Comments on: The difference in 2001 and 2007 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/ Join the Rumor Queen as she looks for the latest rumors and then analyzes them, trying to figure out what the CCAA will do next. Thu, 28 Aug 2008 00:50:53 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: hope2bmomsoon http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34554 hope2bmomsoon Fri, 04 May 2007 15:43:26 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34554 First timer here - not sure if I'm doing this right! Our LID is 1/27/06. I have no idea how many others from our agency share this LID. How would I find that information? First timer here - not sure if I’m doing this right! Our LID is 1/27/06. I have no idea how many others from our agency share this LID. How would I find that information?

]]> By: lisamarie http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34505 lisamarie Thu, 03 May 2007 18:04:47 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34505 Hi Everyone, I'm new to the site -- and so appreciating the resources and camaraderie. About the tax credits changing... My congressman was working on repealing the sunset, and I believe keeping the amount at its current level. I sent a note to his office today to find out where that stands... I've also been working with his office to try to extend the I171H... I've heard from a couple sources in DC that it will not actually require legislation -- that they can achieve it with a simple rule change. (However, I've not heard of progress on the matter, so we should all keep voicing to our reps!) And, I heard that the plan is to put forth legislation so that we will not have to re-do the fingerprinting. I'm not sure how these extremely lengthened waits are going to impact all of this... Our agency is encouraging us to wait to renew/re-do the paperwork... our International agency, that is. Our in-state homestudy agency is the one that wanted us to push forward and have no gaps in the paperwork. The China adoption agency said our paperwork only has to be current when we are in the review room and when we are matched (referral). It's great to be able to gather and share information here. I have a lot of respect and appreciation for what I've read and seen. And I am just loving seeing all of these precious faces in the referral photos. Congratulations to all the new parents. It's so incredibly difficult to wait! Lisa Marie LID 3-3-06 Hi Everyone,

I’m new to the site — and so appreciating the resources and camaraderie.

About the tax credits changing… My congressman was working on repealing the sunset, and I believe keeping the amount at its current level. I sent a note to his office today to find out where that stands…

I’ve also been working with his office to try to extend the I171H… I’ve heard from a couple sources in DC that it will not actually require legislation — that they can achieve it with a simple rule change. (However, I’ve not heard of progress on the matter, so we should all keep voicing to our reps!) And, I heard that the plan is to put forth legislation so that we will not have to re-do the fingerprinting. I’m not sure how these extremely lengthened waits are going to impact all of this…

Our agency is encouraging us to wait to renew/re-do the paperwork… our International agency, that is. Our in-state homestudy agency is the one that wanted us to push forward and have no gaps in the paperwork. The China adoption agency said our paperwork only has to be current when we are in the review room and when we are matched (referral).

It’s great to be able to gather and share information here. I have a lot of respect and appreciation for what I’ve read and seen. And I am just loving seeing all of these precious faces in the referral photos. Congratulations to all the new parents. It’s so incredibly difficult to wait!

Lisa Marie
LID 3-3-06

]]> By: LaurainMass http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34504 LaurainMass Thu, 03 May 2007 17:47:11 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34504 Sorry,I did my math wrong, I think it's going to be even longer than 3 years. What can I say.... Discouraged in Mass. Sorry,I did my math wrong, I think it’s going to be even longer than 3 years. What can I say…. Discouraged in Mass.

]]> By: LaurainMass http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34503 LaurainMass Thu, 03 May 2007 17:37:41 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34503 We are LID 4/2/07 and at this point I honestly believe we are looking at a 3 year wait based on each month of LIDs taking approximately 3 months to complete. There are 17 months of LIDs ahead of us. When we started the process we were told that it was a 15 month wait and that the wait was likely to get a bit longer. 3 years is not a bit longer. I am angry because if we had known then what I know now we would have gone with another country. We have gotten together with others who are LID April 2007 and I agree with what tisramay is saying many of these couples believe that the wait is going to be 18-20 months for them and that they will be travelling in 08. I wish the best for everyone in the process and want to say thank you to RQ. for the info. I only wish I had been on RQ before we committed to China. We are LID 4/2/07 and at this point I honestly believe we are looking at a 3 year wait based on each month of LIDs taking approximately 3 months to complete. There are 17 months of LIDs ahead of us. When we started the process we were told that it was a 15 month wait and that the wait was likely to get a bit longer. 3 years is not a bit longer. I am angry because if we had known then what I know now we would have gone with another country. We have gotten together with others who are LID April 2007 and I agree with what tisramay is saying many of these couples believe that the wait is going to be 18-20 months for them and that they will be travelling in 08. I wish the best for everyone in the process and want to say thank you to RQ. for the info. I only wish I had been on RQ before we committed to China.

]]> By: tisramay http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34502 tisramay Thu, 03 May 2007 16:32:06 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34502 RQ said: "I have a feeling that most people out that far are going to get logged in and then try to just “forget” about the adoption for a few years since they should be well aware of the time they have to wait. " I have friends adopting from China with a log in date of April 2007 and their agency is quoting them 18 months and they are still hoping to travel in '08. I feel like this is irresponsible of the agency and makes me wonder if all the people who logged in right before the May 1 deadline *do* know what they're in for. Btw, I did refer them to your site but I have no idea if they are going to check it out. Personally, I like researching predictions and rumors and then coming to my own conclusion. I think you are right on about this post and that is what I've been guessing for some time. RQ said: “I have a feeling that most people out that far are going to get logged in and then try to just “forget” about the adoption for a few years since they should be well aware of the time they have to wait. ”

I have friends adopting from China with a log in date of April 2007 and their agency is quoting them 18 months and they are still hoping to travel in ‘08. I feel like this is irresponsible of the agency and makes me wonder if all the people who logged in right before the May 1 deadline *do* know what they’re in for. Btw, I did refer them to your site but I have no idea if they are going to check it out. Personally, I like researching predictions and rumors and then coming to my own conclusion. I think you are right on about this post and that is what I’ve been guessing for some time.

]]> By: catherinethegreat http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34501 catherinethegreat Thu, 03 May 2007 15:47:55 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34501 Waitingintexas...I actually hope they will finish November 2005 in September., but its possible it could take until October with a small part of November (latter few days) /December in October .which would mean a wait of 21-22 months...although November started in this batch..not sure we should really count this month in the count for total months... I think we will have a better idea next month (I hate saying this because I have been saying this to myself for months; for awhile it works and then you get a month like last month that really ruins that line of logic). If things go like last year at this time...its even possible to finish in August (ie it takes 3 more months to be done with November), but since October was slated to be smaller than November (and October took 4 months to finish), I think it is more likely we will not finish November until Sept or October...I am hopeful for September...but prepared for October...and I do not want to say this is the 'worst case scenario since none of us really know that anymore...) Waitingintexas…I actually hope they will finish November 2005 in September., but its possible it could take until October with a small part of November (latter few days) /December in October .which would mean a wait of 21-22 months…although November started in this batch..not sure we should really count this month in the count for total months… I think we will have a better idea next month (I hate saying this because I have been saying this to myself for months; for awhile it works and then you get a month like last month that really ruins that line of logic).
If things go like last year at this time…its even possible to finish in August (ie it takes 3 more months to be done with November), but since October was slated to be smaller than November (and October took 4 months to finish), I think it is more likely we will not finish November until Sept or October…I am hopeful for September…but prepared for October…and I do not want to say this is the ‘worst case scenario since none of us really know that anymore…)

]]> By: waiting in Texas http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34500 waiting in Texas Thu, 03 May 2007 15:30:21 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34500 RQ, What are your thoughts on the time it will take to get to a 24 month wait? Hopefully you can make sense of my previous post to threebluesteps and everyone else. I found this in a search of this site looking for wording from CCAA about the 24 months and when: "An agency apparently decided to write to the CCAA to see if the 24 months thing is accurate or not. The response was: The waiting time relies on the number of children available for adoption, so it’s difficult to predict the waiting time of 2007. I can only say that 24 months is possible but there is no confirmed information about this. If so, it will increase gradually. So far, we don’t have new policies about this. This sounds to me like they do not have a plan to stabilize things. I’m not sure this tells us whether or not a small speed up may happen, but I do believe it means they don’t expect to go back to whole months. This entry was posted on Thursday, October 12th, 2006 at 7:20 am and is filed under Rumors - wait related. You can follow any responses to " As you can see it if from last October. I guess I am really hoping the wait will continue to grow about 1/2 month per month on average and take 10 months again to grow 6 months in wait. OK - last post from me this morning, would love to hear some comments on my thoughts. Thanks LID 3/21/2006 RQ,
What are your thoughts on the time it will take to get to a 24 month wait? Hopefully you can make sense of my previous post to threebluesteps and everyone else. I found this in a search of this site looking for wording from CCAA about the 24 months and when:

“An agency apparently decided to write to the CCAA to see if the 24 months thing is accurate or not. The response was:

The waiting time relies on the number of children available for adoption, so it’s difficult to predict the waiting time of 2007. I can only say that 24 months is possible but there is no confirmed information about this. If so, it will increase gradually. So far, we don’t have new policies about this.
This sounds to me like they do not have a plan to stabilize things.

I’m not sure this tells us whether or not a small speed up may happen, but I do believe it means they don’t expect to go back to whole months.

This entry was posted on Thursday, October 12th, 2006 at 7:20 am and is filed under Rumors - wait related. You can follow any responses to ”

As you can see it if from last October. I guess I am really hoping the wait will continue to grow about 1/2 month per month on average and take 10 months again to grow 6 months in wait.
OK - last post from me this morning, would love to hear some comments on my thoughts.
Thanks
LID 3/21/2006

]]> By: zada http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34499 zada Thu, 03 May 2007 15:21:31 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34499 RQ and others who have posted here- Thanks so much for this thoughtful analysis. It does seem that we are very much on track for 3 years if not more. What baffles me is the absence of info on what to expect from CCAA given how dramatically things have changed these last 18 months. The children would be better off if they were paired up with prospective parents who had entered at the best time for them given the expected wait times. And it seems like CCAA would be bombarded with fewer questions if they simply gave the agencies their best guess of how many children would be matched each month in the near future and how many LIDs there are in each month. It really seems like it would be a win-win-win (for CCAA, the children, and prospective parents). In any case, I'm so happy for everyone who has gotten their referral or soon will. And especially for the children who will be matched with these wonderful families. But with a late 2006 LID we are starting to feel like this is not going to happen for us. We will stick it out though will try to shift our attention to other things in the meantime. Good luck to everyone wherever you are in the process!! RQ and others who have posted here- Thanks so much for this thoughtful analysis. It does seem that we are very much on track for 3 years if not more. What baffles me is the absence of info on what to expect from CCAA given how dramatically things have changed these last 18 months.

The children would be better off if they were paired up with prospective parents who had entered at the best time for them given the expected wait times. And it seems like CCAA would be bombarded with fewer questions if they simply gave the agencies their best guess of how many children would be matched each month in the near future and how many LIDs there are in each month. It really seems like it would be a win-win-win (for CCAA, the children, and prospective parents).

In any case, I’m so happy for everyone who has gotten their referral or soon will. And especially for the children who will be matched with these wonderful families. But with a late 2006 LID we are starting to feel like this is not going to happen for us. We will stick it out though will try to shift our attention to other things in the meantime.

Good luck to everyone wherever you are in the process!!

]]> By: waiting in Texas http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34498 waiting in Texas Thu, 03 May 2007 15:10:38 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34498 catherinethegreat, I think before we would reach 22 months for Nov lid we would have to not finish Nov until Oct this year- that would mean Nov referred in 5 months ( June, July, Aug, Sept, and Oct) and wouldn't even count this first day this month. Do you feel pretty convinced that it will take 5+ months to finish Nov? I am hoping (can't help myself) we will do better than that. catherinethegreat,
I think before we would reach 22 months for Nov lid we would have to not finish Nov until Oct this year- that would mean Nov referred in 5 months ( June, July, Aug, Sept, and Oct) and wouldn’t even count this first day this month. Do you feel pretty convinced that it will take 5+ months to finish Nov? I am hoping (can’t help myself) we will do better than that.

]]> By: waiting in Texas http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34497 waiting in Texas Thu, 03 May 2007 15:04:08 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/02/the-difference-in-2001-and-2007/#comment-34497 threebluesteps, thanks for the re-cap- maybe you can help me with my thought here- we reached a 12 month wait 6/26/06 and now with this last batch have reached an 18 month wait. (I confirmed my memory with the stats RQ keeps for us) So it took 10 referral batches to get from the 12 month to the 18 month timeline. Also if you look at the stats RQ keeps for us and you track how many months it takes to get through a month you will see the longest so far has been three months. That includes May 06, June 06 and now Oct 06. How am I getting these numbers? I simply assign that months referrals to whatever month the cut off day is in. This batch we just had is the first batch assigned to November since the last day of the batch is in the Nov calendar month. So my question is how long with it really take to get to 24 months? If they finish the majority of November in the next two batches and the batch after that may have a few days of Nov but will have some early days of Dec then we can call November 3 months as well. I hope this isn't confusing, but if you look at the chart of referrals and start with the Oct 05 batch when they slow down began you can assign two months to get through all but the three listed above that took three months. To me this is encouraging because if we got through May and June in 6 hopefully we will get through Oct / Nov in 6 batches. This would trend the same even if it is slower and be close to finishing Dec between Sept and Nov this year. And that would still be a slow down over last year. I know this is long and will just add that by rounding the months it works the same as using the fractions. What do you think? Maybe it won't take 10 months to get from 18 to 24 month wait but maybe it will. threebluesteps,
thanks for the re-cap- maybe you can help me with my thought here- we reached a 12 month wait 6/26/06 and now with this last batch have reached an 18 month wait. (I confirmed my memory with the stats RQ keeps for us) So it took 10 referral batches to get from the 12 month to the 18 month timeline. Also if you look at the stats RQ keeps for us and you track how many months it takes to get through a month you will see the longest so far has been three months. That includes May 06, June 06 and now Oct 06. How am I getting these numbers? I simply assign that months referrals to whatever month the cut off day is in. This batch we just had is the first batch assigned to November since the last day of the batch is in the Nov calendar month.

So my question is how long with it really take to get to 24 months? If they finish the majority of November in the next two batches and the batch after that may have a few days of Nov but will have some early days of Dec then we can call November 3 months as well. I hope this isn’t confusing, but if you look at the chart of referrals and start with the Oct 05 batch when they slow down began you can assign two months to get through all but the three listed above that took three months. To me this is encouraging because if we got through May and June in 6 hopefully we will get through Oct / Nov in 6 batches. This would trend the same even if it is slower and be close to finishing Dec between Sept and Nov this year. And that would still be a slow down over last year. I know this is long and will just add that by rounding the months it works the same as using the fractions. What do you think? Maybe it won’t take 10 months to get from 18 to 24 month wait but maybe it will.

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