The next referral batch
I’ve got a lot of rumors, all of them pointing to a large batch this month, though none of them agree on a specific date.
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I’m giving the “large batch” rumor an R3 at this point. I’m pretty sure we’re seeing it from at least four sources, one of which is a pretty reliable source and one of which I’ve never heard of (but googled to confirm they are legit). Some sources are North American and some are European. |
Based on what the CCAA did last year the very best we’d hope they might do would take us to November 16th or 17th. Some are pointing to those days, some are taking us all the way to the very early 20′s and a few are back around the 14th or 15th.
So, as you can see the rumors are still all over the place – but they are all over the place showing a big batch. That is what the R3 is for, not a specific date, but that things are pointing to a big batch.
We are also told that matching has already begun but that the batch is expected to be on schedule (i.e. not an early batch).
If you want to see what my predictions for this month were you can see them here: http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/01/analysis-3/
- Scenario based on April: November 5th
- Bad (but not worse) Case Scenario: November 8th
- Good Case Scenario (recent history): November 13th
- Good Case Scenario that hasn’t happened for a while: Nov 16th
- Most Likely Scenario: Between Nov 8th and 13th
Again, this is just based on what they did last year and this year. They are capable of getting far past the 16th. Something happened in September of 2005 that literally cut their work in half from the month before to the month after. As I’ve recently explained, my theory is that this made people switch to SN and then we saw things further crumble in March of 2006 as a result of NSN families switching to the SN program. So, while it is possible for them to go farther, my predictions show what the new “norm” is and do not take into account what they are actually capable of doing.
And finally, if the theory was correct that a bottleneck happened because orphanage staff and provincial authorities were off during CNY, then it’s possible that they’ve played catch-up since then and we might see a large batch as a result.
A few warnings here: 1) we have had early rumors before pointing to a big batch only to have it be a small batch, 2) these are still early rumors, and 3) it’s not called the “rumor roller coaster” for nothing. Seriously, I know it’s hard to not get excited with these rumors, but try to guard your emotions as much as you can. We all hope these rumors are correct, I’m just trying to keep everyone semi-grounded in the reality that these are rumors and anything can happen.
May 15th, 2007 at 9:58 am
Wow, happy news… maybe! Pass the dramamine.
May 15th, 2007 at 10:23 am
Thanks RQ! You are the best!
Going up!
Shannon Nov 17 LID
May 15th, 2007 at 10:33 am
Thanks as always for the abundance of information. As much as I would love the rumors to be true, I learned a long time ago to never trust the early rumors. RQ you said it best, “it’s not called a rumor roller coaster for nothing”. I have also been preparing myself for several months that we could just miss the cutoff date when it gets close to our time. Something about November, too many ups and downs of the days people are LID. I will be really happy for those referred in June and know my time is July.
kjk
11.17.05
May 15th, 2007 at 10:40 am
Thanks again RQ.
Well, that is something to be REALLY hopeful for. Mostly for the November group. That is great potential news for them.
As for the rest of us…yes it is good news, but with a 4/06 LID I will be really happy to see a large group this month…but I must keep myself aware that referrals between Late Nov. & April 06 could go back down to a 2 day crawl again.
I guess what I am saying is, “yes I will be so happy for a large group this month”…but I have learned the hard way not to make any longer term predictions from that.
Yesterday my husband said it and I am finally starting to let go and feel that way, “whatever is gonna happen, is gonna happen.”
Dare I say, “Que Sera, Sera”?
May 15th, 2007 at 10:53 am
Ok I will get this ride. With an LID of 11/9/05 I have nothing but hope. Up and down we go.
May 15th, 2007 at 11:15 am
Thanks RQ. With a November 2005 LID its hard not to be hopeful..for now, my head says be careful. Sarahjane…I think you should be hopeful…November 10th to me is a distinct possibility….just my own opinion…
May 15th, 2007 at 11:21 am
I just asked Guru Joe if we would see referrals up to 21 November and his reply: Definitely yes.
Well, Guru Joe knows best, but I have my doubts, between 8-13 Nov is more likely to me
May 15th, 2007 at 11:23 am
Ladies and Gentlemen the ride is about to begin;
Please buckle your seat belts and at all times keep your hands (and heart) inside the ride until we come to a comlete stop!
May 15th, 2007 at 11:45 am
Family2b, I am with you. I think we will see referrals
go up to the 13th of Nov, I wish I could believe that
it would be the early 20′s. I am figuring with the 18th
as a LID. MY referral with come in July sometime and
travel in mid Aug to early Sept. And I would be VERY
HAPPY with that. I just want to be able to say I am
NEXT!!! :-):-)
May 15th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
Interesting, I like the whole idea that they will do a big buch to bring us up to average considering the smaller last two batches.
I don’t like the idea that less than 10 days is the “new normal”.
Thanks RQ
B 4/19/06
May 15th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
It’s not that less than ten days is the “new normal”, because November is packed a lot heavier than many other months. We are looking at number of referrals here, not number of days.
May 15th, 2007 at 12:29 pm
“Matching has started”, now that has me excited!! My hopes are referrals coming in on June 1, how awesome that would be, but I am fully prepared for June 4. We are finally “next”!!!!!!!!!!
May 15th, 2007 at 12:55 pm
Hoping for “HON”
Half
Of
November
Wouldn’t that be grand?????
May 15th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
I have no idea how you November people can get anything done right now… no less sleep?
May 15th, 2007 at 2:08 pm
Sewhopeful22, I am am having a hard time getting
anything done. I will be eating,drinking,sleeping RQ
for the next 3-4 months..lol
Lid 11/18/05 for Allison Taylor
May 15th, 2007 at 2:13 pm
Be still my heart!
May 15th, 2007 at 2:22 pm
gulp…I have an aversion to roller coaster rides in my advanced years :o)
however this one has me very tempted…
LID 11/30/05
May 15th, 2007 at 2:23 pm
I am sleeping okay now – but talk to me in a month – LOL!
Tracy
LID 11/22/05
May 15th, 2007 at 2:39 pm
chanting….. HON HON HON HON HON HON HON
(half of November)
May 15th, 2007 at 2:39 pm
I am new to the site and have been following the posts for the last week or so. RQ, I must say I deeply appreciate your insight and the time you take in analyzing the information that you have. My husband and I both got a kick out of the attrition article that you posted yesterday. We like to deal in the facts and numbers and this post definitely supported that!
I love the idea that this group may have more referrals in an attempt to speed back up. Congrats to all of you with a November LID…..I can’t wait until I can say “we are next”!
Marci
LID 1/4/06
May 15th, 2007 at 2:58 pm
Woo-hoo !! I’m with you, Marci!
LID 1/13/06
May 15th, 2007 at 3:23 pm
Ok, You will have to excuse me, I am having a total “Brain Fart”. I thought November was supposed to be a huge month and it will take forever to get through it.
Am I orbiting another planet or what?
Waiting for Siobahn
3-28-06
May 15th, 2007 at 3:29 pm
We so want to travel with our friends, who are 11/10ers, so come on CCAA!!!! I cannot wait for more rumors, good ones that is, to start showing up. Let’s get the show on the road!
May 15th, 2007 at 3:37 pm
My large China-only agency told me yesterday that there is a “strong probability” that we will be matched in June (LID Nov.9). That is their expectation, but I still am trying not to get too excited.
As for sleep, the key is to stay so busy that you are just plain exhausted at night. It is working for me. I think I am more calm about this process right now than I have been for at least 14-15 months.
May 15th, 2007 at 4:33 pm
I join with my fellow November mom’s in hoping (dare I say dreaming) of a nice, full batch of referrals through the 21st. That would ensure that a brown eyed chubber would be in the mail to DH and me. Wow! To know that we’re even getting close to being considered in a batch….I never thought I’d see this day! I wrote in our blog today (http://ourlittlereddragon.blogspot.com) that we may be in labor. The next few weeks will be exciting/worrysome/mentally exhausting….the whole gamit. Good luck to everyone left in November.
May 15th, 2007 at 4:40 pm
Wow, I’m totally stunned that there MIGHT be a possibility of more than a few days in the next referral batch! Even a few weeks would be totally awesome…I think we all need a big boost now and that sure would do it! :) As for my and my hubby, a referral now or in another month is just anotherhuge event in our life. We are in the process of relocating to the East Coast since my hubby’s job is transferring us there. Talk about inconvenient timing! I’m just hoping we can everything ‘in place’ before we travel. Not knowing when we might is making life quite interesting, to say the least. Needless to say, we are so stressed out trying to find a new house and prep for relocating that it has kept my mind off the long wait for our referral. A referral this month or next would sure boost our spirits!! Crossing our fingers for all of us with NOV LIDs!!!
Kathi
LID 11/18/05
May 15th, 2007 at 5:48 pm
I’ve “crossed over.” I don’t sleep much no matter how I exhaust myself. I just lay in bed grinning and thinking, “If not June, then July!”
HON HON HON (I wonder if chanting will help me sleep?)
I am not so sure I have this “patience is a virtue” thingy optimized, so the cut-off will probably be 11/16. Sigh.
Boy, oh, boy!!! It will be so great to see November families getting their referrals!!!
LID 11/17/05
May 15th, 2007 at 6:09 pm
Oh PUHLEEEZZE throw us Nov LID’s a bone CCAA!!!!!!! After so many months of crushing rumours, crappy amounts of days referred and many, many tears, I REALLY want this one to be true.
LID 11/22/05
May 15th, 2007 at 6:33 pm
OK EVERYONE…TAKE ONE DEEP BREATH…HOLD IT…EXHALE…REPEAT SEVERAL TIMES IF NECESSARY. WE NEED TO JUST SIT BACK….. AND THIS IS ONE WAY WE CAN BE PREPARED FOR WHAT THE CCAA HAS TO BRING TO US WITH THE NEXT BATCH….A LITTLE DEEEP BREATHING CAN GO A LONG WAY. NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS IT BRINGS US ALL A CLOSER STEP TO OUR DAUGHTERS…SO REMEMBER ANY MOVEMENT IS +VE…
LID MARCH 17,2006
May 15th, 2007 at 6:37 pm
OK…EVERYONE…TAKE A DEEP BREATH…HOLD IT….EXHALE…THERE….DON’T YOU FEEL A LITTLE BETTER. THIS IS ONE WAY TO COPE WITH THE CCAA…TAKE IT ONE STEP AT A TIME WITH THE CCAA AND THE BATHCES THEY SEND US…ANY MOVEMENT IS +VE AND WE ARE ALL GETTING CLOSER TO OUR DAUGHTERS….BREATH EVERYONE..WE HAVE TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR DAUGHTERS WHEN THEY GET HERE..
LID MARCH 17,2006
May 15th, 2007 at 6:40 pm
I would like to see it true too (obviously). If they could get through half of November- maybe they can start doing atleast a half of a month each referral time- making the wait 24 months- give or tak a month. ( Not a numbers person by any means- but I think I have this right?!?) I cannot believe I am saying this- but I could handle 24 months right now!
LID 5/29
May 15th, 2007 at 7:06 pm
Hey Tassiegirl! I with you, a bone, a crumb, something! Even if they don’t make it to the 22nd, I will at least know we are next and not be guessing the next few months as usual.
LID 11/22/05
Debbie
May 15th, 2007 at 7:31 pm
I consulted my Magic 8 Ball (I admit I still have one and I do realize that it dates me!)–I asked it “Will referrals get through 11/21/05?” The first time it said, “As I see it Yes”, and the second time it said, “Absolutely”.
Gotta love the Magic 8 Ball!
May 15th, 2007 at 7:38 pm
I am having no trouble sleeping right now. Talk to me in 2 weeks though….I will be glued to the net looking for that darn stork!!!!!!
Pink
11/5/05!!!!!!
May 15th, 2007 at 7:54 pm
Gooooooooooooossshhhhhhhhhhhhh! I’ve always been scared to death of rollercoasters but this one is enticing me on for a ride! Thanks for all the great rumours!
LID 11/11/05
May 15th, 2007 at 8:34 pm
I am still in total AMAZEMENT, that us NOV LIDS are
the ones comming up. I still cant believe it!!!!!!
May 15th, 2007 at 8:50 pm
I am very exicted for all of you NOV LIDS…I wish each and every one of you, the best of luck…
May 15th, 2007 at 8:56 pm
I am not totally sure what this “miracle” batch means in the long run…but I am oh so happy for all you Nov. mommy and daddy’s to be!!!!
This is such a good rumor and one we have not had in a LONGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG time….whether it is true or not….as of right now…I am a believer….we sure are quick to be down with the bad ones…so why not ride high on the good ones.
Looking forward to seeing A LOT of babies this batch.
On a similar note….if this batch is a large one as far as days go….does this mean a large batch for babies…or is this just myst in our eyes…. and do we have any reason to believe that if this batch is large that it will continue????
~Linda
May 15th, 2007 at 10:38 pm
…..and when the call comes….it’s sheer bliss!
I’m so peaceful now. Floating on air…..
Good luck to all those who might be next. The pain of the wait doesn’t completely disappear, but now I know who she is, where she is, what she’s like and what she looks like, my heart can forget all about that wait.
Hoping that for all of you soon too. :)
Snick
dd Sunshine 6
dd Brilliance 11 months, in Fuling
May 16th, 2007 at 5:45 am
Please, please give us a big batch.
This part of month is the best part, hopes for a big batch is still high and rumours are good.
We don’t need any bad rumours or small batches this month!
May 16th, 2007 at 5:49 am
By the way! My agency that usually don’t say anything – said that they HOPE for a big batch this time.
May 16th, 2007 at 11:52 am
I pray that this is true!! Come on HON!! That would rock!!
LID 2-14-06
May 16th, 2007 at 10:43 pm
RQ any idea when TA’s will arrive for those of us who were just matched on 5/2?