Further Analysis
Several people have asked me to do another analysis going out a few months. With a reminder that this is only here to give you a ballpark of what might happen and it does not include any worst case scenario, that would give us:
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The good case scenario listed is based on referrals since the early January batch, not the larger batches of last year. The bad case is based on this month, not last month.
Remember, these are based on past performance and there is nothing to say the CCAA won’t do more or less than they have been doing.
May 4th, 2007 at 7:02 pm
Yep … just as I figured … Nov. 9th, one day before our LID.
That will certainly put me … over the edge!!! Oh well, at least I’m prepared for it AND getting close!!!!
May 4th, 2007 at 7:13 pm
This is close to what I have been thinking. At least we are under the standard 6 months extended wait. I am anticipating (hoping ) another 4 months with a 12/5/05 LID. It’s ironic how one’s perspective changes over TIME! Now, I’ll be happy to have our DD before the end of 2005.
May 4th, 2007 at 7:27 pm
Grover — I’m with you! Our LID is 12/5/05 as well and using all three parts of the chart we would have our referral and be home by the end of 2007! That sounds DEVINE to me! Now, let’s hope there are no more teeny tiny little batches!
May 4th, 2007 at 7:29 pm
overtheedge…Hang in there.. I still think November 10th is possible..but for sure you will be ‘on the edge’…Here’s hoping for November 10th next month…
Thanks RQ..
May 4th, 2007 at 9:10 pm
overtheedge,
I’m with you as a fellow 11/10 LID; I think we might make it!
Only time will tell, but if we don’t make June (and I’m really reaching to find the positive here) we’ll be NEXT for CERTAIN!!! And I will be sure to note it in all of my forum signatures d@mn it!!!!!!
May 4th, 2007 at 10:31 pm
Thanks for this RQ~
I like the good case scenario…that is one I could live with….the bad case scenario …and 4 months to get through November–me no like that one!
May 5th, 2007 at 6:54 am
I am LID Feb 16 06′ So for 15 months, my wait has been take or give a little, about 10 months. Yesterday my neighbor was asking me and looked at me like I was crazy when I said the timeframe again. Then she preceded to tell me that I could have her children if I wanted them.
I was thinking the same as RQ in terms of getting through November.
Do we know the numbers for November vs. Dec/Jan/Feb? Is November even higher than October?
May 5th, 2007 at 7:37 am
Thanks RQ for this new analysis!
I’ve been telling people September or October for referral so this fits right in line. I was out last night with some friends and my mantra was “Just as long as I have her home by Christmas, I’ll be thrilled.” Funny how your perspective changes over time….
LID 11/30/05
May 5th, 2007 at 7:37 am
“The bad case is based on this month, not last month.” Our agency expressed sincere disappointment over the last two months of referrals. That being said they “think” that this happened because the dates in the last two referral months had a “tremendous” amount of LID’s. They don’t “feel” this will be the norm moving forward. Of course at this point we all need to take all info with a grain of salt. Let’s hope we don’t have to use the “worst” case scenerio column again!!!!!
May 5th, 2007 at 7:52 am
Thanks RQ for this analysis.
This fits right in line with my own thoughts of September or October for referral. My latest mantra is “I’ll be thrilled to have her home by Christmas.” Funny how your perspective changes over time.
LID 11/30/05
May 5th, 2007 at 8:07 am
grover and peanutbutter pie, today is our 17th month wait! As a fellow 12/05/05er I have been hoping for months now that we have our babies by the end of the year. So lets hope we don’t go into a “bad bad case” scenario.
May 5th, 2007 at 9:06 am
Hello, this is my first time commenting and I just want to say thanks to RQ for this site….it is the only reason that I am staying sane. We are kept pretty much in the dark with our agency….we have never received any news or update since our LID 12-20-05…and on their site it says please don’t call us, we do not have any news. Because of RQ, at least I know what is happening out there.
I am praying to have our baby with us for Christmas (I know, could be wishful thinking.) For those who receive their referral close to Christmas (say nov-07) What are the chances of traveling during the Christmas holiday?
May 5th, 2007 at 12:07 pm
I am just thrilled that our 12-20 LID is finally showing up on ‘near term’ referral charts! That’s almost enough to make me feel like the bad case of 7 months until our referral is ‘soon’. I used to think it would be positively depressing to not have our daughter home by Christmas, but I think I can handle at least knowing who she is by Christmas, which ‘should’ happen even in the bad case scenario. And even if we reach mid-case, we should be home by Christmas. By the way, this Christmas will be the 4th Christmas since we started this process.
Anyway, thanks RQ, I think I’m officially out of the funk that the 2-day batch triggered.
LJ
12-20-05
May 5th, 2007 at 12:13 pm
Thank you RQ for the update.
I really hope that I will have my little girl or boy home for x-mas, but with a LID of Dec 8-2005 this might be impossible according to the bad case scenario. So let’s hope and pray for a middle or good case. Please Please Please :-)
Regards
Beate
May 5th, 2007 at 12:34 pm
Oh how I pray that Nov. 10th is in. We have some great friends with an 11/10 LID, and we so want to travel with them. We are 11/04, so I can hardly believe that “WE’RE NEXT!!!!!” I cannot wait for the end of the month. Let the countdown begin. AAAHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!
May 5th, 2007 at 12:42 pm
With a lid of 9 nov 05, I can live with the mid case :-)
If it’s the bad case which shows up, at least I can say we’re next :-)
Iseirinne
Lid 9 nov 2005
May 5th, 2007 at 1:45 pm
Can we at least see 2006 by the end of this year? Please?
We April 06 are wondering if we are the group with the longest wait ever….don’t things pick up after us??? Go figure, I go in line……I did it……went to the store today and of course, price check in my line!! Can they at least let us out of the review room this year??????????
May 5th, 2007 at 3:08 pm
grover and peanutbutterpie,
I am a 12/5/05 er as well and have thought August for quite a while now too. Here is to hoping!!!!!
Adomom
May 5th, 2007 at 3:11 pm
adoptingliberty,
I think we are in the same travel group. I know we have the same agency, I just checked you site!
Adomom
May 5th, 2007 at 6:44 pm
We have a 11/22/05 LID. Last night I had a dream that referrals in early July cut off at 11/21, but I was not sad as I was (and am) already expecting August (or Sept – but I just really think it will be August-ish for a time frame for our referral) and I was also not sad in my dream as I knew that with the 11/21 cut-off that we would be next. So yes, this mid-case scenario fits right in line with my thoughts.
May 5th, 2007 at 6:45 pm
I am hoping and praying for at least the mid-case, cuz then we’d be in this year, with an LID of Jan 6/06. I can live with that idea, but not getting our referral til 2008 would really hurt. Our 16 mth anniv of LID is tomorrow. yippee.
May 5th, 2007 at 8:35 pm
This is my first time writing in. My husband and I found out our LID-16.04.07- a few days ago. We were so happy. We are going to be parents. I then got on the website and my happiness faded. Three years to wait! Why were we not told that. Our agency told us not much longer than 12 months. I am 36 years old. I want a child by next year. We should have been given a choice to change countries. We can not put our lives on hold for 3 years. This is going to be an awful long time for us…
May 6th, 2007 at 9:48 am
Hey Gwen5pups–welcome to the world of our agencies. I was in the same thinking as you were until I too found this site. But it’s good to see month after month that the information RQ provides is pretty much on the mark. Lots of us have stepped back and realized that there’s things we can do during the wait that might have been put off, etc…..take trips, change jobs, remodel. I know, small comfort but it helps
May 6th, 2007 at 10:40 am
Hi gwen5pups–welcome to the world of the agencies doublespeak. What they all are doing is telling people the amount of time those currently waiting are enduring. Without clarification it’s very easy to think that that applies to our new applications. But with the “current” wait being about 18 months, your year predication wasn’t that good. When I was lid in 6/06 I was told a year, now it’s still a year and maybe more. Anyway, it’s good you have found this site. RQ’s analysis is pretty much on the mark and some people are using their “extra” time to do things they thought they would have to put off. I know, small comfort…..
May 7th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
With my LID of 2/24/06, and having started our paperchase 3/25/05 – we could get a referral anytime between now and when hell freezes over.
When this is all said and done, I am seriously considering writing a book, with the title of the book being the number of days it took to complete Maddie’s adoption.
Gwen5Pups – we wanted a child by LAST year… Our agency (large midwestern multi-country agency) has a picnic every summer in Indianapolis for all of their families; we’ve gone to 2 childless – we’re not going this year, and we wont go back until we have OUR little munchkin, hopefully before the 08 Beijing Olympics. You cant put your life on hold for three years? At least you know it can be a 3-year wait, had I had known the wait time would be/could be this long (I think the referrals were around 10 months when we LID, but I could be wrong), there is NO WAY I wouldve agreed with a PRC adoption. However, here we sit, almost 7grand into it, with nothing to show for it.
Yeah, I do sound a little ticked, as we are in the process to prove once again that we arent criiminals to the USCIS, with a thousand-dollar bill for that…
May 8th, 2007 at 3:50 pm
awaitingMaddie
I hear you on that………….referrals were just starting at 10 months weren’t they? We are April 06 and we were trying to rush because we saw the wait creeping up, but the agency kept saying “Oh no hurry.” You will be in China Feb 07…….well no we weren’t!!