Projections
For those of you who have not yet read the FAQ, many of the questions I’ve seen in the past few days are answered there:
http://chinaadopttalk.com/faq/
I’d like to talk about Question #2 for a minute.
Let me say this again – I don’t know when you are going to get your referral. You are welcome to look at my analysis and try to guess, but that’s all it is. A guess. Perhaps an educated guess, but still, a guess.
I look at the data and make predictions about cut off dates. In recent months I’ve been pretty good at picking out the next cut off date within a couple of days. Anything beyond the next cut off or two is pretty hard to do.
If you want to know my latest predictions you can always click on the Analysis category in the right hand column and look through my most recent analysis posts. I’ve looked up the most recent relevant posts that might help some of you.
How Long till the next batch?
January 5th Analysis – Take Two
And now it’s 2007
Also, linked in the “Important Posts” section to the right is a post called Calculations on Backlog.
Another little exercise we sometimes do is based on the average number of days we think the CCAA may do in the future. But before we look to the future, we should look to the past. In the past 12 months the CCAA has averaged 12.9 days per batch. The smallest batch was 5 days, the largest was 19. If we look at a smaller sample, in the past 6 months they have averaged 14.1 days. Personally, I feel we need to look at the one year totals because I think that November is closer in size to some of the large months that were referred back in March and April. I believe the CCAA refers based on paper ready children available and not by number of days. This means that we need to look at how many LID’s there are to get an idea of how many days they might do.
In the table below the labels on the left hand side show the month referrals will arrive. The numbers at the top show how many average LID days per batch are done in a month. Decide how many days you think the CCAA will do in a month and then find the square under that number that includes your LID or is just after your LID and then look to the left and see when your referral will arrive if they average that many days per month.
As an example, the green cells show possible referral dates for those with a LID of 12/15. If the CCAA averages 9 days between now and then, someone with a 12/15/05 LID could expect to be in the late September or Early October batch. If they average 14 days then a 12/15/05 LID can expect to be in the late June or early July batch.
I have not taken the 9 and 11 day averages out past early January ‘06 LID’s receiving their referrals because while I think that it is possible the CCAA may slow down that much to get through November, I do not believe we will see those numbers in the long term so there is no need in having those up there as a Bad Case Scenario past those dates.
 |
I encourage everyone to come up with their best guess average and use this as a rough guide.
If it were me and I had an October LID I would not use this sheet at all but would strictly use the current polls to make my best guess.
For an early November LID I’d probably use the 11 day average as a Bad Case Scenario. For a late November LID I’d use the 9 day average. For an early December LID I’d look at the 9 and 11 day averages, and for a late December LID I’d probably look at the 11 and 13 day averages. For all of these I’d find the months and then figure a larger window by also including the months before and after.
For January, February, and March LIDs I’d probably look at the 13 and 14 day averages, again, creating a larger window by adding the months before and after.
From April until about August I’d figure somewhere between 14 and 18 days, and starting in about September I think you may be able to look at the 18 to 21 day window. Basically, from April out it’s a huge bit of guesswork but I think the average days per batch will go up even when figuring the Bad Case Scenario.
What would I use as a good case scenario? That depends on what kind of mood I’m in on any given day since I don’t think we have any numbers that point to the good case scenario. One would hope that we are through the worst of it: large LID months matched when they were recovering from the Hunan scandal. Theoretically, it won’t get any worse than batches of 5 and 7 days. And since I’m expecting this next batch to cover at least 13 days I’m hoping the worst average we may see going forward from this month would be 9 days.
January 11th, 2007 at 10:24 am
thank you once again, RQ! Another reason perhaps for early Oct LIDers not to use this chart – and instead to use poll information – is the CCAA closure during the first week of October. Your chart counts those closure days as LID days… (ie – 13 days between 9/27 and 10/10)… We don’t know whether we should consider those as 13 days or simply 7 days (sept 28,29,30, Oct 7,8,9,10)……
January 11th, 2007 at 10:26 am
RQ Do you think there is any chance that they matched some of September 29 last time but didn’t send them out as they weren’t able to complete all of September 29?
January 11th, 2007 at 10:27 am
Exactly – I’m expecting the next batch to be a minimum of 13 days in order to make it to the 10th. We have good enough data for October that there is no reason for them to need to use this spreadsheet at all.
January 11th, 2007 at 10:28 am
sister, if they had then I would have thought that they would have sent the matches for the 28th.
January 11th, 2007 at 10:29 am
RQ, thank you again for the analysis. Just as I feared, with a 12/14/05 LID we will be “on the bubble” wondering if we will make the cutoff when it finally gets to be close to our turn.
January 11th, 2007 at 10:29 am
RQ, thanks, those numbers are fascinating…
I’m confused about one thing though – please forgive my thick skull. My LID is Oct 11 2006. You suggest going forward for later LIDs that we look at the 18-21 day range? Are you suggesting you think the number of LIDs per batch will increase? Or does that give a wider range of error, since less is known?
Thanks again… these numbers actually look a little less daunting for me. N
January 11th, 2007 at 10:35 am
Natalie, I think I’m assuming that once we get beyond March that the number of LID’s per month starts going down, and that some percentage of people logged in will find another way to adopt and will pull their dossier.
There is a chance that the CCAA will have the orphanages prepare paperwork for more babies, but I’m trying not to count on that one too much.
January 11th, 2007 at 10:49 am
Wow RQ….once again, you rock! This is an amazing amount of information and we really, really appreciate your efforts on our behalf. Thank you!!
Alyson
10/26/05
January 11th, 2007 at 11:00 am
To RumorQueen and anyone who can help,
We were LID 9/12/05 and just received our referral 1/4/07. I’m looking for any guesstimates on when we may get our TA and really important When we might travel. My husband is from the Philippines and we are trying to go there first on our way to China. Another scenerio ,does anyone know if we could take her from China to the Philippines and then back to the USA ? Thank You for any help and a big thank to RQ. I love your site and probably wouldn’t have survived the “long wait” without you !
January 11th, 2007 at 11:03 am
Again, for people needing specific information about your particular case, your best resource is your agency.
Most people travel 5 to 9 weeks after referral. Some agencies are faster than others – this is very much agency and country specific.
I believe you have a small window of time (five or seven or maybe ten days) that you must arrive in the U.S. with your child after the Consulate Appointment in order for her to be processed correctly. Your agency will be the best to advise you on this.
January 11th, 2007 at 11:13 am
I thought everyone would like to know that tonight on CNN(I know I know) they will be showing a family that they have been following for two weeks in China that are adopting. My sister in law who is there now e-mailed me about it. It’s suppose to air some where between 5 & 8 she didin’t really know the exact time.
January 11th, 2007 at 11:14 am
We have a Feb. 9th LID and your projections are EXACTLY as I had projected myself based on CCAA’s matching over the past year. (I created my own spreadsheet back in June 2006.) As I expect we’ll most likely have an October 2007 referral with travel right before Christmas 2007. That will be a wait of roughly 23 months from LID to baby in arms.
January 11th, 2007 at 11:15 am
Even though CCAA was closed, people presumably kept on mailing those dossiers, so anyone past October would not see any effect (noun, not representing facial expression).
Any of us in the second half of October, well it depends when you think they logged in the dossiers received in the week they were closed. Peronally I waited 5 weeks for LID and should think there was still some lagging through the rest of the month. This could mean that they get much farther than what the chart shows for the next batch (future batch one) and perhaps less far for the next as they caught up (future batch two). Did Nov’s experience those same long lags for LID too?
PJM 10/26 and still holding a small scrap of hope for Feb/March, but it is getting pretty tattered…
January 11th, 2007 at 11:18 am
Personally, I would not travel to another country with her on a Chinese passport. I will not feel totally “safe” until we landed in the US and I knew she has her US citizenship. I would then not leave the country without her US passport. I have friends who went to Mexico without a passport for their daughter and I cringed when I heard that they were questioned a bit…
PJM 10/26
January 11th, 2007 at 11:35 am
As always; thank-you very much RQ.
January 11th, 2007 at 11:44 am
kimsroom2,
Another thing you would need to look into is whether your daughter would need a transit visa when traveling to the Phillipines. When we adopted our son from Russia, we had an overnight stay in Geneva on our way home. We didn’t realize that our son need a transit visa because Switzerland requires Russian citizens to provide a visa when traveling to their country. Anyway, it was a BIG headache and it was only because of the passport officials mercy and my husband and I surrendering our passports that we were able to leave the airport. Anyway, something to definitely check before making your plans. Good luck!
January 11th, 2007 at 11:54 am
This is so discouraging… We have a LID of 7/25/06 and with this table is looks like it will be somewhere between May and Nov. 08 before we get a referral… Just hard to think about it taking that long…Surely, things will turn around soon or I’m just going to go out of my mind!!!:)
Sandy H.
January 11th, 2007 at 12:01 pm
I have a LID of mid-March 2006 and was hoping to see a picture of our little girl by Christmas 2007. What are other March ‘06 LID people thinking?
I know that Oct & Nov 2005 are huge LID months, but according to the number of LID’s my agency is reporting, Dec ‘05 & Jan & Feb ‘06 are not as big. I’m hoping that if we see a slow down for Oct & Nov LID referrals, we will then see a pick up in the number of referrals for the months after. One can hope, right?
May not happen, but if we don’t have hope, what do we have?
January 11th, 2007 at 12:04 pm
Tonight on Paula Zahn: “She’s a proud parent now, but if she wanted to do it again, she couldn’t. Will strict overseas adoption standards rule you out too?”
It does not specify that it is about adoptions in China.
LID 6.13.06
January 11th, 2007 at 12:26 pm
RQ, I know you have more confidence in your polls as we get closer to the LID in question, but do you get the feeling that March is going to be another “big” month? I see a ton of people with our LID 3/06 (and many more March LIDS too), and I know that people from our large China only agency with my DTC (Feb 6th), got split b/n 3.03 and 3.06.
We’re starting to redo paperwork and I was looking at the “range” I had written down during phone calls with our agency when we had figured we would be DTC Feb 06, the late end of range for referral was Dec 1st 06. At this point, I’ll be over the moon if that date is only a year off.
January 11th, 2007 at 12:26 pm
Thank you RQ!
You are the best!
January 11th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
Yes, I believe that March is another huge month.
January 11th, 2007 at 1:01 pm
RQ,
Thank you SO much! I know you probably get sick of hearing that but you do so much for this community of people! I have learned so much from this site. Also I tell everyone I know about Half the Sky as another way of thanking you. I cannot wait for the referral rumors to start coming this month because it might be our month!
Kim
10-08-05
January 11th, 2007 at 1:13 pm
Your child will have a valid Chinese passport until she gets to the US. (With the IR-3 the passport will then become invalid when she gets the automatic citizenship–I think this is how it works. I’m not a lawyer.) For the Philippines question, simply check with the Philippines authorities about their visa requirements, location of Philippines consulates in China (hopefully one in Guanghzhou) and days that they take visa appointments at that consulate as well as how long the processing takes. This should help you make a decision.
I have never heard of making a stop in another country being an issue for receiving the automatic citizenship once you arrive in the States. You should ask your USCIS officer just to be sure. We were going to do the same but couldn’t because we found visa processing time took too long (for Singapore). But nobody of any experience (e.g., our agency) fell down in shock when we mentioned our plans.
January 11th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
Thanks RQ! N
January 11th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
PJ Mama-
We were DTC 10/21 and LID 11/5, so just 15 days. I am not sure what other early NOV people went through though.
January 11th, 2007 at 1:24 pm
Thanks RQ. You pretty much confirmed the range for a referral that I have in my head. With a LID of 12/20/05, I feel we will get our referral sometime between June and September 2007.
My best to you! I hope the next batch of referrals comes with ease as I know you must be beside yoursefl!!!
January 11th, 2007 at 2:13 pm
kimsroom: I think it is difficult to take your child to another country first. Once you leave China, your child is kind of in legal limbo until you land in the U.S. (Sort of like that Tom Hanks movie–I think it was called the Terminal.)
I had a friend who adopted from Russia. On the way back their plane was diverted to Paris, where they had to make an emergency landing. The authorities would not let my friend take her child to a hotel for the night because the child was not yet an American citizen and didn’t have a valid Russian passport. My friend was told she couldn’t leave the airport. They had to bring in American embassy people who took charge of my friend and her child. Eventually they were allowed to go to a hotel.
I know families often stop in Hong Kong for a few days before coming home–but you should check with your agency or maybe USCIS.
January 11th, 2007 at 4:42 pm
The statistic look pretty discouraging. I am definitely glad that we had to switch to Vietnam. It looks like we wouldn’;t have a chance in you know where to bring a daughter home until 2009 or even much later. CRazy!! Hopefully, we’ll have a son sometime in 2008. The wait times are growing there too now, so who knows.
January 11th, 2007 at 6:42 pm
I know this is a silly question on the times table
what average would you use for a 11/18/05 LID
Pj Mama We were DTC 10/11/05 and LID 11/18/05
January 11th, 2007 at 6:44 pm
With a lid of 11/18/05 what average would I use?
Thanks, Ladybug
January 11th, 2007 at 6:45 pm
PinkPunch- We were DTC 10/05/05 and LID of 11/09/05.
January 11th, 2007 at 7:30 pm
klem,
I think the issue is a visa and not a passport. The babies have valid passports when they live their birth country. It is just that some countries require a passport AND a visa when visiting. France only requires U.S. citizens to show a passport but Russian citizens must apply for a visa. I know many people who have adopted from Russia and Ethiopia who had successful stopovers in various European cities by simply getting a transit visa for their children. We could have saved ourselves much grief by doing this as well when we brought our son home from Russia via Geneva. From what I understand, it is quite simple.
ladybuginnebraska,
With the same LID as you, I am using the 11 day average. :) Hopefully, that is being overly optimistic.
January 11th, 2007 at 7:44 pm
Thank you for this, RQ. For those of us with 2006 LIDs…it gives us something to track and watch. I absolutely LOVE THIS.
Thanks again for all you do.
LID 9-4-06
January 11th, 2007 at 9:23 pm
We were DTC 10/15/05 and a LID of 11/07/05. Slowly getting closer!
January 11th, 2007 at 9:31 pm
diggersmom: another March LIDer and I feel that we will get to see our peanuts face in November 2007 to February 2008! Its the best I could come up with.
RQ wasn’t their a back log of DTC to LIDs in Feb 06 and a lot of them did not get logged in until March? If this is so doesn’t that mean Feb would be a lighter month?
Thanks RQ
January 11th, 2007 at 10:34 pm
RQ thank you for the time and effort on all of the info. Your graph is right on the mark to what I was thinking….I have kept the idea that we will get a referral during the summer of 2008….yes right smack dab in the middle of the olympics….but at this point I am over the frustration…it is what it is….
But thank you for validating what I was thinking…
~Linda
January 12th, 2007 at 12:38 am
OK so based on LID lags in a few comments above, it appears this did not resolve in Oct or November, which would mean to me (I am pretty tired) that the referral “days” calc could and I mean could, be done be spreading those Sept 28-Oct 31 days over all of remaining Sept and October. An even amount would be 16.2 per day. if you redistribute, then the 26 would fall on the 24th, AMAZING hat it moves forward even including the 28-30 of Sept.
If you can then see clear to using the 24th in the table above, then you only need it to be 14 days instead of 18 on average. Now what is our YTD average, let me check, ouch, only 12 days. Well, IF they make the last 6 month average (14 days) we can make it. Alyson, are you out there? Am I losing it?
PJM
10/26
Sure the logic is flawed, but still happy for tonight to have my shred of hope.
January 12th, 2007 at 6:05 am
This is my first post, even though I’ve been hitting on this site at least 20 times a day for months.
PJ Mama – with a 10/24 LID (39 days after DTC) – I like your logic!
Desperately hoping, but not convinced, we’ll be in the batch after next.
RQ – I know you’ve heard it a million times – but this site is brilliant. In the UK we get zero info so everyone’s plugged into you. Thank-you.