A passel of rumors
In order to put this first rumor in perspective, here is a reminder of my predictions for the next batch:
Really Bad Case Scenario: too depressing to type
Bad Case Scenario: November 8th
Mid Case Scenario: November 9th
Good Case Scenario: November 13th
Best Case Scenario that is not very likely: November 16th
(If that’s confusing you probably missed this post and this post.)
 |
The first rumor coming in would put the cut off in the vicinity of the 16th to the 21st. I have no idea where the source got the info. If you go to the rumor ratings page you’ll see that an R1 is “A rumor that is very, very, very, suspect. I’m reporting it because it’s out there, but I’m giving it zero weight.” Seriously, this is a very early rumor and you should not get your hopes up without some serious padding to cushion the very possible fall. |
 |
Another rumor says that some SN TA’s are in the air!!!! |
 |
I have one rumor I can semi-substantiate, and that is that some CCAA Officials will be making at least one visit in the near future. I don’t know if we’ll hear any information when this happens, or whether any information given will be accurate. Last summer during their tour the CCAA Director told a waiting father that with a December 2005 LID he’d get his referral in December. I guess he just neglected to say which December. |
| And now I have two really bad rumors that are starting to make the rounds. Both rumors are that the CCAA is considering something, not that they are going to do it. I hope they never come to pass, but I really need to get them out there so families can make plans with them in the backs of their minds just in case they turn out to be true. Both are very low on the rumor ratings scale so they are not cause for panic, but they are rumors we need to keep an eye on. |
|
 |
The first is that the CCAA is considering that they may stop allowing people to go on hold. When it is time for your referral you get a referral, if you aren’t in a position to accept the referral then, well, too bad. One of the places this is coming from says there will be a warning before it is implemented so those on hold still get a referral. The other version of this rumor says they may decide to do this without any warning at all and those already on hold when they make the announcement may not get a referral. This one gets an R2 because it is coming from more than one place and the wording is different enough to lead me to believe there are two original sources. |
|
And the other rumor is that the CCAA may soon stop accepting applications, and this may last for up to three years. The rumor basically says they are considering it, not that they are for sure going to stop. The rumor does not say that they are going to stop giving out referrals, just that they are going to stop accepting dossiers for possibly as long as three years. This one is starting to make the rounds and it has come to me multiple times but I get the feeling it may be coming from one single source and is just spreading like wildfire, so it only gets an R1 at this point. |
And finally, not really a rumor, just a note that more and more agencies are now telling the late 2006 families and all of the 2007 families that their wait will probably be somewhere close to three years.
May 11th, 2007 at 9:56 pm
Ugh! I hope NONE of the bad rumors come to pass.
May 11th, 2007 at 9:56 pm
“I have one rumor I can semi-substantiate, and that is that some CCAA Officials will be making at least one visit in the near future”
One visit to where?
What is considered late 2006?
May 11th, 2007 at 10:02 pm
As horrid as this is I don’t think it would be the worst thing if CCAA halted or slowed accepting dossiers down for a while. At that point agencies will be forced to level with what is happening with the wait. Some people will have the chance to find another route.
May 11th, 2007 at 10:05 pm
If the CCAA halts or slows accepting dossiers for a while, will the China-only agencies have enough resources to stay in business? After all, the new clients help pay their current bills (salaries, rent, etc.). Without this continuing source of income, can they stay in business long enough to take care of those of us who are enduring the long wait?
May 11th, 2007 at 10:53 pm
I really think that a number of China only agencies will have to start doing other countries or possibly go out of business…
As for the bad rumors..all I can say is YUCK.
What really scares me about them possibly halting new applications is that the next step after that is to possibly CLOSE the program for a number of years.
I hate to say it but it is within the realm of possibility. Certainly one none of us likes to consider but a possibility-however remote-nonetheless.
Sigh.
May 11th, 2007 at 10:59 pm
Not one of these rumors surprises me in the least. I guess the I had never heard of the “hold” option until I read that someone just got their referral after being on hold. Strange concept, you comitt or you don’t. I think it is way to early for referral rumors.
Congrats to those getting their TA’s.
LID 11/9/05
May 11th, 2007 at 11:14 pm
I wonder if the CCAA would stop accepting applications if it would only be for NSN. I think they have plenty of NSN dossiers in the queue, but I wonder what would happen to the SN program in that case??
May 11th, 2007 at 11:27 pm
I have nothing to substantiate this except a conversation with our agency guide in Changsha, Hunan, when we adopted our first daughter in February 2002. At that time, she told us not to wait too long if we wanted to adopt again, because China was either going to halt or hold adoptions at some point around the Beijing Olympics. Everyone has heard those rumors lately, but I find it interesting that after all this time, something that was said so long ago might end up being a remarkable coincidence.
So at the time we were doing post-placement for #1, we started paperchasing for #2. We were back in China 20 months later, and our girls are 19 months apart in age :)
May 11th, 2007 at 11:43 pm
Ick! Well, I think they are going to have to stop accepting dossiers at some point otherwise things would never get caught up. I sure hope that they don’t “halt” things for very long around the Olympics. I know they might for a couple months, but I hope no more than that. Didn’t I also hear somewhere that they were NOT going to stop around the Olympics, or was that a dream?
Ziggy
LID June 6
May 11th, 2007 at 11:44 pm
Well, they’ve got to do something.
May 12th, 2007 at 12:42 am
I can’t imagine it will take them until December to get to December of 2005. I am hoping for August and to wait for December will require many more bottles of wine! Please don’t be true!
Adomom
LID 12/5/05
May 12th, 2007 at 1:56 am
sarahjane,
Regarding “holds”, I don’t think it’s usually a matter of being “committed” or not. I think it usually happens because of an emergency or family situation that arises the same time you might have to be in China. For ex, I remember reading of a women whose daughter was hospitalized and she went on hold for a month or two until her daughter was recovered from the illness or car accident or whatever it was. That way, the new baby wasn’t brought into the chaos of a family emergency.
With wait times of 3+ years, I could see the need for “holds” happening more. I just pray we’re all healthy and stay safe the month we’re expecting that referral!
May 12th, 2007 at 2:05 am
I was wondering if you could offer me any kind of projected time frame for receiving our LOA from CCAA. We had an LID of 9/20/06 but then sent an LOI on 4/10/07 for our daughter off our agencies waiting child list. Thanks for any help you can offer.
May 12th, 2007 at 2:24 am
RQ~ As always, thanks for the rundown of what’s out there.
I don’t find any of these rumors surprising, especially the possibility they may stop accepting dossiers for a time. I actually think it would be the prudent thing for them to do. Truthfully, not that I want them to, but they probably should have implemented a quota or stopped accepting a while ago. This back log is unbelievable and will probably lead to all sorts of paperwork problems a few years from now. I do not believe that if CCAA stopped taking dossiersit would necessarily be or would lead to a shut down of the program. CCAA has stated to many that they are committed to the IA program. That’s one of the reasons they’ve brought new countries in.
It would be “out of character” for CCAA to change their policies for “on hold” families with no warning. I don’t think this will happen but the warning could be a quick one.
I expect december referrals to begin around october or so with dec 05 finishing up on or around dec 07. Probably start the new year 2006, right about the beginning of 2008. Jeez, this is painful.
No inside info here, just my opinion after a couple of years riding the coaster. Time will tell…
May 12th, 2007 at 6:47 am
If true, why have May 1 restrictions then turn around and decide to stop accepting dossiers? They should have known that would create a big rush to get a dossier in prior to that date. I hate to say this (much like an earlier poster) but the back up has been apparent for quite some time and this idea/rumor should have been done sooner.
Ooooh, here’s a concept how about revising the quota and making more paper-ready kids until the catch up to a more respectable wait then return to said quota or stop? Now that’s just crazy talk! ;-)
May 12th, 2007 at 6:59 am
With the 3 year+ wait for those LID *now*, the CCAA could stop dossier acceptance for 2 years, then re-start, without any interruption of referrals. What would be different is that the wait time for parents applying after a stoppage would be a reasonable 8-12 months, their information and medicals and marital situation and health and paperwork generally current.
The hard part, should a stoppage occur, would be that nobody could know if or when China would resume its IA program. So families ready for IA would need, really, to pursue other options during that period.
sarahjane: people don’t put adoptions on hold due to lack of committment–it’s done when a serious unexpected emergency arises, or a situation happenbs that would make adopting right then either impossible or irresponsible. Those who put adoptions on hold and return to them have often walked through fire to do so, and are every bit as committed as you or I.
May 12th, 2007 at 8:32 am
My neighbor adopted from China in 2001. Currently, she is working at a local adoption agency. I saw her in mid April and she told me at that time the CCAA had matched 800 families (referring to the referrals to be sent the end of April). I then saw her again a couple of weeks later, just before the holiday the first week of May, and she said the CCAA was already matching families for the next batch to go out in May/June, which is something they had not done since 2001/2002. She said it is usually a month before they start matching again, but, this month it had only been 2 weeks since the last matching. This sounds very encouraging… if it is true.
May 12th, 2007 at 9:04 am
I read a lot of: “I don’t find any of these rumors surprising”… and everybody seems to focus on the not so good stuff. Ok, I know, I’ve been the Optimistic one since the beginning of this journey… but what about this early rumor of a fantastic cutoff? And, that R3 about SN TA? It sure looks encouraging to me. :)
May 12th, 2007 at 9:04 am
Sad but realistic, they just can not keep up the way they have been. The further they make the wait the more they make commitments that they have no way of knowing if they can keep. The CCAA has trouble knowing month to month what is coming from the orphanages so how can they know what will be 3-5 years down the road. They tried quotas before in the hopes that the agencies would send them the families the with the qualifications they have just set in place but the agencies sent first come first serve. Then they were more upfront about the qualifications with no quota and look at the rush that they got for the spring of 2007. They have been hinting at this for awhile and each time they become more clear with their expectations, so I think that this may come to pass. I am so sad because this is our first and I want to start the second ASAP, but sadly we are Nov 05 and by the time we get her, get home, wait they year and then reapply it will be at least a year and a half. I did hear from a little bird that knows things (and emailed RQ) that we might start to see more restrictions or bad news that would lead to a closing of the program at some point in the next several years. I think we have seen the restrictions come to pass and I am just hoping the closing is not in the cards.
May 12th, 2007 at 10:02 am
RQ…Any rumors on TA’s for NSN from last month’s referrals? Please, and Thank you. ;)
May 12th, 2007 at 10:23 am
Ugh. I agree w/ some of the other posters. The CCAA must have seen a huge increase in dossiers starting around2005 or late 2004 when the wait time was down to 6 months. The dossiers started piling up and the time to referral started creeping up every month. We didn’t hear about the rumors of the “new rules” until fall 2006. From several sources, the new rules would cut dossier applications to about 40%. But, that doesn’t do anything about all the dossiers that were logged in before that date. Why didn’t they implement quotas with the agencies? Why didn’t they come up with something to help regulate the submission of dossiers when so many were coming in? Even something temporary…I imagine that they must have been overwhelmed when the numbers of dossiers kept growing…so why did it take so long to come up with the new rules?
May 12th, 2007 at 11:34 am
I say YEAH!! to the agencies that are telling fall 2006 people it could possibly be a 3 year wait. My social worker last month told me an 18 month wait. I looked at her and said you have to be joking. We are LID 10-30-2006. I am fully expecting a 2-3 year wait.
Her response was that China is pulling more orphanages into the IA program and things will start leveling out to start speeding up.
Since I am active on the Internet I fell more educated and at least more prepared for different scenarios. I worry about the adoptive population who take everything from their agencies as 100% truth and are never seeking info on the web. I think those families are in for a world of heartache.
May 12th, 2007 at 11:59 am
I would be very surprised if they stopped taking applications any time soon. They just finished with all the publicity of the new regulations(and a lot of that was negative). Also, the new regulations just went into place and they haven’t had a chance to see what their effects are really going to be. If they stopped taking application this close to the new regulation implementation, I would think that would be a serious loss of face as it would imply their new regulations didn’t accomplish their goal.
Julie
May 12th, 2007 at 12:01 pm
Regarding the R1 rumor that the CCAA may soon stop accepting applications. Even though it’s an R1 rumor is this coming from an “in the know” source or is this just someone speculating?
If this does turn out to be true, do you think they would give warning like they did with the May 1 rule changes or just make a sudden announcement? For those still paperchasing and relying on government offices for paperwork this possibility is scary.
May 12th, 2007 at 2:40 pm
I think it is a good idea to stop accepting. At least until they get half of their dossiers matched. And I don’t know how much this would really hurt people wanting to start the process. If I were starting out now, to adopt from China, there would be no way I would submit my dossier to wait for 3 years. Some people will, but most will not.
May 12th, 2007 at 11:00 pm
I think what scares me the most is that the concept of the wait is now pretty accepted as a 3 year likelyhood. Since todays wait is twice as long as expected. What does that say about the 3 year expectation…will it be significantly longer? Negative thinking is very out of character for me, but I can’t help but wonder about this.
Happy Mother’s Day to all of you Mommy’s and Mommy’s to BE!