for my baby like everyone here. All we can do is have faith that China might speed up and be thankful that they will allow us to adopt. Best wishes, everyone, as we try to have the patience of saints. My agency keeps telling me that it WILL happen. I want with all of my heart to believe it!
January 5th, 2007 at 6:02 pm
Wow, this news is terrible. Our lid is 4.4.06 and since June, and every month since then, I’ve been saying,” Next time this year she’ll be with us.” So, I felt okay thinking that next January (2008) we’ll get our referral. I thought I was being pretty conservative with my outlook. But now it just seems to get worse–nothing is getting better. I feel so lost–and all the extra money we’ll have to spend and all the running around we’ll have to do. I understand and believe it WILL be worth it, but this is more pain I just never knew I was signing on for. My arms are aching.
January 5th, 2007 at 6:27 pm
To my fellow LID 11-09-05ers. I was hoping for a March referral (have been saying this for months now) but now I am thinking it may be April. Trying to put a positive spin on this. If April, that may mean travel in June, which would mean having the summer off with my daughters! I’d love to wish for a speed up, but I just can’t get my hopes up. Let’s all keep our purple fingers crossed- and put a crown on them too for luck!
January 5th, 2007 at 6:37 pm
Damn!!!!
Stefanie
LID 10/17/05
January 5th, 2007 at 6:49 pm
RQ, I still love ya girl but I sure hope you are wrong. I was really bummed out after I saw the projections. While I completed understand how you came up with the numbers, I really just don’t see it. This is my theory. We will see a little speed up after CNY because less people will be applying to the adopt from China because of the new reg’s. So… they will take some people from the review room and move them to the matching room, and more babies will be matched
Also, I just don’t believe that after all the OCT LID’s are referred they are going to go back to referring one week of LID’s at a time. For example, if it takes four months to get through November that means come March referrals will only go from November 1st to the 7th. Then April referrals will be for Nov. 8th to the 14th. I just don’t see it happening. No way. I sure hope I’m right.
Trying to stay positive, if not they may have to admit me to the looney bin. Really.
NOV. 30th LID
January 5th, 2007 at 6:50 pm
kbdelarosa:
I laughed right out loud when I read your post. It really felt good too, after all of these depressing referral predictions. I can totally relate, we aren’t getting any younger either! My husband and I went to the movies the other night and saw Rocky 6. We laughed and thought by the time we get our baby we’ll be saying two for Rocky 10 please! By the way, this is my first time posting! I’ve been a lurker for months!
Diane
LID 1/23/06
January 5th, 2007 at 6:53 pm
Bruno1 — LOVE your ideas…keep those postive thoughts coming!
January 5th, 2007 at 7:10 pm
>This is my theory. We will see a little speed up after CNY because >less people will be applying to the adopt from China because of the >new reg’s. So… they will take some people from the review room >and move them to the matching room, and more babies will be >matchedAlso, I just don’t believe that after all the OCT LID’s are >referred they are going to go back to referring one week of LID’s at >a time. For example, if it takes four months to get through >November that means come March referrals will only go from >November 1st to the 7th. Then April referrals will be for Nov. 8th to >the 14th. I just don’t see it happening. No way. I sure hope I’m >right.
It sure would be nice if you were… but unfortunately, history in the past year has shown the numbers don’t lie. How would any speed-up be possible when you consider November is quite a bit bigger than October, and here it’s been 2 months to get to 27 September already – with September known to be smaller than October? I think it’s VERY likely they’ll only refer a week or so at a time because *they don’t go by number of days* – but by number of dossiers. And there are LOTS of dossiers to get thru.
I think “we” get all hung up on number of days referred… but to the CCAA, none of this matters – all they are doing is matching available babies to parents’ files. Apparently, when they get thru however many paper-ready files they are allowed to match each month, that’s it.
I haven’t seen anything anywhere has remotely hinted that CCAA even WANTS to “speed up” – in fact, everything points to the very opposite. :(
I’m not trying to burst any bubbles, but not facing reality is what puts people thru the wringer – the “roller coaster”. I’m LID Dec 05, and not at all happy about what I thought would be a 6-month wait turning into an 18-20-month or more wait. But, there’s nothing I can DO about it!
Nuthin’ left to do but smile… or try to, anyway!
January 5th, 2007 at 7:19 pm
I completely understand that the CCAA doesn’t go by the number of days, but by the number of dossiers. But, we are talking about human beings here and I really believe that the people at the CCAA truly want these babies to have homes as quickly as possible. They will do everything they can to move things along faster.
January 5th, 2007 at 7:36 pm
I just don’t see how extra man power will help with a speed up if the reason for the slow down really is “not enough paper ready children.” Won’t the speed up have to come from the orphanages getting more children paper ready? I thought a while back the CCAA said something about getting more orphanages into the IA program, have we heard anything more about that. With a 9/06 LID I feel we may never get there.
January 5th, 2007 at 8:03 pm
scandwaiting and luckymama2one – I specifically asked this question to our very large China only agency and was told we only need everything to be valid and up to date at the time of referral. Clarified (a few times by me!) that means that we only need to redo everything once, and at the rate things are going, we should have a pretty clear heads up when we need to get moving on it.
We expire Sept 2007 and are logged in April 25. I fully expect to hear referral news sometime in 2008 and have to kind of put all of this away for a little while or I’ll lose my last few bits of sanity ; )
Off to bathe the two wacky kiddos I have home already!
Luckymom
January 6th, 2007 at 3:54 am
Im still keeping the faith for a late Jan/ Early Feb referral. I am soooo not giving up on this (although I know the odds are not in our favor). I have to keep believing or I will go crazy thinking I have to wait until late Feb/ Early March. Heck, I wanted to travel in March. I still believe!!!
Christy
10-17-05
http://www.bock.redthreadkids.org
January 8th, 2007 at 2:50 pm
I too am keeping hope alive for a late Jan/Feb referral. However, I am thinking that a Feb/Mar referral (or possible a pre CNY referral) would be more likely. We had to redo a lot of our paperwork a few months ago so we are all set to get “the call.” I think we are going to be right on the cusp of the Jan/Feb group.
3+ in Seattle
LID 10-18-2005