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First RumorThe first rumor is from Europe and says we will see two to three days this time. A November 1st LID was told to not expect hers this time. Is this from CCAA or is this an agency making an educated guess? I don’t know. This one gets an R2. 
Note from RQ: The section below is for comments from ChinaAdoptTalk.com's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that I agree with any particular comment just because I let it stand. Posts are generally only removed if they don't follow the rules of the site. Anyone who fails to comply with the rules of the site may lose his or her posting privilege. 72 Responses to “First Rumor”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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April 23rd, 2007 at 6:36 pm
please someone come in with another rumor better than this. I seriously can not take this anymore!
April 23rd, 2007 at 6:51 pm
seriously! That is awful! Not that I expected a whole lot more, but that almost makes me feel sick to my stomach!
April 23rd, 2007 at 6:53 pm
It seems to me that this is what we can expect until Ocober is finished. The 27th. and 28th. seem to be larger and perhaps are larger than the 24th. thru 26th. I think the good cased senerio would be thru 10/30. on this next batch.
April 23rd, 2007 at 6:54 pm
Please, please, please can’t we just get to Nov 1??? I can’t believe its come to this –I am now begging and pleading for CCAA to do just 6 days. Pathetic.
April 23rd, 2007 at 6:55 pm
So maybe…. Thursday Oct 27, Friday Oct 28, and Saturday 29th
…..or are they skipping the weekend and including the 31st??
I will not go there. I will not go there. I will not go there. I will not go there. I will not go there. Must protect heart. Again.
Snick :)
lid Oct 31/05
April 23rd, 2007 at 6:58 pm
I can’t remember but last month when someone posted first posted the possibility of two days…didn’t that rumour come from Europe as well? If so, the rumour may be more reliable.
April 23rd, 2007 at 7:00 pm
I wish I still believed that this was impossible. I wish I still believed in happy endings.
April 23rd, 2007 at 7:02 pm
with all these bad rumors i feel sick hope its not true
April 23rd, 2007 at 7:10 pm
torture
April 23rd, 2007 at 7:35 pm
Unfortunately, I believe it and it means that the new years break had nothing to do with two days last month. A this rate I have about 10 years to wait. Looks like it is definitely time to be more serious about other options. Of course, now I waited too long to do that as well.
April 23rd, 2007 at 7:36 pm
What stinks is that a lot of the time the 1st rumors are better than what really happens. Yuck!
April 23rd, 2007 at 7:49 pm
Ouch. I am so sorry. This waiting is so hard for y’all. And it just keeps getting worse.
April 23rd, 2007 at 7:50 pm
RQ, and anyone else who can shed some insight
I know the topic of RQ poll numbers was discussed last referral batch and wanted to inquire about additional thoughts now with this new rumor.
prior to the most recent referral batch, it appeared as if ccaa was matching approx 220 LIDs registered on this site. There were quite a few factors put forth that collectively contributed to the 2 day LID (which although were large LID days was less than the approx 220 LIDs registered on this site and that had been the recent trend). Among some of those reasons was the approx 2 week holiday in China.
If this current rumor is true and we compare the number of LIDs in the poll, then it appears for 2 consecutive referral batches the number of referrals was reduced from approx 220 to approx a little over 100.
my concern is this — is this a new trend where even less referrals will occur as compared to even a few months ago????
I hope not.
thanks
April 23rd, 2007 at 7:51 pm
Well, so much for last month being a fluke. I swear, getting through the 2005 lids is just AWFUL! With a 6/2/06 lid I have been feeling thankful for being in the front half of the line, but it feels like there IS no front half, we’re all at the END of the line! Ugh…
April 23rd, 2007 at 8:03 pm
Here is what I am starting to think…
Things started to slow down, and we have all been positive that things are going to speed up. In the meantime everyone has been hoping and also declaring that they are committed to sticking with China etc. Now that these terrible batches are still here, I am starting to think that this might be the point where reality sets in and a whole lot of people start reconsidering their options. I seriously think that we are going to be seeing a whole bunch of changes around here!
April 23rd, 2007 at 8:08 pm
I agree oscar1elmo. I have talked with many people who are tired of being “jerked around.” The wait is beginning to take a toll on many people. Every month it feels as if my heart has been ripped out once again. I don’t how much more I can take. I know that China is where my daughter is, but I don’t understand why we have had to fight so hard to get to her.
April 23rd, 2007 at 8:11 pm
I’m not sure this is a rumor, or just a guess, but our agency says that the CCAA may only complete October this next round. That’s certainly a bit better than just 2 days would be.
I think many, many people would have to seriously rethink their options if we see another 2 day batch.
April 23rd, 2007 at 8:19 pm
I am so sorry for all of you. I agree with you Shatfiel. Until we pulled our dossier and switched countries, I felt each month that things were only going to get worse and I got so depressed! I know it feels like you’ve invested everything and that YOUR baby is in China. Some things weren’t meant to be. There are other options out there. We will get our referral in about a month (if all goes as planned) and we have been paperchasing since Feb. Good luck to you all.
April 23rd, 2007 at 8:21 pm
I am so sorry for all of you. There are other options, though. Until we pulled our dossier and switched countries I was terribly depressed and each month it was a new blow. Hang in there or maybe decide that it just wasn’t meant to be.
April 23rd, 2007 at 8:23 pm
But if November is an even larger group than October, where does that leave us?
It’s true. Bailey—- several months ago, actually last April when I found out that my cousin was pregnant, my husband and I had a meltdown because it was the at least 25th time we went through this crushing news and started to look at other options but decided to stay on our route to China. Now, 1 year later, we have moved up in line so to speak 3 or 4 months maybe- I don’t even know.
At this point, we are Feb LID so what can we do? I just don’t know anymore. If it were just until they finished October, most of us could learn to accept that. But how many months then to get through November.
I really don’t know. Does anyone know of anyone who is going to drop out now?
April 23rd, 2007 at 8:24 pm
wait4baby, I’ve got a 11/30/05 LID, there’s no option for me but continuing to wait. six months I was told. It’s been more than twice that, and I’m beginning to fear that it won’t happen at all in 2007. 34 LID days away, and that could seriously take 2 months, or 10. It’s inhumane.
April 23rd, 2007 at 8:25 pm
waitforbaby:
what country did you switch to?
April 23rd, 2007 at 8:25 pm
oops, i posted twice!
April 23rd, 2007 at 8:29 pm
Just a reminder - first rumors are often not right. This is only an R2.
April 23rd, 2007 at 8:43 pm
Oh bloody hell - I am SO sick of this rollercoaster. Only 27 days away from my LID and it may as well be forever. Apologies for the moan but this crappy wait really is taking its toll….
Tassie LID 22/11/05
April 23rd, 2007 at 8:48 pm
waitwait- we switched to Vietnam. So far I have been nothing but ecstactic with our agency. I am still very nervous, though, until I actually get a referral. I have been reassured over and over that things are fairly stable and referrals are quick because they have added a new province. More expensive than China and our China-only agency refunded a miniscule portion of our $.
April 23rd, 2007 at 8:56 pm
Dragonmom- I can see your dilemma. I would be very hard-pressed to switch countries if I had had an ‘05 LID. It made it a lot easier that we were LID 11/06. Hope you can find ways to keep your sanity- my thoughts are with you guys (obviously, I keep looking at RQ out of habit!)
April 23rd, 2007 at 8:57 pm
Tassie, if it were possible, we’d could go out for the night and cry in our beer. Two problems, I don’t drink alcohol, and I’m betting you’re a long flight away from me.
But I’m right there, mood wise.
RQ - thanks for the reassurance, but honestly, isn’t it ALWAYS the bad case?
April 23rd, 2007 at 8:58 pm
Tassie, I am right there with you, We are Lid 11/18/05
I hope they get to atleast 10/31. I cant believe that
I am happy about a 5-day batch!! I am so tired, this
is so draining. But I could never think about switching
my child is in China :-)
April 23rd, 2007 at 8:59 pm
Wasn’t there some word last month when agencies enquired about the 2 day batch - CCAA’s response was that it was an anomoly and not expected to happen again? This was from what I understood direct from CCAA? Am I dreaming???
Trying…to…..hold onto ….some hope…..aaaaaaaaargh…….
meismama lidjune’06
April 23rd, 2007 at 9:03 pm
Hi ladybuginnebraska. I would not switch either. I have waited this long and know that Alice is waiting for me somewhere in China. I just wish she was here now….:(
Tassie
April 23rd, 2007 at 9:05 pm
Hi RQ..I am not surprised that November 1rst is not likely to see a referral this month..but it would be great if they made it through the 31rst…I think it is a good idea not to react to these first rumors…it may be true…but what can we do? My hope is they cut the poor October LIDers a break!
April 23rd, 2007 at 9:31 pm
RQ,
What is the pattern of behavior for the weekends? With a 10/31/05 LID, I can’t get too excited either way. I am just wondering if there are any LID’s on the 29th and 30th as they are Saturday and Sunday? Looking for a glimmer!
ff
April 23rd, 2007 at 9:36 pm
funfam - top right hand section of links, check out the poll results and you can see how things are distributed.
These are not total LID’s, but they are a percentage of LID’s so it gives a good idea of how LID’s are distributed.
April 23rd, 2007 at 11:10 pm
I don’t want to upset anyone and believe me, as LID 11/7, there’s nothing more I’d like to see than a good strong batch of referrals covering the “good old” 15 days worth of referrals. But it seems to me that we’re being a bit double-minded if, on the one hand, we’re jumping for joy if referrals are coming in early (i.e. before the May holiday), but then we’re thrown into the depths of depression when we discover that CCAA only got through x number of days.
I know, I know - even if the reduced working month is taken into consideration, if this R2 rumor were to materialize as fact, it would still be a lower than “old normal” month but it would actually be a mild improvement on last month, based on my analysis of RQ’s poll results.
Let me explain. On Jan 24, referrals were issued covering LIDs 9/28/05 - 10/13/05. According to RQ polls that was a total of 240 RQ referrals. Between 27th Dec and 24th Jan, I estimate that CCAA had 20 working days. That averages 12 RD dossiers per working day.
On Mar 2, the next referrals were received. The LIDs covered were 10/14/05 - 10/24/05. RQ reports 224 dossiers for that period. Because of CNY falling during that month, the number of working days was around 17. That means an average of 13.2 RQ dossiers per working day.
Then came last month’s appsarently anomalous batch on Apr 6th. The LIDs covered, as we all know, were 10/25/05 - 10/26/05. RQ shows a total of 79 dossiers logged during those two days. The number of working days from Mar 2 through Apr 6 is 25. this produces a stunning 3.2 average RQ dossiers per day.
Now, lets assume the worst of this batch, in line with the current rumor. Assuming referrals are made on Apr 27, that’s only 15 working days for CCAA from Apr 6. With a cut-off date of Oct 29, RQ reports a total of 104 dossiers for the 3 days 27 - 29 Oct. That would mean 6.9 average RQ dossiers per working day. I know that’s not quite as good as before but it’s double the processing speed of last month.
Now there’s one more glimmer of optimism I’d like to inject. I think - and I’ve got nothing but my gut to back me up here - that the last batch ALMOST included oct 27th LIDs. There were just too many dossiers for CCAA to finish the day so they held the whole day back. That would mean that the 3 days of referrals would actually start on Oct 28 and, because Oct 30th is sunday with 0 LIDs, the 3rd day would be Oct 31st. That would mean that this referral batch would cover a total of 160 RQ dossiers and an average, over the 15 working days, of 10.7 RQ dossiers per day.
Sorry to ramble and please don’t take my math as anything more than conjecture. My main point is that we can’t have it both ways. If we want speedy referrals then the batches will be smaller. If we want the number of days worth of LIDs to be bigger between referral batches, then we need to wait longer between batches.
April 23rd, 2007 at 11:30 pm
revdaddy, I like your logic! Even if it’s not accurate (I don’t know either way), I just absolutely love man logic. I love how men can just take out the good old emotions! Ahh it’s somewhat refreshing with this very emotional journey. Thanks I needed that immensely.
April 23rd, 2007 at 11:35 pm
Thanks sofalv. I’m glad I managed to make you think I’m not emotional about all of this! Fact is, nothing could be further from the truth!! :)
April 24th, 2007 at 12:09 am
One thing makes me think many are not ready to drop out yet. Only on RQ do people have a grasp of the enormity of this wait, some sense of what’s going on, an idea of how many dossiers are backlogged, etc. Many adoptive parents still have agencies telling them this wait should speed up after May 1st, that it shouldn’t go beyond 18 months, and other such whoppers. The naivete (sp) and optimism out there are incredible.
I am so sorry about this wait. Blossombaby
April 24th, 2007 at 2:17 am
We were all burnt last month with only 2 days referred.
We know the 27th is big and that the 31st is huge - therefore I think it’s unreasonable (with a shorter length between batches than sometimes) to expect both these dates to be covered.
With a LID of No 1st 05 I’d love to be wrong - particularly as someone who has now waited 12 months more than expected just on the China part of the process, over 38 months in total, it hurts but raising hopes to unrealistic expectations will hurt more, I’m not going there again this month.
All the best,
Kate
http://kes44p.blogspot.com/
April 24th, 2007 at 6:12 am
Like Kate I’m not going to have any realistic expectations (LID NOV 7 05). And sadly, I don’t want to point this out, but we always get the GOOD rumors this time of month. I know this doesn’t sound like a good rumor but hey it is if you are coming from the standpoint that they may only do 1 day.
Sadly that is where I am.
I like your analysis RevDaddy, where do you put us for a referral as we share a LID? I’m thinking July at best - as of course the referrals in early June will have lost some days due to the holiday.
April 24th, 2007 at 7:03 am
You know my SW came for my update yesterday. She told me to hurry and get my fingerprints redone because my 171H will take two months.
Ha, with a LID of 12-05-05 I think I have plenty of time!
If this R2 does pan out, let me send my sympathy to everyone that just missed it (again). For my Dec LID buddies, do you think we’ll spend Christmas in China?
April 24th, 2007 at 7:55 am
It is still early so it’s hard to say if this rumor will prove true, but if it does I really empathize with all of you November 05 LID’s (talk about so close and yet so far). Back when this slow-down first hit I never thought in a million years I would be one of the ones to throw in the towel, but with a LID of Nov 2006 I can’t even fathom what our wait could be. Our paperwork starts to expire in Nov./Dec. 2007 and if the wait is continuing to grow at that point, I’d have to say we would be done. But that’s easy for me since I already have 3 daughters - for those of you waiting for a first child or a sibling for your first child I’m sure it is anguish. I honestly feel like I would step aside just to help out those that situation (and I keep telling myself that this does not mean some little one in China goes without a family). Man, oh man, there are so many facets to this thing.
April 24th, 2007 at 8:00 am
neatokimmo - I am a fellow 12/05/05 LID buddy! I can tell you I will be devastated if we are not there by Christmas. I figure we need to have our referral in October to be going this year.
April 24th, 2007 at 8:15 am
neatokimmo - I am a fellow 12/05/05 LID buddy. I will be devastated if we don’t go by Christmas. I think we need to have out referrals by October in order to go by the end of the year.
April 24th, 2007 at 8:44 am
I just wanted to offer my support to particularly the ‘05 waiters. We were logged in with a November ‘05 date for 5 months when our dear RQ offered up the proverbial writing on the wall. And based on that, as a family we decided to make the switch to Guatemala in April of last year. Even with a lengthy process (11 months from referral to homecoming) our daughter has been home a month and our former LID date (11/16) could still be months away from referral. My prayers are with you all, but particularly the ‘05 group. This wait must have just sucked beyond compare.
April 24th, 2007 at 8:44 am
neatokimmo,
with a LID of Dec, 8 2005 and only 45 days away from my referral I sooo much hope I will see my little baby’s face before Christmas. But as you know - everything is open….and with the speed the CCAA is continuing now, it might be I don’t see my baby’s face before Christmas 2008.
:-( sad regards
Beate
April 24th, 2007 at 8:54 am
frustrated
The answer to your question really hinges on whether Oct 31 is in this next batch or not. If it is, I think the early June batch will make it through Nov 8. If it isn’t, then my estimate is it will only go as far as Nov 4. That wuld put us 11/7ers in the early July batch.
But remember, this is all based on rumor!! Only time - and a few more sleepless nights like last night - will tell! Hang in there.
April 24th, 2007 at 9:42 am
Buckle your seat belts and keep your arms inside the ride at all times. Hold on tight we are in for a bumpy ride!
April 24th, 2007 at 9:50 am
RQ & MODS, Can a poll be done using a few days
at a time until we get thru the real heavy days
in OCT? With a Lid 11/18/05 I want to see if I
will be getting my referral this fall?
Thanks,
Ladybug
http://www.ost.redthreadkids.org
April 24th, 2007 at 9:53 am
neatokimmo,
We share 12/5/05 LID and I am holding on to the hope that we will have our kids by the end of this year. I think this is still being realistic regardless of a possible small referral for May. It isn’t surprising when we look at RQ poll numbers. I have my own predictions and I was guessing CCAA would get to Nov 2 (being optimistic) time will tell soon. Let’s hang in there!
April 24th, 2007 at 10:01 am
I am right there with everyone feeling the effects of this rollercoaster. Somebody toss me a dramamine!! But I think it is good to be prepared for a very small October. Our large China-only adoption agency anticipates another month like last month, BUT they do expect this slowdown to pass once they are through October. The “anomoly” of last month should be expected again due to the fact that the batching that caused the “clog” (as I like to refer to it) continued through the end of October. Hopefully, once we are into November we can see those banner match groups of 6 days again!! HOOO-AAAAHHH!
Dont give up yet, lets wait to see what happens after the plumber comes at the end of November.
Heather
LID 11/9/05
April 24th, 2007 at 10:05 am
OOPS!! Hoping for the plumber at the end of OCTOBER… was that some sort of sign? I sure hope not!!!
Heather
April 24th, 2007 at 10:12 am
Exactely what I figured. I wonder why after preparing myself, I still feel so hurt and angry yet again? After last month it took me a little bit to pull it together. I am confident I will get my baby, our LID is 11-02-05..I just hope we get her this year! A two year wait thus far is much much more than we expected..What made it worse was the “only a few more months” thing we would here. Now I hear of people who are just starting and being told “12-15 months”…I met one of these couples a few weeks ago, they are with a LARGE ALL China agency..and they really believe that. They are in their 40’s with no children, met later in life.
Well, trying to stay positive, if this rumor pans out than I can actually assume we will be next…If they get through these BIG days, through October…we may very well see our baby in June…(Should I even get my hopes up?)
Feeling bummed yet again,
Livysmom
April 24th, 2007 at 10:17 am
rev daddy’s analysis is interesting but i have never had the feeling that the specific number of days between referrals makes much of a difference. For all intents and purposes referrals come out once a month. Our understanding of the matching process is that it only takes a small portion of the month. For all we know there may be a specific day every month where they cut off the incoming referral dossiers and then just match those. Any coming in after that cut-off are matched the next month.
Sigh….I always end up going back to the message on the CCAA website on the subject of the wait from way back in November 05 (which they still display prominently). No matter what we may speculate as to the actual situation, the CCAA just keeps saying they match the children available…no more no less. I know of course that it i’snt that simple, but everything else is just speculation.
April 24th, 2007 at 10:21 am
O.K. I have had a cup of coffee, and now I am more relaxed.
I think until this rumor is upgraded and goes along with what other agencies are saying…we should patiently wait.
Hmm
April 24th, 2007 at 10:35 am
i really loose hope to hold our baby this year (LID 12 jan 06)
this is killing me!!!
i think i will decorate the Xmastree in black in that case… I hope we will have at least a refferal before Xmas, or is that too optimistic???
April 24th, 2007 at 11:08 am
RQ, is this 2-3 day rumor coming from more than one agency? Do we have any idea whether they are counting the 29th and 30th (weekend)? Is there anyone with more concrete information regarding the validity of this rumor, or are we just stuck with R2? I’m dying at the thought of waiting yet another month!
LID 10/31/05
April 24th, 2007 at 11:10 am
Ladybuginnebraska-
Check the links on the right and find the poll archives, there are a couple of polls that cover through your date now to help you with those calculations
April 24th, 2007 at 11:22 am
Thanks Pam, I will check there!!!
April 24th, 2007 at 11:44 am
Hi from barcelona!
the worst thing of all it’s the suspense, not knowing. Everything would be easier knowing an approximate month of referral.. LID 06/08, i’m sure you can understand me.
A kiss from catalonia,
April 24th, 2007 at 11:53 am
Opps sorry just another thing.. Yes, those rumors here are coming from more than one agencies. They hope a referral of 2 or 3 days, but who knows, the last word is the word of the CCAA ,right?
bye
Silvia Lid 06/08
April 24th, 2007 at 12:38 pm
neatokimmo, we too are LID 12/5/05 and after last month it looks like we could spend Christmas in China. I can’t believe it, I am still hopeful for much sooner! However, I had a dream over a year ago that I met Jenna and it was sometime before Christmas-like Oct/Nov. I just knew it was for Christmas ‘06, no idea it might’ve been for ‘07-wow!!
April 24th, 2007 at 1:08 pm
When I spoke with my large, China-only agency after the last batch, they were expecting only the last few days of October to be included in the next batch and pointed out that 2 of those days were weekend days and thus wouldn’t have any (or only a few) LIDs. Thus, this info would be in line with this rumor. They were hopeful that after October, things would be a little more predictable again. Not sure if this is based on speculation or real info, but they didn’t give their usual “we don’t know what the CCAA will do” line, so I took it pretty seriously.
April 24th, 2007 at 1:10 pm
This is crazy!!
At this timeline, I am going to have to hire a babysitter for me, my wife and our baby!
Fred LID 3/24/06
April 24th, 2007 at 1:15 pm
With a LID of 3 November I really hope that we get 8 days done this month but realistically, I suspect we are going to travel in the extreme heat and humidity of August!! After all the misery of waiting 18 months for our 6 month wait, it just seems right! LOL
With that in mind, I suggested to our group that we all wear matching thongs!! Not a pretty picture!!
I work with a Chinese researcher and he tells me that the Chinese government has 3 holidays a year, Chinese New Year, May Day and some other one.People usually get the the weekend BEFORE the holiday off and extend their time off to about a week, however, they actually only have 3 days off officially.Many places allow people to extend their time off to the next weekend but they make it up by working weekends later.
That is from the horses mouth…..I give it an R5 rating!!
Ciao for now
Dave
April 24th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
it’s just so nice to be able to go to an active blog again. thanks rumor queen.
April 24th, 2007 at 2:06 pm
Fred,
That’s funny!! I wonder if we can all get some kind of deal on diapers…Mom, Dad & baby!
Trying to keep some humor so I don’t cry!
April 24th, 2007 at 2:11 pm
RQ, I think we’re done with the “first rumor”. Is there a “second rumor” on the horizon?
:)
April 24th, 2007 at 4:15 pm
im expecting to see 27-30 anything more will be a surprise…and i sure would like to be surprised!
LID 10/31/05
April 24th, 2007 at 4:42 pm
This is ridiculous. What in the world is CCAA doing? Goodness!! I have a friend with an LID of 11-9-05 and I was SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO sure she would be THIS month!!! AAARrrggghhhhh!!!!!!!!
His,
Mrs. U
LID 9-12-05
referral 1-4-07
“Gotcha Day” 2-25-07 for Elizabeth
http://www.makingahouseahome.blogspot.com
April 24th, 2007 at 6:58 pm
Hi. Hang in there. I’ve been looking into Kazakhstan; Mongolia; Thailand; Taiwan; Philippines; South Korea and Vietnam. As people are switching and applying to these countries, their lists are getting longer. And so is the wait.
April 24th, 2007 at 7:12 pm
I’m one who may drop out - completely. Since I’m 50, I could be close to 52 by the time I get the child (LID 5/18/06). I’m single, I already have an 8 year old who would be 10 by the time I adopt which would make them 9 years apart. That’s not what I planned for. There is nowhere else that I want to adopt from. I have to renew some fingerprints in a couple of months, so I will make a final decision before spending another $750-$1000. My large agency yesterday says they feel this is mostly politically motivated to make China look better in the eyes of the world when the light shines on them next year during the Olympics. Whatever the reason, I know the ones that suffer the most are the children with no families to call their own.
I’m tired, I’m getting old, I don’t have a lot of money. Anyway, I think a lot will be dropping out eventually…