Two days?
I had internet access on this trip and I could pop into the admin lounge to see what was going on, so I do have a rough idea of how things have gone. I am home now and instead of catching up on the forum I decided to spend what limited time I have right now to do an analysis.
The 8/22 poll is about 91% of the 10/11 poll. The smallest 8/22 month is 138, so if we adjust that number then we’d see that at about 150 if it were in the 10/11 column. So the smallest number in the 10/11 column is still the 129 and 130 months.
Now lets compare the 10/11 and 2/2 polls with each other.
162 / 240 = 68%
129 / 224 = 58%
36 / 67 = 53%
And, one more way to look at it, we’ll compare the sizes of the month within the same poll:
The last three months were on both polls, if you add those three months together you get 327 and 531. Divide 36 into 327 and you discover it was 9% of those three months. Divide 67 into 531 and you get 8%.
The question here is whether the CCAA did a normal month as far as number of LID’s, or whether they did a month that is as it seems - teeny tiny.
The three guideposts we have on this are:
1. The polls
2. People posting their referral announcements
3. What we know about various agencies’ LID’s.
The polls show that this was a very, very, very, small month anyway you look at it. The conversation in the admin lounge has been that referral announcements are way down. And the moderators are working on putting a spreadsheet together that will show agency LID’s, based on the information that ya’ll are sending them, so hopefully we’ll have some information on that soon.
And now, for the question everyone wants to know: What does this mean for the future?
If the CCAA did the same number of LID’s (and I’m not leaning in that direction) then that could bode very badly.
If the CCAA did a smaller month then we have to wonder why before we figure out what it means.
There was a rumor a while back that said the MoCA allowed the CCAA to refer less babies in 2006 than in 2005, and that they have again cut the number even further for the 2007 year. I hope this one isn’t true, but it’s still at the back of my mind as I’ve watched three months in a row come out on the lower end of what is expected and then a fourth month that tanked. But while I’m keeping my eye on that one, I’m not ready to believe it just yet. It just seems too cruel.
I also note that the late March batch last year was the smallest month we’ve seen until this month. CNY was January 29th last year and was February 18th this year. Is it possible that the orphanages went on vacation and weren’t sending in baby dossiers so the CCAA just didn’t have much to work with? For now, I think this is my top theory.
The moderators are working on a spreadsheet with all of the data ya’ll have been sending them, so once we get some numbers put together off of that I may change my theory.
But, back to the million dollar question - what does this mean going forward? If we compare it to last year at this time then we see that we might have another two months that aren’t so good. Of course, we don’t have good poll data from back then so we don’t even know if we should be comparing it to last year.
I’m not ready to do a good and bad case prediction yet. Or rather, I just can’t bring myself to do it based on what the bad case might be.
As for me, I guess ya’ll have figured out that I am home. I am not going to be online a whole lot for a little while yet, so don’t assume I’m completely back just yet.
I have closed the most recent poll and I’ll go through and clear out duplicate votes when I get a chance.
April 13th, 2007 at 7:19 am
On China Adoption Sites there are 17 referrals posted for this month and there were 19 posted for last month. That’s not to far off and it’s updated everyday with more added for several days after referrals come out.
Welcome Back and Congratulations on your newest family member!
April 13th, 2007 at 7:25 am
As I posted in the forum: My agency is saying basically the same thing — that this was a very small batch because there were simply fewer babies made available. This is in keeping with what we choked out of them a few months ago — that they expected to see a drop in the number of NSN children available for IA.
April 13th, 2007 at 7:47 am
Welcome home! Hope everyone is adjusting to your new addition and thanks for responding to our low LID theories.
April 13th, 2007 at 7:48 am
Welcome back in what ever capacity! Your input is greatly appreciated. Thanks.
April 13th, 2007 at 8:01 am
Welcome home RQ and congratulations on your newest RP (rumor princess). So glad you will keep the blog going for the rest of us still waiting!
P.S. Love the anti-spam word today!
April 13th, 2007 at 8:06 am
Thanks RQ and welcome home! Any analysis is much appreciated. We certainly understand that you are very busy.
Congrats on your little one.
April 13th, 2007 at 8:13 am
Thankyou RQ for your post. It is nice to see that you and your family are back home safely. I hope you all had a wonderful time! Enjoy your time with your new little one and hopefully the end of this month or early May will bring some better news for everyone! Once again, thankyou for keeping this website going. It has certainly helped me get through this long wait!
Pandacat2 (Hopefully next?!)
LID 10/28/05
April 13th, 2007 at 8:19 am
Off topic …
but any chance that the forum registration will open up any time soon?
April 13th, 2007 at 8:23 am
I don’t understand why they would limit adoptions when the children need families and clearly it helps them bring tourism money into the country.
April 13th, 2007 at 8:28 am
Welcome back, RQ! It is so good to hear from you, and we hope that you and your family had a wonderful trip. Congratulations!!
April 13th, 2007 at 8:30 am
Congratulations RQ…Hope you had a great trip and that the baby is doing well.
Thanks for the analysis, for keeping the site going and finally for picking the FAB 5. They all deserve a ‘cyber handshake’ for doing a great job!!!
April 13th, 2007 at 8:45 am
RQ, Congratulations on your new arrival!!
And for those of us waiting, I feel like it is never going to happen. I just got through the stress of the I-171 renewal and was getting excited that maybe my turn was coming. Then this 2 day referral hit and wow!! I have no idea what to say to anyone anymore, I just hope I have her by Christmas this year!
LID 11/18/05
April 13th, 2007 at 8:53 am
Welcome home, and thank goodness you’re back!
April 13th, 2007 at 9:08 am
Hi RQ, we missed you so much! So glad to see you are back. The Fab 5 are great, but we missed you.
It was such a treat to see a new post this morning. Thanks for your insights.
Snick
lid Oct 31/05, June??
April 13th, 2007 at 9:13 am
Welcome back RQ!
April 13th, 2007 at 9:17 am
How exciting to see a new post (although I do wish it contained better news…). Welcome back!
April 13th, 2007 at 9:54 am
Welcome back! What a nice surprise.
I have been devestated with the news of the low batches. With a lid of 11/9/2005 we really were excited about a my referral. The agency is telling us not expect one and hopefully one in June.
I hope all is well with your growing family.
April 13th, 2007 at 10:10 am
welcome home.
And boy what a mess here you have come home to–thousands of depressed subjects!!!
Here is hoping things speed up.
Hope springs eternal.
April 13th, 2007 at 10:17 am
Welcome home Rumor Queen!!!
April 13th, 2007 at 10:48 am
This might not be the right place to ask this, but how does one become registered for the forum? I can log into WordPress and get to this point, but the forum does not let me log in.
…and welcome home, RQ.
April 13th, 2007 at 11:06 am
I have heard from a couple other boards that although the dates referred were small, they got a ton of referrals. My agency, a teeny tiny New England China only one, who usually gets 8-12 refs per month, got 20 this past month, plus 8 WC files. I’ve heard this happened to a couple other agencies as well. Does this concur with anything else anyone has heard?
April 13th, 2007 at 11:12 am
From what I gather, there were some agencies who have not received referrals in a while who got more referrals than they are accustomed to getting. However, some of the very biggest agencies who usually get a lot of referrals got zilch this time.
April 13th, 2007 at 1:32 pm
Hey RQ!
Your loyal subjects missed you! The Fab 5 have truly lived up to their name, but sometimes there’s just no substitute for the original. Only yesterday I was wondering if you were back from China yet with DD#2. I’m assuming all went well, everyone is reasonably healthy and dog-tired. Get some sleep m’lady. See you in a few Zzzzzzzzs.
PT
April 13th, 2007 at 1:36 pm
Congrats RQ in your new addition. How is your “big girl” adjusting to a sibling?
Our Canadian agency received referrals for 2 groups LID by Oct 28 in addition to some expedited referrals. The babies were from orphanages that our agency had not previously received adoptions from.
I may be wrong, but it seems to me that while Hunan was previously really active in IA referrals, there are hardly any referrals from that province now. Yet a friend of mine who supports a Hunan orphanage that her daughter was adopted from had a request for blankets and shoes for the many 2-3 year old children who were now residing at the orphanage. Does anyone think that the Hunan orphanage directors are reluctant to submit their orphans’ papers to CCAA given the jailing of their colleague in last year’s trial?
April 13th, 2007 at 1:39 pm
Welcome back and Congratualtions!! Moderators did a wonderful job but you were missed.
Becky
April 13th, 2007 at 1:55 pm
It took me over an hour to log in today so I figured something was UP! Welcome home RQ and family. My small US agency had 3 families LID 10/26. Babies came from 3 different orphanages within Hunan Prov. Interesting.
April 13th, 2007 at 2:32 pm
Welcome back, RQ. Also, was thrilled to have a hard time loading the page as it meant, I hoped, that the Queen had returned to the building. So sorry for all of you disappointed waiters…no words can adequately comfort you so just know you are in our thoughts as you continue to wait.
April 13th, 2007 at 2:50 pm
Welcome back and congrats! The moderators did a fantastic job but I am glad you are back at the helm. I have been a lurker for several months on the blog portion of your site… just found the Forum over a month ago (when your blog was down). Your site has been extremely helpful in discerning fact from fiction in the vast IA rumour mill and the Forum is a great source in tips and advice for those in wait or having returned. I must admit, I am a fan, your site is the first I visit everytime I get on the internet. Thanks for all you do!
FCM
LID 3/21/06
April 13th, 2007 at 3:02 pm
Welcome back! Congratulations on your newest addition. Hope your trip went well.
April 13th, 2007 at 3:12 pm
Welcome home RQ. And congratulations on your newest family member!
10/28/05
April 13th, 2007 at 3:12 pm
Welcome back!
April 13th, 2007 at 3:12 pm
RQ - So glad you are back! What fun to see a new post on the blog. Enjoy you girls!!!!
April 13th, 2007 at 3:22 pm
Welcome back!
April 13th, 2007 at 3:31 pm
RQ: Welcome Back! We missed your keen insight and profound humor. I kinda gotten use to you on the blog, then you left us for great reasons. Congrats to you and your new family. We have a 10/14/05 LID. We just missed Feb. referrals by one day then on March 5 got the word of our beautiful little girl waiting for us in the Guangdong Province. Does anyone have any information on TAs? It’s breaking my heart knowing my little Maya is waiting patiently for us and we can’t just get on a plane and get her. It’s driving my wife and I crazy…………
April 13th, 2007 at 3:35 pm
Yeah for RQ’s new addition!! Glad that you are home safe. Did you tell your travel group who you were?
Thanks for the analysis.
April 13th, 2007 at 3:44 pm
Actually there were more than 19 in the March batch on China Adoption Sites before TA’s started arriving. Once they have travel info they are moved to the Traveling Soon section. I also believe this was a very small batch compared to previous months.
April 13th, 2007 at 3:53 pm
I feel very relieved that you are back, RQ.
I’ve missed your insight and to-the-point analyses. Welcome back, and Congratulations!
April 13th, 2007 at 3:53 pm
Welcome back!!! I hope you had a wonderful trip and your new little princess is doing well!
April 13th, 2007 at 3:54 pm
There were 44 announcements in February
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/02/01/referrals-2/
April 13th, 2007 at 4:13 pm
Such a nice surpirse to see you back today RQ. Hope your travels were good and your family is doing well.
April 13th, 2007 at 4:35 pm
Happy to hear you’re home safely, RQ, and also a little sad we can’t see your beautiful girls. Understand your desire for anonymity, of course. But–by now you are like a part of our own extended family. KNow that we’re with you in spirit and share in your joy.
Rest and recover. We’ll continue to be patient.
April 13th, 2007 at 4:38 pm
Lovely to have you back! The mods have done a fantastic job, but us loyal servants need their ruler back and with a 1st Nov 05 LID I’m desperate to see your analysis. As with everyone else I was extremely unsettled by the 2 days of referrals but I feel a little soothed by your return (although I understand that it’s only partial).
Kate
http://kes44p.blogspot.com/
April 13th, 2007 at 6:15 pm
kesp44-
what a neat blog! I love blogs that are streams of consciousness thoughts written down — rather like what I would write if I would get off my butt and start one, lol! I ADORE cavs too - my sis has a blenheim(sp?) named Dublin. What a cutie :)
We are LID 3/19/07 for an SN adoption, so although I could be waiting (gasp) maybe 3 years, I’m hoping its not likely — my agency’s director still thinks it’ll be a year for us to be matched with a WC file (she does all the matching in house of the files they get — they don’t make the kids files available to the public unless they can’t match from within the current client list) Anyhoo - I wanted to remark on your blog — I love the fact you’ve done all this shopping! I’ve been bombarded by relatives who want to give me all of their daughters’s hand-me-downs (whcich I am happy to take) so I have a closet of 3-6months thru size 12!! I think a good chunk of these will end up at Goodwill tho — a girl HAS to have some new stuff that’s just hers alone, right? :)
nd RQ — welcome back to your loyal kingdom. As its been said, the mods did a fabulous job, but we all missed you.
Hail to the Queen! :)
April 13th, 2007 at 7:35 pm
I can’t believe there could be less kids available for IA for 2007. What are they thinking, why would they want children growing up in orphanages? I’m so glad your back RQ
April 13th, 2007 at 8:26 pm
welcome back great to see you. Hope all is well at the rumor castle.
April 14th, 2007 at 7:26 am
Welcome back RQ! I hope you had a wonderful trip! Congratulations to your new addition! You were missed! :)
April 14th, 2007 at 11:48 pm
Welcome back RQ,
Thanks for working on an analysis for us. Just what we’ve been waiting for.
Do you think less referral announcements were posted because everything is so different on the forum now with the blog being off etc. Do you see signs of less people on the forum during your absence? The Mods did a fine job but things sure were very different. Maybe that is why there is less announcements. What do you think?
April 15th, 2007 at 12:35 am
Hello and congratulations RQ!
I have a theory that has never been mentioned and it may sound crazy, but here goes. You mention the rumor that referrals were allowed to be cut back in 2006 continuing into 2007. Could it be that the government is working to polish China’s image (thus saving face) for the 2008 Olympics? The huge Beijing cleanup could logically extend to government policies that will be scrutinized by the world next year. I would love to hear what people think about this.
April 15th, 2007 at 2:42 am
I would say that dwgbam has hit the nail firmly on the head! Having just returned from China last month, I can tell you that Beijing is ALL ABOUT the Olympics. Everything there is being cleaned up or covered up so as to look good for their international guests. There is even a large campaign under way to encourage people to be more polite – i.e., not spitting on the street and forming orderly lines (that one is working! I was amazed at the difference in 3 years – nice, polite lines instead of pushing and shoving). Public toilets in places like the Forbidden City are being remodeled to be more “user friendly†for foreigners.
So, is it that big of a leap to think that the government is also trying to clean up their IA image as well? We know from past experience that IA will be discussed by international journalists. How much better will it look for China to be able to say, “Look, we are adopting fewer and fewer of our children out of the country because there aren’t as many children available. We even had to put new restrictions in place to limit applications because we don’t have as many babies available now as in the past.� It may not be true, but they will have the numbers to prove it – steadily decreasing number of children adopted from China in 2006, 2007, 2008 . . .
Sad, but I think true.
April 15th, 2007 at 8:17 am
I agree with dwgbam!!
April 15th, 2007 at 10:01 am
Yes dwgbam, I think that’s probably a good portion of it. I’ve been saying the same thing for a long time now.
April 15th, 2007 at 10:49 am
So, as a person with a 12/5/05 LID will I get my baby after the olypmics? This is maddness I tell you maddness!!! My agency said it is like trying to nail jello to a tree!
April 15th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
adomom12 - that’s not what anyone is saying at all.
April 15th, 2007 at 10:05 pm
I know, It just feels that way. I did not mean to imply that I am just feeling down with the last batch of referrals.
April 16th, 2007 at 12:24 pm
Nailing Jello to the wall, huh? Quite the visual! Thanks for the laugh.
RQ- I echo the sentiments of those who have posted above…
A hearty welcome home to you!
I am so impressed you are even able to post after so short a time home. It took me about a month to coordinate my brian cells enough to remember how to flush the toilet! (Probably TMI…Oops!)
:-)
Laureen
http://www.babysites.com/sites/laureenmary