The difference in 2001 and 2007
In 2001 the wait started creeping up. And by creeping I mean that the CCAA often referred three and a half weeks, or occasionally only three weeks, so the wait was very gradually getting longer.
When the quota was announced the wait was at around 9 months IIRC. And the CCAA said that they had concerns about the time it was going to take to get through the backlog so they were putting a quota in place so things didn’t get out of hand. Families were warned that things would continue to go slow until they reached the quota months, and from the very beginning we heard numbers of a “12 to 14 month wait before it begins coming back down”. Many people didn’t want to accept that, but that was the standard assumption in about November or December of 2001.
The quota was set up so that November of 2001 would be the last non-quota month and beginning in December each agency could submit a percentage of what they had been submitting. November was a huge month as everyone pushed to get in before the waiting lists started. Over the next year until they reached that large November month the wait continued to gradually go up. There were a few months that a little more than a month was referred and there was a jog downward in waiting times, but most months they referred just barely under a month or maybe (gasp) only three weeks worth.
Everyone knew during this time that once the November people were referred that the wait would start going back down. And everyone knew that the wait was supposed to reach the 12 to 14 month time frame before that happened. And everyone knew that November would take a while to get through. Towards the very end it was unclear if November was going to take 3 months or 4 months to get through, but it ended up taking 3.
I’m not saying there weren’t rumors. Especially when they managed to get more than a month done, we’d see rumors that the slowdown was over and it would pick back up to full months until they reached November. Which of course did not happen and everyone would be disappointed when the next month was only 28 days worth.
When the CCAA reached November it took three batches to get through that month, with the last of November being referred in January of 2003 with a 14 month wait from DTC (not LID) to referral. Beginning in February of 2003 the CCAA reached the quota months and started referring two months at a time and as expected the wait drastically came down. And then a few months later SARS came and it went back up briefly before plummeting once more.
What I’m saying here is that back then we had a very good idea of what the wait was going to do and exactly when the wait would begin coming down. The CCAA communicated this to agencies and the agencies communicated it to families. There were still some discrepancies and wild rumors (of course) but most everyone understood the basic facts of 12 to 14 months wait before they reached the quota months and then the wait would begin coming down. Not everyone wanted to accept those facts, but they were still out there.
Right now we all know that the wait will begin coming down when they reach the May of 2007 families, but no one knows how long it will take to get through the backlog and begin referring those families.
Almost every agency is now admitting the wait will reach at least two years, but many agencies are now warning that the wait will reach somewhere closer to 3 years. While I see the possibility that the wait could get higher than three years I don’t think it will happen, just as I am not saying for sure that the wait will reach three years, I am just saying that there is a very good chance that it might happen. Let me try that again. While the possibility is there that the wait will be greater or lesser than three years, I think that the three year range seems the best guess right now for those logged in April and May of 2007 unless something changes, and as of yet the CCAA has not communicated that something could change. Agencies are saying that they are told by the CCAA that we will see “more of the same”.
Last year there were agencies who assured their families that the wait would not go over 12 months. When the wait went over 12 months clients were assured that the CCAA did not want it over 12 months and it would not be long before they brought it down under 12 months again.
And then we heard from agencies that the CCAA was not going to allow the wait to go over 14 months as the CCAA were absolutely not prepared to deal with paperwork expiring for Americans. And then when we got to the point that paperwork was expiring the CCAA indignantly stated that instead of asking them to bring the wait down that the U.S. Government should extend the time the I-171H is good. Their point was that paperwork expiring is our problem and not theirs, if we don’t like it we should change when the paperwork expires. Which is a good point, but is the opposite of what agencies were telling us of what the CCAA supposedly told them.
And next we heard that the wait would not go over 18 months. Now that the wait is 18 months we are being told by those same agencies that it won’t go over 2 years. One agency is saying it will begin coming down next month. Excuse me if I’m a bit skeptical.
To summarize, I think that the wait is going to be at least two years, and I think that is going to happen sooner rather than later. November is a huge month and I think there is a good chance that we’ll be within a few months of two years before they finish referring the 2005 families. At that point we’ll be in a new fiscal year for the CCAA and anything could happen as they begin referring the 2006 families so as always we have to wait and see if any changes are made.
May 2nd, 2007 at 12:48 pm
what of:
1. hunan coming back into the mix?
2. CCAA allowing more orphanages to refer children for international adoption?
doesn’t this indicate that the 600-a-month “quota” we hear about is on the verge of lifting?
and don’t you think that will do a great deal to alleviate the wait times?
May 2nd, 2007 at 12:57 pm
Hunan was never offline. There were a number of orphanages that were pulled out of the IA program for several months, some say seven and some say twelve. At any rate, the orphanage at the center of it all had referrals as early as last fall, all of those orphanages have already been back in the program for a while.
I’m seeing rumors of the CCAA allowing more orphanages to participate. If that is the case and if it started happening two months ago then we could expect to see referrals out of those orphanages in about another 5 or 6 months.
However, we had this exact same rumor at this time last year. And the rumors leading up to October (I think) were all over the place about a huge month coming because of the influx of paperwork from all of these new orphanages. And it did not happen.
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:04 pm
RQ-First thanks…I agree with your analysis..
Buzz buzz..I think the impact that was felt by the ‘Hunan issue’ is more or less finished with ie it affected the number of referrals last fall probably, but I don’t think it was the only variable ..These days it seems that most of the referrals come from Jiangxi Province anyway…I suspect they opened up more orphanages in this province or in others, and just have fewer referrals from Hunan province.
As for the 600 month quota..if anything, I think we will see fewer babies referred per month (that certainly happenned last month)..which is why I do not see wait times stabilizing at this point…Even if they refer two weeks per month..this still will mean increasing wait times…
RQ; I think your analysis is very accurate…not an easy thing to hear…
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:04 pm
RQ- I agree with everything you have said. With an LID Of 12/9/05, I’m hoping for a great case scenario of a referral in September, but I know that Nov/Dec is a realistic estimate.
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:10 pm
RQ- I LOVE YOU!
I really missed you while you were gone… It really is the ‘information’ that you share that keeps me going. I’m hungry for this stuff and you seem to be the only resource out there.
Thank-you from the bottom of my heart!
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:14 pm
Wow, I think RQ is right on the money here. No matter what the issues are for the slow down (I suspect it’s a myriad of issues causing this drastic slow down), these long wait times will definitely have prospective adoptive parentsf turn to other programs. I know my hubby and I would’ve chosen other program if we’d known the wait post-LID would be up to two years for us. I just hope for those who follow us in the future that the wait decreases and the whole program stabilizes to what it was. Hang in there everyone.
Kathi
LID 11/18/05
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:15 pm
RQ, Thanks for laying out exactly why this time is not the same as the last time wait times increased. I have understood that this time is very different for almost a year now. I actually left one large discussion group because anytime I mentioned how frightening the new situation is, I would get slammed that it is EXACTLY like it was in 2002-03. I don’t doubt that things will remain unpredictable, and there could be brief flurries of more referrals, but the overall trend toward longterm slowdown is crystal clear. I wish it weren’t.
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:18 pm
I’m glad RQ addressed this issue. I’m a bit tired of seeing posts stating something to the effect that “the wait has gone down in the past and it could just as easily happen again”. The situation is very different now than during the previous slowdown and to compare the two is like comparing apples to kiwi’s. We have a good idea of how many dossiers are backlogged as well as a rough average of the number referrals per month. Simple math reveals the wait will not decrease unless some miracle should occur.
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:23 pm
RQ–
You said ALL…and you included all the important facts and said it as well as anyone could.
Pretty much sums it all up for us who are waiting!
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:25 pm
Having been in the midst of the 2001-2003 slowdown, I totally agree. By the time our referral came (14 months), we *KNEW* it was taking 14 months. Having that knowledge made a big difference. This time around, the wait keeps growing and growing, and people waiting don’t have that knowledge.
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:27 pm
I must have missed it, but what was the LID cutoff for this batch of referrals???
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:28 pm
I must have missed it, but what was the LID cutoff for this last batch of referrals?
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:29 pm
Thanks RQ for the great analysis as usual. Congratulations to all that received referrals this time. I am seeing some pretty darn cute babies. I have a LID of October 2006 so I know I have a long wait. Frankly, I am expecting a 48 month wait and informed my extended family of this expectation back during Christmas. For my daughter, I will wait as long as it takes. I try to have this attitude on my hopeful, happy days. I try to have this attitude on my sad, frustrated days. But, not matter how I feel; I always know that for her, I will endure.
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:29 pm
e~t~c:
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/04/30/november-1st/
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:45 pm
RQ, do you have any early estimates on the size of April 2007 DTCs?
It will also be interesting to know what May 2007 will look like…
Thank you.
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:46 pm
I should point out that my three year figure is based on the theory that the middle of 2006 has less people logged in, and based on the attrition that I think will happen. Without those factors it could very easily be well over three years.
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:48 pm
postfarm – I’ll do another monthly LID poll soon but I’m not sure how accurate it will be for those months. I have a feeling that most people out that far are going to get logged in and then try to just “forget” about the adoption for a few years since they should be well aware of the time they have to wait.
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:55 pm
BuzzBuzz, there were SN referrals very recently from Hunan to Europe, so it definitely is online.
May 2nd, 2007 at 1:55 pm
Good analysis. I remember back in late summer of 2006 wondering why the CCAA hadn’t instituted another quota. But that was when we started getting the rumors of the new requirements. I was very surprised when the CCAA gave months worth of notice for the new requitements because back in 2001 when the first quota came into being, they gave only one months notice.
My heart goes out to everyone waiting and waiting and waiting.
May 2nd, 2007 at 2:00 pm
So let me get this straight — the CCAA intends to make referrals based on dossiers that will end up being 2 – 3- 4-plus years old. Isn’t that pretty irresponsible? I know an updated home study is required for a new 171, but it’s my understanding that while a copy of your most recent home study accompanies you to China, it is never reviewed by the CCAA. And yes — I understand that you “should” report any changes in your circumstances to your agency, but let’s face it, after waiting so long, a lot of people will simply take a “don’t ask – don’t tell” approach to this. Isn’t this a pretty dicey situation in the making?
May 2nd, 2007 at 2:06 pm
shanggirls – there was only one month “official notice” last time (though we knew months before the official notice) because families paperchasing would still be able to submit their dossier, they might just have to wait a bit to do it. It just moved some of the waiting to before DTC and some of it to after DTC.
With the new rules the people who did not qualify had a literal drop dead date that if their paperwork wasn’t in by then they would not be able to submit.
I am very surprised that the CCAA did not do this a year earlier, but not at all surprised that they gave the amount of time they did once they made their announcement.
May 2nd, 2007 at 2:07 pm
chinasyndrome – yep, that’s what I’ve been saying as well.
May 2nd, 2007 at 2:07 pm
ChinaSyndrome-
I totally agree. I think that the CCAA is going to clue in pretty soon that our paperwork is old and outdated and I have a feeling we are going to have to do a second dossier someday soon.
In a year, I could get arrested, divorced, buy a new house, lose the house in a gambling debt, give birth to 2 babies. . . A whole lot can happen.
May 2nd, 2007 at 2:13 pm
I think chinasydrome makes a valid point. Besides, if it is going to take 3 years to referral…then why would families renew their 171 while waiting? Especially if they’d have to renew twice between referral? I, personally, would acquire the initial one, then wait to refile until about 4 months before when I “expect” to receive referral…therefore causing me to not have a valid 171 for potentially a year or more (that is if the wait gets to 3 years). Certainly this wait makes me fairly confident we will not be adopting from China again, unfortunately. LID 12/20/05
May 2nd, 2007 at 2:13 pm
I should address this better.
The CCAA is (I believe) assuming that any changes would come up in your updated home study, and that your social worker will clue your adoption agency in on any changes, and that your adoption agency will notify CCAA of any changes.
As of right now the CCAA is not interested in seeing an updated I-171H unless yours is expiring and you have not yet been through the review room. So it is totally up to the agency’s discretion whether to send a notification in of any changes in circumstance. And it is totally up to the social worker’s discretion to make note of any changes in circumstance.
There are some reasons the USCIS will refuse to give you another I-171H, but to my knowledge the only things the USCIS care about is that the income level is still sufficient and that there is still no criminal history.
If at some point the CCAA realizes that families have had major changes in circumstances and they have not been notified then there is a good chance they could start requiring all home study updates come to them and be reviewed before referral. If that happens then I’d guess there would be a much bigger slowdown as everyone is pretty much reviewed again.
May 2nd, 2007 at 2:14 pm
What about the tax credit being lowered to $5000 in 2010, this could effect many of us logged in in the past few months and those ahead of us?
What about lobbying for extensions on 171H’s rather than having to do new ones entirely, seems a bit idiotic to me, hey, I’ve done the immigration thing twice, once myself and once for my daughter, what a drama…it could be soooo much easier if we just had to get an extension on the current one and submit an update & new clearances to the ‘current’ file.
May 2nd, 2007 at 2:21 pm
Neither the USCIS nor the State Department is interested in extending the I-171H out any farther. However, they are working on a process to renew it that will supposedly simplify things.
As for the tax credit, it is my understanding that it sunsets in 2011 unless lawmakers do something about it.
May 2nd, 2007 at 2:24 pm
RQ,
That is what I said, in 2001 there was a one month notice before the quota became official.
I see your point in that the length of time for these latest rule changes…..because some families would have completely been eliminated after already applying to an agency under the old rules. But it does seem that this past time, some families were able to start and complete their dossiers between the time the changes were announced and into effect.
Although it is not the same, it was a similar situation for singles back in 2001. If the dossier was not in by the time the quota went into effect, then the chances of obtaining a slot were slim. Some singles had to wait very long times to be able to submit a dossier. At least they were able to eventually submit unlike many of the families eliminated as of May 1.
May 2nd, 2007 at 2:31 pm
I thought I sent this earlier, but it hasn’t shown up.
RQ,
I did say that the CCAA gave only one month notice before the 2001 quota went into effect.
I do see your point on giving everyone a few months notice about the May 1 changes, because many who had already applied to agencies may not have qualified after May 1.
May 2nd, 2007 at 2:40 pm
yeah shanggirls – I knew you said that, I was just explaining why the difference in last time and this time.
May 2nd, 2007 at 2:48 pm
RQ, Thanks so much for the great post on the wait.
Because of this blog my family can plan a lot better for the future. Thinking that I needed to save up all vacation time and personal days for our China trip I havent had a break in 2 years, but since we know that with a 3-20-06 LID travel is a long way off, we will be off to Florida for 5 whole sun soaked days!!!!!!!
Thanks again for you do
Big Congrats to all those who just received referalls
May 2nd, 2007 at 2:48 pm
This might be off-topic a little bit – but if you allow your I-171H to expire while you wait and you re-apply after the U.S. implements the Hague Treaty – would you fall under the new regulations and whatever that entails? Don’t know the answer but I wonder….any insight?
May 2nd, 2007 at 2:50 pm
I didn’t mean “re-apply” in my message above – I meant “renew” your I-600A – sorry!
May 2nd, 2007 at 2:58 pm
RQ~ OMG!!! THANK YOU!!! THANK YOU!!! THANK YOU!!! I am so glad that you laid this all out. Of course, as usual, you have been able to sum up all the info into a single post.
I am sick and tired of people trying to compare what’s going on now to what happened in year’s past!! Then, in response to anyone who has evaluated the available info and made reasonable predictions based upon same, they claim the person “can’t know what’s going to happen in the future” or is “obsessing about the wait” or is “just guessing” –first of all they need to learn the difference between a guess and an estimate, they are two VERY different things. Second, although I am more than happy to let other people believe whatever they choose (no raining on anyone’s parade for me) I think it is absolutely unfair to respond with unlikely (impossible???) scenarios when people are trying to get info so they can plan their lives.
The wait is what it is, no doubt and I guess people can hope for whatever they want but I prefer to live in the land of reality, thank you very much! And, if something wonderful happens tomorrow, like they make tons and tons more babies paper ready, GREAT!!! But, if it continues on as it has, I’d like to be prepared.
Susan
LID 2/13/06 –who should have her referral two months ago based upon the claims of some that “CCAA would never let the wait get over 12 mos” –YEAH RIGHT!!!
May 2nd, 2007 at 3:00 pm
RQ-
A belated congrats on your little one finally being home. So so happy for you.
I totally agree with everything you have said in your post and have been thinking about the same issues myself. Thanks for demystifying things for all of us with this post. I hope that someone at my agency reads your post! Although some agencies now admit the current wait is 20 months, and could get longer, mine at least is still talking about the wait times like a mystical event. “Oh, we NEVER know… the wait can go UP or DOWN!- it has done that before.”
As sad as it is for my family and others, a look at the facts you present helps us all come to terms with why this slowdown is not like the others.
As always, thanks for your efforts in keeping up with this site. Because of your efforts I more informed about so many issues with adoption from China. I deeply appreciate all that you do!
Firelamb
LID 3_29_06
May 2nd, 2007 at 4:11 pm
Hi!
Here in The Netherlands after the conversations with the Dutch Child Care and the medical examination you get a so called “adoption permission” of the Ministry of Justice. This permission is valid 3 years and 3 months before the permission will expire you have to apply for a new permission. What follows is a new conversation with the Dutch Child Care and a new medical examination. This – maybe – new information will go to CCAA.
So, our permission is dated February 2006 and with a LID of Jan. 18, 2007 I guess at the end of next year we will have to apply for a new permission.
May 2nd, 2007 at 4:49 pm
“I have a feeling that most people out that far are going to get logged in and then try to just “forget†about the adoption for a few years since they should be well aware of the time they have to wait.”
I’m here, and I’ve got an LID of 3/29/07.
May 2nd, 2007 at 5:16 pm
Any idea why China didn’t impliment another round of quotas when the wait began to climb so quickly over a year ago? All of us in line now wouldn’t have wanted to be the ones not allowed to apply, but at the same time, we could have made different decisions based on something the “experts” should have seen coming.
Also, what happened to the old quotas? Did I read sometime about agencies beginning to disregard the quotas? If that is the case, shame on them and they need to rethink how they do business. (A problem of their own making that hurts us all.)
May 2nd, 2007 at 5:26 pm
So the adoption credit may end in 2011? Bad news for us as we will not be LID until Feb 2008 (waiting on that 30th birthday)…. we could easily wait until 2011 for our referral.
May 2nd, 2007 at 6:36 pm
Hi RQ-
Does CCAA really have any way to know if people drop out of the program? For example if people just decide not to renew their 171 and to not continue waiting because over the course of time their family’s plans have changed, etc. How would CCAA know not to send them a referral? I can see families and agencies potentially not getting that info out to CCAA. As was well read recently, a family thought they had dropped out of the program and still received a referral. I’m just wondering if the wait gets to 3 years how many families might receive a referral who were no longer expecting to.
May 2nd, 2007 at 6:47 pm
May,
Sounds kinda funny. I’ve heard of oops pregnancies. These would be oops adoptions.
May 2nd, 2007 at 6:57 pm
Damn Anti-spam word.
That sounds a lot better than what I’ve heard the past couple of days. I’ll take that, Funny how a month ago I would have cried over this theory, and now I’m relieved.
What I don’t get is why an agency would tell their clients something like “It’ll speed up starting next month” when there’s no reason to believe that. Don’t they realize next month will come and go and when it doesn’t speed up their clients will realize they don’t have a clue?
N
May 2nd, 2007 at 7:12 pm
This is so frustrating and makes me want to SCREAM!!!!!
It’s so hard for me to imagine that it could take another year. With a lid of 3/28/06, and currently needing to redo our I600…… AND wanting to beat the price increase, what’s a person to do……. AHHHHHHHH!!! Our agency doesn’t want things to expire for us, I can’t imagine redoing these things 3 times………
May 2nd, 2007 at 7:20 pm
Agencies are supposed to notify the CCAA when a family drops out, and the CCAA returns the dossier to the agency. That is how an agency is sure that the dossier has been pulled.
It is very, very, very, important to make sure your agency does this if you drop out. Otherwise a baby will be referred that isn’t going to be adopted. I’m told that this could mean an extra six months that the child spends in an orphanage. Not cool.
May 2nd, 2007 at 9:47 pm
I wasn’t aware the tax credit was due to end in 2011, Great one more thing to worry about. Our lid is 2/2/07 Should I be worried? Please tell me no!!
May 2nd, 2007 at 9:50 pm
I will make sure our agency pulled our dossier when we backed out- I had no idea! I did recently receive the “prepare for travel” paperwork (even though we were only LID 11/06- do they do this to keep us excited?) after we had cancelled and was surprised. PS. We will be getting our Vietnam referral next month! Best of luck to all of you and hope the wait comes down!!!!
May 2nd, 2007 at 10:46 pm
To: waitforbaby – how long was it between your Viet Nam LID and your upcoming referral? Then, how long until you travel?
I am also concerned about those of us with China-only agencies. With the slow down in new applicants, will they have enough clients to keep them in business 2-3 years from now?
May 2nd, 2007 at 11:22 pm
RQ states: “Right now we all know that the wait will begin coming down when they reach the May of 2007 families”
I am not sure we really know this with any certainty. If the average number of referrals stays the same as it has been for the past year then the number of applications needs to drop to less than 40% of the average number of LID’s per month for the past year.
I think it might be less than 40% given the reality of the wait is settling in, but are there really other better options that can satisfy the 500 to 1000 people a month that this represents??? We know people who are starting the China process right now knowing they have a 3-4 year wait ahead of them, they just dont see a better option.
More importantly I just dont think we can possibly know how many babies they will be referring in 3 years time.
I think the very best we can hope is that the wait will stabilize at about three years. Of course even that is just a guess…it could still start coming down next month for all we really know.
May 3rd, 2007 at 12:07 am
RQ: Rumors are interesting but facts are undeniable and I’d appreciate your validating or refuting the conclusions drawn in this note.
Like everyone else we receive update letters from our agency on a regular basis. The latest letter arrived today, May 2, 2007. Among other things it tells us that the CCAA has reviewed dossiers with LIDs through 3/31/06 and processed referrals for families with LIDs through 10/26/05.
Upon checking our last update letter dated February 16, 2007 we found that the CCAA had reviewed dossiers with LIDs through 3/22/06 and processed referrals for families with LIDs through 10/13/05.
Assuming both these letters contain accurate information, the CCAA has processed only one additional week’s backlog of dossiers and only two additional weeks backlog of referrals in approximately 2.5 calendar months.
We have a LID of 7/4/06 which is 13 weeks beyond today’s “reviewed dossiers” date. If we apply the 1 week = 2.5 months rate for dossier review, it will be 32.5 weeks from today before our dossier will be reviewed.
Our LID of 7/4/06 is 36 weeks beyond today’s “processed referral” date. If we apply the 2 weeks = 2.5 months rate for referral process, it will be 45 months from today before our referral will be processed.
In summary…
Time since LID: 10.0 months
Additional time from today until dossier review: 32.5 months
Additional time from today until referral processed: 45.0 months
Total elapsed time from LID to dossier review: 10 months + 32.5 months = 42.50 months
Total elapsed time from LID to referral processed: 10 months + 45.0 months = 55 months
Thus, this analysis would suggest that it will take approximately 4.5 years from LID to referral assuming nothing happens to speed up or further slow this process.
Regardless, of our outcome, we believe that the agencies are acting irresponsibly when they suggest an 18 month LID to referral wait period. This is an unlikely, best case scenario that leads to high levels of frustration as the dates continue to move out and handicaps families trying to plan their lives. It’s clear that the agencies have no more “knowledge” than we do and are simply hoping the situation will improve. The right thing to do would be to offer a wait range that takes into account the best and worst case scenarios.
I look forward to your comments.
May 3rd, 2007 at 1:00 am
Does anyone remember the CCAA telling someone (a gov’t official? an adoption agency?) that adoptive parents should prepare for a 2 year wait by end of 2007?
I remember it vividly (but it could have been a dream) because there were debates on if that meant Dec 2005 LID would get a referral in Dec 2007. Or if they would be slightly under 2 years and Jan 2006 would be right at 24 months. This was right around the time we were DTC if I’m not mistaken (another reason I remember it well).
Guess it’s probably going to be true!
LID 9/14/2006, only 217 more LID to go!
May 3rd, 2007 at 5:57 am
jmsmommy98 – yes, I remember that, though I found it hard to believe at the time, it seems to be playing itself out right now.
Also, I remember the dad with a Dec 2005 LID who spoke with the director at a social function and asked him when he’d get his referral and was told “December”. At the time we thought it meant last December and that meant that they were in fact going to hold the wait at one year. Now I’m thinking there was a horrible play on words where he just didn’t say which December.
Waiting4China – if you feel comfortable with those numbers then feel free to use them. I’m using averages from the last five or six months of referrals and I’m trying to figure in what we think we know of the size of future months and I’m getting different numbers.
May 3rd, 2007 at 6:43 am
@GotchaBack
We are in the same boat. We are LID 03.27.06 and our agency here in MI wants us to renew our I-600A also.
We told them that we didn’t want to do that just yet, but we have to have a Home Study Update, and they require that we get this done now.
Unfortunately we are at the bottom of the financial pole compared to most that are adopting. This is becoming a major sticking point for us.
I realistically do not know how we will be able to update these things another time beyond this. Hopefully this wait gets reeled in some….If only either of our work places had adoption expense programs. I’m just happy that our 401k allowed us the luxury for loans to get this thing started.
May 3rd, 2007 at 7:04 am
Could someone refresh my memory about the two year wait in 2007- I read so many speculations here and educated guesses that I don’t remember exactly how the wording was that came from CCAA saying 2 years. I specifically remember the family asking and being told Dec., and I specifically remember when CCAA traveled to Austrailia and told the wait would grow to 18 months but I need the “words” as close as we can get them from the CCAA about the 2 years.
Thanks
May 3rd, 2007 at 7:33 am
Oh, how sad, that’s the same thought I was having about the guy in my DEC Yahoo group and his conversation with the director. I was just talking about it with a friend this week.
May 3rd, 2007 at 8:30 am
Ind7Mike- They are doing immediate referrals after LID (2 weeks). Our Dossier will be going to Vietnam in the next week or two. After we are matched with a baby travel is 30-60 days after that. They reportedly have more babies than dossier-ready parents, at least in some provinces. After the whole China thing I am not holding my breath but we have been assured that the process is smooth and rapid. We plan to travel in July.
Waiting for China- we NEVER received regular updates from our large China-only agency. I had to beg and plead for any info about the wait and they were still vague.
When we switched to Vietnam our social worker (we got to keep the same one and only had to do a homestudy update) mentioned how she felt sorry for the families who were in the process of the completing their homestudies for China. She said she felt like it was the agency’s responsibility, not hers, to tell them about the wait. That was a few months ago and the agency was telling new people the wait was about 12 months. After our China LID I became VERY disillusioned with our agency. I know they are running a business but they are engaging in false advertising!
May 3rd, 2007 at 8:31 am
We are LID on 2-7-06(I am pretty sure, to tell the truth, I have forgotten the exact date because I dont want to be disappointed) Anyway, our agency wants us to redo our homestudy as homestudies in our state are only good for one year. Also apply for a new i-171. Guess what, I am taking my time. We went through this in 2001-2002 and as a result,went to China with a brand spanking new i-171 that was good for 18 months. I decided a while ago that I am not rushing to do this on the off chance I would have to do it again. So, someday I will begin to renew our paperwork. Until then, I am just living my life. I was just so hopeful my kids would not be more than 4 years apart in age but, I am 99% sure that is not going to happen as DD#1 will be 6 in November. Oh well, back to the grind. Hang in there, Jane
May 3rd, 2007 at 9:16 am
Get this – I’m 3/21/06 and my SW just told me a couple of weeks ago, “Hurry up and renew your HS & redo your fingerprints, don’t let anything expire, you have to be ready for your referral in August!” I laughed out loud over the phone and asked her why she was saying that. She said, “Well the wait is about 15 months now and so that puts you around August.” I tried not to scream and calmly said that I was thinking it would be more like spring/summer of 2008 and I would ask my agency when I should renew paperwork. She was a bit suprised!
Why can’t they all read RQ??
My agency suggested to me to gamble and let things expire and start renewing 3 months before possible referral time. They just stressed that they can not make a consulate appointment without a valid I 171 and that those families that are not updated even with referral would not be able to travel with their group if it has expired.
So the closest thing to paperwork that I’m fooling with this summer is signing a Visa bill for a vacation!
Cheers,
MOONPIE
May 3rd, 2007 at 9:32 am
waitingintexas: with a 11/05 LID paid crazy attention to those two statements when they came out late last summer/early fall. If you look back through this site for July/Aug/Sept, you will find the original postings.
The statements came, as I recall, from parents working with the Australian gov’t and Dutch agencies, from conversations CCAA had on their ‘tour’ visits.
One piece of information was that the wait was expected to reach 18 months by the summer (summer 07): nothing more specifc than that.
What has happened: Nov 1 2005 LIDs just hit that 18-month mark with their early May 07 referrals. The rest of Nov, this summer, will see 19-22 months. So the wait did reach 18 months, as CCAA said, and went slightly beyond.
The second piece of info was that the wait would reach 24 months by the end of 2007. Again, nothing much more specific that that. AT the time I heard this, I mentioned on this site that this meant Dec 05 referred in Dec 2007. As RQ says above, it did seem unbelievable, (although it was exactly the info we were looking for!) From the information, we could not determine if CCAA meant *all* of Dec 05 referred by Dec 07, or if the 24 months included travel (not just referral), or if this meant ‘at least 24 months’ by the end of 2007 but possibly more.
It is turning out to mean that latter one: we have already surpassed (a little) the 18-months-by-summer CCAA info, so it is possible (probable, even) that we will surpass (a little) the 24-months-by-Dec-2007 CCAA info.
The CCAA really did tell agencies what was happening and likely to happen, a long time ago. And those statements have turned out to be accurate. I wonder if more agencies were told this, but only a few countries chose to pass this on to waiting parents. Hmmmm……
May 3rd, 2007 at 9:55 am
I agree with threebluesteps 100%…we heard all of this information last summer…it just seemed too horrible to be true. Now the three year +++ year rumour is starting to emerge and its hard to believe it will happen…. but unfortunately, it might be true…and once again it is so hard to hear….
The honest truth is we don’t know anything for sure. We do know that the wait for November 2005 LID’s will range between 18-22 or so months, ….and it will continue to expand if things continue on as they are…and everything points out that it will…I am really sorry that this happenning. The whole thing is hard for EVERYONE…
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:04 am
threebluesteps,
thanks for the re-cap- maybe you can help me with my thought here- we reached a 12 month wait 6/26/06 and now with this last batch have reached an 18 month wait. (I confirmed my memory with the stats RQ keeps for us) So it took 10 referral batches to get from the 12 month to the 18 month timeline. Also if you look at the stats RQ keeps for us and you track how many months it takes to get through a month you will see the longest so far has been three months. That includes May 06, June 06 and now Oct 06. How am I getting these numbers? I simply assign that months referrals to whatever month the cut off day is in. This batch we just had is the first batch assigned to November since the last day of the batch is in the Nov calendar month.
So my question is how long with it really take to get to 24 months? If they finish the majority of November in the next two batches and the batch after that may have a few days of Nov but will have some early days of Dec then we can call November 3 months as well. I hope this isn’t confusing, but if you look at the chart of referrals and start with the Oct 05 batch when they slow down began you can assign two months to get through all but the three listed above that took three months. To me this is encouraging because if we got through May and June in 6 hopefully we will get through Oct / Nov in 6 batches. This would trend the same even if it is slower and be close to finishing Dec between Sept and Nov this year. And that would still be a slow down over last year. I know this is long and will just add that by rounding the months it works the same as using the fractions. What do you think? Maybe it won’t take 10 months to get from 18 to 24 month wait but maybe it will.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:10 am
catherinethegreat,
I think before we would reach 22 months for Nov lid we would have to not finish Nov until Oct this year- that would mean Nov referred in 5 months ( June, July, Aug, Sept, and Oct) and wouldn’t even count this first day this month. Do you feel pretty convinced that it will take 5+ months to finish Nov? I am hoping (can’t help myself) we will do better than that.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:21 am
RQ and others who have posted here- Thanks so much for this thoughtful analysis. It does seem that we are very much on track for 3 years if not more. What baffles me is the absence of info on what to expect from CCAA given how dramatically things have changed these last 18 months.
The children would be better off if they were paired up with prospective parents who had entered at the best time for them given the expected wait times. And it seems like CCAA would be bombarded with fewer questions if they simply gave the agencies their best guess of how many children would be matched each month in the near future and how many LIDs there are in each month. It really seems like it would be a win-win-win (for CCAA, the children, and prospective parents).
In any case, I’m so happy for everyone who has gotten their referral or soon will. And especially for the children who will be matched with these wonderful families. But with a late 2006 LID we are starting to feel like this is not going to happen for us. We will stick it out though will try to shift our attention to other things in the meantime.
Good luck to everyone wherever you are in the process!!
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:30 am
RQ,
What are your thoughts on the time it will take to get to a 24 month wait? Hopefully you can make sense of my previous post to threebluesteps and everyone else. I found this in a search of this site looking for wording from CCAA about the 24 months and when:
“An agency apparently decided to write to the CCAA to see if the 24 months thing is accurate or not. The response was:
The waiting time relies on the number of children available for adoption, so it’s difficult to predict the waiting time of 2007. I can only say that 24 months is possible but there is no confirmed information about this. If so, it will increase gradually. So far, we don’t have new policies about this.
This sounds to me like they do not have a plan to stabilize things.
I’m not sure this tells us whether or not a small speed up may happen, but I do believe it means they don’t expect to go back to whole months.
This entry was posted on Thursday, October 12th, 2006 at 7:20 am and is filed under Rumors – wait related. You can follow any responses to ”
As you can see it if from last October. I guess I am really hoping the wait will continue to grow about 1/2 month per month on average and take 10 months again to grow 6 months in wait.
OK – last post from me this morning, would love to hear some comments on my thoughts.
Thanks
LID 3/21/2006
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:47 am
Waitingintexas…I actually hope they will finish November 2005 in September., but its possible it could take until October with a small part of November (latter few days) /December in October .which would mean a wait of 21-22 months…although November started in this batch..not sure we should really count this month in the count for total months… I think we will have a better idea next month (I hate saying this because I have been saying this to myself for months; for awhile it works and then you get a month like last month that really ruins that line of logic).
If things go like last year at this time…its even possible to finish in August (ie it takes 3 more months to be done with November), but since October was slated to be smaller than November (and October took 4 months to finish), I think it is more likely we will not finish November until Sept or October…I am hopeful for September…but prepared for October…and I do not want to say this is the ‘worst case scenario since none of us really know that anymore…)
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:32 am
RQ said: “I have a feeling that most people out that far are going to get logged in and then try to just “forget†about the adoption for a few years since they should be well aware of the time they have to wait. ”
I have friends adopting from China with a log in date of April 2007 and their agency is quoting them 18 months and they are still hoping to travel in ’08. I feel like this is irresponsible of the agency and makes me wonder if all the people who logged in right before the May 1 deadline *do* know what they’re in for. Btw, I did refer them to your site but I have no idea if they are going to check it out. Personally, I like researching predictions and rumors and then coming to my own conclusion. I think you are right on about this post and that is what I’ve been guessing for some time.
May 3rd, 2007 at 12:37 pm
We are LID 4/2/07 and at this point I honestly believe we are looking at a 3 year wait based on each month of LIDs taking approximately 3 months to complete. There are 17 months of LIDs ahead of us. When we started the process we were told that it was a 15 month wait and that the wait was likely to get a bit longer. 3 years is not a bit longer. I am angry because if we had known then what I know now we would have gone with another country. We have gotten together with others who are LID April 2007 and I agree with what tisramay is saying many of these couples believe that the wait is going to be 18-20 months for them and that they will be travelling in 08. I wish the best for everyone in the process and want to say thank you to RQ. for the info. I only wish I had been on RQ before we committed to China.
May 3rd, 2007 at 12:47 pm
Sorry,I did my math wrong, I think it’s going to be even longer than 3 years. What can I say…. Discouraged in Mass.
May 3rd, 2007 at 1:04 pm
Hi Everyone,
I’m new to the site — and so appreciating the resources and camaraderie.
About the tax credits changing… My congressman was working on repealing the sunset, and I believe keeping the amount at its current level. I sent a note to his office today to find out where that stands…
I’ve also been working with his office to try to extend the I171H… I’ve heard from a couple sources in DC that it will not actually require legislation — that they can achieve it with a simple rule change. (However, I’ve not heard of progress on the matter, so we should all keep voicing to our reps!) And, I heard that the plan is to put forth legislation so that we will not have to re-do the fingerprinting. I’m not sure how these extremely lengthened waits are going to impact all of this…
Our agency is encouraging us to wait to renew/re-do the paperwork… our International agency, that is. Our in-state homestudy agency is the one that wanted us to push forward and have no gaps in the paperwork. The China adoption agency said our paperwork only has to be current when we are in the review room and when we are matched (referral).
It’s great to be able to gather and share information here. I have a lot of respect and appreciation for what I’ve read and seen. And I am just loving seeing all of these precious faces in the referral photos. Congratulations to all the new parents. It’s so incredibly difficult to wait!
Lisa Marie
LID 3-3-06
May 4th, 2007 at 10:43 am
First timer here – not sure if I’m doing this right! Our LID is 1/27/06. I have no idea how many others from our agency share this LID. How would I find that information?