January 5th Analysis
Please see THIS POST for the January 5th Analysis.
As I look at the numbers I see that this month is probably a similar size to the August 24th referral batch. A small one, but still in the realm of the bad case scenario.
With that in mind, here is my prediction for the next two months:
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The November 1 prediction is actually a bit hazier than normal because of the way I’ve had to extrapolate some data.
And, as always, the CCAA could choose to do a lot more or a lot less than they have done in previous months. This is just saying that if they do about the same number of referrals as they have been doing, that the next cut off should fall between 10/18 and 10/23 inclusive, give or take a few days.
January 5th, 2007 at 9:06 am
Thanks RQ
This process has turned me into such a colossal pessimist that i barely even glanced at the good case scenario. I just figure on the ‘bad case’ probably minus a few days…As always, i have a shred of hope that i am wrong, which is what keeps me going
January 5th, 2007 at 9:11 am
I have, as many, been a long time ‘lurker’. This is my first post
here (I’ve been on the forum a bit). From my own weak ‘analysis’ I’ve deduced that with a Nov. 10 LID, my best case is
an end of March referral, but most likely April. Your analysis continues to keep this a reality for me. I am enjoying the site, even though at times, like many, I get disappointed. It is no one’s fault … it just the way things are at the moment and there is nothing we can do about it, except wait it out ……
My name says it all!
January 5th, 2007 at 9:12 am
Wow…so there is still a chance for a March referral for us! We are LID 10/28. Of course I’d rather Feb, but I am thinking the next batch comes in Feb…then the next one in March, and hopefully it will get the rest of Oct. in there.
January 5th, 2007 at 9:13 am
HI RQ; Thanks again for all your hard work; Personally I think the bad case scenario will happen; but I can live with it; its at least some consistency;;; But as a November 2005 LID; I so wish for the good case scenario.
January 5th, 2007 at 9:22 am
RQ…we are part of a group whose dossiers were sent to China on 9/23/05 and received a LID of 10/19/05. Another group at our same agency sent in dossiers a week earlier than our group (i.e., 9/16/05) but received a LID that is a week later than our LID (i.e., 10/24/05). That is, at CCAA we somehow leaped past the prior week’s group and received an earlier LID.
The reason I tell you all this is so that I can ask a question: Have you ever seen this before, and if so, do you think the CCAA might try to rectify the situation by ensuring that the 10/24/05 LID group receives referrals at the same time as the 10/19/05 LID group? It would seem that the CCAA would try to be fair to the 10/24/05 LID group by doing this. If so, then it seems unlikely to me that the cut-off date no later than your “bad case” prediction (unless they decide to do an extraordinary number of referrals).
Your thoughts?
January 5th, 2007 at 9:27 am
suzytoby – yes, I have seen this before. Many times. More than a dozen.
In one case the agency requested a rectification and it was kind of partially rectified. Sorry, I can’t really go into that farther.
In no other case, to my knowledge, has the CCAA fixed this. I’m also told that agencies have been told to not even ask for this to be fixed anymore – your LID is your LID and that is that.
January 5th, 2007 at 9:29 am
Thanks, RQ. We appreciate all you do!
January 5th, 2007 at 9:34 am
hey RQ – thanks for the prediction, it certianly helps!
I was wondering, should the chart read 05 instead of 07? Or am I confused as to what the chart represents?
thanks for your site
twOH
January 5th, 2007 at 9:36 am
{ bonks forehead }
Yes, it should read 05. Give me a few minutes and I’ll have it changed.
January 5th, 2007 at 9:37 am
I’m really hoping your analysis is close…Our LID is 10/17 & I’m REALLY hoping for a late January/early February referral. Along with all you 9/29 folks, I will be on pins & needles until that next batch of referrals comes out!!
Stefanie
LID 10/17/05
January 5th, 2007 at 9:39 am
RQ,
For the good and bad cases, I think you meant to put the year ’05… Thanks for all of your work to keep us updated. Would it be okay for me to from time to time copy portions of your entries on my bog?
January 5th, 2007 at 9:50 am
Like Eli, I am so jaded now that I actually laughed out loud when I read SuzyToby’s question about whether the CCAA might rectify the later LID (I’m so sorry Suzy..!). RQ, thank you for the update on your estimated predictions.
Blossombaby 10.25.05
January 5th, 2007 at 9:54 am
All I can say is Whoo hoo!!!!!!!!!!!
With a 10/10/05 LID, we would be in regardless in the next batch! Well, provided the CCAA doesn’t go back to 5 “days” of LIDS…. I know it’s done by number of matches, not days, but it is hard at times to look at the cutoff and remember that..;-) I’ve told the people at work that I am 98% sure that we will be in the next batch, but it could be the one after that as well. I can’t wait to see what happens in the next few weeks. Maybe if we keep extra busy, the time will fly by this month!
OOB
Claire
10/10/05
January 5th, 2007 at 9:54 am
RQ,
I realize things can change at any minute. However, with a
mid November LID, do you believe there is a good possibility
of traveling in June? Question # 2 – Is anyone aware of a service
in China that would provide support to someone traveling on
their own? Thanks for your help.
Gerry
January 5th, 2007 at 9:54 am
Thank you RQ for the site it has been a blessing for me. Looking over all the pictures of the new referral children was breath taking.
Anyway my question is….after the big LID months of oct, nov wouldn’t you predict as your older poll reflects less LID for dec, jan, feb, april, etc…those months really speed up?
January 5th, 2007 at 9:56 am
Dear RQ,
We have been following your blog for ages without taking part in any talks…So this must be a good time to say thank you for all the work you put into this. Thank you!!
January 5th, 2007 at 10:06 am
Kriss – there is an effect with the polls where most people come to the blog right after they are DTC and hang out for a bit and then leave for a long while and then come back when they are a couple of months away from their referral.
I have warned about this many times, and I was very hesitant to create a long term poll for that reason. I think it is safe to compare months that are right next to each other, but I’m not sure you should compare months farther away from each other than that.
I do think that December is smaller than November and thus will likely not take as long to get through. Yes.
I’m also afraid that November is going to take four or five months to get through, so I don’t think you should play around with thinking it might be sooner because it is smaller. I’m not saying it WILL take that long to get through, just that I’m afraid it might.
I’m sorry, but I just don’t think that at this point there is any way to predict with any certainty more than two months out.
January 5th, 2007 at 10:19 am
Hey RQ, thanks again for all you do!
With a November 30th 2005 LID what you just said made my heart sink. Four or five months to get through November!! Yikes!! What does that bring us to? JULY? That makes me sick. Sorry but not having a good day. The wait is really getting to me, and my six year old keeps saying ” Am I really getting a little sister?
January 5th, 2007 at 10:28 am
I know this is off the topic but I had to vent. We were LID the 27th, so all week we were waiting for the call, well it came this morning, but now the CCAA has told our agency that our LID is the 29th. I know that means that we are next, and I’m sure tomorrow I’ll be able to be happy about that fact, but today I have a broken heart.
January 5th, 2007 at 10:38 am
waiting for naomi,
That really sucks!!! I feel so sorry for you. Today is just not a good day.
January 5th, 2007 at 10:40 am
Thanks for all you do RQ! You make the wait (somewhat!) bearable. With a 11-9-05 I am still pulling for a March referral.
January 5th, 2007 at 10:42 am
I’ve been worried about both Oct and Nov taking a very long time to get through, these estimates for Oct make me feel better, if they can get through Oct in 2 batches (approx) then even if Nov takes 4 or so, we’re ahead of where I was worried we’d be if they took 3-5 months each.
January 5th, 2007 at 10:42 am
waitingfornaomi: Oh my gosh, I’m so sorry! That is devestating. Hang in there if you can! This is such a roller coaster ride.
January 5th, 2007 at 10:43 am
Waiting for Naomi, sorry to hear of your lid switch. It’s so frustrating! I think some of us live in fear of having our lids switched!!
Be nice to yourself, you deserve it! May I offer you some snickerdoodles? :)
Snick
lid Oct 31 and hoping it stays that way!
hoping for two batches of 3 weeks each!
January 5th, 2007 at 10:46 am
RQ – First, thanks for all that you do.
Second, do you have any prediction as to wether or not we’ll see 1 or 2 referral batches released before CCAA breaks for CNY ?
Third, When is CNY ?
Elizabeth.10.17.05 and still hoping.
January 5th, 2007 at 10:56 am
Will November really take 4-5 months to get through? Is it really that much bigger.
That is insane!!!!
January 5th, 2007 at 11:08 am
RQ, I am just a little confused with your bad case scenario. Usually, I am in total understanding of your numbers. However, if the CCAA does for the January referrals what it did for the December referrals, then they would only get through the 10th or the 11th of October.
I don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade…
Oh yeah, and a big thanks from me for all that you do, too. I know keeping up with the RQ blog can be time consuming even for me, but running it?? I wouldn’t even want to go there.
January 5th, 2007 at 11:09 am
Wow, My DH and I were thinking a referral in April or May
with a lid of 11/18/05, I think it will be June. That would
put are wait at 19-months. I am glad I am able to do some
other things to keep me busy! Hang in the November our
turn will come!!!!!
January 5th, 2007 at 11:09 am
Waiting for Naomi~so sorry to hear about the mis-information you received on LID’s. I can only imagine how terribly frustrating it is.
RQ~Thank you very much for everything you do for all of us! My question for you is that I know there were reports out that October’s numbers for dossiers was large, but I must have missed the one where it mentioned November’s as well. Was there any word of these numbers somewhere and I missed it??
Here I was, beginning to get hopeful that once we got through Oct. 05 the numbers for Nov and Dec might have been smaller (with holidays and all) and that Jan 06 would be here before I knew it. Yikes!
notsopatientinseattle ~ LID 1/27/06
January 5th, 2007 at 11:09 am
This whole waiting process is getting to be insane Slow torture is what it feels like.
Every month for the last year has literally been one step forward and 2 steps back. Instead of moving toward our goal every day it seems to get farther away!
It is enough to make anyone crazy or depressed. If they don’t speed up I think we will all be on anti-depressants–luckily we are grandfathered in. Right????
I am so frustrated I am seriously looking into other countries If it takes 4 months to get through November my DH will really go bonkers!!! He has been so good through all of this –now he is getting aggravated also!
January 5th, 2007 at 11:28 am
snickerdoodles sound fantastic, and how about a whole lot of chocolate to go with it. I have to pick up my 5 year old from kindergarten in a half hour, and I think we will go out to lunch!!
Thanks to all for your words of encouragement. It definatly does make it a little better to know there are people out there that truely understand.
Lisa
January 5th, 2007 at 11:35 am
So some of you are thinking 4-5 months Just to get through the month of November? You’ve got to be kidding me! I was certainly expecting 3 months, but 4-5! You must really be planning on a slowdown. These are drastically different predictions from what I’ve read on this site the past few days. So that puts late Nov LIDer’s at a July referral or maybe August?
Okay late Novembers… help me out! Anyone got any better news?
January 5th, 2007 at 11:45 am
I was as clear as I could be that I was afraid it would take that long, but that I wasn’t saying it would.
It took that long to get through previous large months, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility. It doesn’t mean that’s what I think will happen, just that it is possible and I’m afraid it might.
January 5th, 2007 at 11:45 am
kjdjh – you are right. My spreadsheet has a problem that I didn’t see when I did this.
I’ve posted that I’m working on a correction.
January 5th, 2007 at 11:47 am
hey tvanhyfte, I suspect something is not quite right here with that projection. Take a deep breath. RQ will figure it out……
January 5th, 2007 at 11:49 am
Gerry-
Lots of people go solo to China – I did and it worked out fine. Please considering posting a message on the Forum about this. I am sure that you’ll get quite a few responses.
I know that there’s a Yahoo group to match people who would like a travel companion with people who have previously adopted from CHina and who would like to go back again as a travel companion.
January 5th, 2007 at 1:37 pm
Thank you for replying to my message WESTWING-
I must’ve sounded very frantic in my post! I really didn’t get 4-5 months based on RQ’s analysis. I actually didn’t put too much into that since my LID is further away than her chart. I was just reading what some others were predicting. I am confused about something though… has it actually ever taken 4-5 months to get through one month of LID’s? I guess I thought I’ve been paying pretty close attention to what’s been going on and I’ve never noticed it has taken that long. I realize things will probably continue to slowdown. I am expecting that- but to think we are 7-8 months out yet seems drastic. Yesterday I was actually feeling okay and today I’m freaking out!
January 5th, 2007 at 6:01 pm
tvanhyfte-
Oh boy, May of 05 took FOREVER to get through; two months alone just to get through one of the days.