Analysis
First, the question of when referrals will arrive. Some agencies are expecting a package today while others are expecting one tomorrow. I don’t know whether it will be today or tomorrow.
Before I get started on the analysis I’d like to point out that the polls do not represent 100% of the people in line. The polls represent about 35%, give or take about 4%. When I discuss numbers below I’m talking about the most recent poll numbers, not total numbers.
If you missed the post before this one you may want to refer to it to get an idea of how many referrals have been made in previous months.
If they do another 170 matches this time that will take us to November 8th. Do I dare call this a bad case scenario? It’s been worse, after all, and there is no guarantee in my mind that we know what to use for the lower end.
If we use the polls to balance each other then the good case scenario would be 298. That takes us to November 16th. It’s been a long time since they’ve done that kind of volume and I don’t think that is going to happen this month. So we’ll call that the unlikely best case scenario.
What to use as the likely best case scenario? I think we have to use 240 which takes us to November 13th.
What do I think will happen? I don’t know what to think. I suppose officially I’ll have to say June referrals are likely to cut off somewhere between the 8th and 13th inclusive. I hope that the 8th is the lower end of what we will see, but I’m not convinced of that. I just cannot bring myself to say “possible bad case scenario of November 5th”, but at the same time I don’t want to give anyone from the 5th through the 8th the idea that they are a sure thing this time. So perhaps I should say between the 5th and 13th to be on the safe side?
While I’ve got a poll image up I’d like to again state that it will be a while before I do another daily poll. From the looks of things this poll should last us at least another five months so it will probably be at least three months before I do another daily poll. I will likely do another monthly poll before then, but right now I can’t tell you when that will be. Please do not email or PM me to ask when I’m going to do a poll that will include your date. We’ll get there eventually, but there is no need in doing it too far out or it is just not accurate.
And finally, it is May 1st, the drop dead date for the new rules. I know a lot of people are hoping the CCAA speeds up after this date, with the theory being that they won’t need as many people in the log in room and those people can help out with matching or something else. Since we are told that the CCAA matches all available paper ready babies every month, I don’t see how having a little more manpower will speed up the referral process. It might speed up the TA’s, or maybe something in the SN process, but I just don’t see it speeding up referrals.
And now - come on referrals! We need some baby pictures!
May 1st, 2007 at 9:11 am
With 11/23 lid I would love a July/August referral!
May 1st, 2007 at 9:16 am
With an 11/11 LID I just don’t feel like we’ll be next. I’m not basing that on fact, just the way I feel. I guess I’m kind of worn out from all this waiting.
May 1st, 2007 at 9:23 am
Hi RQ,
I really think you are right on the mark…I have been thinking that a cut-off for next month would be between the 9-11th; with the 9-10th being the most likely…but I know it could be earlier…..later seems unlikely to me as well….all we can do is wait. Please bring on those referrals.
Amygum…with the same LID, I also would like to dream of this…but I hate to say it…August seems like the ‘best scenario to me’…
May 1st, 2007 at 10:06 am
So a question, IF, and I know it is if, manpower is being used to log in “the big rush” once it is over is is possible those people could be sent to help the Review Room?
I know we haven’t yet set a record for being in review but it getting very tiresome dreading “a Call”.
Thanks,
B
LID 4/19/06
May 1st, 2007 at 10:08 am
RQ,
It really is amazing that you’ve kept this blog up — despite your new little one and all of your work responsibilities. I’m sure those families that are still waiting are breathing a huge sigh of relief that you’re still here.
This is the earliest we’ve ever known the cut-off date, isn’t it? I’ve been deeply immersed in this culture since January ‘06, and I don’t ever remember knowing the cut-off this long before seeing referrals announced.
Congratulations to all those 10/27-11/1 families who are floating around about 3 feet off the ground, anxiously awaiting their referrals!
May 1st, 2007 at 10:14 am
As an 11/5 LID I am so nervous about even saying there is a chance we are next. I think, “It’s just 4 days right?” Well that theory was shot in April, so I will just keep checking in and hoping for the best.
A June referral would be most awesome though. I want to see it get to the 16th or 17th. That would be really awesome.
May 1st, 2007 at 10:21 am
someone in the october yahoo group has posted that her referral is here. she has an lid of 10/28.
May 1st, 2007 at 12:30 pm
With a Nov 7 LID I am now thinking we are NEXT.
I know I can be wrong (look at 2 days) but as that is only 4 1/2 workdays (I’m counting sat as a 1/2)..I think we may squeeze in. I know I shouldn’t count on it and goodness knows we’ve been here long enough not to know better but hey its just too hard not to try and hope.
So I’m going with your worse case of the 8th in my head (and crossing everything hoping)
May 1st, 2007 at 1:05 pm
Frustrated, I am right there with you! We are also Nov 7 and I am thinking that June is going to be OUR month. I am still being a little guarded, though, because as we all know too well, things can change. It is hard not to have a little hope come back to mind.
But with all of the wonderful announcements now coming out, just keep remembering our time is soon to come!!!!!!
May 1st, 2007 at 1:55 pm
RQ: Thanks for the ananlysis and all your work in the forum. It is greatly appreciated from by all the waiting families, you are truly a special person.
Hope the girls are geting along well.
May 1st, 2007 at 3:21 pm
What if the employees who have been trying to log in the surge of pre-May 1 dossiers were then moved to either review room or to working with SWIs to get their paperwork in order. If they are bringing on new SWIs I am sure they need some hand holding in the beginning. We all know how people are moved around to deal with the priority of the day/week/month when resources are limited (always).
Just wishful thinkng, and I am usually the pessimist.
May 1st, 2007 at 6:04 pm
Thanks RQ! I cannot wait until I can be in a daily LID poll, it will be SOOOO exciting!