We have a couple of data points that I feel fairly comfortable with that I’d like to use to analyze things.

Referral batches usually include between 400 and 700 babies each
The recent referral batch only included around 200 babies

The second data point comes from several agencies AND it seems to agree with our polls.
My biggest question [...]

The agency with a package arriving tomorrow apparently no longer believes that package includes referrals. However, they have something else on the way that should arrive Monday and they think there is a chance that package is referrals.
Two agencies are saying referrals will not arrive until the second week of May.
Everything is an R3.

An agency has told their clients they have something coming from the CCAA that is scheduled to arrive tomorrow. They do not know if it is referrals or not but seem to think there is at least a chance that it is. Their next LID is 10/28.
I’ll give this one an r5 that the agency [...]

I think we have some more answers to when the adoption is final and what the implications of this are. From people’s experiences, it sounds like it is usually considered final by the orphanage director and by the Civil Affairs office if you’ve signed the paperwork, and not based on whether it has been registered [...]

We’ve done this exercise a few times before but it’s been a while and it is time to do it again.
I believe that the best predictor for those who are within one to three months of a referral is still the polls. I’m hoping last month was an anomaly, but if it wasn’t and (heaven [...]

The first rumor is from Europe and says we will see two to three days this time. A November 1st LID was told to not expect hers this time.
Is this from CCAA or is this an agency making an educated guess?
I don’t know. This one gets an R2.