Early February Analysis
First let me deal with the “when” of the next batch. The CCAA does historically try to get a batch out before they leave for CNY. However, I don’t think they have ever managed a two week batch, so I don’t have a lot of hope for that this year. A few agencies are expecting a batch before CNY, but most seem to be thinking the next batch will be around five weeks after the last batch.
The next question is how far they will get. I’ve done the good and bad case scenarios in the past, but I’m going to do a nice mid range this time as well. I’ve gone out as far as the most recent poll allows, but I will again say that I think that only the next two months are going to be that close to being accurate. I’ll also give a reminder that these numbers are based on the CCAA staying within the parameters of the last six referral batches, and they can always choose to refer more or less. These are not named “best” and “worst” case scenarios for a reason, I would never dream of predicting what the best or worst case scenario might be.
I have continued to list two months showing the end of one month or the beginning of the next, but if they don’t do another batch until after CNY then you should just look to the latter of the two months listed and assume that the prediction is that it will come somewhere around the second week of that month (give or take a week). So, the Feb/March month means if it doesn’t arrive before CNY then it is likely to come the second week of March (give or take a week).
Meanwhile, my boss’s boss is now having conniptions that I plan to be traveling in the next six to nine weeks and has requested my presence in his office this afternoon, so I’m not likely to be online for most of the afternoon. It’s not like they haven’t known this was coming, but now that it’s finally here they are acting like it is unexpected and OMG what will we ever do! My boss is cool with it, but the higher ups are not.
February 5th, 2007 at 9:13 am
Amazing RQ. I really appreciate this. Thanks. Congratulations again on your referral.
February 5th, 2007 at 9:24 am
Thanks RQ – your’e the best!!
Anyone else out there with mid month 12/05 LID? In looking at this based on the good scenario with the last of Nov. in May, I am getting a July referral???? Anyone else have any
thoughts??
I can handle July!!
February 5th, 2007 at 9:25 am
Thanks for the analysis! Congratulations on your Referral. I hope your Boss’s boss isn’t a jerk this afternoon!
Ellen
February 5th, 2007 at 9:31 am
Congrats to you too RQ (we also received our referral).
Tell your boss’s boss to chill out. What would he rather have, a good worker who will be gone for a while or a bad worker with anger issues there all the time? Ha!
February 5th, 2007 at 9:32 am
Good luck RQ- It never fails to amaze me that some employers really don’t “GET IT”. Hope all goes well.
February 5th, 2007 at 9:34 am
RQ,
Don’t let them forget your FMLA protection. You have 12 weeks for adoption and they are getting their 30 days notice! They can have all the conniptions they want…. you’re free to go get your baby and have time to bond without fear of losing your job.
:)
February 5th, 2007 at 9:40 am
We are so happy for you and your growing family. You have done so much for so many of us. We will miss you more than you know, when you are away.
We are only a few months behind you and with an 11/17 LID, there is finally a light at the end of this very long tunnel.
Congrats to all who just received their referrals!!! Safe travels to you all.
February 5th, 2007 at 9:41 am
RQ; I am sure you can handle your boss….. Sometimes bosses freak out a little until they hear a person’s plan about how the work should go in your absence. I am with Briellesmom; you are entitled to your maternity leave… they can handle things on their own. I get the sense you work from home some of the time….. so there you go….Besides you have 6-8 weeks to make it work….. Don’t let them upset you or take away the joy of this time.
February 5th, 2007 at 9:48 am
RQ~
The higher-ups where you work must be feeling the same way we are “what will do without her?”
Best of luck to you!!
Jo-Anne
February 5th, 2007 at 10:00 am
Oh, I know I’ll be able to take the time, and threatening the FMLA thing wouldn’t be good. My workplace is very much a team oriented workplace that treats their employees good and expects the employees to also treat the company good.
I love my job and the people I work with. And our work environment is very much a hands off “as long as your work is done then work as much or as little as is needed”. The big thing is that they are freaking out about the fact that their primary problem solver won’t be available to solve problems 24/7 whenever they need her. I have told them they may send one email a day at the end of a normal work day and they can expect a response early the next morning either via email or phone that should get them headed in the right direction to solve the issue themselves. Over the past two months I have worked with another person who has something close to my job title and my assistant so that the two of them combined (along with my boss) should be able to handle just about anything that comes along. I’m not sure what else can be done, I guess I’ll find out this afternoon. It may just be a matter of assuring him of what I’ve been doing to make sure my job can be done while I’m gone.
February 5th, 2007 at 10:02 am
Thank RQ! Heck if the big boss complains about you being away just tell him, “you think you’ve got problems?–what about the folks at RQ–now they REALLY need me!”
Thanks again for all that you do.
And here is to hoping that your best case scenario turns out to the the worst case scenario! And the rumored speed up finally happens.
Of course we all now that right after April DTC group is processed (my group) CCAA will start to do double months.
February 5th, 2007 at 10:19 am
Thanks for your analysis. As an 11/22, I have been thinking May, June or July for a long time – thinking June as most likely. At least that is what you are saying as well :)
Congrats on your referral, RQ!!
February 5th, 2007 at 10:29 am
Okay, I can live with this! I was having that horrible sinking feeling when looking at the numbers of people logged in between now and our LID but I am please to see we are still a possibility for the next go round. Since there is not a bloomin’ thing I can do about it, it will happen when it happens, but mainly IT WILL HAPPEN! YAY!!!!! So, I am off to focus on Mid March and hope for the best!
Thanks again RQ and good luck with the muckety-mucks. Just charm them like you have us and they will agree to anything!! (That and show them the picture of your angel!)
Alyson
LID 10/26/05
February 5th, 2007 at 10:40 am
Wait4hannah I also have an early Dec 05 LID – 8th Dec. I’m praying that we’ll get a July referral but planning mentally for August/September (ie mid-case) as the batches can clearly be very uneven. Today is the third anniversary of my starting the process (I can hardly believe it’s taken so long!) but at least I’m starting to feel in the home run and am beginning to look at baby things knowing that I’ll have a reason to buy them very soon.
February 5th, 2007 at 10:44 am
Waitforhannah: I have a 12/14/05 LID, and I am hoping and praying for a May referral. It might be a long shot, but you never know. I hope I have her before my kids leave to go back to college in August 07!
Judy
12/14/05
February 5th, 2007 at 10:46 am
RQ-
you said it…it’s not like they didn’t know this moment was coming. G and I went through the same thing with our bosses (especially since we took ‘leave’ to be with AR after we got back). It’s definitely fear of “what are we going to do while she’s out” based. If they didn’t already appreciate what you do for them, they really will now. LOL
good luck, and if I didn’t say it before: congratulations! and it’s been wonderful being a part of this community you got together.
T
DOR 11.3.06
Autumn Rose ChunLan
ChongQing “spicy-girl”!
February 5th, 2007 at 10:49 am
the bad case scenario scares me…
We have a lid 12 january 2005 and really are hoping for a july-august referal…
February 5th, 2007 at 11:09 am
With a LID of October 19th I think it’s time for this Grandma to get excited. Thank you so much for this site as I’ve learned so much about adoption. I’ve really enjoyed reading all the blogs and looking at all the new referrals. Congratulations to all the new families getting ready to travel to China.
February 5th, 2007 at 11:12 am
With a LID of 11/7/05, I am really hoping for the best case! But I am prepared either way.
RQ, you are amazing! With everything going on in your life right now, and all of your own personal excitement, you still have the time to give us this analysis! You are so wonderful to this community for still thinking of keeping us posted during this crazy (and happy!) time for you and your family! Thank you, thank you, thank you!
February 5th, 2007 at 11:14 am
Thanks for the poll numbers.
Congratulations on your referral. It’s a shame though that your big wigs at work aren’t being supportive. I hope you are able to ‘put them in their place.’ I hope it works out for you.
Wendy Norris
LID 12/27/05
http://adoptionandfire.typepad.com
February 5th, 2007 at 11:14 am
Sounds like you have a really good plan RQ (and it is what I expected). No matter what work you are in; you are doing a great job!!! As for letting them email you once a day; more than reasonable….Hopefully they don’t expect you to respond when you are in China. I am devoted to my job and love it too; but I think this is the only time I would not want to respond…..Good luck with you rmeeting.
February 5th, 2007 at 11:18 am
RQ, with everything you have going on right now, I am dazzled that you managed to post this very helpful analysis. Thank you, and CONGRATULATIONS on your referral!
Sending energy your way to deal with freaking out boss’s boss, I’m sure he or she will stop freaking out when you lay out your plan for coverage while you’re gone.
February 5th, 2007 at 11:51 am
Wow . With an Oct 19 LID it just hit me that I am in the next group even if it is a bad case. I can’t believe I’m getting closer!
I hope everything goes well with the boss.
February 5th, 2007 at 11:56 am
Happy to see I’m included in the good case scenario for the next batch, but I really don’t think I’ll be in it…I’ve resigned myself to the following one, which it looks like I make even in a bad case! What’s another 5-10 weeks after all this?!?!
As for work, I have to say that I feel lucky that it’s the least of my concerns. My boss and his boss (formerly my boss) have both been very supportive. I can’t really afford to take off 12 weeks of unpaid time, but I’m certain they’ll let me work from home for a few weeks if needed.
Really, RQ, I would focus on how proactive you’ve been in prepping someone to step up in your absence. They’ll survive. Perhaps by the time you get back, they’ll realize how valuable you are and give you a huge raise!!!
Now, the more important question…how will I survive in your absence?!?! If I’m not in the next round, you’re likely to be traveling or just settling in at home when I’m waiting for my referral!
10/26/05
February 5th, 2007 at 12:29 pm
Good luck with the boss! I had some hassles too. Based on my agency’s projections, I told my boss we would be traveling around the first week of March, but our TAs came early and I am now traveling 10 days earlier than I expected. I was supposed to have a major project wrapped up, but there is no way… I am going to have to hand off to someone else.
My husband’s company is making him take a Blackberry. I bet that thing is going to be going off constantly too.
February 5th, 2007 at 12:49 pm
RQ:
I have meaning to thank you for a while for all you have done for me personally and everyone else who visits this site. It is truly monumental and has had a positive effect on many of us.
It does bother me that there may be even the slightest concern that you are going to travel in 5-8 weeks. It is sad how many people “just don’t get it”. I am sending positive vibes to you and I hope it goes smoothly with the boss’ boss.
LID 10/27
February 5th, 2007 at 12:58 pm
Thanks RQ for the analysis it finally looks like good or bad I’m in the next group!!!!!!!!!! yeah! Congratulations on your referral! I know how your boss must feel, we will be lost without you! You have been the only light for so many of us in the China adoption community! If you are half as good at your job as you have been at finding out what is going on with our adoptions… Girl you deserve a HUGE raise!!!!!!!! Thanks again and happy shopping for that beautiful baby! (she must be beautiful all babies are!)
February 5th, 2007 at 1:03 pm
As everyone else has already said, thanks RQ for all you do!
We’re LID 1-6-06 and like Pucca above, we’re hoping for a late summer referral. DH is starting to lose it! Since we’re on 13 months wait and counting, who can blame him. If we truly have to wait til Sep or Oct, that would put us at 22 months of waiting! yikes, it hurts to even type that number! we’re currently working on re-doing all the paperwork, which although annoying, at least gives me something to do! : ) Hang in there ya’ll, there’s got to be an end point to these crazy waits somewhere out there!
krista
February 5th, 2007 at 1:08 pm
RQ-
OH I am sorry to hear work has acted that way. Mine did the same thing – and they knew for 18 months it was coming. I ended up going back to work 11 days after we were home so I empathisize with you if you are also in a position where they truly cannot live without you. I was able to make an arrangement tho to work from home until I had been back the 3 months I had *planned* to take off…and then I went back to office to work. Hope things work out well in the mtg.
And even tho we’ve been home 5 months, I still read your site everyday and feel blessed there are others out there who care about our adoptive friends still waiting.
hugs,
M’s mom
February 5th, 2007 at 1:13 pm
I must admit that I have never heard of a batch of referrals going out before CNY, although it would be nice since I am LID 10/26. If so, does it mean there’s another batch in March or not? I wonder if the agencies would know about the early referrals ahead of time.
Sue
February 5th, 2007 at 1:24 pm
Congratulations RQ on your referral – we are so happy for you and very thankful for your work here in the adoption community. You are generous to allow them to email you at all while you’re out – I’m sure that if you were home after a c-section with a newborn, they wouldn’t ask that of you.
Since I am LID 5/18/06 – would your best guess for referral be April 2008? That’s what I calculate if things continue they way they are now – 14 months from now if it takes 2 months for CCAA to do one month of LIDs. Your thoughts please????
Kiss the baby for all of us! We love her mama!
February 5th, 2007 at 1:29 pm
RQ – As always thanks for the analysis!
It is obvious that you mean so much to so many…your loyal following here….as well as the folks at work! With all the pressure from both places I’m sure it is a bit overwhelming at times. All adoptive parents and work places should be fortunate enough to have you looking out for them!
TJ
February 5th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
Thank you so much RQ for the analysis and congratulations to you and your family! You have so much going on and I really appreciate this analysis.
Funny thing is I did my own and it is closer to the bad case scenario so I have already processes and accepted this. It makes me very excited that the good case is better than my analysis. A ray of hope – even though it is still a guess.
Thanks again and I hope the higher ups lighten up. I have been through so many really good important staff members taking leave for various reasons and we get through it.
February 5th, 2007 at 1:32 pm
Thanks for the helpful info, and congrats.
We’ve been bummed lately about the long wait that just is stretching out longer and longer, but this post reminds me that we do have a lot to be thankful for–like employers who are completely supportive. I guess I naively thought that since China adoption is such a wonderful thing, that all employers would be as supportive and excited to help us as ours are. This post and comments from others make me realize we are truly fortunate. But this should be the norm, not the exception.
And there’s nothing wrong with invoking Family Medical Leave Act if you have to. The law is on your side here, and there’s no shame in pointing that out.
Litmom LID 1/6/06
February 5th, 2007 at 1:32 pm
Well looking at the analaysis, it doesn’t look good for us April LIDS…..guess we better prepare for 2008…..thanks for the info Rumor Queen, at least you give an honest opinion, not false hopes…..
February 5th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
With some combo of the mid case and good case, I could be in the batch after next!!! Oh, to the powers in charge of this, PLEASE make it so.
February 5th, 2007 at 1:59 pm
I am lucky with my job. They give up to a year’s leave with 40% for each child. I’m sure your job appreciates everything you do and will miss you like we all will. But things will work out well for everyone.
Thanks for everything you do. I’m thrilled that I found your web site.
Deb
LID 11/22/05
February 5th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
Wait for Hannah–I too am a 12/5/05 LID and am expectinga May/June referral.
February 5th, 2007 at 2:20 pm
RQ congratulations to you and your family on your new addition. You must be excited, relieved and anxious all at the same time.
I have a question for you, how do you do it all; family, work and the Queendom? Do you have a little OCD or a lot of OCD? LOL
Well how ever you do it, you do it perfectly. Thanks for all you do we appreciate it more than you will know and again congrats!
February 5th, 2007 at 2:22 pm
RQ – hang in there!
I too worked at a place that was very supportive, as long as it didn’t effect their bottom line. I can understand it, it is a business. I tried so hard not to let my fertility treatments interrupt work. Many times I dropped off specimens at 6a.m. at the doctors office, so that I wouldn’t be late for work. Then at lunch time I would go back for an insemination. This happened 3 or 4 times without anyone at work knowing. When I started getting into doing IVF it was a whole different story. I finally decided to come clean to my boss, he said,”why do you want to have kids?” It still makes me shake my head, especially since I was a social worker and so was he. But, 5 years later, every time I hug my daughter, it just puts everything in perspective – I’ll remember that hug more than a day at work.
February 5th, 2007 at 2:41 pm
I too am lucky that I have some flexibility and a boss who is supportive, but since I’m on call 24/7, I’ll still be expected to be on e-mail and up to date with what is going on at work.
I wont’ check work e-mail while in China, but I’m sure I’ll have to once we get back.
The last time we adopted in 2003, I remember logging into my work e-mail about a week or two after we returned from China, just to clear out my inbox and had more than 800 e-mails after just three or four weeks away! Just for sanity sake I log on to clear it all out!
February 5th, 2007 at 2:46 pm
RQ: thanks for taking the time out of your busy and exciting last few days to give us estimates for the next couple of batches.
emmasmom: I am LID May 18th as well, and am hoping for an April 2008 (give or take a month) referral.
I’m a bit concerned that it looks like October and November may each take three months to get through, and that March 2006 is a big month, so that the “two months per month of LIDs” trend may be interrupted to the effect that our referral takes even longer.
A year ago, I would not have imagined my “best case scenario” being the CCAA taking two months per month of LIDs, but here we are!
Jackie
February 5th, 2007 at 3:03 pm
Hoping your meeting goes well, RQ. I too can relate to “what will we do without her?”
With a 11/22 LID, I’m happy not to see anything later than July as my bad case.
February 5th, 2007 at 3:25 pm
Like many posters above, I too think it’s just a matter of your ‘big’ boss being reassured that you’ve thought about and made provisions for problems being solved while you’re away. In his mind, organizing everything is not necessarily something that’s a matter of course, and how it will be implemented is not necessarily something that he would have heard about. For you, it IS a matter of course, and your close co-workers know that all will be well. Yeah, he just needs to hear it from you.
Gosh, it’s so soon!! We’re all VERY happy for you, RQ!
February 5th, 2007 at 3:35 pm
Wait4hannah- I have a 12-12-05 LID. I am hoping to get a referral by May so we can travel before the kids go back to school. I guess we’ll see!!
February 5th, 2007 at 4:07 pm
RQ!!! You got your referral THIS TIME!!! I am SO very happy for you!!!! WOOOHOOOO!!!!!
Also, I think that CCAA WILL get referrals out before CNY. Why do I think that? They usually updated their site under the “now finished the review of…” in one month increments. This time they updated MORE than 1 month. I think it’s a good sign that they are forging ahead and getting referrals out before CNY. I am praying so, anyway!!
His,
Mrs. U
LID 9-12-05
referral 1-4-07
travel________??????
http://www.makingahouseahome.blogspot.com
and
http://www.youbelong.net/upchurchfamily
February 5th, 2007 at 4:12 pm
wait4hannah et al Lidders in early to mid 12/05, – I have a 12/05/05 LID and HOPE to get our referral in May but am prepared for June ug! I so wanted to travel in Spring but I guess we’ll be looking at July/Aug heat and humidity.
We travelled in June to get our DD#1 and it wasn’t too bad since we were up at 3 AM due to the time change and walking around Guangzhou by 6 AM and napping during the heat . . . then to the pool and a massage. Hey that doesn’t sound to bad after all!
February 5th, 2007 at 5:02 pm
RQ,
Congratulations on your referral! I am so happy for you and the king and your dd. Oh, our families might be at the WS at the same time. I too have been shopping for girl clothes. Our daughter has been in foster care since day one and that has thrown me for a loop because I have mostly read about children in orphanages. Any BTDT have advice or sources?
Kim
http://www.3peanuts.blogspot.com
February 5th, 2007 at 5:56 pm
Wait4hannah-
We are Dec 7 05 LID and are hoping for May or June. I am very curious about the rest of Oct. and how this next batch will go – Even though the end of Oct and Nov are big months, I hope they continue to do around 2 weeks each batch. Hang in there!
February 5th, 2007 at 5:57 pm
Wait4hannah-
We are Dec 7 05 LID and are hoping for May or June. I am very curious about the rest of Oct. and how this next batch will go – Even though the end of Oct and Nov are big months, I hope they continue to do around 2 weeks each batch. Hang in there!
February 5th, 2007 at 6:56 pm
Yes! With a LID of 10-18-2005, we should be NEXT despite what scenario we look at. :) Congrats to all of those that recently received their referrals.
3+
February 5th, 2007 at 7:44 pm
About the FMLA- it’s only good for companies with more than 50 employees. There are 46 at my husbands office and so he found out last week that he doesn’t qualify.
BUT he has lots of vacation and the owners of the company are VERY excited about our upcoming adoption. We are very fortunate and we know it.
I just thought I would pass that along. There are a lot of people that work for small businesses and this would affect them in their thinking that their job would be safe if they copped an attitude.
February 5th, 2007 at 7:49 pm
Another Dec LIDer here (12/12/05). I’m thinking June is likely to be the earliest, but more likely August. I guess I can focus on the positive and figure that fall in China is probably beautiful, and less humid.
February 5th, 2007 at 7:58 pm
I can’t bring myself to think it may be Christmas 08′ before we get our daughter… With our LID 7/25/06, I’m praying very hard the CCAA will start doing 2 months at a time…..I guess a girl can dream, huh?
Sandy
http://journeytoaudrey.blogspot.com/
February 6th, 2007 at 8:37 pm
RQ,
Thank you so much for your analysis. It really helps me to have something quantifiable. I have a question about these latest projections. Our LID is beyond the time shown in this table. What do I need to do to update the calculation steps that you posted on ~1/1 to reflect the latest batch of referrals?? Basically I want to extend the timeline to show when we might expect our referral.
Also, I hope you are able to smooth things over at work. Please keep us posted, I’m sure many others will face similar issues. In China and unreachable is a big change from 24/7 accessibility!
Thank you so much,
Jennifer
http://www.journeytonora.blogspot.com
P.S. The anti spam word it is making me type is a real acronym. Is that true for everyone?