When, oh when, oh when
In the past 8 months the time between referrals has been 24, 32, 38, 28, 34, 29, 32, and 32 days. That is an average of 32 days (rounding up), with the least being 24 and the most being 38. The number 32 appears three times and is the only number to be seen more than once. The midpoint of the numbers is 31.
This means that if there were no vacation we could likely expect to see them between April 30 (a Monday) and May 14 (a Monday), with the most likely date being closer to May 8 (a Tuesday). However, CCAA is closed the first week of May, making May 8th an impossibility.
With that in mind, I think there is a better than average a chance we may see referrals Monday the 30th. If they can finish up this batch and get them mailed out before they leave then that is what they would generally prefer to do.
If they work the weekend before their vacation and get them to DHL on that Sunday, then we could see referrals arriving later that week, probably Wednesday the 2nd, but I don’t know the transit times if DHL gets it on Sunday, so maybe Tuesday.
If they do not get them mailed before they leave for vacation then we’d expect to see them no earlier than the 10th or 11th but much more likely the 14th. Or later.
As always, this is based on recent history and nothing says the CCAA has to fall within these dates.
April 16th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
I’m not good with numbers. My husband and I are trying to figure out which way the winds are blowing for us. We are logged in as of late April, 2006. Have there been any predictions at all as to our wait?
April 16th, 2007 at 2:00 pm
I don’t think there is anyway to predict beyond a couple of referral months out, which at best is three to four weeks of LID’s right now, and at the current worst about a weeks worth of LID’s.
If you figure it will take 2.5 months to get through each LID month on average then they have 6 more LID months to get through before they get to you, so that could likely take around 15 more calendar months. Unless things start to speed up.
The next two LID months are going to be way over that 2.5 month average, and I’m not convinced we are going to be way below that in the following LID months, so the 2.5 may be a very optimistic number.
April 16th, 2007 at 3:23 pm
What is your WAG for 12/5/05 LID?
April 16th, 2007 at 3:23 pm
What is your WAG for 12/5/05 LID?
April 16th, 2007 at 3:23 pm
Sorry that went twice. I did not mean to.
April 16th, 2007 at 3:35 pm
Every time we get to the “Just another 6-8 months” mark, it becomes another 6-8 months. Would be laughing if it did not hurt so much. Reminded me of this Greek myth: Sisyphus was compelled to roll a huge rock up a steep hill, but before he reached the top of the hill, the rock always escaped him and he had to begin again.
Dang, I thought we had gone through the really time time, and it is just never ending. With a 12/19/05 LID, I don’t even know what to believe anymore.
April 16th, 2007 at 3:51 pm
It’s great to have you back, I hope your new family are enjoying life together and the adjustments are easy.
With a LID of 1st Nov 05 I’m now waiting for your analysis of when I might expect referral, I’m not expecting this month, but am hopeful for the second batch from now.
TIA
Kate
http://kes44p.blogspot.com/
April 16th, 2007 at 4:02 pm
I also have a 12/5/05 LID and I’m guessing Aug/Sept for referral. Thanks RQ for the new poll. I roughly counted 200-220 LIDS per referral timeframe. I think we will be on the cusp. Remaining hopeful for 2007 DD#2.
April 16th, 2007 at 4:40 pm
Thanks RQ…I am assuming you think it could take 4-6 months to get through November since it is going to take a minimum of 4 months to get through October…YUCK is all I can say.
April 16th, 2007 at 5:22 pm
Hi RQ,
Congrats to you and your new addition!!! As many have already stated– I very much appreciate the time you put into this site– especially now.
LimboforLibby– I know exactly how you feel! Our LID is 12/20/05 and every time we get close to the next “only 5 to 6 more months” mark– the wait seems to extend another 5 to 6 months. It is driving me bonkers!!! I was in such a foul mood over Easter– between the referrals and a few other things in my personal life– the next thing I new, I was down with a god-awful cold.
I took the day off work today and went to a spa with a friend. It was a nice retreat– even if for just a day.
April 16th, 2007 at 5:23 pm
I forgot to mention, with a lid 12/20/05, I don’t think we will see our referral until September or October.
Major Sigh!
April 16th, 2007 at 5:27 pm
Hmm, my first post didn’t go through– who knows what I might have done.
RQ– thanks so much for continuing your analysis– as others have mentioned, it is really appreciated. Congrats, also, on your new. I am so very happy for you.
Inlimboforlibby– I completely understand how you feel. Our LID is 12/20/05 and every time we get to the “Just another 5-6 months†mark, it becomes another 5-6 months. It is making me sick– really. I was so bummed last week I ended up catching a nasty cold!
I just wish there was more rationale to what is going on.
April 16th, 2007 at 5:28 pm
Ok, now I have 3 posts listed. It is official. The impending wait has driven me bonkers.
I have to go hide from the men in the little white coats now.
April 16th, 2007 at 6:31 pm
What do you know about parents living in China and waiting for their referral? Is it the same wait or is it less?
April 16th, 2007 at 6:40 pm
thanks RQ
So good to hear your voice!
April 16th, 2007 at 6:41 pm
I’m with the other December LID people. Every time I think it’s getting closer it just gets another month away. I’m really hoping at this point to have her by Christmas. A few month back I was thinking we would be traveling in August when it’s really hot not I’m thinking December when it’s really cold. Plus in winter your clothes take up twice as much suitecase space than in summer and I really want to try and pack light. Anyway I’m still telling myself it will happen – someday.
Kim
LID 12/7/05
April 16th, 2007 at 7:41 pm
Oh yes, that “moving finish line” and I are WELL acquainted. That danged line has moved SO many times since I started. “Referral in 6 months” I was told. Pah!
As I move on to 18 months, I’m so hoping *this* is the month for me. I can’t take much more heartache :(
Snick
lid Oct 31/05
April 16th, 2007 at 8:09 pm
Someone wrote on the forum that the light at the end of the tunnel seems to be a train about to run me over! I can identity with that feeling!!!
LID 12/5/05
LGW (last glass of wine) ten minutes ago
April 16th, 2007 at 8:53 pm
My heart goes out to those of you with LIDS in OCT and NOV of 2005. I know you must be sitting on pins and needles. I have a LID of October 2006 and I have been waiting now for 6 months (which is nothing, I know). I only wish I had a 18 or 20 month wait. I am preparing myself for a 48 month wait. That is reasonable, I believe, considering that it has taken the CCAA 15 months (from Jan. 2006 to April 2007) to match 6 months worth of LIDS that are from the year 2005. (April 25, 2005 to October 26, 2005). At this point, I think I would consider myself one of the lucky ones if I could get a referral in less than 24 months.
April 16th, 2007 at 9:05 pm
I have finally figured out why our wait keeps getting longer right as we think we are getting close. Apparently, when we were told 6 months wait when we started, they forgot to mention that it was in dog years.
Trying to keep a sense of humor.
April 16th, 2007 at 9:07 pm
Not sure if this helps at all, but the legal holiday here in China is May 1 – May 7, which is Tuesday through the following Monday. We are supposed to work here in Beijing through the weekend before the holiday, including April 28, 29, and 30. So another possibility is that referrals can be mailed out as late as Monday, April 30 and arrive later that week.
April 16th, 2007 at 9:18 pm
Well you can always do what my husband and I did- switched to Vietnam. It was a very tough decision because it took so long to get our 11/06 LID and we had put in, as all of you, lots of effort, money and hope. I was going absolutely crazy with the ever-increasing wait with no idea if things were going to get better. We started our paperwork in Feb and we will have our referral in the next couple of months. THere are other answers out there! At the very least you all can be happy some of us are dropping out and shortening your wait time, hopefully.
April 16th, 2007 at 9:36 pm
Shasts, please don’t take this the wrong way but the difference between having a LID of Oct 05 and Oct 06 is when Oct 05 started the wait was only 6 months. When Oct 06 started the wait was already anticipated at 18 months. For us ’05 LID’ers our wait will have quadrupled if (when) the wait hits 24 months.
April 16th, 2007 at 10:47 pm
Well, according to RQ’s numbers, the wait time in September of 2006 when I was DTC was actually 13 months. 48 months would be almost 4 times that. And, God, I pray that I am wrong about 48 months. Your post made me think of a saying my great-uncle Harley used to say. (He would be 104 years old now if he were alive.) Anyway, he used to say, “it’s never taken the wrong way if it isn’t given the wrong way.”
April 16th, 2007 at 11:00 pm
Hey, I understand. Actually, according to RQ’s numbers, the expected wait time in September of 2006 when I was DTC was 13 months and 48 months is almost 4 times that. And, I hope to God that I am wrong about 48 months. Your post reminded me of a saying that my great-uncle Harley used to say when I was a young girl. (He would be 104 years old if he were still alive) Anyway, he said, “it’s never taken the wrong way if it isn’t given the wrong way.”
April 16th, 2007 at 11:15 pm
Dog years- HA!
I would love to see another batch before the May holiday, just for a mental boost. One day is one day closer. That is my new mantra.
Anti spam word = crib (you mean the one that has been set up since 2005?)
April 16th, 2007 at 11:25 pm
Hey, I understand WaitingforNatalie. Actually, according to RQ’s numbers, the expected wait time in September of 2006 when I was DTC was 13 months and 48 months is almost 4 times that. Maybe that’s the standard everybody should go by – that it will take 4 times as long as you think it will. (Is that shorter or longer than dog years?) Your post reminded me of an expression my great-uncle Harley frequently used in my youth – (if he were still alive, Harley would be 104) anyway, he used to say, “it’s never taken the wrong way if it isn’t given the wrong way.”
April 17th, 2007 at 1:59 am
Thanks RQ. Glad to have you back. Really missed the blog!
:)
wBw
April 17th, 2007 at 7:22 am
Shasta, you make a good point. i think pretty much everyone prior to the 07LIDs are going to have their waittime quadrupled. with a feb 06 LID, i actually feel ( almost) lucky that i will ‘only’ wait 2 years as opposed to the 3 years those after me will probably wait.
It stinks all around!
April 17th, 2007 at 8:29 am
It feels like the frog that is jumping towards a wall. He jumps and jumps and jumps and each jump gets him half the remaining distance but the frog never quite gets to the wall.
LID 12/23/2005
April 17th, 2007 at 9:53 am
My agency says CCAA is also closed the last week of April, followed by the early Mary Trade Fair. So I wouldn’t expect referrals except whatever they manage to do over the last weekend of April.
Carol
LID 1/6/06
April 17th, 2007 at 10:15 am
Specifically, April 14-30th is Spring Trade Fair 2007 in Guangzhou, followed by May 1-7th being China’s Labor Day holiday. Does anyone have any info whether or not CCAA will work much on referrals between now and the end of April?. . . or just over the weekend of April 28 & 29?
I would think that if a referral batch comes out April 30th,
it will be for 10/27 only, and then the next batch won’t come until mid-May. Just a WAG.
Carol
LID 1/6/06
April 17th, 2007 at 10:40 am
I am glad that some of the bloggers are looking at the wait realitically. If I had known about the RQ a year ago I feel that I would have been better off. I would have not been on the roller coaster for so long. With an LID of 11/9/05 I wonder if June is realistic. My friend keeps saying, no no no she believes in 7/7/07. Who knows.
April 17th, 2007 at 11:32 am
I realize that this wait is happening for a reason. I think that we will all be getting the child that is meant for each family but, that sure does not help the wait. We too are April 2006 LID. I guess we will not get our child until fall or winter of 2008………Let’s just hope that the paperwork gets done fast……reallllllly fast. Now, I need to plan my next house improvement project to keep busy…..
J.
April 17th, 2007 at 11:37 am
Why is this song always in my head these days?
Build Me Up Buttercup
The Foundations
Why do you build me up (build me up) Buttercup, baby
Just to let me down (let me down) and mess me around
And then worst of all (worst of all) you never call, baby
When you say you will (say you will) but I love you still
I need you (I need you) more than anyone, darlin’
You know that I have from the start
So build me up (build me up) Buttercup, don’t break my heart
“I’ll be over at ten”, you told me time and again
But you’re late, I wait around and then (bah dah dah)
I run to the door, I can’t take any more
It’s not you, you let me down again
(Hey, hey, hey!) Baby, baby, try to find
(Hey, hey, hey!) A little time, and I’ll make you happy
(Hey, hey, hey!) I’ll be home
I’ll be beside the phone waiting for you
Ooo-oo-ooo, ooo-oo-ooo
Why do you build me up (build me up) Buttercup, baby
Just to let me down (let me down) and mess me around
And then worst of all (worst of all) you never call, baby
When you say you will (say you will) but I love you still
I need you (I need you) more than anyone, darlin’
You know that I have from the start
So build me up (build me up) Buttercup, don’t break my heart
You were my toy but I could be the boy you adore
If you’d just let me know (bah dah dah)
Although you’re untrue, I’m attracted to you all the more
Why do I need you so
(Hey, hey, hey!) Baby, baby, try to find
(Hey, hey, hey!) A little time and I’ll make you happy
(Hey, hey, hey!) I’ll be home
I’ll be beside the phone waiting for you
Ooo-oo-ooo, ooo-oo-ooo
Why do you build me up (build me up) Buttercup, baby
Just to let me down (let me down) and mess me around
And then worst of all (worst of all) you never call, baby
When you say you will (say you will) but I love you still
I need you (I need you) more than anyone, darlin’
You know that I have from the start
So build me up (build me up) Buttercup, don’t break my heart
I-I-I need you-oo-oo more than anyone, baby
You know that I have from the start
So build me up (build me up) Buttercup, don’t break my heart
{fade}
April 17th, 2007 at 4:19 pm
Since we will not be bringing our daughter home during the summer months as planned does anyone know if I can donate all of the 6-12 month clothing for summer that I had purchased? I would love to send it to an orphanage in China but I don’t know if that is possible. Any thoughts?
Adomom
LID 12/5/05
April 17th, 2007 at 6:47 pm
adomom,
Try finding someone who has recently gotten a referral – someone who lives near you. They may have room in their luggage and would be willing to take it to their child’s orphanage. I am still waiting for my referral, but I would be thrilled to take it with me if I were getting ready to travel. Try posting in General Discussion on the forum or on APC.
April 17th, 2007 at 8:40 pm
adomom12,
Maybe you should contact Half the Sky. We are sponsoring a child and they told me that it would be okay to send clothes, toys and etc. Although they did have a list of specifics.
J.
April 17th, 2007 at 9:01 pm
Loved the song, ChickenSoupforChina — the lyrics are right on. I guess it helps that I love that song… oh well, I guess one day we will all have our little “buttercups”
Still hoping for an August Referral…(?)
May
LID 11/30/05
April 18th, 2007 at 6:23 am
I am just wondering…………why the CC-AA hasn’t changed their website. I am hoping that means more referrals will be out soon.
J.