More numbers
Let’s take a look at how previous referral batches looked on our polls vs how these referral batches look.
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Last month is small on all three polls. Smaller than we ever thought they would get. I hope they never do that again, and I refuse to use last month in my future projections unless we see something that horrid again. Maybe I’ll bring it up next year right after CNY, but other than that I just want to ignore that tiny month. This month is still a very small month, a good bit smaller than previous bad case scenarios. I hope they can get back to last year’s numbers again but I’m not sure if I should use last years numbers on projections anymore.
There is a persistent rumor that the CCAA has orders from higher up that will keep them from being able to process as many referrals this year as last year. The first referral batch in this fiscal year for them was the 9/9 to 9/27 batch, and we have only seen smaller batches starting with that batch. I have been trying to ignore that rumor, but it’s getting harder and harder to do that.
I’ll try to do some projections a little later but I need to do some thinking to figure out the best way to communicate where each projection is coming from. I didn’t do any projections last month about this month because I honestly had no idea what this month might look like. I tried to prepare families for 10/28 because so many agencies were doing that and it just seemed like that was a possibility. I’m glad they got beyond 10/28, but I am still faced with the fact that 11/1 is also pretty dismal.
How dismal? If you combine these two batches we are very close to a previous “bad case scenario” for a single month.
My plan right now is to look at the numbers and do projections and talk about those projections until referrals begin arriving. Once they begin arriving I’d like to have a day or two to just focus on the babies. If you are expecting a referral in this batch please feel free to let me know your blog address and blog name in the comments to this post and I’ll include it on my “list of blogs” that I’ll do on referral day.
April 30th, 2007 at 12:52 pm
I am expecting our referral with a 10/31/05 LID!! Please include my blog. Thanks, RQ!
http://journey2kristina.blogspot.com/
April 30th, 2007 at 1:14 pm
This is my first posting. We are just thrilled with the latest news. We are expecting our referral in this batch. Our LID is 10/27/05!! Please include our blog. Thank you very much!
http://www.journeytoannie.typepad.com
April 30th, 2007 at 1:35 pm
This is also my first posting. I have been a RQ follower for quite some time. We are expecting our referral in this back with a LID of 10-28. Please include our blog!!
http://waiting4oliviainchina.blogspot.com
April 30th, 2007 at 1:38 pm
RQ…You are amazing..thanks for being so receptive to everyone’s feelings about the wait…….thanks for trying to analyze everything…d
April 30th, 2007 at 1:45 pm
RQ, you ROCK! Thank you for all you do!
April 30th, 2007 at 1:57 pm
wow, RQ, i can see why you’re having trouble ignoring that rumor ( the one about a new, lower, referral quota that started in sept of this year) the poll numbers point to it rather dramatically. it makes me feel the need to alter yet again my projections for my 2/06 LID.
it also makes me think that whoever said that it would take all of 07 to refer all of 05 really knew something. i thought they were insane at the time…
April 30th, 2007 at 2:02 pm
I am expecting my in this batch with a 10-27 LID! Thanks so much for all of the info-originally I thought we would receive our referral while you were gone-I am so glad you are back! Congratulations to everyone who is about to receive their referrals! I can’t wait to see all of the sweet babies!
Angel
http://www.journeytoannagrace.com
April 30th, 2007 at 2:08 pm
Thanks RQ
Your post is an important one to help us remember that things are really not moving any faster…in fact they are sloooowwwingggg down.
I think we were so beaten down last month that any bone they throw us over two days was something to get excited about.
But in the long run….it ain’t such great news.
Unless of course you are 11/1 or before.
Also…I think we are seeing lots more excitement on the boards as fellow RQ’ers start to actually get referrals. I think each month more and more of our friends will start to get the happy news.
For a while there we were all so new there were few of us who were covered by the referral dates.
Good news for those in Nov.
Same old same old for the rest of us in 2006 and 2007.
April 30th, 2007 at 2:10 pm
RQ, thanks for all you do. I am not sure how I would have survived these 2+ years without you! I am expecting my referral this week with a LID of 10/31/05. Please include my website: http://dempsey.redthreadkids.org Have a great week–I know I will :-)
Ginny
April 30th, 2007 at 2:48 pm
RQ,
You rock! Thanks for your continued thoughtful analysis. I know you must have your hands full with the youngest Rumor Princess and we so appreciate all that you do for all of us!
LID 11/17/05
April 30th, 2007 at 2:51 pm
First of all, congratulations to all of you getting your referrals this week! Bring on the pictures!
RQ - my question is “WHY?” Why are the higher ups asking that they slow down referral rates? Any logic to this? This just mystifies me!
April 30th, 2007 at 3:19 pm
Thank you as always for keeping up with all of this. I don’t know how you manage to balance all of the demands that there must be on your time.
I have to admit I was thrilled to see Nov 1 when I logged in this morning, since I had been prepared for Oct 28. This entry has tempered my enthusiasm quite a bit, but I am so glad to have this information available.
April 30th, 2007 at 4:34 pm
RQ - Thanks for the analysis and it is so wonderful to hear that you plan to continue to do this for some time. You provide so much to all who are waiting.
Although it is better than last month, the analysis puts it in perspective - things are slowing down more. That awful persistent rumor about fewer babies this year is just dreadful, but could explain it. Without the poll I would be tempted to attribute the 6 days to a big month, but it doesn’t seem to be. I am a believer that the slow down is orchestrated because China will be on the world stage for the Olympics and want to present an image of an improving situation regarding abandonned children. I know that many disagree, and I sure hope I am wrong. It really looks like I am looking at 2009 which is just too far away for me to internalize.
Best Wishes to everyone getting a referral this week! I can’t wait to see the announcements and photos!
April 30th, 2007 at 5:47 pm
Okay, I have confirmation from my agency that the cutoff date is indeed 11/1, so I BELIEVE!!!!!
Check out our blog for pictures as soon as we receive them!
Blog title: The Pucketts
http://www.thepucketts.homestead.com/LauraGrace.html
April 30th, 2007 at 5:53 pm
I am so excited for everyone who is going to get a referral this time. So sad for everyone who misses the cutoff…….
April 30th, 2007 at 5:55 pm
Hit send too soon… By the way, our China only agency says their cutoff is 10-28-05. They don’t have another LID group until Nov 4th.
April 30th, 2007 at 5:58 pm
This process can sure teach one about patience.
Our soon to be daughter’s blog can be found at http://www.mayatuckman.com
Blog: Maya Tuckman
LID 10-27-05
April 30th, 2007 at 6:16 pm
RQ — thank you very much for your kind and generous service to we waiters. you provide an invaluable stream of information unmatched by our agency and we are grateful. just wondering if you think that the prospective may referrals, if they turn out as rumored, mean that there will be enough “catch-up” going on to render an early July referral for a 12/7/05 LID. ideas? thoughts?
April 30th, 2007 at 6:36 pm
Congratulations to everyone, who made the cut off this month. I have been around since June, so it’s nice to see some of the old timers completing their journeys.
Best wishes to all of you!!!
Jo-Anne
2/28/06
April 30th, 2007 at 7:00 pm
I am beyond excited for all those getting referrals. I keep dreaming that things will speed up, and with an ‘06 lid, where I love the fact that we finally entered Nov., I sure wish we could get out of ‘05…… I know, I’m never satisfied I guess.
Meanwhile, I’ll have to live through all of you…….CONGRATULATIONS!!!!
Shelley
lid 3/28/06 ?
April 30th, 2007 at 9:05 pm
HAPPY HAPPY HAPPY DANCE!
LID 11/11/05
April 30th, 2007 at 10:22 pm
It was all shock and horror last month - I think our referrals perhaps should be feted with the new ones that come in this month, so we can bask in the congratulations and joy of this group!
PJM
LID 10/26/05
DOR 4/6
TA arriving tomorrow??
April 30th, 2007 at 10:25 pm
PS Can’t WAIT to see those new babes!
PJM
http://www.seekingbabysister.blogspot.com
May 1st, 2007 at 2:49 am
Is it possible that the late October referral batches appear smaller on RQ’s polls because a high percentage referrals sent on those dates went to countries or agencies where not as many people are coming to this RQ site? If so, the batches could look lower here but maybe aren’t really lower.
Probably wishful thinking, but I cling to whatever optimistic threads I can find! Just thought I’d throw it out there.
May 1st, 2007 at 6:49 am
I think RQ does have a lot of readers worldwide. And as she indicated there are reasons other than the polls to conclude that the batch last month was VERY small.
May 1st, 2007 at 7:23 am
Gotchaback~
I can totally relate :)
Jo-Anne
2/28/06
May 1st, 2007 at 9:15 am
Thank you so much for all of the work you put into this site. It has been so helpful during this wait!
With an LID of Oct. 27, we are finally getting our referral!! Please add our site to your list:
http://twoandahighchair.blogspot.com/
May 1st, 2007 at 9:25 am
Add us to your list of blogs expecting referrals this week!!! We are at: http://www.youbelong.net/therandalls
Debbie
LID 10/27/05