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When will the next batch arrive?

Last year referrals arrived on 4/27 and 5/26 with a difference of 29 days, so the May holiday didn’t slow things down. In 2005 referrals arrived on 4/18 and 5/25 with a difference of 37 days, so there was a bit of a slow down for the May holiday that year.

The last 12 batches have had 29, 31, 35, 24, 32, 38, 28, 34, 29, 32, 32, and 25 days between first arrivals of referrals. The average is 31 days, and the number that shows up the most is 32 days. The shortest time period is 24 days and the longest is 38 days. I do not think we will see the shortest time period.

If we use 31 days that gives us Friday June 1, and 32 days takes us to a Saturday so if we jump to Monday we get Monday June 4th.

If we look at 24 days (which I don’t think will happen) we arrive at Friday May 25th, and if we look at the longest and use 38 days we arrive at Friday June 8th.

With that in mind I think we will see referrals between Tuesday May 29th and Friday June 8th with the most likely day being closer to Monday June 4th.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, May 9th, 2007 at 8:56 am and is filed under Analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.


 
 
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19 Responses to “When will the next batch arrive?”

  1. catherinethegreat Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 9:15 am

    Thanks RQ; I agree completely. Mon June 4th or Tuesday June 5th makes the most sense to me (I really, really, really hope it is the 4th).

  2. Aunt2Laura Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 9:16 am

    I don’t know if this goes along with this, but can you give an estimate on TA’s for this last batch of referrals? Thanks RQ, you’re the best!

  3. jj2china Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 10:03 am

    Can I ask if there is a day of the week that is most common for referrals to arrive? I feel like they often get mailed at the end of the week and arrive at the beginning of the next. But I have no data to support this just a feeling.

    Thanks, RQ
    B
    4/19/06

  4. RumorQueen Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 10:46 am

    jj2china:
    http://chinaadopttalk.com/2006/09/20/days-of-the-week/

    Also, we should note that if they are mailed Thursday or Friday they arrive Monday. If they are mailed Monday they arrive Wednesday. The only way for them to arrive on Tuesday is when they get mailed over the weekend, which doesn’t happen very often.

  5. woopig Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 10:57 am

    WoooooHoooooo! Let the count down begin! I think I’m in the next batch, and for the first time, I really am excited for my chances at seeing my daughter’s picture!

  6. waiting2bmommy Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 10:58 am

    Right around the 4th is what I have been thinking too. And the way the months fly by, it will be here before we know it!!!

  7. grover Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 11:04 am

    I think the summer months will go by relatively quickly. It’s already May 9th! But in the words of my DD#1 “But I want it now!” Yeah right.

  8. dady2xinand? Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 12:22 pm

    Thanks RQ, I hope it’s the 4th.Our LID 2-14-06 is far away but every little bit helps.

  9. iseirinne.adopt Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 12:35 pm

    Today it’s our 18th months LID anniversary… With the 2 days in april, we decided to take some holidays in June from the 1st until the 10th… Guess what… I think that we have to cancel them… Each time we decided something, CCAA obliged us to change our plans… Hope this time, it will be for our attribution, even if I don’t think we will be in.

    Iseirinne
    Lid 9 nov 2005

  10. monami7 Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 12:47 pm

    Iseirinne,
    We are LID Nov. 9, 2005 too. 18 months today! I hwever do think we are next. I know why get my hopes up. However I believe that in our life it seems that all the signs are finally there that we are going to see our baby in 3 weeks.

  11. 3kids2dogs1hubnME Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 1:18 pm

    Another 11-09er here. I also think we’ll be next. Can this month be over quick enough? At least iseirinne.adopt, this time when you cancel your vacation in June, HOPEFULLY it will be for a GREAT reason.

  12. tjorven Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 3:08 pm

    We are LID Nov 9 too. I cross my fingers and hope that at this time next month our long wait is over.

  13. ckeoghmac Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 3:40 pm

    Hi RQ,

    Thanks for all! We just renewed our expired home study yesterday for 10/28/05 LID and received our referral on May 1st. Our acceptance was mailed out today (just received translation yesterday and doctor reviewed medical today).

    Is there any particular pattern to Travel Approvals? Sorry if you’ve covered this…I checked that area but didn’t notice anything on it. Thanks.

  14. Waiting4mybaby Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 4:03 pm

    Woohoo! The numbers don’t support it, but it would be a nice Independence Day gift if the next referrals after that come on July 3. I want to be liberated from this wait!!!!!

    LID 11/17/05

  15. theups Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 4:24 pm

    Gosh, there are quite a few 11/9ers here, huh? One of my friends is also 11/9 and I’m SOOOOO on pins and needles for her right now!! I am REALLY hoping that CCAA matches through then AT LEAST!!! And I’m hoping, too, that referrals comes as early as possible!

    His,
    Mrs. U
    LID 9-12-05
    referral 1-4-07
    “Gotcha Day” 2-25-07 for Elizabeth
    http://www.makingahouseahome.blogspot.com

  16. patienceisavirtue Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 7:13 pm

    Ohmygosh November is huge! I hope for ALL of you Nov LIDers that you hear the news you’ve been waiting for VERY SOON!!!

  17. Greedywolf Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 7:40 pm

    Thanks for all the valuable inforamtion. I am interested in the timeframe for expedited adoption for Chinese descent. When looking at “To China and Back” blog it was mentioned that a couple was matched with a LID of 5-16-06. Our expedited Chinese descent adoption is 8-31-06. Any help would be appreciated.

    Thanks

  18. waiting4allie Says:
    May 9th, 2007 at 9:21 pm

    I just want to thank everyone. I’ve only commented once(and messed that up and sent two messages-not very computer literate). But for months now I’ve spent so much time here. I’ve loved sharing in everyone’s stories. It’s been such a support. And it’s been especially great getting to hear all the wonderful stories and see all the beautiful babies finally coming home! I can’t stop crying lately. We are next with LID Nov.3,2005. And I really can’t believe we are going to see our daughter soon. It’s been a lifetime of dreaming. I just wanted to say that all though the wait is difficult, this is such an awesome journey that we are all so privileged to be taking part in. The end result is so awesome despite the difficulties along the way. I feel so blessed to be an adoptive parent! Thank you RQ for all your work and advice, it is so appreciated!

  19. mezzok Says:
    May 11th, 2007 at 11:44 am

    Hi there:

    I am new to the RQ site. However, whenever I go to the CCAA site I only see info from 2005 and 2006 – no updates even with respect to the new guidelines. Where are you folks looking to get this info? Am I looking at an old, expired site?

    Thanks for your help!
    kz