Attrition - The Results
For those who just received a referral the attrition rate was 32%. I have a lot of data for this one since a lot of people knew how many people were in their LID group and how many people received a referral.
For those LID from November 2005 up to the end of April 2006 the attrition rate is 20%. I have a decent sized set of numbers for this one.
For those LID in the rest of 2006 the attrition rate is 10%. I don’t have a big set of numbers for this one.
As was discussed, many agencies are no longer allowing families to switch to the SN program once they are in the NSN program. Unless the CCAA comes out with a ruling that this is specifically allowed, we may not see 30% attrition rates for those LID in the past 6 or so months. But, with the really long wait it’s possible other things will knock them out or that they will go elsewhere (with an agency who does not allow that) and it will still be that high. Not that I’m hoping for that, just that I think it is a sad probability.
However, if the rumored yearly quota is true then people who switch to SN aren’t shortening the NSN line, they are just jumping ahead in the China IA line. If the CCAA is only going to allow a certain number to be adopted per year through the IA program then that includes both SN and NSN babies.
My figure of “probably close to three years for those LID April/May of 2007″ needs for there to be a good bit of attrition and it needs for the middle of 2006 to go quickly before slowing back down.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:04 pm
Well that answered my question about the quota on the previous blog entry.
LID May 10, 2006
May 4th, 2007 at 12:07 pm
Wow…I had NO IDEA that the quota applied to both SN and NSN. That is not good news…most especially for the babies…and for us.
We know that there have to be more SN babies than there are SN babies adopted out of the system.
Sad on many levels.
Thanks once again, RQ for this significant info.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:08 pm
I know of 3 families that have had their dossiers returned at their request. One has already adopted from Ethiopia,
and the other 2 are in PGN for Guatemala. Their agencies already had other programs.
We adopted our sn’s son before the SN’s slowdown.
Our agency predicted a certain time span and they were
100% accurate for their special needs program from LID -TA
Just after we bought our ds home, things slowed down considerably. The agency had representatives in China and they already knew about the changes in regulations before they became fact. They said the special needs program will be taking longer, and it is. The length of time waiting for TA is much much longer than when we received ours. I receive regular emails from our DS’s orphanage, he was on the 4th floor and it was run by
a British Organization. They are also alot stricter on family requirements for SN’s, and alot of people are aged out or
in most cases do not meet the financial specifications.
Then again, what is strange, I have had 3 separate families telld me that they were in the NSN’s program and their children, since being home, have been diagnosed with
a special need, nothing serious, but one should of been picked up with bloodwork according to her Pediatrican.
It only took
May 4th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
Hi RQ What do these attrition rates do to the number for backlogged dossiers. These attrition rates–32 for current referrals do to the estimate of what the back log is–is it possible that the backlog was reduced by 35 percent for this period of time? Thanks for all the analysis.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:25 pm
Thanks so much for this analysis. I just found out about the site this week and it has been extremely helpful. We are expecting a LID in the next couple of weeks. While I’m not thrilled (to say the least) at the thought of a 3 year (or more) wait, I’m glad to at least be able to set my expectations realistically. It would have been nice to know this from our agency (they’re still communicating a 18-20 month wait), but even if we’d known in January when we started this journey, we still would have done it. I know someday we’ll look back on the three year wait and it won’t matter one bit, but right now it does seem like a long time until we see our daughter’s face!
LID 05-??-07
May 4th, 2007 at 12:33 pm
RQ, Thanks for posting this. When you said,
QUOTE: “My figure of “probably close to three years for those LID April/May of 2007″ needs for there to be a good bit of attrition and it needs for the middle of 2006 to go quickly before slowing back down.” ENDQUOTE
Do you mean that the wait for those of us might even reach four years if these things do not happen?
Thanks!
May 4th, 2007 at 12:47 pm
This is really sad news. Even with all the attrition, this appears to be a systematic well thought out slow down. RQ, do you know or venture to guess what level the attrition rate needs to rise to before we see things “speed up”? With an early August 2006 LID I really feel like I was left out to dry!
May 4th, 2007 at 1:09 pm
What is the “yearly quota” currently?
May 4th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
We’re LID 9/18/06 and hoping (although that’s not really the word for it) to be part of the attrition as we are in the process of switching over to Vietnam and will pull our dossier as soon as we know we have a child elsewhere. I can tell from both the August and Sept. 2006 yahoo groups that there are quite a few of us pulling out. Over in the Vietnam forums we are one of many families currently re-doing our paperwork and in the past two months I’ve really started to see more and more postings from cross-over families. Our agency has told us to file our paperwork quickly as they currently have a large number of “on the fence” China families. We were on the fence until last months 2 day referral batch. I can only guess that this second tiny batch will push a few more families over.
May 4th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
You know, in some ways this data surprises me, in some ways not so much. On the one hand, it makes sense that the attrition rate is lower for those LIDs that are farther away. The longer the time from LID to referral, the more likely something else will happen to cause a withdrawal or switch. In other words, it’s likely that as time goes on, that rate will go up for the end of 2006 LIDs. However, I would think that if you’ve waited a long time already, you’d be so far in to the wait that it would be harder to change course.
I’m curious how these numbers compare to attrition before the slowdown. I would imagine there has always been a small degree of attrition.
May 4th, 2007 at 2:10 pm
Actually, when adopting our dd quite a few families changed programs. This was with another country, and we stuck it out because our dd was a healthy 12 month old when we started the process and we were already committed to her. Those that were waiting for referrals changed programs to Cambodia (it was opened then), and
China (which was at that time a 6-7 month referral time).
Our dd came home at 2 years and 3 months, quite a while
after our dossier was submitted in country.
I belong to a couple of international adoption forums and I was surprised at how many families switched programs.
I am not sure if all agencies allow this just because of a slow down, I know it is different when it is a country close down like Cambodia and Romania. One lady we know switched from China to Vietnam last year, and she already has brought home a beautiful, beautiful baby girl. It happened very quickly. I am wondering if this is still the
case for Vietnam? I am guessing when she switched, her agency just received the go ahead to adopt from Vietnam again (they already had a program in place for several years). Interesting subject. I was already committed to our China Prince, and would not of switched programs, however, if I was waiting for a referral I would of.
May 4th, 2007 at 5:22 pm
Sorry, I’ve looked through the last couple of blogs and don’t see the quota - how many adoptions are they saying they’ll be doing a year?
thanks!
May 4th, 2007 at 5:46 pm
Just curious…what percentage would you define as “a good bit of attrition”?
May 4th, 2007 at 5:52 pm
JenT04 - they do not give numbers out.
May 4th, 2007 at 6:52 pm
Thanks for this info RQ! I’ve been grappling lately with the idea that 3 years might be a ‘good case’ scenario with my late March ‘07 LID. With the back log and current snail’s pace, something spectacular would have to happen to contain the wait to 3 years. Thinking of over 3 years and/or an eventual closing is a scary thought! So much can change in 3 years and changes in China including industrialization and increased ultrasounds/abortions could really impact this situation. It’s hard to swallow the belief that there are so many babies there that need homes (paper-ready or not) and so many hopeful and ready waiting families around the world. Thanks for this great community!
May 5th, 2007 at 5:28 pm
We have a China login of December 2006 & we’re now starting the process for Vietnam as well. Our agency says that we can do both as long as there’s a 9 month difference between the two children in age & placement. Vietnam is supposedly much quicker (6 months) but you can’t specify gender & are more likely to get a boy. Best case scenario we go to Vietnam & get a baby boy this winter & then go to China & get a baby girl next winter. If things go badly with China (and I’ve got to say, the increasing wait time & new regs are making me anxious) then at least we’ll have one child & we’ll still have a chance to adopt a second time from Vietnam (we’d originally hoped to adopt twice from China but the new age limits make that impossible).