Preliminary Poll Results
If your log in date falls between September 28 and November 26 of 2005 and you have not already voted in the poll, please do so. Clicking on the poll image will take you to the poll so you can vote.
We can’t use the new poll for analysis until we have had at least one referral group off of it, but I know a lot of the November people are pretty anxious to see how the numbers fall in November.
I know of people who insist that their agency told them their LID falls in the first week of October. I’m not really sure what to think of this. Since the CCAA was closed that week, one would think that an error was made.
January 10th, 2007 at 12:29 pm
I would love to see them get through at least the 17th becuase there are so few early Oct. LID. With a LID of 11/5/05 I am ready to see some movement. But that chunk in mid-October seems really big.
January 10th, 2007 at 12:32 pm
PinkPunch I agree…
With a LID of the 7th of Nov, I think we are looking at a minimum of 3 months before they get to me – although at this point that would be great news.
January 10th, 2007 at 12:35 pm
Thanks RQ. The numbers look daunting; but at least we have them. It helps me at least have a better sense of the ‘when to expect a referral’. I really hope it does not take 4-5 months to get through November!!! I think it will take this long to get through both October and November, but then what do I know. You are usually right; so I am telling myself May-July for November now; with travel July -September; YUCK!!!
My guess for the end of this month is October 10-12th; but it would be great if they made it further. I will now say SOB; with SOOB (some of october or I will bust).
Thank-you again.
January 10th, 2007 at 12:39 pm
P.S I forgot to say it actually feels good to make the polls after watching them since last spring. I know, its a little sad, but….
January 10th, 2007 at 12:47 pm
Nice to see that Sept 28 only has one vote so far. Makes me hope that vote is a mistake, so that none has Sept 28 and that CCAA already has matched half Sept 29 but has not sent those referrals yet since they never send referrals for part of a day… and thereby next batch will be BIG!
January 10th, 2007 at 12:49 pm
RQ:
Have you given any thought of using the previous poll to calibrate this poll. Meaning using the overlapping sections of the polls to get a handle on any increase in the overall response to the poll. That would, I think, allow you to at least do an approximate look ahead using the past referral numbers.
January 10th, 2007 at 12:49 pm
Speaking for one of those that would definitely be affected by LID’s the first week of October, I have to say that I hope that even if there are a few LIDs that week, it wouldn’t necessarily prevent them from getting to our LID of the 10th… I have a horrid feeling that if there really are LIDs before the 7th then it will prevent them from going to the 10th since the end of Sept. is very large.
I keep telling people that we are possibly next, but that anything could happen. I am keeping my fingers crossed that this next batch includes part of October, maybe to the 10th or so.
Claire
LID 10/10/05 (next????)
January 10th, 2007 at 12:50 pm
This does not make me feel better about making it in the next batch. We are definitely on the edge here.
LID 10/13/05
January 10th, 2007 at 12:51 pm
windthrow – if we did not have previous polls to go by then I would consider doing that, but we have a poll with referrals on it that will most likely cover at least the next two referral batches, so there is no need to try to force this one into service before it is really ready to be used.
January 10th, 2007 at 12:54 pm
We have a yahoogroup specifically for 9-29er’s. It has been pretty quiet but with 74 of us it should be hopping with anticipation right now!!
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/chinabound29ers/
January 10th, 2007 at 12:54 pm
Yikes. There are lot more October people than I thought. I guess my hopes for a March referral with an LID of 10/28 may have flown out the window. There’s still hope, but not much. :(
January 10th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
For those who may have missed it, my predictions for the next two months can be found here.
January 10th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
I think CCAA will go by days rather than number of referrals because that is what happened in September. Most of September was pretty light except for the 29th. I wouldn’t be surprised if they only matched to around October 15th or so. To the “untrained” eye, it still looks like they are covering a lot.
January 10th, 2007 at 1:12 pm
I think if they were doing it by number of days that we’d see them do the same number of days each month.
They have stated that they match all of the babies that they have paperwork for each month. That it has nothing to do with anything else, that when they run out of babies to match then they are done for the month.
January 10th, 2007 at 1:14 pm
I don’t have much faith in the CCAA getting very far. I’m going with the cut-off being the 10th and hope I’m wrong. I guess with an early February lid I just feel like October and November are going to be agony to get through. I’ve been preparing myself mentally for months now. I was expecting August and September to be fairly easy and they weren’t/haven’t been. October and November are going to kill me.
I just wish we knew when to expect the next batch.
Clem
LID 09feb06
January 10th, 2007 at 1:24 pm
I didn’t mean *exact* number of days. But, it’s unsure if they are doing it by the amount of paper-ready babies either since we really don’t know how many paper-ready babies are available each month. I guess we’ll really never know. All of what I say of course is only my opinion.
January 10th, 2007 at 1:27 pm
I created my own referral predictor and RQ and I are within a few days of each other. Great minds? With a predicted LID of mid-January 2007, I am not going anywhere soon. According to my data table, a referral should be coming in March 2009. Am I being too pessimistic? I have heard others in the same time frame predicting referral/travel in the spring of 2008.
January 10th, 2007 at 1:30 pm
So RQ, since they have been working to get new orphanages to be IA approved and we have been seeing babies comming from orphanages that we have not seen before (inner MOngolia etc) maybe they will have more babies available this time.
I think all of you who are 10-15 and earlier are nobrainers for this referral time. I think us, being 10-17, can go either way. All of you who are 10-10 and 10-13 who are expressing your fears about not getting a referral in this batch have nothing to worry about. I know I come from no expertise but with the first week having no LID’s I cannot imagine that a 10-10 and 10-13 LID would not get a referral. I know we dont want to get our hopes up but I really think you have nothing to worry about. Heck, I am 10-17 and I am still holding out hope for a referral this time. So, keep the faith!!!
Christy
10-17-05
http://www.bock.redthreadkids.org
January 10th, 2007 at 1:30 pm
Wow, that 9/29 was a HUGE LID day, I can’t remember seeing one day this big, that would explain why they didn’t get through this day. I really hope they make it through mid Oct, that late October/Nov look big, but not as big as that single Sept day. I don’t think there will be anyway we can chant OOB, AOO…. Keeping my head up here 3/06 LID
January 10th, 2007 at 1:32 pm
Wow, these numbers are an eye opener. My LID is 10/31/05, which now puts me 4-5 months away I beleive. OK, I’m gonna go cry now…..
January 10th, 2007 at 1:32 pm
jbabes, I would think you are being a bit optimistic.
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/01/01/and-now-its-2007/
January 10th, 2007 at 1:34 pm
Worthwaitingfor – June 20th and August 24th were also very, very, large days.
January 10th, 2007 at 1:39 pm
kcbock – my bad case scenario has the cut off at 10/10.
January 10th, 2007 at 1:44 pm
I know RQ but I am choosing to bury my head in the sand and belive that “bad case scenerio” is not an option. Actually, I choose to belive your “good case scenerio” WILL happen!!!!
Hows that for optimism???
Christy
10-17-05
http://www.bock.redthreadkids.org
January 10th, 2007 at 1:45 pm
Grosnian — i had the same thought about Sept 28. I hope it was a mistake, also because if there were just a few LIDs that day ( lets assume 3 or 4, rather than one, since not everyone is on RQ) why couldnt they have referred to the 28th? — ( just to throw us a bone, if nothing else!)
January 10th, 2007 at 2:09 pm
Hi RQ,
I’m hoping that your bad case scenerio is correct. Based upon the latest numbers, I’m comming up with the following batches: 10/9 (Jan), 10/16 (Feb), 10/23 (Mar) and 10/27 (Apr)
Of course I’m being kinda of conservative on my numbers. I really hope I’m wrong
DaddyOOO
LID 10/25/05
January 10th, 2007 at 2:23 pm
DaddyOOO, with your numbers I’m looking at July. Bummer.
LID 11/22/05
January 10th, 2007 at 2:35 pm
Christy, I love your optimism, but as a 10/13er, I really felt they needed to get through 9/29 to consider myself a shoe-in. Like HoosierBaby, I think we’ll be right on the cusp. I was so anxious and nauseous last month–even knowing it wasn’t my turn–that I cannot imagine what a mess I’ll be in another few weeks.
January 10th, 2007 at 2:47 pm
DaddyO
If April is truly my WORST case, I am extreeeeemely excited. Hope we can scoot up a month though!
PJM 10/26
January 10th, 2007 at 3:30 pm
With DaddyO #s, I am looking at Sept for a LID of 12/20/05
THIS JUST SUCKS!!!
January 10th, 2007 at 3:39 pm
DaddyO:
I can’t bring myself to think about the 4-5 day referrals like last Spring! Makes 14 days seem like heaven! We’ll have to wait and see how it goes… with your numbers, I am looking for another year from March for a 2 year total with an LID of 3/06. Hope it isn’t so!
January 10th, 2007 at 3:42 pm
I’m LID 10-21 and I thought I would be in the end of Feb first weeks of March batch. With little to no LIDs from the 1st-7th. That’s only 18 days of referrals. Divided between Jan and Feb referral, thats only 9 days each. I thought I was a sure thing and now I’m starting to wonder!! This stinks. What are your guesses, do you think I’m in or out of the FEB/MAR batch. This is going to be one long month!!!!
January 10th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
I’ve done my own analysis and I think the cut-off will be Oct. 13th and then Oct. 26th. I know, it’s depressing :-(
RDT xxx.
January 10th, 2007 at 3:49 pm
I have been reading excuses for months. The Move!!
Hunan Problem!! New Rules!!! How about- things have
settled down and there will be a speed up . A girl can dream.
Gerry
LID 11/18/05
January 10th, 2007 at 4:02 pm
kelle; my own personal opinion is that LID’s for October 21 will be by the end of Feb/begining of March; just my own opinion of course. I really think this month will go between October 10-12; and next month to around the 24th or 25th; wish it would be different and this is only my own opinion. I call these estimates my SOB and SOOB predictions-but then again what do I know…. I am just another person with a November 2005 LID; I am thinking May-July for myself; with June maybe being the most realistic, but then you never know… I just keep saying that it will be an 18 or 19 month wait; and I am already almost at 14 months. Yuck!!!
January 10th, 2007 at 4:23 pm
RQ – On a slightly broader (and off topic) note – what is your opinion as to how your previous poll’s 2006 results reflect the number of 2006 dossiers actually sitting at CCAA – would you think overall there might be fewer applicants for 2006 than there were in 2005? Could this just be skewed by the fact that only people with referrals coming in the near future are reding your site religiously – any thoughts?
LauraPBS (for Project Baby Sister)
January 10th, 2007 at 4:45 pm
with an LID 30/11/05 I am dreaming of a Mother’s Day referral . My co-workers are beginning to think I am making the adoption process up. It gets longer and longer . When I started we were basically told oh yeah you will travel and be home by fall 2006 then christmas and now spring 2007 . I am so ready to go to China and grab me a baby it’s not even funny.
January 10th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
RQ,
I’m pretty new to your site – how close have your past preditictions been??
LID 10/11/05 hoping and praying to be in the next batch…
January 10th, 2007 at 4:56 pm
RQ,
Do you know on average how many referrals the CCAA has been sending out? Wasn’t sure if there was even a way to get that info. I’m really hoping we’re next with a lid of 10/12!
Thanks for all the info you provide! Even though I don’t post much I read almost every day!
January 10th, 2007 at 5:57 pm
As a 10/26er, I KNOW I’m not in the next batch (whenever it comes out), but am still hoping I might just squeeze into the following batch, with a worst case of the 3rd batch out. A few weeks ago, I thought this meant late March/early April, but with CNY I don’t know what to think. If we see a small batch in two weeks or so, and then maybe another small one right before CNY, I don’t think I’ll make the 2nd smaller batch either, which still puts me out to late March/early April. If the next batch comes out before the end of Jan, I hope they get to 10/10-12. If it is a “full-size” batch, I hope it’s more like 10/15 – I think that will boost my chances of being in the 2nd batch out.
January 10th, 2007 at 6:06 pm
cant sleep,
my thoughts EXACTLY!
PJM also 10/26!
January 10th, 2007 at 6:07 pm
Whew! I hope I am wrong, but if they only get through 10/10-10/12, at the rate it looks like it will take through July or August to get through the end of November.
LID 10/11 hopefully next, and with more of October!!
January 10th, 2007 at 7:53 pm
can’t sleep & PJ mama -
Like you with an LID of 10/26, I’m hoping to be in the next batch after this one. The waiting is so hard when it’s this close! Keeping fingers and toes crossed that we’re right!
January 10th, 2007 at 8:15 pm
RQ, What do you think will be the timeframe that matching starts going on?? I’m thinking we’ll see referrals by Jan.31 (just guessing folks!) but wondering when that matching process will start!!! Any clue???
Super duper anxious and tired of waiting!!
LID 9/29/05
January 10th, 2007 at 8:24 pm
Libligk your post made me laugh. I think the people at my work place are beginning to wonder the same thing about me. When I first received my log in date I told them I would be going around December of 2006 to get my baby. Now it looks like April of 2008 : ( with a LId of 5/31/06.
Also, I am single so numerous people at work have asked me if if have been eliminated from adopting. If I ever get the chance to adopt again I think I will keep it on the down low until I get a referral. Sometimes the questions are welcomed but, other times I am tired of answering the same questions over and over again.
January 10th, 2007 at 8:28 pm
test
January 10th, 2007 at 9:38 pm
My ‘hunch’ is the cut-off will be 10/12/05. My past 2 hunches were too conservative by about 2 days each. No math what so ever, jut a feeling after following all this for the past several months.
LID 11/23/05
January 10th, 2007 at 10:11 pm
Dear kcbock,
As a 10/13 LIDer, I have to tell you that I LOVE your optimism. I hope we get well past your date as well. Thanks for sharing that your agency also thinks that you will be in the next batch…it made me feel better. You are my new best friend!!! ;-)
P.S. Anti spam word is “baby”…as in where is mine?!?
January 11th, 2007 at 1:21 am
With Sept 29th so huge, and August and September not being the easy months we had hoped, I do not for one minute share kcbock’s optimism. Daddyooo, I have to say I don’t buy into that longer scenario. I am sticking with RQ’s time frame. And lieblingk, thank you for the laugh about your coworkers thinking you’re making up the adoption process. There is probably not a one of us who hasn’t experienced that from someone. Blossombaby 10.25.05
January 11th, 2007 at 9:48 am
RQ,
In your opinion, what was the smallest batch we have seen in the past six months. I didn’t really start tracking poll numbers until November. Obviously, the last batch was small in comparison to the November batches. For example, when they did the August 24, 2005 batch that only covered 9 days, do you know how that compared to what we have been seeing lately? I am just praying that the 1/4/07 batch is not a glimpse into the future but just a result of all of the attention due to the rules. Obviously hoping with a 10/24 LID that somehow we make the cut in late Feb/early March. We need them to get back over that 190-200 RQ families mark for that to happen… I am putting my money on 10/12-10/13 for the next batch….
Thanks for humoring me…
DJR
*Coincidence that my Anti-Spam word is CCAA today?? :)
January 11th, 2007 at 6:45 pm
RQ…thanks as always
A LONG while ago (afer July) you posted a chart showing number of days between matches and it also had in it LID date referred through and when the referral arrived with agencies. It may have had some other stuff but I don’t remember.. Anyway, where is this chart at. I have been trying to go back through all the posts, but now I am just frustrated. Any help..please and thank you.
K
11.05
January 11th, 2007 at 6:50 pm
Top right under Site Navigation: CCAA Updates & Referrals
Is that what you are looking for?
January 11th, 2007 at 6:52 pm
oops, meant to post on other thread…
January 11th, 2007 at 6:54 pm
yes, and again, thank you….chart did not give me the encouragement I was hoping for.