An Exercise
We’ve done this exercise a few times before but it’s been a while and it is time to do it again.
I believe that the best predictor for those who are within one to three months of a referral is still the polls. I’m hoping last month was an anomaly, but if it wasn’t and (heaven forbid) it is the new norm then the polls will still help us out more than days referred as long as there is a “normal” that we can predict around.
However, for those who are more than six months away from a referral I believe that days referred per month is probably fairly accurate, or as accurate as we’re likely to get for a long term projection. It doesn’t work if you are close because one month might be 2 days and another might be 14 days, but if you are far enough out then an average will get close.
First let’s look at the historical record. The average days per referral batch for the past 18 months is 12.5 days, the past 12 months is 12.4 days and the past 6 months is 13 days. If you average the six months from March to August of 2005 you get 9.7 days.
Which brings us to the actual exercise. The numbers in the column headers in the table below represent the number of days the CCAA will refer on average. The labels in the first column represent the month referrals will arrive. The dates that populate the table represent log in dates.
The blue squares are to be used as an example if your LID is April 27th.
Which column should you use? That’s where the guesswork comes in. For those LID in January 2006 and beyond I’d probably figure somewhere between the 9 and 12 day columns and hope for the 13 day column at this point. The dates in italics show that I think you are too close for this to be a good indicator.
I’m not sure why I included the 15 day column, it made sense when I made the spreadsheet but now that I’m typing the blog post, it doesn’t. The 18 month average going backwards doesn’t get us to 15 days, I’m not sure I see any reason to think the next 18 months will either, especially since we are told there were more dossiers sent in 2006 than in 2005.
I could not bring myself to do less than 9 days. For those who are close you need to face the facts that we’re going to see some referral batches of less than 9 days, but for those far enough out I just hope the average doesn’t drop below that. Though I have to admit it very easily could.
April 24th, 2007 at 6:55 pm
RQ
We really missed YOU! Thanks so much for posting this.
Scary scary scary. How scary is it that we are into 2010!!!!
2010??????
Oh man.
The only solace I have found is that with a 4/06 LID at least I don’t fall into 2009. Even with 9 days of referrals.
I am also kind of sick thinking that it is more likely that CCAA does 9 days every month than they will do 15 OR MORE.
If only they could do 15 ….or how about 20 every month.
I suppose that ain’t gonna happen.
Reality is rather rotten looking today.
April 24th, 2007 at 7:04 pm
Wow, we are LID 4/25/06, and our agency insists we will not wait past Feb 08………they must be smoking something.
April 24th, 2007 at 7:15 pm
Thanks for doing this RQ. We missed you so much while you were gone. It bears repeating. :)
We’ve been saying for so long that “gee, wait till next month…that’ll tell us something for sure” Ya, right.
I want off this ride.
Snick
lid Oct 31/05, and I’m *not* thinking I’m next coz I can’t take the heartbreak, again.
April 24th, 2007 at 7:23 pm
RQ-Thanks for reality check, even though it is terribly depressing!
April 24th, 2007 at 7:31 pm
Very depressed. A 30 - 36 month wait with a July o6 LID. I can’t deal with 2009. I just can’t. There is no solace and there is no way I can believe I will actually get a referral with this much time still remaining.
Thanks for the reality check RQ even though it is very very grim.
April 24th, 2007 at 7:36 pm
Welcome back RQ
All this Confuses me and makes my head hurt.
So with a LID of 10/09/06 you think Sept, of 2009?
Am I reading this right?
Please somebody pick me up off the floor and bring lots & lots of chocolate.
I Feel Sick……..
April 24th, 2007 at 8:06 pm
Thanks RQ; I appreciate this. Lets just hope things don’t stay below the 9 day mark for long…I totally get what this month is going to be like: HARD
April 24th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
I think I need a drink…
April 24th, 2007 at 8:26 pm
I feel like I am forever eight months pregnant- so close yet so far (I hope that made sense)
Is it realistic to think they might process 9 to 12 days any time soon? We are almost finished doing all of our paperwork again because everything expires in July. I just hope we get a baby before our second round of paperwork expires.
2-20-06 LID
April 24th, 2007 at 8:34 pm
appreciate the chart work RQ, and your optimism.
I do think Nov 05 (and possibly Dec) needs a 7-day batch column…and maybe a 5-day batch column….
April 24th, 2007 at 8:35 pm
Very, very depressing! You would think as time went by, we would get closer to our referral not farther away! I was just getting use to my referral being 2 years away! Three years is so depressing! LID 7/3
April 24th, 2007 at 9:00 pm
I cannot believe that I have to begin telling people it will be a year or more again. Where is the tequila! Anyone else need a drink! LID 03/06
April 24th, 2007 at 9:01 pm
OMG. 2009??? GGAAAAACK.
LID 06/05/06
April 24th, 2007 at 9:02 pm
Luna, may I join you? With my 11/06 LID, I’m looking at 2010. I really don’t know what to say.
April 24th, 2007 at 9:26 pm
Ouch, that was painful.
LID 9.19.06
April 24th, 2007 at 9:28 pm
Wow. For the 9 day average, I’m not even on the chart (LID April 20, 2007). Doing the analysis myself, I’m looking at about November 2011. Four and a half years. Crap.
April 24th, 2007 at 9:32 pm
manda I am right there with ya. I have a LID of 11-06 as well. I think I am going to be sick!
April 24th, 2007 at 9:35 pm
RQ and friends,
Forgive me for the threadjack, but I’m wondering whether the “adoption gone bad” discussion is continuing someplace else since that thread was closed? I was going to mention the “harmonious period” document that we received after the adoption was finalized. I met her, immediately registered the adoption, and was handed that to sign as well. I wish I had understood it better at that time. Maybe that will answer some questions…
Again, sorry–just point me in the right direction and delete my post if necessary.
April 24th, 2007 at 9:40 pm
We ARE getting closer, guys. We just didn’t know how far the finish line was when we started. When I started, folks really were getting their babies in about 6-7 months. Immediately after I was DTC the rumors started, and it was confirmed by CCAA and my agency that the wait would extend gradually out to a year. Well, it extended beyond that pretty quickly. Yet, I am closer every single moment to my referral than I was the moment before regardless of how much longer I have to wait. And I will wait - make no mistake about it. I’m one stubborn little pig. And patience being a virtue and all, I’m liable to be a saintly pig when it’s all said and done.
April 24th, 2007 at 9:59 pm
For some reason I keep coming back to the chart and looking up my LID. Do I think I’m going to telepathically change anything? AACCKK!
April 24th, 2007 at 10:03 pm
postfarm - on a day that I know I can be around to keep an eye on the conversation I will make a post outlining the things I have learned since making that post.
I’m still gathering some facts and people are still sending me their stories, so I’m not quite ready to make the post. But hopefully soon I can make a follow up post and we can talk about these things again.
April 24th, 2007 at 10:09 pm
Thank you RQ.
April 24th, 2007 at 10:12 pm
Thanks RQ for the chart, I know it takes a lot of time to set these up for us :)
Kim - LID 12-05-05
April 24th, 2007 at 10:32 pm
My critique of this is that we don’t know the reason behind the delay. If the reason is that there are more and more adoptive families and China just can’t keep up with the demand for referrrals, then the process will keep falling behind. Eventually (years from now), as people turn away from China or can’t meet the new May 1 rules, the system will catch up to the lower demand.
On the other hand, China may be deliberately slowing the system down and has a time line in mind (i.e. “let’s make it so there’s a 2 year wait between LID and referral”). If this is the case, then we are unfortunately caught up in it and China will keep slowing it down until they get to their target wait time.
April 24th, 2007 at 10:49 pm
I’m not sure we will be in a position to be able go through with this when (if?) the time comes. I have been considering switching countries, but when I spoke to our China-only agency today about it, their response was that if we switch countries now we aren’t likely to get through the process and receive a referral significantly faster than we would from China. With our LID (6/28), the agency rep I spoke to off-handedly estimated that we would receive a referral about a year from now. They obviously have no realistic idea. In order for us to receive a referral within a year for our LID, the CCAA would have to average more than 22 days each month until our referral! Ridiculous! The agency rep also said to expect another month (or more) where the number of LIDs referred are very low (similar to last month.) When I asked what they are predicting for wait time to newly applying families, the agency rep said “24 months and growing”. I don’t know what to do. It is really heart-wrenching.
April 25th, 2007 at 2:26 am
So with the bad case scenario of 9 days that puts us with a 2/13/06 LID at 5/08. I cannot believe it but I’m actually OK with that. I have reached the point where I now expect nothing and can therefore no longer be disappointed. I’m sure their is some wonderful fortune cookie quote to go with this emotion…
I think in the eyes of CCAA I must finally be ready for parenthood, I’m finally OK with a 27 mo LID to referral wait.
I’m joking of course, and truly feel for all who are waiting in this long line whether in front of or behind us. This sucks.
Mares~ why don’t you put your renewal on hold a few more months just to make sure? We’re not starting the renewal process until this summer. Just a thought.
April 25th, 2007 at 2:27 am
I mean “there” is some…. geez, my spelling!!!
April 25th, 2007 at 3:56 am
There’s a question I’ve been asking myself for the past couple of months : If the demand is SO high (2005 is big & 2006 is bigger), why did the CCAA take so long to do something about the wait (when they implemented the quota, it was done quickly) and when they did (the new rules), why did they give 4 extra months so new people could submit their dossiers (where I live, 4 months is enough to complete a dossier) ??? And why did they add Italy ??? Weren’t their hands already full ??? I just don’t understand … RQ, any thoughts ?
Ray.
April 25th, 2007 at 6:25 am
RQ - Do you think that we might see a speed up when the new rules are in place? There will be a lot of dossiers send before May, but maybe after this date there will be a bit of a decrease…
I know, I may be dreaming right now, but my DH and I hope that the wait will stop growing up because we badly want to give a little Chinese sister to our first daughter (with us since January). Here in Quebec, Canada, there is not a lot of available countries for IA and Chinese is still our first choice.
April 25th, 2007 at 6:26 am
RQ - Do you think that we might see a speed up when the new rules are in place? There will be a lot of dossiers send before May, but maybe after this date there will be a bit of a decrease…
I know, I may be dreaming right now, but my DH and I hope that the wait will stop growing up because we badly want to give a little Chinese sister to our first daughter (with us since January). Here in Quebec, Canada, there is not a lot of available countries for IA and China is still our first choice.
April 25th, 2007 at 7:12 am
Thank you RQ. This is a grea analysis. My math agrees, of course my math followed on yours, so take that for what’s it’s worth.
What I am curious about now, nervous about, is where the backlog really is as of my LID 9/13/06. Is it 20,000, is it 30,000 or is it somehwere in between? And how many referrals are they really doing a month?
Those are the two numbers that of course we are really trying to get at. But given the information that you have shared and my own excel spreadsheet, my prediction for 9/13/06 is right in line.
It’s nice to have you back. I hope you and your family are doing well. You are providing such a service for all of us. It means the world.
Hann23
LID 9/13/06
April 25th, 2007 at 7:28 am
Holy crap, Batman! This stinks.
April 25th, 2007 at 7:36 am
Wasn’t there talk of them allowing more orphanages to particpate with the program? I wonder what happens to those children?
Woopig - I am with you!!!!
April 25th, 2007 at 7:46 am
Hello everyone, this is our first post, and unfortunately it’s not a good one.
we have a LID of 3/27/06 and are right now in the middle of updating our home study and fingerprints. Our agency is advising that we follow through with the update because they fear that China will be pulling dossiers randomly for closer inspection and if that paperwork is not current we could be in trouble.
That however is not our concern. We are concerned with the paperwork expiring again before we get our referral sometime in 2008. We simply cannot afford to keep pouring money into this.
We know that we are at the very bottom of the financial pool for this adoption thing, and unfortunately it is now starting to catch up to us. We seriously thought that we would be back from China by now and would be settled in with our tax credit, but obviously that hasn’t happened.
We just may drop out, and not even bother renewing things since the prospect of a second round of expiration is looming larger and larger.
Sorry for the wall of text, but this is just some therapy that we need right now.
April 25th, 2007 at 7:51 am
Thank you RQ,
I am extremely sad to see these numbers. Most of 2005 and 2006 LID’s had no idea this could potentially happen. I remember being upset being told after DTC 12-15 months. Now I’d welcome it.
Star
LID 6/20/06
April 25th, 2007 at 8:01 am
Pretty much what I expected. I am actually starting to feel a bit sorry for the people who are expecting their referrals by Christmas (our LID is April 06) I met two this weekend. I tried to insert a little reality but got told “that is only rumours, X agency has a lot of experience and they wouldn’t steer us wrong”. Whatever.
As bad as I feel today they are going to feel way worse when they call their agency in November wondering where their travel information is.
B
4/19/06
April 25th, 2007 at 8:11 am
jjnanj
I can completely understand your concern. While we are not at the low end of financial abilities we have spent our thousands of reserve money so far. We are LID 6/20/06 and have spent about 15K so far. We too will need to get re-fingerprinted for the third time in November 2007 and another homestudy UPdate and CIS approval summer 2008. China is our second country as we were DTC to Ukraine in late 2005 and that program essentially shut down. I’m not sure we can switch countries again and go through the roller coaster as we’d have to change agencies to switch countries.
My thoughts are with you and your DH.
We decided to go ahead with renewals and see where China was before we renew again. I’ve given up hope for a speed up at this point.
Star
LID 6/20/06
April 25th, 2007 at 8:38 am
I’m just so thankful to be back in the game, now we’ll just hurry up and wait…………… HAPPILY.
R.Q., you fascinate me, and you were so missed. Congrats on being home with your family.
Shelley
LID 3/28 hopefully……….
April 25th, 2007 at 8:47 am
jjnanj……. oh I’m so sorry…… but you have come this far, and things COULD SPEED UP, we have to hope. I too have just re-done our fingerprints, and am thinking about the I-600 I guess it is….. the expensive one, do you know when the price is going up, I may just want to do it before and just cross our fingers that we won’t have to do this again……..
Shelley
lid 3/28 ?
April 25th, 2007 at 9:03 am
I’m officially depressed for the first time in this 16-month wait. Up until recently I’d been able to remain stoic and logical about it (”we have plenty to do in the meantime, it will happen when its supposed to happen, blah blah,”) but I let my heart get excited and start preparing a few months ago, thinking we were finally “pregnant,” or within 9 months of referral.
Now I feel like I’m stuck in the first trimester, complete with nausea and crankiness and plenty of other symptoms that come from this miserable process. I just want to be a mom and I’m officially OVER this wait!! And I’m also ready to send out an email to everyone I know to tell them to quit asking, because I’m also over that broken record…
Sorry for being so stinky this morning. Big storm here last night and didn’t sleep, so I’m sure the sleep deprivation is only making matters worse.
On a brighter note, RQ, we are sure glad to have you back!!
LJ
12-20-05
April 25th, 2007 at 9:35 am
Dear RQ,
With a lid of 12/06/05, this website has really kept me going. I love all the links, charts and information you give. September doesn’t seem that far away. Thanks again!!
April 25th, 2007 at 10:04 am
Oh well, I think CCAA should start a new program: “Apply for a daughter AND/OR a granddaughter at the same time” With those waiting times, most of us should directly opt for the latter when referral comes ;-)
Mussol
LID 11-24-05 (which looks farther, not closer, after each batch)
April 25th, 2007 at 10:23 am
Thank you, RQ. I appreciate the hard work you do for us. Good wishes to your family.
April 25th, 2007 at 10:28 am
suenzig,
I’m with you looking at Sept for a referral with 12/5/05 LID. It’s ironic how the closer we get (even though we are still at the same dreaded 6 months away) that we can tolerate the wait. We are within reach and will have to wait it out.
It’s like being in a time warp. Oh, No! The song is in my head. “Let’s do the time warp again!” - Rocky Horror
April 25th, 2007 at 10:34 am
I have a question for all of you with a 2007 LID…without naming your agency…did they inform you of the increeased wait? How long did they approximate?
April 25th, 2007 at 10:40 am
jjnanj — we are in almost the exact same boat. We can’t afford to keep redoing. My dh is disguisted with the ‘politics’ or red tape, or whatever you want to call it. He says we’re done now. We had a friend who got caught in the Ukraine mess, and actually was IN the Ukraine to get their child, and then were all of the sudden sent home. In our area, International Adoption does NOT have a good name. Not to mention that we have been certified to adopt/foster in our area and have not gotten a call for that either. I’m just sick. Literally sick of this all!!!
April 25th, 2007 at 12:49 pm
With a 2/10/07 LID, things are not looking good. I really think we’re going to drop out. We just cannot possibly wait three plus years for our second child. Plus I cannot take this roller coaster, and we’ve only been pursuing this adoption since September. I think it’s time to call it a day and move on.
Livysmom, our agency didn’t inform us about the wait times, at least not in any detail. Our info on the ever growing wait times have come from this site primarily. If it wasn’t for RQ, I would never have known about the backlog.
April 25th, 2007 at 1:33 pm
Hi! First thank you RQ for your fantastic work. The second thing is; as you know, there are only LID from the first to 15 of July because the CCAA moved of building, so are those days excluded ? thanks again